SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING
Written By: Scott Hetsko
There is little doubt that low pressure tracking through the Great Lake will produce a period of snow this weekend. The debate over the next few model runs will be whether or not this low will phase with low pressure tracking near the East Coast on Sunday.
It's important to note that only the past few GFS runs predict a snowstorm close enough for us to get significant snowfall.
My concern is over the lack of a strong thermal gradient near the coast which would strengthen the argument FOR a snowstorm here which the EURO and CANADIAN runs seem to agree with at this point. All this really means is that while I do have snow in the forecast for Sunday, we'll need until Friday to start really thinking about how much and where! Have fun talking about this one!
...and let it begin lol...
ReplyDeleteExactly Adam!
Deletebring me snow to plow and snowmobile. thx :)
ReplyDeleteThe NAO is positive and trending toward neutral which favors a ridge track for us to get in the sweetspot for a big storm. Just worth tracking.
ReplyDeleteEven though the NAO is trending toward neutral, that will take over 4 days to occur and there isn't an instant reaction in the atmosphere. A blocking ridge would take several days to a week or more to develop and strengthen. If this storm gives us sizable snow, it would have more to do with a favorable thermal gradient. Sorry Andrew but that's just not a correct correlation.
ReplyDeleteScott
can't wait for weatherdan's annoying comments and miserable reaction on Monday when he has a problem with whatever happens
ReplyDeleteSo Scott, your saying we need that low near michigan to pull in colder air earlier that the low tracking up the coast arrives?
ReplyDeleteIt would help if that low were tracking more Southeasterly verses Easterly. A digging trough would amplify the Southern low and give us a better chance of getting significant snow fall. That's why I remain skeptical on GFS. If by Friday all the data points in the same general direction, then we could be in for some fun!
DeleteMy wish is to have a blog without the rude comments. Let's just talk weather please.
ReplyDeleteAndrew did call this, back on 2/12! Please leave weatherdan alone! I enjoy reading what he has to say. The regulars on this board make it fun to read!
ReplyDeleteScott, if that storm takes the path the models are showing and the bulk of the precip. misses us, do you think the 850 is cold enough to support significant lake snow? We will definitely have a source of moisture.
ReplyDeleteI could be way off here.. but that looks like a setup where I get all excited about snow only to have all the energy transfer to the coastal. Then I stand around looking at the sky wondering what happened.
ReplyDeleteLike many I've been waiting all season for a nice snow storm. I think this is one that Rochester may get. Why do I think this? Because I will be about 2,000 miles away from NY when this storm is due to hit, so I will sure to miss out on the fun. And while I'll be someplace warm and sunny, I will be watching on my smartphone with a little envy.
ReplyDeleteHopefully we can crank one out in early March as well :)
Enjoy the storm if we get it.
Andy
Sorry Scott there was misinformation put on by me. What I was trying to say and still may be wrong is with the NAO where it is this storm with not be a southern slider where it goes out to sea. I believe it will transfer and form a LP that will move more northwesterly than predictied. I believe we will be in the sweetspot from the storm and also get a great deal of lake enhanced and LES snow behind the system. Just an opinion from a non expert.
ReplyDeleteWhen will weatherdan realize that people are just breaking his stones? Weatherdan, we all love you.
ReplyDeleteWhat happened to David? He is knowledgable what does he think about this potential storm? Also what is your latest thought weatherdan about the potential?
ReplyDeleteI love you guys and Gals. I would love to wake up tomorrow and see the GFS still forecasting a BIG storm only move it further west. I would be even more happy if the Euro came in line with the GFS. We will see.
ReplyDeleteI was reading the NWS out of NYC and Philadelphia and they mention rain for them. They all say the same thing and that is there is much uncertainty in the models.
The NWS out of Buffalo is siding with the Euro and a Southern Storm since the GFS is the outlier.
ReplyDeleteScott, what is your gut feeling at this point with regards to Sunday's storm track. I know we are do for a big storm, one of these years. I can remeber countless storms tracking to our east leaving us with just a little more dissapointment. How does the speed of the clipper and the placement of their possible merge affect our forecast. How is this setup different form a low transfering its energy to the coast. Is the current GFS model run a setup that would often lead to Roc getting big time snows or just a modest snow.
ReplyDeleteMy gut tells me forget about it! Not going to happen, another close call. No strong thermal gradient. Scott
DeleteI hope we don't have to put up with a weekly disaster for the next 5-6 weeks. last week was no fun. 4-6" is annoying but manageable, these one footers are exhausting and get old real fast.
ReplyDeleteAs an FYI, most of the NWS discussions out of diferent locations in the NE are throwing the GFS solution out.
ReplyDeleteLast weekends snow was great. I got 15 hours over time on sunday alone and the visability that morning was ZERO. What could be more exciting than plowing in a Big storm.
ReplyDeleteP.S. For all you snow haters. If you dont like the snow, and you cant drive in it please stay out of Hamlin. You are are annoying on all levels.
Bring it on!! I may have sold the plow but I still like to throw it in 4 wheel and play in the snow!! I think it would be fun to take my girls out for a nice drive in the snow. We are moving south soon and I would love for them to see a good snow storm before we go. Plus, my friend Ginger and her husband are dying to get their sleds out!!
ReplyDelete00Z GFS now in line with other models...
ReplyDeleteYep. As we all figured with the way this winter has gone the GFS is now taking the Southern track. Unbelievable, but not surprised.
ReplyDeleteSnowlovers just cannot win this year!!!!
ReplyDeleteYes I was wrong and we will be left out again. For the last few years we no longer can get a big storm it is what it is. Sorry all you winter weather lovers back to this blog being quiet.
ReplyDeleteI'm counting on a triple phase bomb.
ReplyDeleteNext week we are back into the 40's with another RAIN system by mid-week. What happend with February being colder and snowier? Not happening. The Rochester area got lucky last weekend with lake effect, but that is all gone now and we are back to bare ground. Most areas away from the lake have seen very little snow this year. The Rochester airport is around 40" which is still pathetic. I am venting again. Sorry!!!
ReplyDeleteWe need to start a support group for snowlovers.
ReplyDeleteLOL
I agree weatherdan, feeling your same frustration. Why do I allow myself to get even remotely excited? I said it last week that winter is over, done with, so why do I even try to keep holding on to hope?? I do watch channel 10 as well...don't worry Fox news is still my favorite!, and he was so sure after Feb. 4th we would be much more cold and snowier. So much for that!
ReplyDeleteI am with Caladonia still not ruling out a triple phase bomb. Do not give up hope yet still 3 days out think it will move more north than currently projected.
ReplyDeleteIt is over is has less than 1% chance of getting to Rochester. Suppressed south and even if it moved north it would be to far east to impact us. I think Ginger said it best this winter is done!
ReplyDeleteEven Channel 10 is saying it's going to be a near miss - poor guys, they probably already had cameras stationed at Wegmans to capture shots of people stockpiling rations. If THEY are not hyping it, then there's nothing to hype.
ReplyDeleteI noticed that too--if they aren't hyping it it must be a real long shot.
DeleteI was very happy to hear Scott's forecast tonight--no big mess just flurries, fine with me.
Latest GFS way south and east this one is officially done for western NY. Andrew was once again wrong like he has always been. Scott was once again right like he has always been. Sorry snow lovers wait until next January.
ReplyDeleteKinda funny I'm sitting here trying to find any reason for it to snow here and it recently snowed in North Africa. Or maybe it isn't funny at all?
ReplyDeleteCAN SOMEONE EXPLAIN TO ME WHY, FOR SEVERAL, SEVERAL YEARS, THESE STORMS DO NOT CURL UP THE COAST INLAND. WHAT IS STOPING THEM FROM DOING THIS? THEY ALWAYS GO OUT TO SEA.
ReplyDeleteSCOTT, JOHN, STACEY CAN YOU PLEAE ANSWER THIS QUESTION FOR ME.
THANKS
Harps
ReplyDeleteWeatherDan,
ReplyDeleteIt is called Climate Change.
Hi Everyone,
ReplyDeleteWell, it's another rainy, milder than average day in the winter of 2011-12. Yes, it will turn a bit colder for tomorrow & the weekend with a little snow possible over the weekend, but the storm potential is looking pretty weak for us right now Saturday night into Sunday. Keep your heads up snow lovers. You'll get your lovin from mama nature at some point.
2
Hi Weatherdan,
It's all about the jet stream. If the jet stream doesn't set up just right the storm either hooks to the west or goes wide right, to far east. I know...I grew up in the Seneca Falls area & remember back in the early to mid 90s getting pounded one after another in those winters, including the Super Storm of 93. We had some incredible winters back then! We have had some good storms over the last 10 years, but the last 3 or 4 years it has been like pulling teeth to get a real classic in here. You can thank the jet stream. The northern branch & southern need to team up in the right spot, & once they do then you get the biggie. Most indications are for this weekend that it's not going to happen for us, but last winter a big storm was predicted to miss Eastern New York by a long shot, but then 36 to 48 hours out the projected track of the storm changed significantly. We ended up getting almost a good 8 to 12" in Albany out of that one in late December, while areas just east received 2+ feet! Now I'm not saying that's going to happen obviously, but my point is that things can change pretty dramatically in a short time. It doesn't happen often, but when you are talking about a complex storm set up with possible phasing, a small change can make a big difference! Look at it this way, if it doesn't happen this weekend, or even this winter, we will make up for it sometime next winter. Mother Nature always balances things out, good or bad. Stay tuned eveyone.
John DiPasquale
John,
ReplyDeleteI want to thank you for personally reaching out to answer a question from a 12 year old. Kudos to you my friend!
Weatherdan-seriously, how old are you??
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately John it has not changed the last several winters here. Mother nature has not balanced things out we are no longer known for snow in Rochester. If we did not have the lakes our snow would be minimal the last several winters. Storms miss us east or go west and give us rain in the winter. The jet stream has not changed for our benefit in the last several years.
ReplyDeleteIf a storm is going to miss us i wish they would always miss east. This muddy winter season really stinks. How can people be a fan of this winter. Green and muddy yards, never frozen. I work out side alot and I would take the teens over today weather all winter long. If its cold out you can allways put another layer on. This winter has been terrible for out door work. Even if it doesn't snow this year i wish it would atleast get cold enough to freeze up the mud. I cant take much more of this warm winter Rain. We get enough of it in April. Very dissapointing winter. Weatherdan i feel your pain and much more. We have five big dogs and i am SICK OF WASHING THEM everyday. I think they hate this winter even more than us.
ReplyDeleteI am officially issuing a whining weatherman warning!!
ReplyDeleteOoops, that was suppose to say whining weatherdan warning (my comp. used spellcheck for me).
ReplyDeleteIf the whining weatherdan warning comes with snow and cold temps i will take it.
ReplyDeleteP.S. I am also very tired of washing my 10 wheeler at work when not plowing with it. So i will also resort to whining to unload some tension that this winter has brought me.
The blog has gone from a great deal of possible excitement the other day to dead silence. Sorry you snowlovers but winter is done! If you want to call what we went through winter. I love it! All you people who love snow and cold need your heads examined. Why on earth would you be hoping for a big snowstorm? So happy your winter has been awful.Bring on the spring and summer ha ha!
ReplyDeleteNegative Anonymous, why on earth do you live in upstate NY if you don't like snow?
ReplyDeleteSome of us do not have choice as to where to live. Do not get mad at me because all of you love snow and there will not be one big storm all winter.
ReplyDeleteGinger - I believe anonymous is also known as the bitter kodak retiree. He likes to agitate. Probably inhaled too much methylene chloride or absorbed to much silver nitrate.
ReplyDeleteIt looks like next weeks storm is going to our West. It is like NY is a goalie and when a storm wants to come at us we deflect it to the West or South and East. LOL
ReplyDeleteResponding to snowhater from above- I would say last weeks storm was somewhat significant (although it didn't stick around). Given that we are half way through Feb., I think it is safe to say that we aren't out of the woods yet (in regard to having a substantial snowstorm).. Lord know we are due for a brutal March. March of 99 was the last good one I remember. We had several storms in March during the 90's.....Ahhhh, the good ol 90's.......
ReplyDeleteJM