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Tuesday, December 20

Seasonably Chilly, but Quiet Today



Written by John DiPasquale:


Another very mild month so far! 5th warmest through yesterday, but may drop a bit today before we climb again tomorrow & Thursday! Temperatures today will be seasonably chilly despite a good deal of sun this afternoon. Highs will be in the low to mid 30s.


Tonight clouds will increase with a brief period of a light icy mix possible at the onset of the precipitation late tonight before it quickly flips to a bit of light rain/drizzle by 4 or 5 am, if not sooner, as milder air moves in from the South.


32 comments:

  1. So I googled that 1889 winter. I found it was called the "hard winter" in Washington State..with foot upon foot of snow from November until April. In fact I read they still had 4 feet of snow on the ground in April!

    From the Midwest to the East Coast it was called a year without a winter. Peach trees were blooming in Ohio in mid January. Michigan was talking about building plants to manufacture ice because none of the lakes had frozen over to harvest ice from at the end of January. Then winter came in late February and lasted the entire month of March. With the largest storm of the year occurring on March 28th.

    Has no bearing on anything current but with the weather so boring I found it an interesting read.

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  2. I am not giving up yet the 12z EURO still has us with snow and I believe in it. I think the NAM and GFS will come back with a storm in the next runs. I am staying positive for a white Christmas.

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  3. get mad Andrew - Get Mad!! need the old Andrew luck

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  4. Not sure what you are talking about Scott just said high pressure and 40 for the weekend

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  5. I feel like the patterns are stubborn during la nina events. If the pattern changes from this constant southeastern ridge, maybe it will be just as stubborn in our favor with constant cold and snow as Caledonia was alluding to!

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  6. You watch....as soon as this pattern breaks, and all of the snowstorms start lining up one after another....they will all miss us to the south and east. Won't that just be adding insult to injury!

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  7. The NWS out of Buffalo calls for not much of anything for Western, NY.

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  8. No I said 36 Saturday and near 40 on Sunday. Just to be clear. It's true that EURO has a storm along coast Sunday night but I doubt it. Until I see a significant and consistent change, I'll bank on a green Christmas for most. Only exception might be along the lake.

    Scott

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  9. Scott, do you think we can salvage at least a month of cold and snow out of this winter!? Because you and your team are scaring me with your grim forecasts, which seem to have been jaded by this ruthless ridging pattern.

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  10. My apologies Scott I was just trying to figure out Andrew after seeing your forecast at 4

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  11. Oh no problem at all... I do think we'll get some Winter here more like late Jan-Feb. This isn't all that unusual. Same start to Winter just 5 years ago then nearly 100" of snow in 7 weeks.

    Scott

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  12. Thanks Scott, that makes me feel a little better! Maybe we can even get March to actually have some snow this year, but only time will tell!

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  13. I see that AccuWeather (more like AccuNever) has our temperatures plummeting starting Jan 2 (highs in the low 20s, lows in the single digits). What is driving their thinking? I hope they are correct!

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  14. Pretty sure that Accuweather long range forecast is GFS driven. Only the first three or four days are adjusted by humans and the rest is pretty much exactly what the latest GFS run says. That's why the long range on there changes almost daily.

    That is my understanding anyway.

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  15. I am not buying it yet. I think the GFS will come back with the storm again. I am buying the EURO particularly if the next couple runs verify what it showed today. I am sorry I disagree with Scott we will get snow either Christmas or Monday, how much to be determined. That is my opinion respectfully submitted.

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  16. Andrew you say you think the GFS will come back but why? I say the baroclinic zone is too weak for significant storm development along the coast Friday or Christmas. Also there is NO upper level support nearby. What are your meteorological reasons other than hoping the EURO is right. Even if the EURO is right with both storms, we get T-2" snowfalls.

    I'm not trying to beat you up but actually present science on this blog instead of just looking at the latest model and going with it. If a meteorologist foretasted this way, he or she would be out of a job and deservedly so.

    BAROCLINIC ZONE: A region in which a temperature gradient exists on a constant pressure surface. Baroclinic zones are favored areas for strengthening and weakening systems.

    Scott

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  17. Easy Scott, we are not here to say were right and we know more than you! We are just trying to stay positive and have hope for a white Christmas. Andrew said nothing wrong and disagreed with you respectfully! No one here is a meteorologist nor do we understand forecasting to the degree you do so try not to be so harsh on criticizing the bloggers next time!

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  18. I think Scott presented some good insight. I don't think he was beating up or being harsh on anyone.

    From a casual observer

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  19. Let me rephrase, when Scott said to back it up with scientific proof when you make a prediction, it was discouraging to me only b/c I don't know that much about models to begin with. I feel like I shouldn't say anything if I can't back it up, which doesn't sound too fun to me! Not saying I dislike Scott now or this blog for that matter, I just personally felt that it was a little strict to say that.

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  20. Wow Bman, I can't win on this blog. Andrew is the one making a prediction so I was just hoping we can have some discussion as to why. I like Andrew 2.0 and my intent isn't to "show off" but to do what I know how to do which is forecast a bit. If you are looking just for model to model guesses, I guess I'm not the guy for you.

    Scott

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  21. Scott, I clearly misunderstood your comment and I do apologize for making you look like a bad guy. Not trying to make up for what I said but your are Rochester's best and I had no intention to make you look bad or cocky or rude. I'm not going to comment for a bit as I feel like I crossed the line. Once again, I am sorry for the comment I made and hope everyone gets along just fine for the rest of this blogs existence!

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  22. No worries, Bman. Please don't worry. I'd like everyone to have a great discussion on the blog including you! Good night...

    Scott

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  23. I think I will do some yard work this weekend. LOL

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  24. Reading through this blog, I don't think anybody "crossed the line". Heated discussions can be good. But we have to keep in mind that Scott Hetsko is a professional who has MANY more tools that he looks at than the average person who looks at the GFS or EURO. There are ensembles, indices, and tools such as BUFKIT. There is also a thing called "pattern recognition", that seasoned meteorologists like Scott use to guide his forecasts. As a meteorologist, Scott doesn't have the luxury of cherry picking a single run of the GFS model that looks good for a storm, and running with it in his forecast. That is not a useful or accurate way to forecast professionally. It's fun for the average person, and that's fine. Have fun with it! But understand that, as a weather blog administered by a professional team of meteorologists, Scott must interject to clear up potentially incorrect or misleading information. Jumping on every run of the GFS or EURO - while fun for the average person who is NOT responsible for forecasting weather to the public - should always be advised against due to its unreliability. And as the average person, it can only lead to MANY let downs when the models flip flop. Don't put yourself through that...stay calm and look at several runs of several computer models. And don't trust any model showing a storm beyond 3 or 4 days out!

    David

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  25. I have consulted with my NOAA models and I am guessing we could be in store for a white Christmas. Maybe no more than two inches of the fluffy white stuff, but my hunch is that the brown we see on the ground right now will be white by Sunday!

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  26. GFS STILL SHOWS NOTHING FOR THIS WEEKEND. WE NEED TO KEEP ON DREAMING!!!!!!!!!!!

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  27. You never know but clearly there is no scientific backing to support anything. I was just trying to voice what I feel was going to happen and yet it blows up on the blog. I am not questioning the experts was just trying to be respectful. Talk about can not win on this blog. I guess it is best to just go away and leave this to the experts.

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  28. NOAA says they are aware that the AO page is having issues. Not sure what that means..initialization? I may be off base but I'm thinking our best chance for winter type weather is that polar vortex breaking down and splitting. The forecast in the medium term says that isn't happening...in fact it's ridiculously positive.

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  29. I hear ya Andrew. You cannot give your opinion on this blog without being scrutinized. That has to change.

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  30. I can't believe it is raining AGAIN. It was cloudy and dreary AGAIN yesterday and raining again today! It always rains in Rochester. Will spring EVER come?

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  31. I think all of us snow lovers are frustrated b/c there hasn't been ANY snow. Don't get down on the blog everyone. I really don't think any of you were being picked on or scrutinized. As a snow lover, we just want to hear those magic words...........a big storm is going to hit.....and we haven't. I REALLY enjoy this blog during the winter and for the most part all of you do have insightful posts and of course, having meterologists like Scott H. and crew blogging along with us is GREAT! I would hate to see everyone else's opinions stop b/c they are afraid to be scrutinized, and look forward to all of your entries. Even if we don't get any snow in the near future, its kind of fun to think maybe..........we may get some.......cause its all we have to think about folks!!! Keep posting what you feel, of course in a respectful way! Does anyone know how to do a 'SNOW DANCE'? LOL!

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  32. @ Andrew and Bman:
    I really think Scott was just trying to generate some discussion. Some people come on this blog and use it casually. Others get into more scientific and detailed discussions and make predictions at times. I highly doubt Scott would have posted something like that towards someone who casually comes on the blog and doesn't know the first thing about reading models. It is nice to have some higher level discussion at times, and Andrew, you usually have seemed to have some knowledge/data to back up your claims, more than a layman would anyway. Unfortunately text takes all tonality out of a conversation so people will interpret into the words what they will, but I think all that was happening here was the attempt to have a more in-depth discussion about what's going down (or not). I mean come on, where else can the news 8 team go and talk about baroclinic zones without people looking askance at them? It is natural for someone rooted in science to ask, 'what evidence is there to support this claim?' when someone says 'this will happen'. Expect it if you are going to make predictions - or just flat out say I have no evidence, but I am going with my gut - that should cover it.

    P.S. the new Andrew has been cool, don't go Mr. Hyde on us now!

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