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Tuesday, November 15

Another Mild November Day

Written by John DiPasquale:

Mild & mostly cloudy through much of today, but as the afternoon progresses we should be able to get some sun out from West to East for a little while before it sets. Temperatures today will range from 55 to 60. So yes, cooler than yesterday's mid 60s, but still a good ten degrees or so above average. Enjoy!

Tonight will be mainly quiet with more clouds returning later tonight into the start of Wednesday, as a cold front swings through. There's a slight risk for a spotty shower/sprinkle late tonight & Wednesday morning, but most of us should stay dry. Behind the cold front, it will turn more brisk & colder with temperatures dipping back into the 40s by day's end tomorrow after getting into the low & mid 50s for a midday high.

Tomorrow night into Thursday it will turn even colder with highs only reaching around 40 on Thursday with a gusty west wind accentuating the chill. A disturbance & trough will also likely set off a few snow showers & flurries, but nothing major. There may be some accumulating lake snows briefly later Thursday into early Thursday night East of lakes Erie & Ontario, but most of us will not see any accumulation.

High pressure will build in & shift just off to the South & East Friday afternoon setting the stage for a moderating breeze Friday. Highs, with some sun, should be in the mid to upper 40s to end the week, & warm well into the 50s to around 60 Saturday! In addition to the warmth Saturday, there will be some more sun!

Sunday will be brisk & a little cooler with a shower or two possible thanks to a cold front. Most of Sunday right now, though, looks dry. So overall, the weekend looks pretty good right now once again. What an overall stretch of weather we've been in lately!

Quite honestly, I have been looking for signs of a prolonged cold snap & heavier, measurable, widespread snows, but as of now I do not see much of anything too wintry through at least most of this month, if not beyond. We'll see. A lot can change in a short amount of time. Stay tuned. A reminder last November was quite tame with regards to wintry weather in November, but it turned quickly in December. Again, stay tuned.

Have a great day everyone!



  1. Yep, I agree. There is no way any prolonged cold / snowy pattern will setup with the NAO, AO and PNA in the phases that they are. Those indices continue to stay in the "warm phase" right through the end of November. That means, the AO and NAO would have to rapidly crash right around Dec. 1st just to reach a pattern change several days later. And there aren't any signs of a major crash of those indices. Moral of the story, winter will arrive late this year!

    John and / or Scott:

    When will you have your winter outlook presented? And, do you have any little thoughts you could throw at us regarding the upcoming winter? Should us snow-enthusiasts be concerned by the dominant pattern setting up so far?

  2. Snowfan, I don't understand your rationale? The NAO, AO, and PNA are clearly effecting the mountain west this November, so they are providing enough cold for some decent snows out there! However, I do agree that November is going to be an average month, but I guess my question to you is how late is a late arrival of winter?

  3. As a snowmobiler, I was worried about last winter after a fairly tepid November. I do not think there was any measurable snow last November. Also, the long range forecasts were all calling for a wimpy winter. Well, we all know how that turned out.

  4. A negative PNA is considered the "warm phase" for the east because a positive PNA results in a trough of cold air across the western U.S, while that same trough pumps up a ridge of mild air across the east. So, Yes, the west will have cold and snow, but that same pattern leaves us boring and mild. And the AO is positive right now, which, overall keeps any huge gushes of cold air deep into the U.S in any widespread fashion. All in all, as I noted, the indices are not in the right phases to bring OUR region cold and snow.

    Also, a late arriving winter would be considered our first measurbale snow not falling until mid December. We should be averaging measurable snow weeks before that time frame. It would be UN-usual for us to go without any snow accumulating on our lawns within just a week or so before Christmas. But, I think that may be the case this year...

    I hope that helps clear things up a little.

  5. I mis-typed a portion of my comment. Correction:

    "which, overall keeps any huge gushes of cold air from reaching deep into the U.S in any widespread fashion."

  6. As I said it will be a mild and boring winter! There will be no big storms hitting the metro this year.

  7. Models are already indicating a storm forming early to mid next week!

  8. That does clear things up Snowfan, and I agree that it may be awhile before we get a more negative Atlantic Osc, but I still think we can get some accumulating snow before then. And It looks as though the pattern is trying to break down a bit by the end of next week.

  9. Hey everyone it's November!!! Winter begins 12/21... We'll have our forecast on our weather special this Saturday night at 7:30 on channel 8!

    Set your DVR!

    Scott Hetsko


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