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Tuesday, February 7


Written By: Scott Hetsko

This winter comes in spurts and another episode is coming this weekend. A strong cold front will dive South from Central Ontario on Friday evening. Temperatures behind this front will plummet to around 10 degrees by Saturday morning. While I do expect some lake effect snow to develop, the airmass behind the front appears to be too dry for any real significant snowfall in the area. SURPRISE!

Perhaps a better shot at some accumualting but localized snow will arrive with a secondary front on Sunday. This front will be accompanied by a slow moving surface low in Southern Ontario. Cyclonic flow around that low may help develop lake snows Sunday and Sunday night although it's too early to say where exactly this far out.

Rochester has recorded an incredible 25.5" of snow this entire winter! This is the slowest start in decades. I still think we can double that amount by the time March is over. The winter season is LONG around here!


  1. If it's going to be cold it better snow, who knows how long the cold will stick around. I predict we will get our 2 weeks of winter before the season is over, but that's all we will get. Disappointing season for us snow lovers, but on the optimist side it's been nice not to trudge through the messy sandy/salty snow for work and errands. I'm ready for that 2 weeks of winter anytime now mother nature!

  2. I'm sure we will get a storm or two this month and next month. It's been really warm and the gulf has plenty of moisture to offer!

  3. The whole LES is also really a huge disappoinment. You would think with the lake waters being so warm that someone would get blasted by an event. It has been horrible. Scott did a great job explaining the elements needed to get a good LES snow event. Amazing we have not once had those factors come together with the really warm lake waters. But it goes with the whole winter.

  4. Still holding out hope on some winter weather from here on out, maybe just wishful thinking. I was wondering if anyone knew the last time we had only 25" of snow through Jan. 31st. I know Scott always likes those comparisons. Go CUSE!!!


  5. This would be a pretty normal winter for the period 1930- 1955. very few winters over 100" back then. Mostly 60- 70". Must've been global warming.
    The living hell of consistent 100+" winters really didn't start around here until about 1990.
    Hopefully, we'll get into a pattern more like 70 years ago. I doubt it but I hope so.
    Anyway this winter is hardly abnormal. If we end up under 40" total for the winter THAT would be abnormal (not unprecedented). Ain't gonna happen.

  6. Just for example
    1941-42 12" at end of Jan
    1943-44 15" at end of Jan
    1948-49 26" "
    1952-52 20" "
    1961-62 26" "

  7. Thanks for the info. Puts thing into perspective a bit. Weatherdan would be in the r-wing if he lived around here back in the 40's.



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