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Monday, December 30

"COLD" SNOW STORM LATER THIS WEEK


Written By:  Scott Hetsko

There's little doubt in my mind that at least a 6-10" snow fall will fall in the area late Wednesday night through early Friday morning.  Temperatures will be very cold during the snow so ratios should range in the 15 to 1 amount.  Ohio valley low will slowly transfer it's energy to a coastal low which will take over on Friday morning.  We will track it carefully over the next few days.

Enjoy the long, snowy Winter pattern that will be with us through mid January for sure.


78 comments:

  1. Man that is some confidence right there. Not that I'm questioning the forecast, but why such near certainty of a 6-10+ snowfall given the model spread and lack of sampling?

    Definitely love the concept of "long, snowy Winter pattern" though :D

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  2. Good track for us being on the Northern side of the Ohio low. Question becomes, how quickly does that low transfer it's energy?

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  3. The NWS out of buffalo going with the GFS/NAM- NBD for us;

    THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
    FRIDAY TIME PERIOD...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF STILL FORECASTING
    SIGNIFICANTLY MORE SNOW THAN THE GFS/GGEM. HOWEVER...THE GFS/GGEM
    HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AND HAVE THE SUPPORT OF THE NAM...SO FEEL THE
    DRIER SOLUTION IS MORE LIKELY TO VERIFY. SNOWS WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF
    LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.

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  4. Most of the GFS ensemble members are more amplified than the operational, which would result in a bigger storm for us.

    Having the support of the NAM at this range is like being a mining crew and having the support of a plastic sand shovel.

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  5. The euro has the storm way South and off the Carolina coast. I do not se how it could be a storm for us. Rochester is also going to miss out on all the lake effect through Wednesday. Warnings, watches and advisories are all around us. Rochester is in the snowless lake effect bubble.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Euro snowmap:

      https://twitter.com/WSI_Energy/status/417724640417427456/photo/1

      Try again sunshine.

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    2. Yes Roc. is doomed. No snow all winter. Protected by a snow deflecting dome. I sure am glad to live in Hamlin. The farmers fertilizer spray have eroded a hole in that darn snow dome.

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  6. So move to a snow belt. Rochester has never claimed to get a lot of lake effect or storms. We just wish would could and once in a while get the taste of a few.

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  7. You people are amazing. Rochester's Most Accurate states little doubt in my mind a 6-10 inch snowfall and people are questioning? Scott never comes right out early like this unless he is pretty confident so I am going with him right now.

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    Replies
    1. Right? Some of these people are the most persistently negative individuals I've ever encountered in any context. Always downplaying and going "durr no big deal" even when substantial evidence says otherwise. It's already happened at least twice this season and runs a big risk of happening a third time. They just never learn.

      Now that this topic has been sufficiently derailed let's get back to weather...been hearing about a sudden stratospheric warming event getting underway up north, which could put us in the freezer for a good chunk of the winter if it keeps up.

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  8. Not sure if Scott is working? If so when do you think the heaviest snow will fall between Wed-Fri? Also I know a week away but what do you think about that monster strom that has shown on EURO a few times? Thanks

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  9. More smoke and mirrors from NEWS 8...Sigh...
    Next week on the other hand, looks like a beast of a storm!!

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  10. News 8 is never smoke and mirrors. Certain other news channels, on the other hand...

    I wouldn't focus on next week's storm for now as only one model (Euro) is showing it, and regardless it's very likely overdone.

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  11. 6-10 inches is NBD.

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    Replies
    1. It's certainly not a catastrophe but it's not small stuff either. 6+ is enough to cause some problems. The impression I get when someone says "NBD" is that the storm will cause zero issues and isn't worth following for any length of time. Just reeks of downplaying to me.

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  12. It can be a big deal for driving if we get some wind. Isn't the snow going to be light and fluffy?
    Ray

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    Replies
    1. Yes, and there will be some wind to go along with it. Not to mention very cold temperatures, which combined with the wind could make for very low wind chills. So yeah, I wouldn't put the "NBD" qualifier on this one.

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  13. I am saying that 6-10 inches for Rochester is nothing. It is a small sized storm. Talk to me when we actually get a storm that gives us a foot or more of synoptic snow. Then I will call it a BIG deal.

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    Replies
    1. Just synoptic snow? What difference is there between a foot of lake effect in 16 hours and a foot of synoptic in 16 hours? Both are equally big for whoever gets them. Don't forget duration and wind either...an 18 inch snowfall stretched out over 36 hours with no wind is low impact compared to 8 inches in 4 hours with gale force wind throughout. Not to mention wind chill...very low temps combined with strong winds can make it dangerous to be outside in a storm that would only have a moderate impact otherwise. Timing plays a factor as well...a 5 inch heavy burst is a much bigger deal at rush hour than it would be at 3 in the morning. And if you get 10 inches of concrete slop it will cause major power outage issues, unlike a foot of lightweight fluff. A lot more goes into a storm's severity than just snowfall amounts, for example New York City's largest snowfall on record was a relatively low impact Sunday fluff bomb. And what is inarguably Buffalo's greatest storm of all time (Blizzard of 1977) produced a paltry 12 inches of snow in 5 days, but it was a severe storm thanks to extreme blowing and drifting of a very deep snow pack coupled with dangerously low wind chills. When 7 feet happened in 5 days there in December 2001 it didn't have nearly the same impact because there was no wind, the temperature wasn't very low and there was little in the way of travel for the most part. Snow is not the only important component to a snowstorm, despite the label.

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  14. NWS BUFFALO says NBD for us...How is Scott be so certain of 6-10" when so much uncertainty exists??

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    Replies
    1. NWS hug model runs about as close as you can. They change there position on scenarios every 6 hrs when new model runs come out. Scott has an intuition about the weather that I would trust over the NWS forecast any day.

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  15. Hopefully tomorrow the models will converge on a clearer solution. Yes 6-10 inches is a manageable amount in that time deration but still a nice snowfall. I would be surprised if the lake doesn't give northern towns in Monroe and Orleans counties significant snowfall Tuesday night-Wednesday evening. Initial watches and warning never include northern Monroe until it is almost over. Last Feb. we ended up with significant LES daily without advisories.

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  16. Kevin Williams said 10-18 inches looks likely. Thoughts???

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    Replies
    1. Overdone. Kevin is being the Master of Hype as per usual. Scott's 6-10 is far more reasonable, with the possibility of more than 10 in lake enhancement zones.

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    2. You made that up anyways, nice try. He hasn't stated any totals yet.

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  17. Believe the latest NAM puts us in 10 inch range?

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    Replies
    1. More like 10 centimeter range -_- thank the great magnet that the NAM is about as useful as a rock flavored lollipop at this range.

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  18. Scott is really confusing he just said way too early to put numbers on snow totals yet his post said 6-10 for sure?

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  19. He appears to be backpedaling from that earlier statement faster than a jackrabbit on a date!

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    Replies
    1. no wonder he's Rochester's most accurate. he flips so many times that he covers all totals and comes out smellin like a rose! haha

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  20. Another local forecaster had us in that 6-10 inch range too on his forecast tonight.

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  21. Or he's been trolling us bloggers this entire time >_>

    I dunno, maybe he gets overconfident sometimes but I still think he's a better met than any other in Rochester. The people on 10 are hype mongers and the ones on 13 can't tell their a** from a hole in the ground half the time. I also think 6-10 inches still looks good at this juncture.

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    Replies
    1. Come on, that's pretty rude regarding the other forecasters. They all do a good job, as does Scott and his crew, in their own manner.

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  22. What does Stacey Pensgen think?

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    Replies
    1. She's on vacation in Switzerland following the Spengler Cup, probably hasn't been tracking this one.

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  23. I am sorry, but I do not know what all the hype is of this system. The models have all backed down on the amounts. It develops to far east to really give us a good snowstorm. We will be lucky to see 8 inches from this mediocre storm. 6 at most is more likely. This will not be a BIG deal. The models have also backed down on next weeks system everyone is talking about. Not gonna happen.

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    Replies
    1. WRONG. The GFS actually UPPED amounts slightly, which is irrelevant at this point since the models can't even agree on a track right now. Yeah the Euro trended down, but it was absurd from the start having that megabomb last night. The NAM is a rusty bucket of junk and so are the UKMET and the GEM so I would just ignore anything they do until tomorrow night. Doesn't matter anyway because none of them have exhibited a clear trend.

      And here's how I can tell you're being ridiculous...this afternoon the Euro was the only model showing a big storm next week. The GEM is now on board. So clearly you pulled that tidbit from a place where the sun don't shine.

      ...I think I just got trolled guys ._.

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  24. GFS, NAM, EURO. ALL models.

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  25. This year so far 35 inches. Last year at this time 22 inches. We will end December just about average for the month at 21-22 inches.

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    Replies
    1. But clearly that's wrong, since according to our fellow bloggers it never snows in Rochester XD

      The Euro looks similar to the GFS now BTW. Amounts fall within the 6-10 inch range. Southern tier jackpot zone with 10+. I won't speculate or anything but it seems like almost every time the southern tier is progged to get the highest amounts the jackpot zone ends up much further north instead. Something to think about maybe.

      That was definitely an interesting 24 hour hype window though XD

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  26. Euro bad run in line with GFS minor storm troll correct

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    Replies
    1. Nice try troll we all know 6-10 inches isn't a minor storm now go to bed.

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  27. Did you see EURO recent run? You still think 6-10?

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    Replies
    1. Yep. Looks like it has about 0.4 inches of QPF which verbatim would equate to about 8 inches of snow given high ratios.

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  28. WOW I can NOT believe what I just saw on the Euro for next week's storm. Very similar track to the past two and MUCH STRONGER. 953.7 millibars just south of Ottawa. Would be a full tilt superstorm caliber blizzard if it verified. Sadly, SADLY, this depiction is extremely unlikely especially given the Euro's tendency to over amplify storms. Remember the New England megabomb from last night, and that was within the 4 day range. Definitely not boarding the hype train as this scenario would be completely unheard of. Just thought I'd point out how insane this particular run is.

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    Replies
    1. I kind of regret being so openly enthusiastic and I'm concerned about people taking this the wrong way so I'll reiterate: this was all about how insane the run itself was, NOT about any sort of expectation for the actual outcome which is still very much in question. This was an extreme solution and should be DISREGARDED FOR NOW.

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  29. Lets face it. Rochester and Western NY do not get BIG storms that often. This Thursday system will be minor. 4-6 of fluff will about do it for us. NBD. We will not see 6-10.

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    Replies
    1. 1966, 1978, 1984, 1988, 1993, 1996, 1999, 2007. All bonafide big storms, 8 of them in 47 years which averages out to one every 7 years or so. That's about the same frequency as most other cities east of the Mississippi River, if not better. The only notable city I can think of that does better on big storms is Worcester, MA. No single city gets a big storm every year, and I believe our perception of Rochester as an anti storm bubble is a major misconception. We're a small chunk of land in a big country, so simple probability dictates that the majority of U.S. storms will miss us.

      So with that said, where's your argument supporting your 4-6 inch call?

      Delete
  30. The latest GFS takes it even further out to sea. Good night. Talk to me when a real storm will hit us.

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  31. Yikes, can't you just be happy that we get half decent storms at all? The Mid Atlantic subforum of AmericanWx is on weenie suicide watch right now because they haven't gotten a half decent storm since 2011. Besides, a further out to sea track won't make much of a difference here as our snow is coming from the clipper energy approaching from the Plains. The coastal redevelopment affects New England and the northern Mid Atlantic.

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  32. The Weaker GFS won on this one. AT most we will see Winter Weather advisories for 3-5 inches as the average. More South and East. Winter Storm Watches and warnings will go up South and East of us. If we get a NE wind maybe a little lake enhancement but still this will not be a big deal at all. It looked promising a few days ago but as is usually the case we just cannot get a good snowstorm around here. Maybe next time. Happy New Year.

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  33. The NWS states it will be a steady light snow leading to a few inches by Thursday night. The tug hill is supposed to get another 1-2 ft of lake effect. The Lake Ontario band will not come on shore in the counties bordering lake Ontario so we will miss out on that as well. Bad day for snow lovers. It will be cold. That is about it. Next weeks potential. Not even going to comment.

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  34. The EURO totally blew this storm so I am not going to trust it for next week. The GFS has been very consistent and shows no such beast.

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  35. I could fill a 5 gallon bucket with all the tears on this blog!...smh

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  36. Those in tears brought them to the brink through fault of their own. They have an unrealistic expectation for major snowstorms. As anon on 12/31 @2:07 AM pointed out, major storms for a specific city in the East on average only occur maybe 1 - 2 times per decade.

    If you want annual big snows, then you have to move to the Tug Hill Plateau, the mountains of Vermont or the Rockies. Stop coming to the blog and complaining because your weather fantasies don't match with weather reality.

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    Replies
    1. Agreed! ....And be thankful for what do we get :)

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    2. Which is not much. Only 35" for the year. MOst of it fake lake fluff. Bring on spring.

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    3. How is it fake? It is a naturally occurring phenomena. Those near the lakes get it the most. Just because YOU don't get much lake effect does not make it fake fluff. If you are looking for spring perhaps look for a spring blog?

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  37. Channel 10 has not even said a word since all the hype from them yesterday. So funny!!!! We will not get much snow this week at all. In fact, there is rain drops in the Forecast for sunday

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  38. I have to chuckle every time someone tries to claim lake effect doesn't count as "real snow." So I guess the 7 feet of pure lake fluff I had to clear off my driveway in 2001 was just fake BS snow and doesn't count. Some of you are so pessimistic it borders on delusional.

    GFS is beginning to catch on to the storm idea for next week. Most other models have it too in varying positions and intensities. As for the Euro...well I think there might some semblance of a storm shown on that model but I can't quite tell XD

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  39. What I don't get is that the pieces of energy for Thursday s system supposedly aren't even in the states right now so anything can happen. Why is everyone so quick to call it a bust? Some of you ridicule Scott for throwing out some earlier numbers which is what you were all looking for him to do and now that it appears too high he and other stations are innacurate all of a sudden? Give them a break. If I had as Much critisism as Mets get in my job I would quite!

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    Replies
    1. A quick look at the prevailing theme of posts here makes it painfully obvious why Scott and crew hardly ever post anymore...

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    2. I agree. They could largely fix this problem by not allowing anonymous posts.

      I come here to see what Scott, John & Stacey have to say. I also like to read a few others like Hamlin Plow. I appreciate the News 8 team sharing weather insight with us in an informal manner before it's expected they publish an official forecast.

      I'm not a model reader, but a stats guy, and we are still trending to a 110" winter.

      Thanks
      Andy

      Delete
  40. In my opinion our area looks good for 8-10+ with this storm especially with the high snow ratios

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  41. One limiting factor for high ratios will be the fact that a lot of the snow will be the result of frontogenesis, which always produces small flakes. The NWS discussion points this out, although I think they're still lowballing the ratios given how cold it will be. Lots of small flakes should still come together for a 6-8 inch event IMO.

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  42. Ok News 8 how much lake enhancement will we see from this storm? Looks like a prolonged NE wind with temperatures in the low teens and pretty moist too. Could this storm surprise everyone with snow totals way above what is being forecast?

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  43. So it sounds like things are still on track for a decent snow? All the negativity kind of squashed the fun of watching it form and reading positive posts. I too look forwRd to reading posts from HP and the other seasoned veterans that have posted on hear for quite a few years. Too many anonymous posts in my opinion as well.

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  44. I still think Scott is on with his 6-10 inch range yesterday. I do not see any changes with that with the new model data. There should be some lake enhancement and the transfer time will be key that is always a problem with transfer lows.

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  45. Other source lake enhancement the key could be as little as 5/6 inches by Friday morning or as much as 10-12. Also other models starting to pick up on potential potent storm for next Monday. Stay tuned!

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  46. Northward shift eh? Not surprised, see it all the time in these setups. Actually it seems like most storms have a last minute northward shift.

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  47. Man I wish I lived in the Tug Hill. 1-3 per hour with 1-2 feet by tomorrow. I still say 3-5 for most with the Thursday system and a little more lake side with potential enhancement. 10-12 is too high. Just my opinion.

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  48. The NWS calls for 2-4 inches during tomorrow night only and another couple of inches possible on Thursday, with additional lake effect Thursday night on what would be a NNE wind flow. They implied higher amounts from Rochester east in the shore counties, and also said it will be a close call regarding warning criteria amounts for that area. So Snowdog I believe 3-5 inches is too low based on what I've read.

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    Replies
    1. I also want to add that they're hedging towards the higher totals portrayed by the NAM and RGEM, as they believe these two models will do a better job resolving the frontal boundary. And I missed this the first time but they're calling for 1-2 inches during the day on Wednesday. So going by their numbers, by Thursday night we should generally be in the 5-8 inch range, with higher amounts possible in lake enhancement zones. Lake effect will still be ongoing south of the lake.

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  49. I know it is the NAM but believe its latest had us in 12-14 inch range? When are the EURO runs? I know the next GFS run is shortly.

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    Replies
    1. Model snow maps are overdoing the snow to water ratios. Smaller flakes should restrict ratios to between 12:1 and 16:1 or so, unless you live near the lake where a better dendritic growth zone will exist. The range of ratios will be higher there.

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  50. Another channel has snow tomorrow with 6 inches plus and steady snow Thursday with more accumulation. I wish we could hear from Scott on what he is thinking now?

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