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Monday, December 24

Appetizer Tonight; Main Course Later in Week!?





Written by John DiPasquale:

A quiet Christmas Eve day is with us, but there will be a 1 to 3" snowfall tonight developing this evening after 6 or 7 o'clock.  This snow will be compliments of a little area of low pressure passing by to the south combined with an upper air disturbance.  Roads will likely become somewhat slick & snow covered later this evening into the start of our Christmas Day, which yes will ensure us all of getting that white Christmas! 


Christmas afternoon through much of Wednesday will be quiet, but then a major developing storm to the south will quite possibly deliver the "main course" of snow to the area late Wednesday right through Thursday.  Current data is suggesting that the main storm will slide up just west of the Appalachians before it transfers it's energy just to the east of the Appalachians Wednesday night into Thursday, as the newly developing storm b/w Philly & NYC becomes the parent storm.  The combination of significant synoptic snow, cold northeast winds developing late Wednesday night into Thursday will likely enhance the snowfall & provide some lake effect on top of the storm snow.  At this time, we do not want to throw out snowfall numbers, but this could be one of the bigger snow events we've seen in a long while in WNY.  This of course could still change, as the storm is still more than two days away, but this is one we will be watching very closely & have the latest on later today right through midweek.  Stay tuned everyone, & have a great Christmas & holiday!! 

67 comments:

  1. I'm ready for the main course please

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  2. If the current track holds the lake enhancement setup will be really nice for us with that NE wind right when the snows really start. Haven't seen that setup in a while. Things have been looking so good on this storm since even 8 days out that I haven't wanted to say too much about it. Just watching and waiting...

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  3. What is everyone thinkin on numbers. The METS should have an idea on what they at least think. I will not hold them to it but should have an idea. I am thinking 12-18 but more North of 1-90 with lake enhancement.

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  4. Yeah, with the track of the storm I think we stay all snow and with lake enhancement i'm thinking 12-18. With some areas in the 18-24 inch range.

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  5. Come on John! IF you were to forecast wind and snow with all the data you have today what would you predict?

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  6. They are not posting numbers at my requests! We wait until the forecast is more certain before issuing our forecasted amounts. We will leave it to you to speculate if you want. Please allow until tomorrow night, at that time Stacey will post our official forecast. Merry Christmas everyone

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  7. It does appears good thing might come to those that wait. I do appreciate channel 8 discrection and accuracy when forecasting storm totals. Snow totals are very tricky and should not just be thrown around. It is way to early to predict accurate storm totals. But its does appear significant snow is a very good bet. I cant wait to push some snow around again.

    WINTER IS FINALLY HERE!

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  8. I remember lots of times with energy transfers like this..we think big snows only to wake up to hardly a coating as the transfer steals all the energy. Not saying that is what will happen..but it has happened.

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    1. Has happened many times in years past. Figuring model and computer technology has gotten much better.

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  9. What does scott and team think about energy being stolen by the other system? i haven;t heard one met mention that or read about it anywhere on NWS discussions.

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  10. Why is there blizzard watches out for down south for this system... is there a possibility we will get blizzard weather????

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  11. Winter storm watches have been posted all around us. The Buffalo NWS is lagging behind of course.

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  12. Looks like a potentail for more snow this weekend as well with another storm.

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  13. winter storm watches just posted for our area, with a foot or more snow possible

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  14. Sorry guys it's been crazy here today, but just quickly - at this point I think the only question regarding snowfall amounts will be the amount of lake enhancement we get out of this, which could be a fair amount. Synoptically, we look to be stuck in the sweet spot (deformation zone) with a period of heavy snow. John will have numbers tomorrow. As far as the coastal low stealing the energy, that is always a concern and has happened many times before, but right now we are looking good. We'll be tracking that trend if it looks like its starting to go that way. For now, it looks like a nice little snowstorm for us.

    Stacey

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  15. Yeah it looks like we are right where we need to be for this one

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  16. sounds like a fun 24 hrs for us come wednesday night. I know its too early, but what are people thinking for the next one on the weekend? same strength, or more weak than wed?

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  17. I would not be to concerned about the transfer of energy. The storms that we lose out on the energy transfers track more from the west to east. They track up from the Chicago area and get up into Ohio before the coastal system steals the energy. Leaving us out of the big snow totals. This is a different track from more south to north with they coastal Low much closer to us.

    I would be more woried if the secondary system didnt take over, because then the low wouldnt jump the moutains and would pass overhead or slightl west of us. This would lead to more mix and plain rain. The transfer is what will keep us all snow hopefully.

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  18. do you think warnings will go up sometime tomorrow?

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  19. Yes, probably in the afternoon. If they don't go up tomorrow, which would surprise me early wednesday would be the very latest.

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  20. nice to see some snow falling for christmas eve. just enough to make everything beautiful for christmas, but not enough to cause major travel headaches.

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  21. Still feel as I stated yesterday that if things stay on the same course and we get good lake enhancement we will get at least 20 inches from this storm.

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    1. wow 20 inches! that would be a sight i haven't seen since i was younger...I wonder if the NWS doesn't consider the lake enhancement component of it when they mention levels like 10-12 inches...They have to look at the big picture, how big of an area would get enhancement, just counties south of lake?

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  22. I agree with you andrew. I think anywhere from 1 to 2 feet of snow is a real possibility for this storm with lake enhancement.

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  23. 0z NAM is in, and hasn't changed much. And yes, I would imagine warnings would be issued tomorrow later in the day, possibly early Wednesday. Get your traveling in early Wednesday if possible!

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  24. And predicting exactly where any lake enhancement would take place, and therefore where those isolated higher amounts would occur is just not possible right now. The slightest change in wind direction will change those higher accumulation locations significantly. But Rochester has a much better shot at getting good snow off of that NE wind than any north/northwest wind thanks to a greater fetch over the lake.

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  25. All the models in agreement still.. I wont say its a done deal yet, but this is the closet weve been in years........ If everything is the same next year, ill be ready!

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  26. I would go with an 8-12 inch forecast with 12 being the high end with alittle lake help. The storm is a Quick mover to the northeast with not much wrap around. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE VERY LIMITED. I think 12 WILL BE THE EXCEPTION, with MOST in the 8-9 inch range. We will see but that is what I believe will accure looking at the latest data.

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  27. I look forward to checking in tomorrow morning when i get a chance to see hopefully good news about the big snow still coming.

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  28. We will see but I think 8-12 is a little low but we will see. As of right now I see more than 8-12. Just my opinion

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  29. I'm thinking 10-15", with a couple outliers getting 18" or so. That's more than we've seen from a storm in quite some time... Merry Christmas everyone!!!

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  30. I believe the OOzGFS has us in the 14-16 inch range? Can someone help is that correst?

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  31. I think 10-15 is a good amount. But I'm still going in the more 12-18+ inch area for us. Some models Ive looked at have 18+ wide spread but I think thats a little bit to much. I'll put a exact snowfall up tomorrow as to what i think rochester will get. Merry Christmas everyone! Keep the webster community in your prayers tonight.

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  32. Hamlin what models are you looking at? Just curious. I still see more than a ft for many. There will be Lake enhancement adding to the totals. I think 12 will be the norm with more North of I-90. CHannel 10 only went with 6".

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  33. For what it is worth hope this is a good one Thursday because weekend one is going to our east.

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  34. Merry Christmas everyone! It looks like many of us are finally getting our wish. I can't see how we don't get at least 10 in from this. I also CAN see how it could be 18+. It will be fun watching this across the rest of the country as well. Winter is finally here.

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  35. Macedon, to answer your question i am using the same models you are. I have been watching a tendency in the models to transfer the energy off to the east of the mountains alittle earlier and futher south. This will leave the heavest snow off to our east with the parent low pressure. 8-10 with some 12 possible here, bigger totals OFF TO OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST. I would highly dought 18 inchs for anyboby in our area. We will see.

    Time to go to work and plow the roads to make them safe.

    MERRY CHRISTMAS

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  36. Hamlin I do not agree with the transfer as none of the weather offices are even dicussing the potential but I do agree with your totals. The models have come down on the total QPF. I would now say this will be a medium sized storm with 6-12. Not a blockbuster by any means. It looked better yesterday. As afr as the weekend storm. Dod not model hug. My guess is the models will start moving this west. Either way it does not look like big one either. We picked up 2 inches last night. It looks beautiful outside. Perfect Christmas morning. Another note, it does not look like the iar will be cold enough for any lake effect when the storm passes.

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  37. Not sure what you are looking at Macedon? Still looks easily over a foot to me with the latest GFS anf Euro runs? TWC has us in a 12 plus range this morning. I still believe 12-15 still a good bet. I also would not rule out if we get a good NE wind then 20 inches possible. That is what I see only time will tell. Wonder what David or Weatherguy thinks? Of course waiting on Scott and his team with thougths and numders.

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  38. I was a little discouraged seeing Macedons prediction this morning of only 6-12. selfish i know as there are people who don't get any snow but i love a big snow...ch 13 says a foot or more possible still. nws doesnt put numbers on it in their discussion but they did say 1-2 inches per hour for a good amount of time over night wed, so if you do the numbers there could be 12 inches just over night wed. lighter snow all day thursday adds to total. i guess we will have to get a little closer.

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  39. When do you guys think they will put up warnings? I am surprised they have not already. I have to see if my snowblower works. I have not used it in 2 years. LOL

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  40. I dont think anyone in the Rochester area will receive 12 inchs out of this storm. I am goin even lower with my numbers the latest models are trending a energy transfer much further south and the parent low will exit to the northeast much to quickly for One foot storm totals. I would now say a solid 6-8 Maybe 9 inchs. THE BIGEST SNOWS WILL BE EAST AND NORTHEAST of the Rochester viewing area.

    I JUST KEEPING IT REAL

    The fresh snowfall looks really nice for Chistmas morning, I hope everyone has a great and safe holiday

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  41. Also Lake enhancement WILL NOT BE A FACTOR WITH THIS STORM. The temps are marginal and its location and quick movement NE will not favor Lake Enhancement or much lake effect.

    THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE THE BIG STORM WE WERE ALL HOPING FOR!!! Sorry.

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  42. You are right Hamlin we will be lucky to get 5 inches from this it has moved SE and moves wat to fast. Not a big one at all those people jumped the gun and you can not with this type of storm. Also nothing here this weekend the beat goes on.

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  43. Well Hamlin, we will have to see. Everyone is stating something different. Andrew is looking at the same models as you and believes that a ft or more is possible. Channel 13 is usually very conservative and even they are saying 12+. I do not think the transfer will be like you said. The storm will be going in full force before any transfer takes place, but we will see. I still say 6-12 with the 12 closer to the lake with a little lake help.

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  44. The fact that this is suppose to be less than 36 hours out and our weather peole have been pretty silent shows you that this is not a big deal. It also shows that even with all of our enhanced and improved weather technology the mets can not figure things out until one day before a storm hits. I knew there was a reason they would not put totals out yesterday.

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  45. Wow. You guys always tell me I am negative.The models are still spitting quite a bit of precip. Scott said yesterday they will not give totals until tonight plus it is Christmas morning and I am sure they are spending it with family. Calm down guys. To say we will only get 5" is just crazy. This will not be the blockbuster storm we all know we want but a solid 1ft is likely.

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  46. Looking at all the recent data I am starting to think Hamlin is correct. The models are moving the storm more east and I think 6 inches would be appropriate. However the next GFS run will be the most important one.

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  47. That is a switch Andrew, A little while ago you were thinking 20" in some areas, noy you are saying 6". Let's wait to see what the professionals say. This up and down with us unprofessionals is annoying.

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  48. Sorry worry about the east movement and transfer. There appears to be a dry slot that forms over us and will really bring numbers down. Channel 10 is also way down with numbers and they are usually pumped up. Have to wait and see when the next model runs of both the Euro and GFS. The next 2 should be pretty accurate.

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  49. Channel 10 shows 8-15. The NAM shows no dry slot and either does the GFS. I just looked at the new models and the NAM and GFS have not changed.

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  50. NWS is saying 8-15 in their Winter Storm Watch statement. No offense but you guys need to give this model to model thing a rest as Scott always says. You use models and other information to make a forecast. If you follow the models exactly, and they were always right, then we wouldn't need meteorologists correct?

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  51. Great point David, Great point.

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  52. Also remember I posted earlier in the week about the role of last night's LP. It was stronger than predicted and has moved this storm farther south and thus the tranfer may take place quicker and will not help Rochester. That is the basic explanation there is a lot of weather jargon that I care to not bog down the forum with.

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  53. I hear ya Andrew...... But I dont think we should jump off a cliff over a 06z nam run...... If every other models picks up on this, then we have an issue.... lets see what plays out. Hoping the news 8 team chimes in this morning.....

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  54. I think the deformation zone "sweet spot" will be key for this storm. As mentioned, it doesn't linger very long, so we will be relying on the heavy snow, as it won't be an ongoing thing. It'll still be a nice little storm with accumulating snowfall, but will it be the snowstorm of all snowstorms? Probably not. Enjoy the white this morning, and the shoveling we will be doing on Thursday. Us Mets will pow-wow today, and John will have numbers later!

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  55. Do you think the storm is moving south and east of here Scott?

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  56. And Merry Christmas Scott and the gang!!!

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  57. NOT GOING MODEL TO MODEL. THEY ARE TRENDING AND I SEE THAT!!!!SORRY.

    WE WILL NOT GET 12 INCHS OF SNOW FROM THIS STORM!!!

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  58. Key phrases "Sweet spot" "Little storm" "It won't be ongoing thing" this will be a 5-7 inch deal in a 12 hour period and then it is gone.

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  59. wow, usually macedon is quick to lose hope but he is hanging in there, some of you have fallen off the gravy train. I don't know what to believe. Surely if we onl yget 6 inches we will all be let down. Lets hope the NWS is right this time. I don't blame news 8 for not posting numbers yet but at the same time it is keeping us in suspense. At the this point might as well wait until it falls and then predict an amount LOL just kidding

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  60. Anon: Not necessarily. I think some spots WILL get a decent storm out of this. Will we see WIDESPREAD 12"+? Perhaps not, but it will be a pretty good storm. There's plenty of moisture to work with.

    And Merry Christmas to all of you, as well!

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  61. news 8 (not sure if that was scott or not), when do you think you will be able to put a stamp on this as far as amounts? also, what time on wed do you see snow starting? how about buffalo or south? we have to drive to jamestown wednesday

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  62. I think everyone sees 8", with plenty of spots approaching a foot with help from the lake. I remember storms like this that have lingered a little longer than expected and had left over moisture that the lake has fun with, over-producing what was expected. I have also seen storms get robbed by the coast or have too much warm air come in and cut down on snow totals. Bottom line, we're getting a decent amount of snow, so be thankful for that!

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  63. I KNOW YOU CAN NOT GO MODEL TO MODEL BUT I WOULD THINK WE ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO WHERE THE MODELS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT ACCURATE? THE 12Z NAM I BELIEVE GIVES US OVER 12 INCHES OF SNOW UNLESS I DO NOT UNDERSTAND WHAT I AM READING. IN FACT THINK IT SHOWS 16-18? CAN SOMEONE HELP ME ON THIS?

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  64. NWS is saying 8-15 so unless all these other people see something the NWS and we don't, you would be correct in saying 12-18.

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  65. winter storm warning....something is coming our way at least!

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