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Tuesday, November 26

WINTER STORM WARNING LATE TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT

Written by John DiPasquale:

Well, it's all quiet now, but some significant wet snow is on the way for late today through Wednesday, but the latest data is suggesting a little more mixing late tonight into early Wednesday, the intensifying storm looks to be a little further east & faster moving & not quite as much wrap around moisture as a result for Wednesday afternoon & night.  That's why the snowfall forecast from this storm has been cut back compared to last night & early this morning, but it will still be a good size late November storm, especially Western Wayne County, Monroe County, Rochester area, points south & west.  The least amount of snow will fall over the Finger Lakes due to a mix & rain expected to occur late tonight into the start of Wednesday.
Either way, it will be a slick & sloppy morning commute on Wednesday, & wet & a little sloppy east of Rochester.  We all will deal with somewhat of a slick ride home Wednesday evening due to much colder air blowing in & some light to moderate snow & limited blowing & drifting.  Some additional accumulations are likely later Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night.  Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid 30s during the morning, before dipping to around 30 by day's end.  Any lingering lake snow to start Turkey Day should diminish pretty quickly during the day, which will be good for all of you heading out on the roads to families & friends for the holiday itself.  It will be windy & cold though for the holiday with highs only in the mid 20s, & wind chills in the single digits & teens!   

Have a great day & stay tuned for another update from Scott later this afternoon.

24 comments:

  1. Thank- you further east as originally predicted. Again climatology tells you November snowstorms in Rochester of 10-15 inches like predicted yesterday at 4 do not happen. We do not get a great deal of snow in November often. Most of our snow on average comes in January. It is ok people just follow along it is better to not have this storm on Thanksgiving. We want people to travel safely. Thanks

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    Replies
    1. Does not happen or does not happen often.. which one is it?

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  2. This will be 4-8 inches at best in Rochester and 4 is more likely. Hang in there long winter ahead for more storms to us.

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  3. None of the weather offices are saying it is moving further East. They are stikcing to their guns. I still think 10-16 is on the table.

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  4. To be honest, when storms get this close, im done with the models.... I start watching radar to see where the heavy precip sets up. And I start watching temps. I think Western Monroe County is going to be the big winner. Just my 2 cents.

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  5. I am a little dismayed that channel 8's snowfall forecast has been up and down like a YO YOU with this one. 10-16, no 6-10, no 10-16.

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  6. Really Snowdog? If our area gets a general 10-16 then I will eat cardboard. Not a chance of that. 4-8 tops and 4 more likely.

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    1. We will have more than 4. Look at Radar, huge precip field coming.

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    2. ANON 1223, put a name to your prediction, otherwise it's worthless.

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    3. Looking for cardboard box.

      If anyone is interested in commiting to a prediction. Click on my name, or go here.
      https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1u6c4BH8oGIztrGC3LhctFX2yEiEV5RPZacwF510sMQY/viewform

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  7. Do not get mad at me. Just calling it like I see it on radar as David has said.

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  8. John forecast at noon had 6-10 for Rochester thru wed.

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  9. Hamlin was right in the earlier post when he said we are talking more lake effect than lake enhancement that will be adding to overall snow totals. I'm hoping my 8" prediction still pans out - we will see...either way it's great to have a storm this early.

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  10. I think forecasters are being more cautious nowadays because of the media hype, and tend to be conservative. Sooner or later one of these storms will bury us after a conservative forecast. Too many past busted forecasts in the past. Hard to blame Meteorologists as they have their hands full with storms doing a cha cha, as Henry Margusity from Accuweather would say. We all know 25-50 makes a huge difference. Throw in the lake influence and it's a nightmare sometimes.

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  11. John,

    Is there any concern for the forecast totals on the lake shore. Will the warmer lake water cause rain or rain/snow mix along the shoreline. With borderline surface temps and warm air mixing in aloft is this a concern or not.

    David,

    I hope you are correct I would love to be in the sweet spot. I have my doubts though. I suspect highest elevations south and west will be the winners on this storm now. Time will tell. Still a much better start than the past few winters, fun to watch it developing.

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    Replies
    1. We will see, just started snowing in Hilton :-)

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  12. It has just started to snow let the fun begin.

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  13. Am I missing something? Just please go to fullscreenradar.com and tell me we are going to get a lot of snow. It is going east and breaking up. Does not look that impressive to me? Please help explain.

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    Replies
    1. There is going to be a line from just west of Cleveland to just west of buffalo where the precipitation ends. The back edge of the snow is in the process of filling in. Most of the high radar reflectivity is going to miss us, that is with the warm sector of the storm. Rain and sleet reflects radar better than snow. The storm is still early give it time. Usually the front end of the snow don't even reach the ground as early as it has in this storm. Time for me to go push some snow around. Looking forward to reading new comments in the morning.

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  14. Anon 2:14 I see a huge shield of precipitation coming up the coast. If that come at us all snow looks like a lot to me. Maybe Scott will chime in on what he thinks now.

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