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Friday, October 26

Back to Reality this Weekend - Then Sandy...

Written by John DiPasquale:

Happy Friday!  The weather will be nice, but turn cooler later this afternoon in the wake of a cold front that is expected to pass through during the early to mid afternoon hours.  Behind the front there will also be some more in the way of clouds spilling in to finish the day.  Temperatures will fall out of the 70s to near 60 by the early to mid evening hours, which is still pretty good for this time, but you will definitely feel the difference by day's end!  There's also a slight risk for a shower or two late today & this evening, but the best chance for that will be to the west.  So if you have plans out & about this evening with a haunted hayride or watching high school playoff football/soccer you should stay mainly dry, but you may want to have an umbrella handy to be safe.

Late tonight into Saturday some steadier rains will slowly build eastward, but much of Saturday should not be too wet, with the bulk of the steadier rain not moving in until late Saturday afternoon & night.  Sunday will be blustery & rainy with temperatures struggling to reach 50.

Then early to mid next week will be dependent on Sandy.  At this point, there are two scenarios that could occur.  The more likely one is the top picture with a landfall near the Delmarva Pennisula late Monday/Monday night.  The second scenario would be a landfall near NYC/Long Island late Tuesday.  Either track will be a very bad end result for whoever takes a direct hit from Sandy between about Baltimore & Southern New England with hurricane force winds, coastal flooding, general flooding & beach erosion near the coast. 

The impacts here in WNY, including Rochester, will likely be significant winds & rain.  The amount & strength of the rain & wind, respectively, are still up in the air, as the event is still 3 or 4 days out.  Stay tuned for updates through the weekend with Scott, Stacey & I into early next week for the latest on this intense storm.

    

18 comments:

  1. I really do not think this is going to be that bad for Rochester. Please relax and have a great weekend. Do not rush to Wegmans if this was winter then you should rush to Trader Joes. That was just a little joke. But seriously this is going more easterly not NW. We are ok!

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  2. I hope you are right Andrew. With all the rain they are forecasting, we could be canoeing down our streets.

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  3. It is a shame this blog is dead because it is just a rain event not snow. It is a shame because this could be a potentially dangerous storm that could take out a lot of people's power for days.

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  4. I agree. The latest forecast has this storm slamming right into us! I wish Scott would give us his thoughts.

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  5. Last summer a hurricane moved up the east coast people said no big deal. Not much wind damage little coastal flooding. Its remainants stalled just inland and places like Binghamton NY had record flooding. My relatives there said it was the Five hundred year flood. Prolonged Heavy rain is a huge deal. Much more destructive than a few feet of snow. It will be a question of who receives the flooding rains in this storm. I would not rule out western NY at this time. Lucky for lake shore communities the lake is very low this year. There could be some stiff north winds in this one. If GfS verifies we will be in for good one. NOT HYPING IT UP just looking at many CONSECUTIVE model runs, I dont see this storm staying offshore anymore.

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  6. Long duration rain event with winds 40 MPH or so is a big deal to me. Nothing like what they may see along the coast.. but something to keep an eye on anyway.

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  7. Sorry guys this is Scott. I've been SUPER busy as you might imagine in forecasting and preparing on how we cover this storm. No doubt that this will be a major rain and wind maker for the mid-Atlantic states. Rochester will get 2-4" of rain from Sunday through Tuesday time frame. At this point, I would be most concerned with flooding in the Southern Tier river areas as well as along Black and Oatka creeks. No way to know for sure how much will fall here but it's certainly going to cause significant problems in Eastern PA, NJ, MD, DE states.

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  8. Yeah if the power is out, the power is out. Doesn't matter to me if the wind that knocked it out was 40mph or 60mph.

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  9. Michele in PenfieldOctober 26, 2012 at 6:01 PM

    Scott & other's, just curious IF it were cold enough to SNOW, how much snow would pile up (considering 2-4 inches of rain).

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  10. Depends on the temperature..but I believe 10 inches of snow for every inch of rain around 30 degrees. I could be wrong.

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  11. Hamlin "ARK" BuilderOctober 26, 2012 at 6:24 PM

    Typically the ratio is 10*1 or 12*1 so if the air were cold enough 20-40 inchs or 24-48inchs or maybe more. NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

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  12. This really could be bad if all this verifies. This storm size and strength could be massive and we could get a good hit from it. Winds could be sustained 50-60 mph hours. What I mean by susstained is a 24-48 period of these strongs winds not good and power could be lost for many. Not sure hope Scott weighs in again. Scott is not the 10:30 tonight GFS going to be crucial if it stays consisitent?

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  13. Michele in PenfieldOctober 26, 2012 at 9:07 PM

    @ Hamlin - thanks for the information. I do like snow, I WISH it would happen, but know its not going too. Hopefully this winter we will get a good strong storm to make up for last winter! I hope Sandy doesn't cause too much damage and destruction.

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  14. The guidance will be all over the place over the weekend until Sunday night. At this point, Monday night and Tuesday look to be the worst of it for the mid Atlantic. We will get plenty of rain and strong winds. Gusts up to 50 mph would not be impossible which would cause scattered power outages. Don't get overly concerned in out area.

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  15. Scott, you think the majority of the rain will be outta here by Halloween night? The models are saying otherwise...

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  16. Awful quiet on the blog. Any updates? I think this is no big deal for us but what do I know.

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  17. We are going to geta lot of rain and some minor wind. I really could care less since it is not snow.

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  18. Really surprised about how quiet this blog is now. I beleive we are going to get from 3-5 inches of rain by Wednesday night. The winds are going to be 50-60 mph for a 12-18 hour period. This is going to be interesting becuase it is still sitting in central Pa. Wednesday with a sud 990 barometric pressure reading. Think this needs to be watched closely but that is just my opinion.

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