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Monday, December 3

Nice n' Mild through Tuesday!

Written by John DiPasquale:


What a start to December!  Tough for us snow lovers, but nice to travel in, put up the outdoor decorations up, & get the Christmas tree.  It appears that we will have unseasonable warmth around through Tuesday, with near record warmth felt Tuesday!  Highs will make 50 to 55 today, & 60 to 65 tomorrow with a gusty southwest wind!  The record high Tuesday is 66 set back in 1982.  It's going to be close!  Some rain will develop later tomorrow afternoon into the evening with the strong cold front, & behind it reality will return, as readings are expected to drop back into the 30s Wednesday with a few snow showers & squalls.  Little, if any, accumulation is expected though.

High pressure will build in & provide a frosty start to Thursday with a fair amount of sun expected to shine too.  Temperatures will warm a bit more Friday, before cooling later Saturday into Sunday with highs mainly in the 40s from Friday through Sunday.  There also will probably be a few showers Friday night into Saturday.  Next week could turn quite unsettled with some rain & possibly snow, as the jet becomes much more active here in the East.  Stay tuned.

Have a great start to your week everyone!       

72 comments:

  1. I think I'm done looking at models for a week or so. It's a flip flopping emotional roller coaster every 12 hours.

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  2. The pattern is not going to change people. Again, storms will ride to our West and we will be on the warm side until the cold front passes. It will be somewhat cold for a day or 2 before we warm up again. I bet we do not see more than 10 inches of snow this Decemeber. Same pattern as last year. Not gonna change. Not being negative.

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  3. It's not the same pattern as last year. Might be the same result but it isn't the same pattern.

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  4. We are going to be back near 60 by next Monday and mayebe get a little colder after that, but maybe just to average.

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  5. Not sure if this is frowned upon on here.. but this guy does a good job of describing what is likely to happen this year. I knew there was a reason I've been waiting for a near neutral ENSO.. to bad it likely won't matter.

    http://classic.wunderground.com/blog/Levi32/comment.html?entrynum=582

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  6. Looks like cold coming starting around the 10th.

    Andy

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  7. You all know I am on record for what this winter will bring. Very similar to last year so do not get your hopes up. Not trying to get people angry just keeping it real.

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  8. Rather than continue to argue with negative nancies, I believe we should all just let the large scale pattern over the next two to three weeks speak for itself. If they want to ignore the constant signs it's their choice.

    Next week could be pretty wild with some rain to snow events.

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  9. Today was a nice day to work outside. Dry, the sun was shining and the temperature wasnt bad either. It was sort of borring for forecasters but enjoyable to work in. This month is going to give us alittle taste everything, warm, cold, rain and snow. Yes even some cold and snow, not bad.

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  10. If December ends up being a flop with little snow, I am selling my snowmobiles!

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  11. So far so VERY good.

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    Replies
    1. Agreed. Pattern change to colder in a few weeks looks pretty good :)

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  12. My predication is no more than 12 inches of snow this month and 50-60 for the entire winter.

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  13. There will be no pattern change to colder weather by mid month. Storms will still ride to our West as usual. Green Christmas looks likely and another bad year for snow lovers, ski resorts and businesses that rely on snow. I know some Mets, not just channel 8, state that there will be a pattern change by mid-December. I am not believeing that will happen. I wish it would, but it is not likely.

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  14. I have to say, I am amazed at the attitudes on what used to be a fairly interesting blog. Looks to me like most people on here aren't interested in "weather", they are only interested in "storms" - especially "the big one." Weather is every day. It may not be what you want, it may not be exciting, but it is still weather. There are reasons for what the weather is every day. Instead of looking for indications of what *might* happen in 2 weeks (and we all agree that predictions that far out are generally useless), how about enjoying whatever we have each day, and looking at what is creating that day's weather. Or, is that too boring?

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    Replies
    1. I don't look for storms because it is impossible beyond 4-5 days. Global circulation and weather patterns seems a little more accurate further out. I like reading long range weather ideas and seeing how they play out as the time period approaches..I'm funny like that. Feel free to post about todays weather if you like that sort of thing.

      Delete
    2. Caledonia - looking ahead and watching how it plays out is fine, and can be quite educational, I have no quarrel with that sort of thing. I was commenting more about the current rash of posts along the lines of how boring this all is, and there won't be storms, and so on. :-) Heck, I like looking ahead....to March. Not that I hate winter, but I find the transitional times really fun (kind of like the rollercoaster we're on now - the way things set up to create massive temp drops or increases is fascinating).

      Delete
  15. I guess what I do not get is I remember years ago local mets giving a heads up about a potential storm coming coming after they looked at models. This would be 7 days out and often it seemed like there would be a storm in our area. Now it seems like no one can give us anything 2 days out. I thought with the new weather technology things would be easier to predict about future potential weather? Just confused.

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  16. 63 at 11 AM on 12/4---this is awesome!!!!!

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  17. 67 at KROC as of noon. Yet another record high has been broken, seems like there's been no shortage of those the last few years...

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  18. Global warming!!!!

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  19. And on Channel 10, they are jumping up and down about the prospects of a PATTERN SHIFT after Dec. 10th. Get your snow gear out, put away the barbecue, have your umbrellas handy.

    They drive me crazy. I am so glad you people on Channel 8 are so much more reasonable and less HYPER about the weather!

    Oh, and thanks "anon." commenter about the weather being every day and not just the big storms! Very true.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ch 10 is like the Fox news of weather---keep 'em scared and on edge. Make the news don't report it.
      They can keep wishing for their pattern change--they've been at it for two years and have been consistently wrong. I suppose time is on their side. When it does get cold they'll be crowing about their "prediction"

      Delete
  20. We may very well need our umbrellas early next week, as it seems a strong storm system may be in the works for that time frame.

    500 mb ensembles have taken what was a decent average/below average temperature regime in a few weeks and moved it to the western states. PNA ensembles hold solidly negative through mid month. Hope for colder second half of December fading fast.

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  21. Exactly what Andrew and I have been saying. There will be no pattern shift in the East. Sorry.

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  22. I agree. I now think that this pattern in general will be locked in most of the month. I was hopefully that a Pacific ridge would hold off the coast of Oregon but that doesn't appear to be happening.

    Scott

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  23. Andrew and now Scott it's like 2/3 of the trinity saying it's gonna stay WARM!!! Great news. I'm leaving the clubs in the car.
    Played today and it was actually warm with a lite jacket on. Lot's of smiling people on a jam packed golf course today. What a wonderful bonus for this time of year.

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    Replies
    1. Have fun playing in the mud next week Anon.

      Delete
  24. NWS says strong storm next week going west of us (right on Andrew!!) --wet and windy here but someone in west will be digging some serious snow.

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  25. Totally agree with Andrew. A warm December. It does look interesting in the next Monday - Tuesday time frame for a potential High Wind Event.

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  26. Well, I do not want to gloat however I feel I have really been Rochester's Most Accurate the last 3 years on the blog. The only bothersome thing is that I get beat up on here. It started with Brian N. who ended up out. Scott himself has been angry towards me in the past. Most recently Hamlin Plower has called me out on the blog. I just do not understand. I am only giving my opinion and quite frankly one that has been spot on often. I am not rooting against snow I like snow. But, the truth hurts and some can not handle the truth (Jack Nicholson) on this blog. I will also tell you when we are getting a storm thus I share both sides. Thanks to those who are not mean spirited and support Rochester's Most Accurate blogger.

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    Replies
    1. WHOOOOAAAA hold the phone there sparky. If I recall correctly, you stated that the entire winter would turn out like this. Last I checked it is only December 4th. There is a certain saying about counting your chickens before they hatch. Also if I recall correctly there were several instances last winter where you predicted major snowstorms which never panned out. My point is don't pat yourself on the back just yet.

      I am curious though...what methods do you use to make your predictions?

      Delete
    2. He's good whatever he's using. Could be a crystal ball but his forecasts of overall trends for two to three months out are better than anybody else. That's based on the last two years--and especially last year where all the pros got it completely wrong.
      ... and he's correct you snow lovers who keep wish casting snowmageddon based on your models get upset when he disagrees with your interpretations. What's really disturbing is you're even upset when he's right--which is often.

      Delete
    3. I don't want to gloat, but I will anyway. We really aren't interested in this being a forum for "I told you so" forecasting. We will remove such posts going forward. Thanks!

      Scott

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    4. Right! We've had about 3 days of abnormally warm weather and people are cancelling winter and verifying monthly forecasts. Modeling looks bleak for winter at LEAST through the solstice.. but how often does a 4 week prediction change?

      Delete
  27. Winters are changing around here and, I believe, this will be the norm for future winters. I think we ahve crossed a threshold to more mild and snowless winters. On the bright side, it is good for our heating bills, but we will have to move into Canada for real winter and snow.

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  28. Does anyone look at history? Some of the SNOWLESS AND WARMEST Winters were in the 1940s and 1950s. If we had a blog in the 1940s, what would they say?

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  29. I agree, but I also believe the the climate has changed. Snowstorms, here are becoming less and less each year. We usually get nickeled and dimed with lake effect, but storms go to our West or East. What kind of pattern do we need to get a storm to ride through the Ohio Valley East. Why do they always go West or too far South of us all the time?

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  30. Europe has been cold..Alaska has been cold. There was a blizzard NW of Moscow that stranded traffic for 125 miles. The climate IS warmer than it was in the 70's.. but just because the pattern doesn't favor North America at the moment, doesn't mean winter will never return.

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  31. It was a nice day for putting up snow fence at work, 70 deg felt very nice on the skin. Hopefuly the rain doesnt create to much mud. That is not so nice for working in the feilds. The mud wouldnt be bad if we didnt have to put up 18000 ft of snow fence in those muddy feilds. Some cold air would really help freeze things up if we get a lot of rain.

    As far as the whole month of december goes, NOBODY KNOWS what it will do. I wont give up on it yet, it is still way to early and models are all over the place. To sit back and say with certainty that it will be one way of the other is just alittle foolish.

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  32. Scott laying down the law. Gotta love it.

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  33. I thought this was interesting:

    Seasonal Snowfall

    Highest Lowest

    1. 84.7" 1996-97 1. 9.1" 1967-68
    2. 77.5" 1950-51 2. 10.5" 1913-14
    3. 74.5" 1961-62 3. 17.5" 1924-25
    4. 73.6" 1951-52 4. 19.4" 1930-31
    5. 73.3" 1978-79 5. 20.5" 1910-11
    6. 70.5" 2010-11 6. 21.2" 1919-20
    7. 68.6" 1984-85 7. 21.6" 1957-58
    8. 68.0" 1881-82 8. 24.4" 1956-57
    9. 66.3" 1887-88 9. 24.6" 1937-38
    10. 66.0" 1983-84 10. 24.8" 1953-54

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    Replies
    1. No way that can be correct. We average nearly 100 inches per season, how can the single season record be only 84.7 inches?

      Delete
  34. Sorry, the above is not Rochester, NY.

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    Replies
    1. Ignore my reply then lol

      Delete
  35. Is a +PNA THAT significant of a player in our weather??!! I know models are showing a +PNA having a tough time forming, but a -NAO and -AO are in play, and the Polar Vortex that will park itself in the Plains should be able to push the ridge out of the southeast, shouldn't it?

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    Replies
    1. Apparently not :(

      Of little consolation is the 18z GFS, which tracks the storm early next week south of the region and keeps the 0C line south of us for some time, but again that is of very little consolation. More of an empty comfort actually.

      Delete
  36. Maybe its the Paxil talking (joking), but I am not investing in much except my look-out-the-window model, which has 100% accuracy. I am about to do the 0Z run of that model. I bet it shows rain.

    Anyway, the models cannot tell what is going to happen in the atmosphere over the Pacific for sure, which seems to be the main driver of our weather lately.

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  37. wonder how long until Andrew dusts off his "back to the basement routine"?? The arrogance is definitely back.

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  38. Exactly what I am talking about. Removing I told you so forecasts? Do you remove the posts who butcher me even when I am right? I thought this was America? Do not be threatened Scott I just call them as I see them. You still are the best!

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  39. Thanks Andrew but threatened is the last thing I am annoyed by your arrogance. I respect the science of meteorology too much to simply proclaim my greatness like you do on this blog. We publish this blog to provide our viewers more in depth conversation on the weather and what factors determine it. I call them as I see them too but the difference is I don't thump my chest begging for praise on the blog. This is my job and I take it seriously.

    Scott

    ReplyDelete
  40. KEEPING IT REEL IN HAMLIN(PLOWER)December 4, 2012 at 10:07 PM

    ANDREW, HOW CAN YOU BE CORRECT ALREADY. IS DECEMBER OVER??? DID I MISS A WHOLE F%$#EN MONTH OR SOMETHING??? TODAY IS THE FOURTH!!! THE FOURTH!!! NOT TO MENTION WE HAVE THE WHOLE WINTER LEFT!!!

    PEOPLE IT IS THE FOURTH OF DECEMBER AND MOST OF YOU ARE ALL GIVING UP ON WINTER???

    WOW!!!!!!!

    I THOUGHT BILLS FANS WHERE FICKLE!!!

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    Replies
    1. Well when Scott mentions on air that we will be warm for the entire month of December, and considering that last season wasn't just a bad dream, it's awfully tough not to press the panic button.

      Personally I'm amazed that despite a much different set of teleconnections from this time last year, we're seeing the exact same results to this point. There is actually LESS snowcover across the lower 48 currently than at this point last season, so if you go by that metric we're off to an even worse start. Now I'm not about to pull an Andrew or a Macedon and declare winter over when it's only December 4th, but it's awfully difficult to keep the faith when at least the first third of this season is shaping up to be an encore of last season.

      Delete
  41. Recently on this blog something was mentioned about "climate memory" referring to effects following a prolonged wet or dry spell. Could anyone elaborate on that? Thanks!

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  42. Scott, or anyone that may have it handy, Im looking for a graph of the snowfalls for our area over the past 30, 50, 100yrs, whatever is available. Its impossible to find on the net, but I know it exists, because I've seen it. This time i'll save it.
    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. Here is monthly snowfall data back to 1940 for ROC. I copied and pasted into Excel and you can graph it from that. You will notice that for most of the 1940's and early 1950's we were light on snow.

      http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/climate/roc_snow00s.php

      All kinds of other historical data here.
      http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=buf

      Andy

      Delete
  43. Scott, your giving up way too early and sound very pessimistic! It's a fact that last winter and the beginning of this one has taken its toll on everyone, but people, its Dec. 5th! You've said it best yourself Scott, "Live by the models, die by the models..."

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  44. What about the Wind Storm on Monday or Tuesday of next week?

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    Replies
    1. I don't think the strength of that storm has been figured out yet.

      Delete
  45. Any post by Andrew will forever be deleted on this blog. Tired of his shots at me as well as his immaturity.

    Scott

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  46. Is it me or does the atmosphere look like it wants to take on a La Nina type look?

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  47. Glad to hear it Scott - he seemed to come around after people had enough of him last year and told to quite being so arrogant - now he blew it again. Good riddance.

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  48. Very disappointing people can not speak what they feel on the blog as long as they are not swearing or making inappropriate comments towards others. There is freedom of speech in America the last time I checked.

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    Replies
    1. now we hear from Andrew's wife.....

      Delete
    2. And this blog is private property. The admins can run as they want.

      Delete
  49. It is very disappointing when people don't even understand the Constitution and how it is applied

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  50. To me it looks like an El Nino pattern thus far with the West Coast getting slammed with storms. There's plenty of time for Winter to take hold, still think 3-6 weeks of harsh winter ahead at some point.

    Scott

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  51. I thought this was a weather enthusiast blog? People like Andrew should realize that other blogs exist that he can listen to himself talk and make himself feel good. I would much rather talk about what the weather "might" do over the next week. Andrew can go blog or tweet on dbag.com.

    ReplyDelete
  52. Caledonia - are you saying this is like a La Nina because of the potential storm track on Monday-Tuesday? I think it is a weird setup with an Omega block, -PNA, a southeast ridge, and lots of cold air just to our north spilling down into the Central US. I haven't been a student of weather too long, but I have never seen this setup before.

    ReplyDelete
  53. Hello All, Longtime Reader, firsttime poster. While I may not have access to the models, whether real or vaporous that so many quote here, I know weather, having grown up in the Bflo snow belt and living in AK for years. The real and only question is, will Irving Berlin's dreams come true this year or not?

    As a longtime reader, I have noted Andrew's erratic posts and his potshots, but let's be clear, he has been somewhat accurate. I do wonder how many times he posts as Anonymous or uses another alias. Clearly, he's someone who hops on the computer to rant when a local sports call-in show won't take his call, much like a gambler looking for his next score. As a professional who works with children, I know his type. That being said, he has hit the target occassionally. As for banning him? Please! C'mon Scott, never ever take the bully's bait. Don't play into his game! Regarding his joshing, all human beings are egotistical by nature, it's why we're still upright. Take a note from the legendary Don Paul, WIVB Bflo, admitt the ones you miss and don't let the bully rattle you.

    Now, about Mr.Berlin...

    ReplyDelete

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