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Thursday, December 20

SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BEGINS LATER TONIGHT


Written By:  Scott Hetsko
REVISED:  FRIDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE
  
After consulting the latest data, we've have upped the snow amounts by 1-2" in total by Saturday evening.  I feel that 4" will be the low end as this storm spends about 18 hours over Northern N.Y. overnight through Saturday.  Falling air pressure within the storm will accelerate our winds after 8 p.m. tonight with gusts possible of 40-45 mph.  Blowing of snow may produce very low visibility at times overnight and Saturday morning.  Snow will wind down in the afternoon hours.  

The elevations of Wyoming County will probably get the most snow, up to 12" possible in THE HIGHEST spots there.  The good news for all is that any snow will stick around through next week.  Also you all are probably seeing low pressure developing along the Gulf Coast next Wednesday.  That will be the one to watch for a late week snowstorm in the Northeast.  Could be fun!  At least our weather pattern is becoming more conducive for Winter storms rather than mild and wet weather.


Merry Christmas and Happy New Year everyone!



181 comments:

  1. "At least our weather pattern is becoming more conducive for Winter storms rather than mild and wet weather."

    I think this actually excites me more than us finally getting some snow!

    Cheers :)

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  2. FINALLY! I've been waiting far too long for old man Winter to show up for a semi-extended period.

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  3. I guess I will take it.

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  4. Couldn't stand waiting until 4 PM, huh, Scott? :)

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  5. And the waiting game begins.

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  6. Probability of 4+ inch snow accumulation via HPC:
    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif

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  7. I think someone at NOAA accidentally hit the "delete" button for their alerts map. It's almost completely blank lol.

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  8. Man. If the GFS were to verify for next Thursday, Friday we could get a BIG snowstorm. My worry is that it will go to far south and East.

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    Replies
    1. Why do you do that to yourself? You continually set yourself up for disappointment when something doesn't materialize.
      Andy

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    2. If the current GFS verified we would be dry. Major change from the last run, don't put too much, if any, stock in ANY model right now. Wait until after the weekend.

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  9. I cannot strand the NWS. See below: They always have to put a damper on things. Next weeks storm,the way it shows on the models now, is not a favored track.

    BY LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST
    ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOR THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE
    NATION. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS...IN FACT
    THE 06Z GFS HAD COMPLETELY LOST IT FROM EARLIER RUNS. BOTH 12Z RUNS
    OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE STORM...AND TRACK IT TO OUR SOUTHEAST
    WITH THE TYPICAL TIMING AND DETAIL DIFFERENCES. IF THE CURRENT MODEL
    RUNS TO VERIFY...THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT. IT IS STILL
    7 DAYS AWAY HOWEVER...AND THE FORECAST LOW TRACK IS NOT FAVORED BY
    STORM TRACK CLIMATOLOGY. GIVEN THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS
    TIME RANGE...WILL JUST USE CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

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  10. How about we deal with this weekend before you all go nuts about next week again

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  11. I was hoping Scott would show that Mayan calendar forecast XD

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  12. At least NWS said A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT for next weeks storm, to me thats excellent, thats doesn't damper at all if you got a snowmobile. seriously wait til at least monday, but if its the big one with alot of white snow, lets hope those two models vertify.

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    1. POSSIBLY a significant snow event, if the climatologically unfavorable track on some of the models verified. I've got my fingers crossed though, whoever bears the brunt is gonna get clocked. It could end up being one of those deals where whoever is within 300 miles gets a significant snowstorm. The thing that worries me the most is suppression.

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  13. i believe that south/east track is where the low is going, i cant see it going like draco did. its either going to hit us or be on the coast or a outtoseaster. This storm being named Euclid?

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    1. UGH I CANNOT STAND HOW TWC IS NAMING WINTER STORMS! AS FAR AS I'M CONCERNED THIS STORM IS UNNAMED LIKE ALL OF THE OTHERS!! FFFFFFFFFFFF-

      rant over :)

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  14. I am glad the patern is finaly starting to turn more winter like. If we only get two inchs of snow with 30MPH winds, and the sun shines on Sunday with 34deg we will have a GREEN CHRISTMAS at my house on the north side of Hamlin. Oh well cant win them all. We should be happy to get any snow at this point.

    The below freezing high temps for next week will be great I hope they last for the month of January. I like the Euro for later next week could this finaly be the big storm we have been waiting for. Way to early to get excited yet. Now I will sit back and wait, winter is finaly here.

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  15. I am SOOOOOOO sick of rain. Can I tell you. Will it freeking snow already.

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    Replies
    1. A pixie told me it won't snow until you quit beyotching. I've got about $500 into my snowmobile over the last 2 years without a mile on it. What is your complaint?

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  16. Is anyone else worried about the winds being too strong to be able to pick up enough mositure from the lake? I have seen it happen many times that, due to shear from high winds, greatly limit lake enhancement and lake effect. Just wondering.

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  17. Happy first day of winter, everybody! Scott's forecast from last night is still looking good. We still expect a GENERAL 3-6" for MOST of us; highest amounts south of the Thruway, lowest end of that range close to the lake. The real winners will still be the upslope areas and hills in Wyoming county and south of ROC. In terms of the wind, the heavier nature of the snow will keep the blowing down somewhat, but still expect some tricky travel on Saturday. If this were a pure LAKE EFFECT event, the strong winds would certainly hinder snowfall amounts. But because there is still moisture available from the main storm system, the winds won't have AS MUCH of an effect. But yes, generally strong winds cut down on accumulations.

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  18. About what time do you expect temperatures to get to 32 degrees or below? I just want to make sure we aren't on the roads when and if it ices up.

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  19. The other channel said last night 4-7 and that may be on the conservative side? Also concerned about the winds and blowing and drifting tomorrow? Anyone have an update about that potential big strom late next week? Must not be much interest in this storm or next week because this blog is really quiet.

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  20. Wellit is early in morning yet. I am hoping the storm next week gives us more snow. at this point ill take anything, i don't car eif it isn't a blockbuster. We need to add to our snowpack so people can snowmobile etc. i hope the 3-6 is conservative and the 4-7 and more comes true, although scott usually calls it pretty good. We shall see!

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  21. We still think there will be a big range with this storm, with the temperatures along the immediate shoreline and a few miles in will be marginal thanks to the warm lake waters. Also, terrain will play a big role in this storm, so significantly more (10"+) possible in Wyoming Co.

    As far as the storm next week is concerned - we are focusing on the nitty gritty of our current storm, then we'll begin to really watch next week's storm. Remember, it's still almost a week out. We've seen time and again what these storms will or won't do this far out. But we are certainly in an active weather pattern right now.

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  22. active weather pattern is all i need to hear...will temps continue to be around normal? no hint at a warm up in the next 7-10 days?

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  23. Temps are looking to remain below average for the next week or so. So, the snow we get should stick around for at least a little while!

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    1. so does that mean you are thinking it will warm up again after a week or you just don't have data out that far to confirm the cold stays? just trying to figure out if we are in for an extended winter pattern of it will leave us. what time today do you expect the temps to fall below freeing, if at all? my wife has to drive to newark for work this afternoon. and will be driving home later tonight. also has to drive back there in the AM.

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    2. NAO looks like it wants to go positive again in January, which if it holds true, means milder weather again. But we typically have thaws and dips in the temperatures again. That's just a normal winter cycle.

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  24. We are getting all snow this morning in Wayland, no rain. Anyone else?

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  25. Yucky rain in Greece. Moving to Wayland.

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  26. It is all snow in Livonia.

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  27. i'm jealous, you missed out a bunch in the past as we all got lake effect up this way in the past so you deserve it!

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  28. actually i just looked outside and it is lightly snowing, did not expect that.

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  29. there is snow in the air in Fairport.

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  30. Looking at the current radar trends, it seems that the majority of the snow will be late tonight into tomorrow. However, as mentioned do not expect much closer to the lake.

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  31. I was not great on this storm other than I felt someone was going to get a big storm and it was the midwest. I said the other day that someone is going to get clobbered late next week and I still feel strongly about that. If I had to say with the current data Rochester snow lovers could be very very happy. But it is way to early to be accurate. Monday will start giving us more answers. Happy Holidays to the weather 8 team and all.

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  32. Some snowflakes near the RIT campus. Was expecting just rain during the day, apparently last night's trend of colder than expected air has carried over into today.

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  33. Snowing in Greece! Woo hop!!

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  34. Snowing in Webster.

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  35. Still some rain along the immediate shoreline, but temperatures have fallen enough to support mainly mix/snow for most. However, we still don't anticipate much accumulation today as most of the wraparound moisture and lake enhancement will come tonight/tomorrow.

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  36. I know we are not focusing on next weeks potetial storm and I know things will change, but the models keep trending too far east to affect us much. It might be a storm where we say South and East instead of West.

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    Replies
    1. Better than chilly and rainy as far as I'm concerned.

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  37. Looked at the 7 day NWS forecast for our region. No rain to be found. Beautiful.

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  38. My phone has just informed me that we are now under a Wind Advisory from 10pm tonight through 7pm tomorrow night.

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  39. Not true Macedon! Latest run coast could be rain interior set up for good snow. Still way to early do not model hug other factors are always in play with a storm.

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    1. Agreed. Only the Euro is 'trending' eastward while the GFS has just been bouncing around. No cause to get too excited or disappointed yet.

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    2. ...but the Euro does look pretty. Fingers crossed.

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  40. Merry Christmas to everyone. Nice blogging with all of you.

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  41. You too Macedon :)

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  42. it looks like we are going to have more of a Wind Event than Snow. Maybe next year.

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  43. Why are you saying that do the numbrrs look lower now?

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  44. Scott looking to travel tomorrow towards Utica. Is your thinking still the same 3-6 inches with some wind tomorrow? Thanks

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  45. I just noticed that the map graphic is titled "Enough to Snovel". How exactly does one "snovel" snow? Or, am I supposed to snovel the show? ;-)

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  46. Again way to early but the latest Euro gives us a lot of snow. It should at least get the snow lovers excited.

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  47. NEW UPDATE NOW ON THE SAME POST, PLEASE READ MY REVISED FORECAST. Updated snow amounts and wind speeds.

    Scott

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  48. Scott,
    Thanks for the update.

    Question-- the radar shows snow covering the entire area, but at least in Fairport it's barely doing anything right now. Is that because the snow is evaporating before it hits the ground or the radar sensitivity is set very high?

    Thanks
    Andy

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  49. It still a mix of rain and snow at this point, Andy. Accumulating snow for you won't occur around 11 or midnight tonight and through Saturday morning.

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  50. Still mostly rain in Northern Hamlin. When should we expect the change over on the lake shore. I was happy to see the forecast snow totals increase a bit this afternoon. The GFS and NAM models seem to be hinting at a slight Georgian bay connection for alittle while. I am looking forward to finaly plowing some snow. 40 MPH winds will sure make it tricky.

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  51. its not often that we get to enjoy an increase in the snow numbers rather than a decrease as the storm gets closer, that was a welcomed change. with regards to the wind, any reason to worry about damage or power loss on this one scott? i have no gas in the garage lol.

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  52. I don't think so but wind gusts may be near that criteria overnight. Certainly will be "fun" overnight and early Saturday if I'm right.

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  53. Scott we know it is early and you are focused on the current storm. but you take a second to say what are your feelings about that storm next Thursday? I guess what are the current models say for us but more importantly what is your knowledge and gut tell you about where it will go because you always say many factors go into predicting weather not just models. Love to hear what you are thinking on that one.

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  54. Gonna be a "fun" drive down 390 south headed to work at 6:30 tomorrow morning..Looking forward to taking the truck out again!

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  55. It's amazing how each forecast is different between channels 8,9, 10, and 13! A couple of stations saying 6-10"!? I'm trusting Scott, but a part of me hopes the others are right! Be safe everyone, and remember, most people in Rochester can handle snow, and the ones who can't? Stay away from them on the roads....

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  56. Easy now my 6-10" is ONLY for WYOMING county. Most of us will be on the 4-6" side.

    SCOTT

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  57. Is there going to be a west wind or NW wind? Weather Channel says West, which would favor the east end of Lake Ontario. NW wind favors south shore, east of the city. Either way, I have property in both spots :-)

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  58. I really don't like the trend on the models for next week's storm. Most of them have converged on a track off the coast, which would leave us high and dry. They've caught on to the eventual strength of the blocking over Hudson Bay, which resulted in this trend. Euro is the only model still on our team, but I fully expect it to fall in line with the other models over the next few days.

    The good news is that we don't have to worry about any miserable cold rain and bare muddy ground for awhile :)

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  59. Snow check, who's getting what right now? I have reports of steady snow falling West and Southwest of Rochester at the moment.

    Scott

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  60. Michele in PenfieldDecember 21, 2012 at 9:26 PM

    Rain/Snow mix in Penfield/Webster (Creek Street). It's coming down steady but nothing is sticking.

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  61. we have had light snow falling for hours but ground is so wet its not sticking here in farmington

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  62. steady light snow right now with winds picking up in henrietta. snow starting to coat grassy surfaces.

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    Replies
    1. Can confirm, light snow in Henrietta. Sticking to cars and some other surfaces.

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  63. Steady snow falling in the Holley area, sticking to the grass and trying to stick on the roads.

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  64. Do you still see 4-8 for the fairport area Scott? Looking like storm may have broke up some???

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  65. Rain with wet snow just starting to mix in. Temp slowly starting to fall off, it is 34Deg.

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  66. Snowing in Greece. Cars covered, sticking to the grass.

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  67. Don't feel like 8" will happen for anybody near Fairport but 4" still a good bet.

    Scott

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  68. That is to bad that strom next week is heading east of us. It looks like a large one too.

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    1. There is still plenty of time for the guidance to change, and the GFS ensembles are still all over the place. But with such a strong block being projected and trending stronger I'd say it doesn't look good for us, as of now.

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  69. Snowing Hard in Hilton

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  70. This storm on radar does not look like it has a lot of moisture left. Once again our friend at Channel 10 blows it up more than it is. Some things never change.

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  71. Yeah purely based on the radar it looks like it's fizzled. Hope it's wrong.

    Andy

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  72. Steady snow in Webster, about 2 miles inland. Grassy areas have sugar coating now.

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  73. Throw in the towel this is a dud! Look at the radar it is broken up and not much there.

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  74. Snow lighter in Hilton now.. If we get 2inches id be surprised....

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  75. Ugh some of you are ridiculous. The storm hasn't fizzled, and it is not a dud. The main area of snow arrives later tonight. The end.

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  76. Bust Bust Bust written all over this. We have a whopping dusting so far in Macedon with no snow falling right now and clouds broken. Next weeks storm will go east and we will miss it. Bad news after bad news.

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    1. Oh yeah, total bust. Visibility down to less than a quarter mile, near whiteout at times, lake enhancement intensifying...yeah man, totally a bust -_-

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  77. You guys can be so fickle. Let the lake enhancement set up...like what is happening now.

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  78. I just drove from RIT to Webster and saw 3 people in the ditch. A solid 2" if not more, east side of Webster. Roads are bad

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  79. Not sure if you want to call this a bust or a dud. I just got to work this morning and in Newark all we have is a bunch of snow blowing around...nothing much really.

    Maybe it will pick up later during the morning.

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  80. there is a lot of snow in webster/ontario area lots of drifting snow with drifts up to 8-10 inches. Probably around 3 inches so far it is so nice to see the ground white again!!!! Still snowing pretty good here..... Can that band of LES that is west of the city please move this way though it would be nice for it to snow all day

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  81. Could we see a few hour period of very heavy lake snow later this morning. That band west of the city is moving eastward and is connected to Georgous Bay. It looks pretty strong already and as it heads east the fetch will increase.

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    1. Welcome back Charles :)

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  82. In Fairport 3-4 inches with drifts up to 18 inches.

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  83. so is there any more moisture associated with the storm in terms of synoptic, or is this just normal lake effect now? oh and Macedon...way to be negative again, what good are tyou doing crying on here about a bust?

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  84. 1/2 inch in Hilton Windy and blowing snow.... not much on ground though....

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  85. its impossible to say how much we have because of the wind blowing it, but we have enough to completely cover grass, and then the driveway is drifted. my best guess is around 3-4 inches

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  86. At least 4" in Chili, however I suspect I'm being a little too conservative. But as Farmington said, the wind makes it impossible to accurately measure. Enjoy the snow everyone!!!

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  87. A good 3 or 4 inches in Lyons at 8 am. Lots of blowing.

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  88. Snowing pretty good here. At least a couple inches on the ground AS ADVERTISED.

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  89. so whats with the storm next week? looks like it takes the track but strenght not there?

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  90. a good 6-8 inches on my deck out here in henrietta, with light snow falling still.

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  91. Have to keep a close eye on it. depending on where it tracks, right now i think were on the outer edge of the track but see us getting 6 inches south of the city. Right pa, and southern new york would be getting hit the hardest with a foot+

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  92. id rather not be in the sweet spot this early and then let it come into better agreement early next week. if we were in the sweet spot this far out we would almost certainly be dissapointed as it ould most likely change again. are all the models agreeing, or is there stil one outlier bringing it way too far east?

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  93. as long as it takes a northernly track we should get a little something. accuweather has the state of new york with snow next week. nws hints if it takes track significant snowfall. at least the models bring it back after they change.

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  94. Only about 1" on the ground, but with 50+ mph winds blowing off the lake 1/4 of mile to my north, it simply couldn't accumulate. In the woods behind my house, there is a little more, perhaps 1.5". Central Wayne Co. looked like it was in a "no snow window" on the radar for awhile. Winds are incredible out here, shaking my old house enough to make my bedroom door clunk against its frame several times as the structure twisted and shook in the wind. As mentioned, I live 1/4 mile from the Lake, and I can hear it roaring loudly even inside the house!

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  95. Yep, too windy here in Hilton and not enough snowfall to. Accumulate. The kids are disappointed to still have grass. Me too! Oh well! I've come to expect that here, but I was hoping for a white Christmas.

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  96. Impossible to tell how much I have here at the Henrietta/Chili/Brighton confluence because there was so much blowing and drifting, but at first glance I'd say about 4 inches, as expected. Next week's storm gets more interesting by the day.

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  97. Was happy to wake up and see everything covered with snow in NE Fairport. The winds have been so high that we have areas with little snow and other places with 1 foot drifts. Really can't accurately tell how much we had, but it looks like winter! Hopefully more will accumulate during the day today and Sunday.

    Andy

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  98. This drifting is going to mislead a lot of people into thinking they got less than they did, because so much of what fell is going to end up in drifts.

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  99. I woke up, looked outside and saw snow! Yep, the weather team was right! It snowed! Thanks guys :) Lets see what next week brings. It will be fun to see what Freddie, Sam, Spencer, and Carly have to say about it. That is what it is like to read this blog lately, reading the script of Icarly! Drama!!, like a bunch of school kids fighting over 1) How much snow 2) Not enough snow 3) It is gonna miss us..Whaaaaa!

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    1. I will explain each item in your list, in what is hopefully a non-argumentive manner.

      1) A lot of us are weather nerds, we're going to fight over/be obsessed with every minute detail regarding snowfall or any other weather statistic.
      2) A lot of us are crazy for snow, we don't like when we get less than advertised.
      3) A lot of us have experienced big storm after big storm miss left right center and some direction that hasn't been discovered yet, so we have little reason to not expect the same time and again.

      These items are not unique to this blog, they're present on every weather-related blog/forum, at least the ones that aren't tightly moderated. It's mostly youths, but sometimes even adults unleash their inner weather weenie from time to time.

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  100. Farmington. It was a bust in Macedon. 2-3 inches at most. Far from the 8" forecasted. I am happy to see the ground white but in the grans scheme of things it is NBD. Very happy for a white Christmas.

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    Replies
    1. 8 inches was the upper end of the forecast range, and confined mainly to the hills. Most areas north of the hills were expected to receive closer to 4 inches, and lets not overlook the blowing and drifting making apparent totals seem lower. I worry about tomorrow's warmer temperatures messing things up by melting much of what we have.

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    2. Look at the graphic at the top of the page. More will add up today-- right in the range as predicted. Definitely NOT A BUST. As I've said before you seem to have a distorted version of reality.

      Andy

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  101. The bulk of this event was lake enhancement, as expected. It took a little bit for the lake to get set up and in the mix last night, which is why some of you were calling for a bust. You gotta be patient (sometimes)! Actual totals have been difficult to measure because of the blowing and drifting, but as many of you have said, it looks like a general 2-4" or 3-4" on the ground. I have grass poking through in my yard, but my poor dog sunk right into the drifts and came right back in. So don't allow the visible grass lead you to think we just got a dust. NOT TRUE!

    As far as next week goes, I'm more interested in the Monday night little disturbance. This may be one of those guys that you don't pay much attention to but we end up getting a few inches out of. It's borderline, with it tracking slightly south, but that could be our next little "snowmaker." Then comes the next "big one." Both EURO and GFS look good for Thursday...for now, with a pretty decent snowfall (bigger than today's) if it verifies, with the EURO bringing ANOTHER double'barreled nor'easter up the coast for the weekend. GFS on the other hand, basically nothing.

    So enjoy the snow we've gotten, because hey, we got some! And let the predictions begin for our next (few?) rounds!

    - Stacey

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    1. Your dog story reminded me of the time I opened the front door after a snowstorm, and my cat BOLTED for the open door as he usually did in his younger years. He made it outside, sunk into the snow and BOLTED straight back inside. He never tried to escape the house again after that.

      I'm feeling good feelings about next week's big'un, though I'm tempering my excitement until closer to Christmas. The little one before it is definitely interesting though. Seems like a rather lengthy train of big storms is about to start rolling, hopefully everyone who wants it gets it.

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  102. Bring on the little guy and bring the big one too,and any big ones that come our way. snowmobilers need it. lets hope for more snow!

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  103. It is funny I was just looking at the Nam for Christmas Eve and day. There may be snow falling both days which would so great. The models keep moving this system further North. Like Stacey said it could give us a few inches to add to the white Christmas.

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  104. I know the GFS is all over the place, but the new run takes next weeks BIG storm right up the Hudson for a sweet storm for us. I know it will change 1000 times before that day.

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    1. Throw it out. Secondary lows don't develop over central Virginia like the 12z GFS shows. If I had to choose I'd go with the Euro, it's been the most consistent and has a more climatologically favored track. Its last run blankets much of NYS with a foot or more, including our region.

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  105. Models are lookin good all around. I like it. Also good job news 8 on the forecast for last night and today. Looks like a solid 4+ inches up here by highland park and some nice drifting happening.

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  106. snow has stopped here in farmington, can we expect any more snow to fall today or tonight or is this it? not complaining, just wouldn't mind some more if there was some. i like the sounds of next week, with three systems it sounds like we will be in for at least some snow, hopefully we get burried!

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    Replies
    1. I'd say you're probably about done in Farmington, but as the low retrogrades tonight there could be a decent LES setup with a possible Georgian bay connection which means some snow for some of us. As usual, just have to wait and see.

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  107. New gfs model moved a little east putting us in the sweet spot for the storm next week. Right now suggesting 8-12+ for western new york area.

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  108. Way to early to say what is going to happen. Monday we will know better. If what Stacey comes through with that clipper system it willl hurt us. If that is stronger it will hurt the placement oif the bigger storm. The stronger the clipper the more likely the bigger storm goes farther east. Have to wait and see. If the GFS/Euro do validate with their latest runs then we could see any from 10-14 inches. Time will tell that is just how I see it!

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  109. I think we will get plowable snow from this storm and has the potential to be a very big storm for us. I didn't want to over hype anything so i put 8-12+. But i will be very disappointed if this does verify as i will be leaving for maryland wednesday morning and miss out on any snow that does fall in the area. :(

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  110. I would say northern Hamlin got about an inch this morning. Not very exciting, but with the winds blowing it was good enough for 10 hour OT. We scrape the roads until our plows are worn out. No drifts and green grass in my yard, oh well maybe X-MAS eve snow will give us our white Christmas. The cold wind is great, it finaly feels like winter on the skin. Bring on the cold, the colder the better.

    I would not get to excited about late next week. I would bet money this one goes East. We will be on the western edge light snow, maybe 1-2. We will see. Atleast winter has arrived it has been a long wait.

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  111. Disagree Hamlin. The trend is further West on late week storm. I will not get my hopes up though like you said because we have been disappointed over and over again. I only picked up 2-3 here in Macedon which is not very exciting in the grand scheme of things. At this point I will take what we can get. Sorry to hear that you did not get much snow. The winds were way too strong and I think that limited the amount for all of us. That was my concern earlier in the week. I doubt Henrietta picked up 6-8 like a blogger said. I would be interested to see what the offical amount was at the airport. My guess 3-4 inches.

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  112. at least it is mostly white out there and ground is finally going to freeze. I am looking forward to hearing more about next weeks storms...is there any validity to the post that said if monday nights clipper becomes too strong it will effect what happens with wed/thurs storm?

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  113. Not sure what Andrew means about that but the system Monday night will not be strong by any means so it should not affect the Wednesday-Firday storm. The Christmas eve system is very weak and it will probably give 1-2 inches here with a little more SOuth.

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  114. ok, i wasn't sure what he meant either. maybe he can clarify. After readong the NWS discussion, they seem to be pretty much on board with a system riding a favored track for us to get a significant snow. They mentioned most of their reliable models have come into agreement on a general track. Is this the type of system where 100 iles could be a huge difference or will it be big enough that we would still get a decent snow even if it moved a little further toward coast?

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  115. The latest GFS takes it evn Further West which may bring too much warm air in if that verifies. The trend over several model runs is to take the storm further West. I just hope it does not take it much farther west or we could see a mix to rain to snow scenario.

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    1. I'm not too worried. GFS has been all over the map with this storm, while the Euro has been very consistent with a track near the coast, especially its ensembles. Besides, this run takes the storm along the mountains which isn't a favored track. Monday's 12z runs will be the tell-all.

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  116. The clipper stronger could push the storm more easterly not sure I can explain it. However, the latest GFS verifies the earlier one today. Western NY gets hit hard with heavy snow! It still early to be 100 percent confident but is looking real good for a major storm Thursday. Again just what I am seeing not an expert by any means. Wonder what Scott thinks if he has had time to look at the latest data?

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  117. Further west ok this far out because it mmay trend a tad back east. The clipper is also weaker on latest GFS that is good. Be positive Macedon if you want snow I just call it like I see it but also wonder what David and Weatherguy think they are pretty knowledgable not experts.

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  118. the NWS is saying either 1-3 or 2-4 for monday night which isn't too shabby. they were saying models were showing that little system was looking stornger than weaker, but is going to move fast. we will take anything we can get, and it will be especially nice being christmas eve into christmas day, should pretty to watch.

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  119. 18z GEFS mean is noticeably farther south and east than its operational counterpart for the post Christmas storm. Tracks to southern Ohio then transfers to eastern PA.

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  120. This storm will track back easterly and south and we will be on the fringes.

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  121. I'm still thinking a minor accumulation on Christmas Eve/Christmas morning with maybe 1-3" (closer to 1-2" for the metro area and north). The Wednesday night/Thursday storm is still too far away, but if you went with both the GFS and EURO right now, we're looking good for a pretty good synoptic event with some decent lake enhancement off of a NE wind, which is a better direction for us to pick up more now in ROC. That's if you went with the models NOW, in my opinion. We're still 4-5 days out though...too far for much confidence right now!

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  122. The there is another one after the Wed/Thur storm that could affect us on Saturday. Getting very active and interesting. It is about time.

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  123. Very early to tell, but I have a hunch that if a storm develops next Saturday it will track farther south and east than the one before it.

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  124. I saw some incredible pictures tonight of roads being cleared in Hamlin after the 77' blizzard. There were only one lane roads with banks higher than the dump trucks on both sides as far as you could see. It took Many days around the clock to open the roads to one lane. They hit cars plowing the snow that they had no idea were there. There were 6 and 8 FOOT drifts across the roads miles long in open areas.

    These picture made the 93' blizzard look like a joke.

    Is there a way to post picture on this blog. It is amazing the amount of snow in the roads. It must have been a storm of a lifetime and I missed it by years. I am very jealous of people who saw its magnificence.

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    1. IT WAS GREAT!!!

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    2. The blizzard of 1966 was great also. I was in high school, and the week before the blizzard, we had a storm with about 20 inches of snow. When the blizzard hit, the forecast was for 3-5 inches of snow, but we we ended up with 2 feet, with blizzard conditions for days. Everything shut down. I remember walking in waist deep snow in the streets. Oswego got around 100 inches during the storm, with the additional lake effect. Those were the good ole days.

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    3. I was 5 years old and lived on Wyler rd. in Hamlin. My Mom was stuck in the city for days with are 2 dogs. She had an appt. for them that day or something for them and ended up staying in a complete strangers house with the 2 dogs for days. I remember the monster size drifts and the front of are house faced east so the front door and front lower level windows were buried. The snow was so deep I couldn't play outside cause I would sink down in it and it would swallow me whole. So being bored I built a snow fort out of the drive way plow drifts. I had tunnels going all over and some of the other neighborhood kids helped out and played in them to. Not very safe but a great memory. :)

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    4. Hamlin, you could always upload to a file sharing site like Google picasa or tumblr and share the link.

      About the blizzard of 77, I was in my teens at the time and do not recall anything remarkable with snow on the east side of Monroe county. I even Googled it, and while there is plenty about 77 for Buffalo, I see little for ROC. Maybe Hamlin was different because it was far enough west and close to the lake?

      The big ones I remember well are the March 1993 superstorm and the back to back storms in early March 1999. 1993 was like 12 hours of winds gusting over 50-60mph and heavy snow accumulating around 22" at the airport. The drifting was obviously significant. In March 1999 we got over 40" in 3 days in those back to back storms. I think the city schools were closed for a week.

      Andy

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  125. Latest GFS not great for us in western ny

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    1. Not great, but it's actually better than the 18z GFS since the low tracks further south, and at this point that's what is important. Ensembles are more important than operationals at this point, and of course there's still the Euro which again has been very consistent with its ensemble mean bringing the low center along the coast. Would be a shame and a big knock against the Euro if it were to unlatch from that idea.

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  126. FWIW, 0z Euro is much colder than the 0z GFS, and has a coastal transfer like much of the other guidance as well as its 12z ensembles. GFS is the westernmost solution AFAIK.

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  127. Snow map from Accuweather meteorologist. Sorry for posting other websites links channel 8 team, I mean no disrespect, just making conversation... Using the latest Euro runs........ were in Solid 12-18inch range... And Wednesday is only 3 days away...... Should know a lot more come Monday...

    https://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/34710_567560046591042_86747799_n.jpg

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  128. how does this map compare to precipitation amounts from other models or websites? even though that is from accuweather, it looks like it is a legit model. I know they over hype and forecast sometimes. Just wondering how far off it would be from something scott would look at?

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  129. I would expect that a winter storm watch is issued on monday because they will want to get the news out before the holiday. I am thinking we could easily see areas hit 18 inches with the storm somewhere in the NE with some of the areas up in the mountains east of Lake Ontario getting 2-3 ft of snow. This is one of those storms that will shut down Rochester which doesnt happen that often

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  130. Looks like the Euro moved east and that is not good forus?

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    1. Still better than a trend west and another cold rain event.

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  131. Hey where is Scott? We know there is still uncertainty but based on what you see with the models and all your knowledge of climatology what is your gut telling you about Thursday? Love to hear what you are thinking now. You got the storm yesterday exactly right again! Let us know ,let us know, let us know!Sorry little play on a Christmas song.

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    1. I'm pretty sure he gave his thoughts yesterday...

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  132. The NAM and GFS have a more west track and the Euro a more east. Most stations are going with the middle of the road whihc would put is in a good position for good snow. We will see. I wish these models would be more consistent. Don't go by each run. It will change and drive you crazy. I think we are in for a good sized snowstorm at this time. Hopefull that will not chage. DO not foregt Christmas eve and dat. We should all get a few inches from that to make it a beautifl christmas morning.

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  133. My guess is the Winter Storm Watches will go up sometime Monday night or Tuesday during the day. We are definately going to get a storm it is just what type of precip. Will it be all snow or a mix that is teh question. Either way I think we will get hit pretty hard.

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  134. The moutains really trouble the models on these type storm tracks. The latests GFS took the low alittle futher south and east. The models wont have this storm track nailed until Tuesday. Current GFS would mix in warm air in mid levels giving us Snow to Mix to maybe ALL RAIN back to Snow. Euro still has us on the western fringe with all snow but lighter snows. I still feel the trend will start heading this one East leaving us on the EDGE of the big snow. BIG SNOWS EAST. This storm is not forecasted to be nearly as storng as the last storm that cut west of us. Winds wont be as big of an issue.

    Time will tell give this one until Christmas before you start "counting your chickens" dont get excited yet.

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  135. Scott is taking some time off this week, but I wouldn't be surprised if he checks in on the blog from time to time. And I'm CERTAIN he will be tracking this storm more than any of us (and you), even while on vacation! John and I will be blogging through the week, of course.

    I'm still liking Thursday's storm. With the transfer of some of the energy to the east coast, it should keep us well on the cold side, and I'm still liking the wind direction for some decent lake enhancement. This COULD be a good one for us. COULD!!!

    I'll start a new blog later this afternoon when I get into work and we'll pick up there!

    - Stacey

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  136. Of course I'll be watching! Stacey and John will keep you updated but I'll be talking with them later in the week. Looks to me like a wintry mix over to all snow. These storms almost always track West of the mountains due to the potential vorticity equation which models have a hard time grasping until 72 hours out. I suspect the NAM has it right at 12Z today but still the potential for significant snow a new storm forms East and draws South colder air.

    Scott

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  137. Not sure what you just said Scott? Likely we do get a big snow storm or more rain? I think this storm is not that strong with precipitation either way.

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    1. The 12z GFS spits out over 1.2 inches of QPF for our region. That's a rather sizable amount. And despite being furthest west amongst all of the guidance there isn't a drop of plain rain to be seen.

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    2. I stand corrected, NAM and SREF are furthest west.

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  138. mix to snow, then if the other low forms on the coast could be a significant snowfall. first we have a 1 to 3 inch event, then euclid arrives with?

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  139. Anon, why are you saying that this storm does not have a lot of precip with it. The models are spitting out quite a bit. It looks to me like a 6-12 snowfall. Definataely warning criteria.

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  140. the one for tommorrow night doesn't (1-3). the one for wed-thursday does.

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  141. I would think they would issue winter storm watches tomorrow afternoon because they will want the public to have them before the holiday since many people will base travel plans on the storm system

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  142. Winter storm watches were just issued down in southern IL and MO for this storm system so it is heading this way

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  143. Latest NWS BUF AFD:

    AT THIS JUNCTURE...STILL TEND TO FAVOR THE ECMWF-LED CAMP OF A MORE
    SOUTHERLY TRACK AND AN ALL SNOW EVENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THIS
    MODEL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR THREE STRAIGHT
    DAYS NOW. WHILE WE CANNOT YET RULE OUT A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK THAT
    WOULD PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A MIX AS PER THE NAM AND TO A LESSER
    EXTENT THE GFS...JUST DO NOT TRUST THE NAM THIS FAR OUT...AS
    EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT IT IS TYPICALLY MUCH LESS RELIABLE AT THIS
    STAGE COMPARED TO THE OTHER GUIDANCE PACKAGES. DISCOUNTING THE NAM
    LEAVES ONLY THE GFS SUGGESTING A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR A MIX...AND
    AM NOT ABOUT TO INDICATE CHANCES OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET THREE
    DAYS OUT. THUS...WILL KEEP PTYPE IN THE FORM OF ALL SNOW FOR NOW. IF
    THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...QPF TOTALS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL
    REMAIN INDICATIVE OF A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FROM
    WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
    BE HIGHLIGHTED WITHIN THE HWO.

    This is in the Short Term section, so we're getting rather close to crunch time.

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