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Friday, March 1

Blustery, Limited Snows This Weekend

Written by John DiPasquale:

It will be a wintry first weekend of March, but no big snows are expected.  Minor accumulations of snow, a coating to an inch or two, will likely occur at times, especially Friday night & Saturday night, as big storm that affected us back on Tuesday & Wednesday with the messy weather continues to influence us right through the start of next week with clouds, occasional snow showers & unseasonably chilly temperatures.  Highs will be in the upper 20s to low 30s through Monday, & then we will keep an eye on a potential east coast storm that MAY affect the area with some snow next Wednesday &/or Thursday.  Stay tuned for updates through the weekend into next week.

Have a great weekend bloggers!!   

33 comments:

  1. Hey John, thanks for keeping the blog alive while Scott's out. Some folks only seem to interested in high-impact, dangerous weather, but I think all weather is fascinating - even sunny and warm.

    What are the factors that made this storm so stubborn and long?

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  2. Glad I'm not the only person who thinks that.... Sometimes it does seem that it is all just whining over no storms. It's all weather! And what makes any particular system do this or that or something else is of interest. Thanks to the News 8 weather team for a place to "talk"/learn about weather. Even if it isn't always storms. :-)

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  3. Yes, you guys get it.

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  4. Well do not worry about that storm next week because John said it MAY I say there is no way possible that storm will impact us. Way to much blocking for that storm to get up the coast. It is done for us to even think about. Of course that is the case but finally the big cities have something legit to track.

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  5. Look to the west the sun is shinning in Hamlin. The sun just brightens attitudes. It is nice to see after the dreary week of weather we have had.


    This last storm is so slow moving because it was cut off from the Jet Stream, there are no upper level winds to move it through, also there are no other systems to push it on its way either.

    As far as next weeks storm;

    I WOULD NOT RULE OUT ANYTHING THIS SEASON. I am glad John has mentioned it because it is something to watch EVEN IF IT DOES MISS US.
    I SAY WAIT TILL MONDAY BEFORE CHOOSING SIDES EITHER WAY.

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  6. I agree with you guys about some folks seem to have an unrealistic expectation that we get storm after storm in the winter. I don't have the data (wish I did as I'd love to analyze), but it seems to me that we get a 15" plus storm once once every few years, and that most of our snow comes 1"-6" at a time.

    I did find an interesting chart that shows the number of days with 1", 6" and 12+" on the ground each season. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/ROCsnodep.htm Not sure what to make of it yet, but it seems since 1980 there is less snow on the ground.

    Andy

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  7. Hamlin Plower this I repeat this storm will not be near us next week. There is no way it is getting up the east coast with the blocking in place. Maybe Boston gets in involved but that is as far as it gets. Again repeat after me this storm will have zero impact on Western, NY.

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  8. ANONYMOUS, that maybe so; BUT, to claim with one hundred percent confidence that a storm which is five days out will not effect us at all, that seems a bit SILLY to me. I also THINK it will track south and east. Yes, I repeat I THINK it will track south and east. WHO KNOWS is all that I am saying at this point. Time will tell.

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  9. Well, I am signing off until next winter. I think we can officially call this winter another lack-luster one. 2 years in a row. Hopefully the trend will change next winter, but I doubt it. I think we are in another decade, like the 80's, where we receive well below normal snowfall and little to no storms. We will see. This winter:

    * Colder than last year by far.
    * One medum sized storm in December.
    * One minor storm in February.
    * Lake effect, for most, was minor this year. Except for Hamlin.
    * At least 30" below normal snowfall, officially.
    * Normal rainfall equivelant.

    The possible East coast storm this week will MISS us without a doubt. It will get shunted to the South and East. I believe March will be a lamb this year just like previous years and we will head right into spring, which I am looking forward to.

    Have a great spring and summer everyone and let's hope for a better 2013-2014 winter. I am hoping for a dry and warm summer.

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  10. Macedon how do you conclude we are at least 30" below normal? Our 73 year average is 89,we are at 64 season to date. I bet we end the season only 10" shy of normal.

    Again where are you getting your data?

    Andy

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  11. Hi Andy,

    Our average yearly snowfall from 1981 -2010 is not 89" it is 99.5".

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    Replies
    1. They increased our annual snowfall average several years ago.

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  12. Why are you only looking at data since 1980? That seems a very short duration.

    Our average since 1940 is 89".

    Andy

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    Replies
    1. And why did they increase our snowfall several years ago as you say. Where is your source? Was there something wrong with the data? Because if not it seems like statistical manipulation.

      Andy

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    2. Also let me clarify, when I say avg I should have said median. I've used median because that represents the center of the data. Avg since 1940 is 94.

      I still say we got a decent shot around 80" before all said and done.
      Andy

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    3. They update the 30 year average every ten years to reflect the latest 30 years of data. We are currently in the 1981-2010 time frame, which began being used in 2011. The average snowfall went from 93" (I think) to 100". However, the average low temperature increased by 1 F for Jan and Feb. We will move to the 1991-2020 time frame in 2021.

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  13. Earlier this winter, someone commented to me that high snowfall is a recent phenomenon, and that perhaps we were going to have a decade like the 40s. That sent me looking.
    Since 2000, we have had 3 winters with less than 100" of snow, for an average of 106.59.
    In the 1990s, 3 winters below 100", average 104.98.
    In the 1980s, 7 winters below 100", average 88.78.
    In the 1970s, 5 winters below 100", average of 106.1. Of the 5 below 100", 3 were 90"+, 1 in the 80s, and 2 in the 70s.
    In the 1960s, 8 winters below 100", average 77.67.
    In the 1950s, 6 winters below 100", average 97.37 (the last three winters of that decade were 130, 140 and 161).
    In the 1940s, all 10 winters of the decade were below 100". Only one winter was over 90". Average 67.24.

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  14. As predicted another storm that goes to our southeast and we are on the outside loooking in. The pattern that everyone has predicted to change has stayed the same for the last 2 years. I guess we can continue to wait next winter for the change.

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  15. Winter finally done as "The Troll" has been saying. Did you see the temperatures late next week? Very spring like and no more snow after tomorrow. We will end with well below seasonal average for snowfall as it has been predicted by "The Troll". It has been fun doing winter with you guys and now as has been advertised enjoy the spring.

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    Replies
    1. "The Troll" predicted 1 storm ...Wrong.."The Troll" predicted less than 60 inches for the year...Wrong. "The Troll" has predicted spring temps since early January..Wrong. And I see 40 degrees predicted for March 8th.. not exactly a heat wave..so wrong yet again.

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  16. I don't know about everyone else, but it's looked a hell of a lot like winter this entire week! And just because it hits 40 degrees one day doesn't mean winter is over...

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    Replies
    1. Absolutely a beautiful winter day. Spent the entire day outside in the bristol hills. Snow has been in the air all day.

      Andy

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  17. What is your future prognosis for winter Weatherguy? Is it over or are we going to get anymore snow not an inch here or there but SNOW?

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  18. Interesting last 6 days or so. Seems like we've had a bit of snow every day with even the most lightest snow falling nearly constantly. Looks like winter.

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  19. Wow latest GFS jumped a good deal NW on the run. Still to far east for us but still a few days out. Hey you never know maybe the EURO will make the jump too and then both take another big jog NW and then we will be in the sweet spot. Hey you never know this winter people can dream.

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  20. This Winter will never end! Look at the extended forecasts for March. Colder and wetter than normal. Spring will not be here for awhile. Last year at this time, I had tulips coming up. Like I have said before. All you Snow Lovers will get your wish. Snow will be on the ground until the middle of April, and then you can enjoy a cool and damp summer.

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  21. Form the National Weather Service:
    .CLIMATE...
    AFTER THE UNUSUALLY MILD WINTER OF LAST YEAR...THIS WINTER FOR
    WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK HAS RUN CLOSER TO NORMAL. THAT
    SAID...TEMPERATURES WERE STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH SNOWFALL BELOW
    NORMAL. TEMPERATURES AVERAGED MORE THAN 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
    THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER AND JANUARY...VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
    WINTER. HOWEVER FEBRUARY RETURNED CLOSER TO A TRUE WINTER WITH
    TEMPERATURES THAT AVERAGED NEAR NORMAL AND SNOWFALL JUST ABOVE
    MONTHLY NORMAL. THE BULK OF THE SEASON`S SNOWFALL CAME FROM TWO
    STORMS. ONE DURING THE LAST 10 DAYS OF DECEMBER AND ONE DURING THE
    FIRST 10 DAYS OF FEBRUARY.

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  22. I don't know what some people are looking at but the weather channel shows a warm dry spring/summer.

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  23. Don't believe the Weather Channel. How can you put your trust in a company that names Winter Storms?

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  24. Well again areas south and east of us get a nice strom while we are watching again. That is it for the winter. There are no more storms on the horizon the next 10-14 days. Time to agree with "The Troll" and really bring on spring.

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    Replies
    1. That's just plan dumb. No one can say for sure there are no storms for 10-14 days, let alone 5 days.

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  25. Come on keep that storm trending NW and we are in the money ha ha.

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  26. Wow, we are going to miss another storm. What a shocker!!!!!! Miss after miss after miss. The beat goes on. We get these little 1 inch snows. Boring!!!

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