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Monday, November 25

WINTER STORM + LAKE = PLENTY OF WHITE

BIG STORM COMES WITH BAD TIMING


Written By:  Scott Hetsko

Well you've been waiting "patiently" for my forecast on this one and I've got to say that I'm thinking what you're thinking.  This storm will take the perfect track for us to stay primarily snow although I see a time from 10pm Tuesday through 5am Wednesday where sleet will likely mix in at times.  As the coastal low pressure phases with upper level energy diving across the Great Lakes, rapid deepening will take place Wednesday afternoon and evening.  I think the most significant snow and blowing snow will occur Wednesday evening into early Thanksgiving morning.

Obviously, travel will become very difficult in our region on the most busy highway day of the year.  Rochester will get help from lake enhancement with a total range between 10-16" likely by early Thanksgiving morning.  At least the entire storm will take place over a 30-36 hour period.  We will have updates on the storm of course beginning this evening, stay tuned!




14 comments:

  1. I made a google form for anyone who wants to try their hand at predicting the Storm Total.
    https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1u6c4BH8oGIztrGC3LhctFX2yEiEV5RPZacwF510sMQY/viewform

    Clicking my name should take you to the prediction form, which also has a link to the current results.

    Current Results
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AhsaXd1CqdLydHNueUJ2dkl0MUx6VVluLWFDbDBzU3c&output=html

    Purely for fun. I'm supposed to fly out of Rochester Wed at 8. So I won't be able to update...Or more maybe I'll have all the time in the world? To update the 'Offical" snow total. Enter "Update" as your name. The spreadsheet will sort predictions by how close people are.

    Just for fun.

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  2. Wooooooooooooo!!!

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  3. Scott, so the farther west you go, Western Monroe, Orleans county, will see less mix and more snow?

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  4. Interesting. Scott forecast shows the mix a lot further east and having a less adverse impact on snow accumulation than the NWS. I hope Scott is right :)

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  5. I hope your right Scotty! I LOVE WINTER!!!!

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  6. I'm factoring in wrap around, lake enhanced snow in Wayne County Wednesday night. If that doesn't verify then I'll be wrong East.

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  7. So Scott when will the snow start? You said heaviest snow will be Wednesday night into Thanksgiving morning? I am wondering because I have to drive east on Thanksgiving morning can you advise please. Thanks

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    Replies
    1. Thanksgiving morning will be quite cold with lingering snow falling in our area. As for road conditions, I can't know that at this point.

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  8. Strange that Wayne County is still under a Watch. Are they not a part of Buffalos viewing area

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  9. They are but the NWS is clearly afraid of the warm air working in and limiting snow totals... Even though it is a possibility, I would go with News 8's forecast. They actually think before they throw numbers out there!

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  10. Other stations have 6-10 quite different than what Scott says. I think this will not be that strong and 4-8 a good bet by Thanksgiving.

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    Replies
    1. 18Z runs have me LESS confident, you may be right. Remember that nothing I say is guaranteed.

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  11. 0z NAM agrees with your forecast Scott...

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  12. Let's keep in mind that we are trying to predict future events here. Doesn't matter how much computing power we have, that's still a hard thing to do with exact details. May the snow gods bless us... and I need to dig out my snow thrower.

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