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Monday, December 30

COLD WEEK AHEAD!

Written by John DiPasquale:

Any linger flakes off the lake will dissipate this afternoon slowly but surely, as high pressure builds in & squashes them out.  Little to no accumulation will occur for most this afternoon, but another inch or two will be possible in the most persistent snows up near the lake & off to the west of Rochester.  Temperatures will be inching back through the teens for the rest of today. 

Tonight will be quiet & cold with lows between 5 & 10, but rising some late under a partly to mostly cloudy sky.  A clipper will then race through with a quick coating to an inch or two expected to fall for all on Tuesday.  The clipper will be followed by a reinforcing shot of Arctic air & some lake snows across the Northern & Eastern half of Wayne County & portions of Genesee & Wyoming counties will probably also pick up some accumulating lake snows New Years Eve night into New Years Day morning.

Late New Years Day into Wednesday night an area of low pressure moving into the Ohio River Valley should spread an area wide snow over us that will persist into Thursday.  The BIG question is how much snow will fall?  At this point, it's hard to say, but it appears likely that an accumulating snowfall is a distinct possibility.  It's just a matter of how & where these two systems come together, & how strong the main storm gets near the Northeastern coast???  So yes, a lot of questions still to be answered...Stay tuned over the next few days as we sort things out & as new information becomes available to us here at News 8.  Either way it will turn bitterly cold with highs in the teens & 20s through Thursday & may not even make 10 for a high come Friday with brisk winds making the chill feel that much worse! 

Have a great day & stay warm bloggers!    

28 comments:

  1. My gut feeling tells me that the EURO is overplaying this and the GFS will win out and it will not be a big deal for us.

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  2. Yes agree this is going far of the coast and will have no snow impact here.

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  3. As the models get a better handle on this storm it's becoming more clear that it's going to track well south of the Ohio Valley and off the Southeast coast somewhere. So for once I agree with the negative nancies, this storm will have little to no impact here. The big time cold is still on tap though and will make headlines.

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  4. Latest EURO still stands its ground with a bomb! Very interesting how different EURO and GFS are. Will be interesting. Help me out experts but if latest EURO verified we would get a foot?

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    1. Ehhh, more like 4-8 inches. Didn't quite stand its ground either as it went way south of where it was last night. Yeah it's still a bomb albeit not the uberhuge megabomb it was last night.

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  5. At least the Euro still has the second storm and It. Is. A. BEAST. That may be the one to watch more so than this one.

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  6. It would be 4-8 with 10:1 ratios? I think ratios with the cold temps could be 15 or 20 to 1 and thus put us at 10 -14 inch range?

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    1. Look how far south it goes. No chance we get enough QPF on that run for 10-14 inches even with 20:1 ratios. I don't think the south trend is done yet either, really hope I'm wrong though.

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  7. We can keep dreaming but we just do not get BIG storms here. This storm will have little impact here and most of us will still have bare ground come Friday. As for the storm next week, forget it. It always looks promising for us until we get closer to the event.

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  8. I give up hoping for storms her in Western, NY. They just do not happen that often. We can only hope for a little Nickel and Dime lake effect. It wil be a total waste of cold air.

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    1. They never did happen that often. You want WNY winter to be something it hit historically typically isn't.

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    2. Forgive the smartphone typo. U get the message.

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  9. Lol back away from the ledge Snowdog. I took a peek at the Euro QPF map and it's actually a lot better than I thought it would be. Still a sizeable storm for us with a large QPF shield and lake enhancement. Now join me in backing away from the ledge.

    It's way too early to make any call on next week's potential. All we can say is that it's there and has been for several Euro runs. No need to have a meltdown.

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    1. I am melting. Melting. I still think it is going more South.

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  10. Euro snow map:

    https://twitter.com/WSI_Energy/status/417724640417427456/photo/1

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  11. Scottie tweet:

    "Folks get used to consistent cold and snow around here likely through mid January in #roc and Northeast. Lawns all white by Friday."

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    1. With 2 inches of snow no doubt.

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    2. "At least" 2 inches ;)

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  12. just being curious here.....but some of you have spoken of a BIG storm NEXT week.....when exactly does the EURO show this....curious is all!!

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    1. Monday or Tuesday timeframe. Still a ways out and a lot of uncertainty on that one specifically. The bigger certainty is with how cold it will get...in fact Brett Anderson of Accuweather said today that the weather could get "quite extreme in terms of snow and cold across the Great Lakes region early next week." I'm not sure what exactly he means regarding the snow (lake effect in the snowbelts vs. widespread snowstorm), but I definitely agree with his assessment regarding big time cold, which could break records in some areas.

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  13. NWS about Thursday storm:

    THE GFS/CAN GEM ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE. ATTM...WPC IS LEANING TWDS
    THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLNS...

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  14. Why, oh why, do I see people posting discussions from NWS Binghamton when our entire viewing area is within NWS Buffalo's jurisdiction?

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  15. WOW PEOPLE!!! Wound a little tight are we. I would say the models are FAR from pinning down the track of late weeks storm. It could very well be a complete miss, HOWEVER it could still be a direct hit. WHO KNOWS!!! VERY SNOWY couple of weeks coming up looks VERY LIKELY. STOP TWEEKING OUT from model run to model run and look at what is right in front of us as it is POSSIBLE storms with POSSIBLY the coldest air we have seen in a LONG TIME!! It snowed ALL day in Hamlin and this is just the BEGINNING!!

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    1. It snows by the lake but the rest of us get nothing!!!

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  16. Ditto HP. The storm hasn't even ejected into the states yet so lets just wait a bit before we freak out...

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    1. Bit too late for that, Snowdog's been freaking out since November 24th XD

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  17. I would say people are wound tight for snow! Christmas is 360 days away and folks aleady have decorations up ;) But, on a serious note, I am excited to see what the next few weeks bring. Take a deep breath, grab a cup of coffee and be patient!

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  18. Okay if everyone has relaxed a little it is time to wishcast. Lets look past this weekends storm. IF the LAST TWO runs of the EURO where to even come close to verifying for early next week that would be OUR blizzard we have all been waiting for. It is just exciting to have potential storms on the horizon and nothing more at this point.

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