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Tuesday, October 23

WHERE WILL SANDY GO?


Written By:  Scott Hetsko

There has been a ton of chatter the past day or two about a monster collision of storms on the East Coast next week.  The most dire predictions are coming from the usual suspects, namely Accuweather and their former employee Joe Bastardi.  They seem to be falling in love solely with the EURO Global model which sharply turns Hurricane Sandy to the West which would clobber Eastern Long Island and points North.

Anyone who has read these blogs over the past few years certainly knows my disdain for long range saber rattling.  In my opinion it's cheapens the science.  Looking at the entire picture for next week, I feel that the upper level trough digging out of Canada is not deep enough to capture Sandy and pull her West.  The models will come into agreement on this in the next 36-48 hours as more reliable data is fed into them.  Strong Canadian surface high pressure will settle over the Northeast early next week and our weather should be really nice although chilly.

Of course, I've been wrong in the past but so has everyone else!  That's weather.  What do you think?  Too much hype by some or do you love the talk!


10 comments:

  1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  2. I agree, Scott, too much hype far too soon. The models I've seen, and I'm sure you have access to more than I do, all take Sandy out into the Atlantic, away from the US coast. These too, could be wrong, so the best we can say is that we need to watch Sandy carefully, in case it does turn west. But to use that as a headline is just creating hype that is uncalled for at this point.

    BTW - the "former employee: you mentioned was a classmate on mine in my PSU undergard meteorology classes. Somet things, and some people, never change.

    Michael

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  3. I agree with Scott over hyping the possability of a storm over a week out, hurts forecasters credablity.

    For the first time in my life I am hoping for no storm and nice weather.

    I am going to become a first time Dad of a baby girl no later than Monday. Let the nice weather hold on until after that, thanks.

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  4. BTW-Can someone please tell Wall Street that the end of days STORM is NOT coming this weekend.

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  5. You are ignoring the potential here and it only takes one time for potential to come together. Mark this down it is going to be an epic storm starting next Monday.

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  6. I agree with Scott! I guess it's possible, but Joe Bastardi should not be talking about anything more than 3 days out!! He couldn't forecast his way out of a paper bag... But it is definitely something to keep our eye on and good way to get this blog going before winter arrives!

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  7. Glad Scott brought some reason back to the forum crazies. There is no way at this time of the this could verify. No cold air thus there will be no big snowstorm in the east. Thanks for sanity Scott. You dreamers who are generally on this forum should go away it was to early for your wishing.

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  8. Mark
    I would not be so sure to call the bloggers here crazy. Looking at all the information there is starting to be agreeement about a pretty significant storm next Monday/Tuesday time frame. In fact if it verifies I would not be surpirsed to see 6-10 inches of snow in western NY. Just my opinion no need to jump all over me.

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  9. The scenario Andrew mentions could take place. A few models are now bringing Sandy ashore in northern NE and across into NY. If all the tropical moisture gets together with cold Canadian air, then the snowfall could be significant.

    This will be very interesting storm to follow. Not wishing for any specific result, just looking for the models to converge on a solution.

    Michael

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  10. thank god they didnt name this thing after me.im prepared and ready have food flash light and pop thats all i need for me.

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