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Monday, December 19

WHAT HAPPENED TO DECEMBER?

Written by: Scott Hetsko


A picture is worth a thousand words. Just compare the North America jet stream last December with this year and you begin to see why they are so different! Last year there was a huge blocking high pressure in the North Atlantic which forced bitter cold airmasses from Eastern Canada to pour into the Northeast. Storms also tracked further East along the coast which kept us on the cold, snowy side. When all was said and done, we had 46.5" of record snow last December.

The complete opposite is the case this December. The jet stream is sending storms into the Southwest while our flow has been zonal. Big storms can't form on weak temperature gradients that area associated with a West to East jet. We need the dips to make the weather fun. I don't expect this pattern to break through January 10th.







25 comments:

  1. NOT GOOD NEWS. WE COULD BE GOING FOR OUR LEAST SNOWIEST WINTER.

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  2. What does that mean for this weekends snow chance?

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  3. Scott,
    I suppose you could say that a pattern like this isn't particularly unusual, but rather what is unusual about it is the persistence. I've read that the MJO has been very active, and that has changed the jet stream across the northern hemisphere. I've heard that the lack of a positive Siberian snow cover anomaly during October this year has reduced the ability to form blocking. I've read that this somehow has to do with la nina. I've read that it has to do with the PDO going into a cold phase. Whatever the reason may be (perhaps it's all of those reasons combined), do you see ANY sign whatsoever that this pattern will truly break looking forward? And I don't mean these little two or three day periods of cold and snow followed by warmth. I mean a FUNDAMENTAL pattern change. Is this our winter this year, or will the "dam break" so to speak eventually, and we'll get paid back later in the winter?

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  4. I don't make frequent comments on here like many, but those who know me, have heard me say this a zillion times.....and I have said it a few times on this blog...THE PENDULUM ALWAYS SWINGS THE OTHER WAY! We had tons of snow last year but remember, no real crippling storms. It takes just a couple crippling storms to get us right back in the snow race. And we still have more than 3 months to get such storms.

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  5. For all the reasons you state, it's easy to be pessimistic about our Winter. If we begin to see Siberia get more snow the next 2-3 weeks then perhaps we can look forward to some Winter for late January and February. Blocking is a slow process which is why I don't think Winter really won't turn on until mid January at the earliest. What's funny is that this is EXACTLY what I was think LAST Winter would be like but a strongly negative NAO killed my forecast.

    Scott Hetsko

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  6. Scott, any thoughts about Christmas day Storm.

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  7. So winter will be over before it starts it looks like.

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  8. I don't think much of that "storm" for Christmas weekend. Looks like a quick moving weak inverted trough which won't hang around long enough to create much snow if any.

    Scott

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  9. Thanks Scott. LOL. Can you give us any more bad news??? Mama Mia!!!

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  10. Scott, that strong blocking last year, and the year before, killed MANY meteorologists forecasts.

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  11. Depends on what type of pattern sets up after the current one broke down... doesn't it weatherdan? You could potentially stuff a lot of winter into the 9 weeks between the middle of January and the middle of March.

    I was thinking/hoping it would break down sooner than that myself. It is what it is.

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  12. Im going to go play in the sprinkler in my front yard.

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  13. Scott, When you say that you don't see this pattern breaking through Jan 10th, is there any indication that we will see a bit colder temps? I'm hoping that at least the ski resorts will have more opportunity to make snow.

    Thanks
    Andy

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  14. If you look back historically at the top 10 warmest December's on record, the average annual snow is roughly 83". If you look back on the top 10 least snowiest December's on record, the average annual snow is about 74". Now obviously there are outliers both on the high and low side, but again, these are averages. Interesting to note that the winter of 57'-58' was on the list, and had the snowiest month on record with a whopping 64.8"! So it is safe to say that one month can literally account for a majority of the snow.

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  15. Last year was cold and we mised all the storms to our South and East. 90% of the 127 inches we received last year was lake effect for areas North of The Thruway. This year the storms have gone South and East or North and West. When are we ever going to see a pattern where we see actual snowstorms again and cold. It seems that does not happen anymore. We always have to rely on Lake effect for our snow. Areas South of thruway get pretty much nothing.

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  16. The GFS is spitting out some good precip for Christmas day, but will it be cold enough for snow?????

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  17. Sorry weatherdan not seeing the good precip rather not much at all but there will be cold air. I think it is still to early to tell better idea Thursday. However not good that Scott sees not much with this storm and he is usually right on.

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  18. Yeah, I hear ya. He is the expert.

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  19. From National Weather Service (Buffalo).........A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE NATION AT THE START OF THIS HOLIDAY PERIOD
    WILL TRANSITION INTO A PHASED +PNA PATTERN AS RIDGING WILL FINALLY
    BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE
    CANADIAN AIR TO DIVE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WHILE THE AIR
    IN THIS COURSE REGION WILL NOT BE ABNORMALLY COLD...IT WILL BE COLD
    ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAKE SNOWS AND POSSIBLY SYNOPTIC SNOW ALONG THE
    MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS. AS A RESULT...THERE IS A HIGHER
    CHANCE FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS.

    What do you all think about this statement?

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  20. I think there is nothing to get excited about. The lastest NAM had the storm go out to sea and it is just not good. The set-up is not favorable for snow in the northeast. We just will have to wait for the pattern change and that could be a while. It really stinks for outdoor snow lovers and people who make a living with plowing.

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  21. The 12z GFS has nothing not even a storm. As Scott has said through out the models past two days. They are not even worth looking at because they are really bad.

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  22. That is throw out the models

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  23. Yep, the storm is gone on the models. And actually, the latest GFS has taken away a lot of the cold air through the next week. Cold air will only be marginal for lake effect. And I just read the Joe Bastardi says January 1 through January 20 will be like a "blow torch" on the eastern U.S. Very mild! We may go through Much of January having still nothing more than a few inches for the entire season thus far. Incredible!

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  24. ON A POSITIVE NOTE, IT WILL BE GOOD ON OUR HEATING BILLS.

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  25. I know the guy I gave $190 to plow my driveway is happy---so far. No gas, no wear and tear no getting up at 2AM. And if there's ever $190 I'd love to see wasted it's this one. Hope he never comes. 99.5% of people over 60 are happy too and probably 95% of those commuting to work everyday.
    My "prediction", we are going to get killed in late Jan/ Feb--probably end season in 90" range with most falling in those 6 weeks. Hope I'm wrong would love to see it stay like this all winter.
    Beautiful winter day today--enjoy!!

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