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Wednesday, November 30

Blustery with the November Nip Back



Written by John DiPasquale:


The feel of winter will be in the air today with temperatures dipping back into the 30s this afternoon & wind chills dropping into the 20s & low 30s! To add some ambiance there will be some snow & rain showers flying around too, mainly this afternoon & early evening. There may even be a slushy coating on some grassy surfaces & car tops. The best chance to pick up a coating to an inch or two will be across the hills South of Rochester. Once the trough clears the area this evening & overnight, the sky will clear some & temperatures will back off into the upper 20s to around 30, which will likely cause a bit of black ice to form on some side streets, parking lots & sidewalks late tonight & early Thursday. Keep this in mind when you head out early tomorrow morning to work & school. There may be a few slick in spots.


Overall, though, Thursday looks pretty good with more in the way of clouds blending with more & more intervals of sun later in the day especially so. Highs tomorrow will be in the low 40s with very little wind, which will make it feel better tomorrow compared to today for sure.


A weak cold front will swing through Friday with some clouds & possibly a passing rain/snow shower or two. Behind Friday's front, the temperatures will probably back off into the 30s later in the day with more sun developing to finish Friday.


Right now the weekend still looks quite good with a good deal of sun, a bit of breeze & highs solidly into the 40s on Saturday. On Sunday, we will likely see more clouds enter the sky, but it should remain mainly, if not totally, dry with a gusty south wind warming the temperatures possibly into the low 50s, if not a bit higher! However, a strong cold front will most likely move through Monday afternoon/night with some rain. Once the front passes a much colder air mass will follow & cause any rain to change to snow late Monday night into Tuesday the way it looks now. Of course, it is still 5 or 6 days out, so I'm sure many things will change between now & then regarding the timing & precipitation amounts. Stay tuned.


Have a nice day & try to stay warm everyone.




13 comments:

  1. is there a good possibility we will see a coating by afternoon w this short little disurbance rolling through!! more IMPORTANTLY regarding the monday night/tues timeframe..realize its 5 days out but is the possibility of seeing snow greater from synoptic precipation or more in the way of lake effect with this event..also john/scotty..what will the wind flow be..out of the nw/wnw perhaps the multi band variety???:) thanks alot guy!!! -from a much starved snow lover

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  2. There was talk about a storm next week, now they are only talking about a cold front???????

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  3. FROM THE NWS:

    EXPECT A PROGRESSION TOWARDS MORE
    CONSISTENT COLD AND SNOW BY LATE DECEMBER OR THE START OF JANUARY.-- End Changed Discussion --

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  4. Michele in PenfieldNovember 30, 2011 at 4:59 PM

    I was wondering what people in this blot think about this website:

    http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2011/09/1st-official-2011-2012-winter-forecast_24.html

    I am an avid weather follower, especially during the winter, but I admit I am a weather novice and love this blog to help me in my learning curve.

    Is it a "good" website to check out or not? Just looking for some opinions.

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  5. Michele in PenfieldNovember 30, 2011 at 4:59 PM

    Opps - I meant to say people in this blog..........

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  6. Very thorough discussion and all those components will come into play. The question this year will be "How strong and persistent will a negative NAO be?" Our entire Winter will hinge on that question. If you watched my Winter forecast, I did mention above average snow for the lake effect areas in the North and Northeast. I do think that this year we will have more up and down temperature fluctuations. January could be a particularly hard month.

    Scott

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  7. I still think the middle of next week needs to be watched. Just my opinion based on several models. Not sure what everyone else thinks.

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  8. Yes it does, I said that last night too.

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  9. Scott, when you say January could be hard month, do you mean hard for winter lovers to stomach, or cold and snowy?

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  10. I guess I am missing something. I do not see much of anything for next week on the models.

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  11. Next week definitely looks like it could shape up into something...if not for us, then maybe for the east coast. We will see...at least now there is something to watch!

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  12. Yes, a lot of ingredients coming together for a storm next week, but the big question is exactly when & where. Time will tell.

    John

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  13. No doubt it will be South and East and miss us as always.

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