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Friday, December 13

WHITE CHRISTMAS IS LOOKING BETTER!


Written By:  Scott Hetsko

As has been well predicted all week, an equal opportunity snow will fall across the region beginning on Saturday morning.  Isentropic ascent (warmer air aloft) will cause a period of light snow to break out Saturday before 9 or 10 a.m.  Light snow will fall most of the day until the center of low pressure gets closer to the area Saturday night.


The 1002 mb low over Eastern Ohio will transfer energy to a new coastal low by early Sunday morning.  Expect temperatures to remain in the low 20s throughout the snow so using a 12-15 to 1" ratio we'd expect 5-9" by morning for most areas.  This will fall over an extended period of time so it shouldn't cause too many problems.





116 comments:

  1. Anyone else confused by the title of the post? lol

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    1. Just Scott being Scott I suppose...

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    2. A TYPO, sorry. I meant "Mild" to me "Milk"

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  2. Wow. I thought it would be more than that. NBD once again. What about lake enhancement?

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    1. It was never going to be a big deal. 5-9 in 24 hours isn't too different from 8-12 in 24 hours.

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  3. Glad to hear that the snow fall won't cause too many problems and will be over an extended period of time. Especially for the weekend with the events at Froniter Field, holiday shopping still to do, and holiday parties taking place this weekend.

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  4. Scott, you are awesome! Thanks, man, for you no-nonsense weather forecasting!

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  5. Wouldn't temps in the low 20's support ratios higher than 15:1? I've read that mid level warming can lower ratios in warm air advection snow, but then I see that most of our snow is going to occur during/after the coastal transfer. The transfer process would shut the warm advection off and scour away the warm air aloft right?

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  6. I still think closer to a foot a better shot with higher ratios and lake enhancement. The storm is getting stronger each model run.

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    1. Actually I think it trended a tiny bit weaker today, but it's a splitting hairs kind of deal. The time for models is done IMO, time to nowcast and watch radar trends. FWIW the storm seems a bit stronger than it was modeled to be by now. High ratios are tricky but I do agree that a foot is possible if everything goes right.

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  7. pleasantly surprised to come home to 6" of fluffy snow in Gananda. That was not forecasted.

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    1. The mesoscale is a fickle mistress.

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  8. It is snowing here in Gananda but the radar shows nothing. When we will get radar that is better than what we have. When that band came through this afternoon radar showed it was not snowing in most of Wayne county yet I picked up 6".

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  9. It was also nice to come home to 4-6 inches in farmington. Totally expected a few at best after watching noon weather. So even if this weekend trends less amounts, we got some today so by Sunday there will be plenty on The ground.

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  10. Been following Don Paul's blog, and his Vividcast output shows a general 6-12 inches across the region.

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  11. 9 inches of snow means I get out my snowblower.. that is a big deal to me. What are we hoping for anyway? Loss of life and limb?

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  12. Still sticking by my earlier post of 10-14 inches with 14 closer to lake. High ratios and cold air will help. There will be lake enhancement and the snow will be light.

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    1. The latest NAM would agree with you. May not be that far fetched either.

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  13. It looks like by the end of next week we are in the 40's. I hope the warmth does not last that long and melt the snow for Christmas

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  14. Will not it will be a day or two at best. in fact we go real cold the week of Christmas and talking arctic cold.

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  15. Finally, a real winter.

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  16. By Scott's map it looks like a widespread 5-9" across western ny, with some spotty 6-11" areas including Corning.....However all of the Elmira-Corning news stations are staying with 3-6"....how can there be such a gap 3-6 vs 6-11?? Also, we are under advisories, not storm warnings...someone is going to be way off with this either way...

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    1. The Elmira-Corning stations are probably just using the (quite conservative) forecast from NWS Binghamton. The advisories are in effect instead of warnings because those 5-9/6-11 inch amounts will be occurring over a protracted timeframe. I believe the amounts from NWS Binghamton will end up being too low.

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  17. The latest NAM definitely puts us over a ft.

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  18. Think ratios will at times will be 20:1

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  19. Back up to 4-8 inches in the advisory text, Wayne County eastward upgraded to Warnings. Forecast snowfall graphic has a general 6-10 regionwide. Baby steps...

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  20. Strange. Why we are all not in a Winter storm warning is beyond me. I do not get the NWS out of Buffalo. They are sticking to 4-8 though.

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  21. Interesting to look at radar and see lake enhancement on the west end of Lake Ontario on an East wind. If the wind stays East we will not see lake enhancement and thus we will be on the low end of the 6-10. The winds have to go NE.

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  22. I think a solid 7-9 with some 12 inch totals, NOT TO BAD. Very nice to see cold and snow for the holidays. The weather still looks active right through the forecast period with only a brief warm up. This has all been happening with a positive NAO. If we can get the NAO to go negative in Jan. maybe then we can get a big storm. For now I am very happy with this Decembers weather.

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  23. Are there WSWs posted for our area?

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  24. There are winter storm warnings posted for areas south and east only? Ontario and Wayne counties? Are we to assume that Monroe county will be getting less snow?

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  25. There are from Wayne county east. Advisories for Monroe west. I don't agree with them I think all of west NY should be under Warning, for this evening and overnight. Don't worry about the advisories or warning it is just an inch or two difference between them this time. All of western NY is going to get decent snows today and tonight. We have already received 1-2 inches in Hamlin this morning. Going to be a long afternoon and evening of plowing. :)

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  26. Again I stand by my 10-14 inches prediction. It was 10 degrees this morning in the city. High ratios and snow starting earlier than predicted. Storm looks pretty robust on radar can not believe there are not more people on this blog. Pretty good storm and winter has not officially started yet.

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    1. Snow started right on schedule today, not earlier than predicted. Also the snow has been very light but will fall heavier tonight into early morning. 5-9" with a few over 10" still on target.

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  27. Yes, I think you could be correct. I think this storm will have been under estimated by the time it is all said and done. I would not be surprised if 10-14 inches fell. The 12Z GFS has brought heaver snow further west and is in good agreement with the NAM. The NWS has missed this storm with only advisories for Monroe, Orleans and Livingston counties.

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  28. Its been snowing super lightly all morning in farmington. Maybe an inch. I know they said mote tonight than today. Any concern that its barely snowing? Are we still on a good track? When does heavier snow start?

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  29. The Moderate snow is on the west side of Roc. moving north and east. The east side of Roc. will get heavier snow this evening and the overnight. Don't worry your snow is coming.

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  30. The secondary low taking over is going to be further NW which means I am increasing my totals for Rochester to 12-15 inches by tomorrow morning. This is going to be a pretty big storm.

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  31. NWS now has warnings Monroe Orleans Livingston . They must have read this blog page.

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  32. They have 6-10 totals. I think 9-10 inches will be a common total.

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  33. This one may bust just do not be surprised.

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  34. Every storm has varying degrees of bust potential. This one has low bust potential IMO.

    Keep in mind that, unlike a true nor'easter, the wind will be E rather than NE throughout most of the storm, so lake enhancement won't be much of a factor until the tail end. That makes this storm an...uh...an eas'easter? Yeah, I'm going with eas'easter.

    BRB, off to trademark the term "eas,easter."

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  35. Any update from News 8 on how things are unfolding? More or less than their original 5-9? Or that is still about right?

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  36. I have had an inch so far today. Pretty weak so far. If it continues like this I will wake up to 2 inches.

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    1. It's supposed to pick up rather drastically after 7pm. I heard it's been overachieving further west so we're still in good shape.

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  37. The winds are NE in buffalo. Hopefully that will transition further East. If that happens our snow totals will increase.

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  38. This is pretty much going as predicted with the over night hours being critical for snow totals.

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  39. Man do I love reading things like this; from the NWS AFD:

    "THERE IS ALSO A STRONG SUGGESTION IN SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A TROWAL AIRSTREAM WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE CYCLONE...WHICH WILL ENHANCE ASCENT IN THE COMMA HEAD. ALL OF THIS SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO SUPPORT A 3-5 HOUR PERIOD OF DEEP LAYER ASCENT AND ATTENDANT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.

    THE TRACK OF THE MOST FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL DYNAMICS SUGGEST THE BEST POTENTIAL PLACEMENT FOR A COMMA HEAD OF HEAVIER PRECIP RATES AND SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE GARCIA METHOD SUGGESTS A SOLID 6 INCHES IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD WITHIN THIS AREA JUST FROM THE WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN SNOW...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A COMMA HEAD ALONG AND JUST LEFT OF 850MB CYCLONE TRACK MAY BOOST THIS JUST A LITTLE MORE."

    Really makes it feel like a true winter storm.

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  40. Sounds like this storm could turn out to be rather...ELECTRA-FYING

    MUAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

    ...i'll see myself out ._.

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  41. The IMADRK Model has the bulk of this storm right over Rochester, and then stalling. I'm calling for blizzard conditions throughout the evening and then on into late tomorrow. Storm totals will be in the 18-24" range with higher totals along the lake shore. I suggest heading to the grocery store while you can. No Way this one will miss, no chance of bust.

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    1. I like your spirit, but few storms in the last 50 years were enough to prevent a trip to the grocery store.

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    2. I all seriousness my parents used to tell me of really bad Winters in the 60's and 70's. Is it maybe every so often we have a run of bad Winters and then a stretch of so so ones? Just curious, a lot of you folks know more about this than me. Maybe my blizzard prediction will come true...some day ;-)

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    3. As far as I know/remember there are only 3 in my lifetime (50 years).

      Blizzard of 1966 - check out the nice News 8 video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=99MV_yu7U3s --- I was too young to remember much, but I remember we needed a front loader to clear our driveway due to drifts up over the post lamp.

      March 1993 Blizzard

      March 1999 (if I recall correctly) we had two storms within ~3-4 days that dumped over 20" each. City schools were closed for a week.

      Others talk about 1977 or 1978, but I don't recall that one, and that one had far less impact on the east side of Monroe county. Or I was just too aloof of a teen to remember :)

      Andy

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    4. Thanks Andy!!!

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  42. Snowing lightly here in Greece. Maybe we won't get heavy snow but the light stuff (which has gone on all day) is slowly accumulating. Prettly slick out there too. Just got back from the malls, and it doesn't seem like the weather is holding back any shoppers!

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  43. Can not be that bad nothing from News 8 team. Radar looks like not much left to come our way?

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    1. Coastal redevelopment will create more precip.

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  44. 18-24 who posted that better stop drinking because we will not see half of that.

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  45. I'm really curious about this dry slot that looks to be coming our way... I understand the heaviest snow has been forecasted for late this evening, but I've seen too many dry slots kill our overall total in the past! Thoughts? Thanks

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  46. Yeah I do not the coastal providing more precipitation for here. It is moving far east. Think we are pretty much wrapping it up here.

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  47. Not a chance in h*ll this thing ends 9 hours before it was forecasted to. Check this out:

    http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=43.08661&lon=-77.67711639404297&unit=0&lg=english&FcstType=graphical

    Notice how the highest precip chances don't end until 5am. Shows my particular location (Henrietta) getting another 6-7 inches as well. The dry slot may give us a break for a little while, but the snow will pick back up again later tonight.

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  48. Also this:

    http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ003&warncounty=NYC055&firewxzone=NYZ003&local_place1=&product1=Special+Weather+Statement

    We're going to be just fine.

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  49. It is about done! It was nice to see the snow fall all day! Enjoy what we got as we wait for the next one!

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  50. Agree just look at the radar. Wish News 8 would weigh in it is a storm.

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  51. Anon 7:44 you say it will pick up later tonight again. But seriously look at the radar where is it going to pick up from? There is nothing behind and the coastal is going east up the coast?

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  52. Rich Caniglia just said it looks like dry slot will cut down on projected snowfall. If that's the case, we'll be lucky to reach the low end of the forecast totals. Of course the radar could fill in again I guess.

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  53. Only in Rochester would we get a dry slot to cut down totals.

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  54. The radar does look like it will be filling back in, in a few hours... so who knows, maybe we'll still get into the range that was forecasted... sure hoping for some lake enhancement though!

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  55. No this one will be a bust the heavy stuff is NE.

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  56. Another inch or two tops.

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  57. Rochester isn't the only place that gets dryslotted. Just the luck ( or unluck) of the draw this time.

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  58. This was a storm????? 2.5 inches in Gananda. What a bust.

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  59. YAY DRY SLOT!!!!!! LOVE GETTING SLOTTED.

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  60. crazy how fast the radar has changed, feeling better now

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  61. Snowing pretty good right now.

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  62. See guys? Everything worked out in the end.

    According to Scottie's last tweet, heavy sine is falling just south of Rochester. Thank god it isn't heavy tangent or we'd have some real problems...

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  63. I understand, trigonometry can do that to a person ;D

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  64. No official totals available yet, but at first glance out of my window it appears that this was most certainly NOT a bust. That dry slot filled in pretty quickly so I'd say it cut down on amounts by maybe an inch at most. With another 1-3 inches expected per NWS most if not all places should easily end up within the range of local forecasts. No 12+ amounts like the models were saying but I'll gladly take the 7 or so that I got. A few lessons to be learned from this (and perhaps some past storms):

    1) Never panic/bittercast when a dry slot appears.
    2) Models are usually overblown on snowfall amounts.

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  65. 6" in Greece, I'm satisfied :)

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    1. ...that's what she said... lol

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  66. Haven't gone out in it yet, but looks to be 6"-7" in NE Fairport. Very pretty out.

    Some of you guys are such quitters-- calling it a bust when the dry slot passed over us. If you watched the radar, you could see it filling in toward the SW.

    Seems to me the forecast was dead on. Nice job Scott and team.

    Andy

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  67. 2.5 yesterday and 4 more last night. 6.5 total in Gananda. Definitely came in on the low end of the scale, but that is typical. What was the official airport total.

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  68. Looks like the next storm is going to our West. We all know what that means.

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    1. That is the complaining I am talking about. Your glass is always EMPTY not half empty.

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    2. Snowdog,
      Not to be mean, but your negativity and sweeping assumptions have been wrong.

      For example a few of your posts about this storm:
      12/9-- will miss us
      12/10 - miss us...moving way too fast
      12/12 - 2"-4" at best
      12/14 evening: "That was a storm?"
      12/14 evening: Dry slot... this is a bust
      Those are just a few wrong proclamations you've made.

      Fact is the forecasters nailed this one nicely.

      Sure it's a bust if you conjured up 12"-18+" but that was never on the books for this one. Fact is those don't happen all that often here. Maybe every other year or so on average.

      Yes, most our storms our mostly NBD, because we know how to handle them and we know how to remove the snow and treat the roads.

      Try tempering your expectations and being more realistic and less negative when the extreme doesn't happen.

      Peace.
      Andy

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    3. HI Andy, Some of the things you posted above were not from me. I never said it would miss us and moving way too fast. Early on I said 2-4 from the storm and another 2-4 from the lake which is 4-8 total. Not so far off. I also never posted Dry-slot this is a bust. I said I received 2.5" by 11 last night. That is what I called a bust. I picked up another 4 " last night making it 6.5 where I live. I called for 4-8. Anyway, have a good day and enjoy the snow.

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  69. I would say Hamlin has probably 8-9 inches, hard to tell because of drifting. It was a nice little storm. The complaining all the time on this page is getting very old early on this winter, which by the way has already been very snow. Forecast was dead nuts Channel 8 not a bust at all. Still more active weather to come in the short term and in the extended forecast, where is your global warming now Al Gore.

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  70. I agree, no bust. Only ones crying bust are the ones throwing out predictions of 12 + inches. Scott was dead on with. 5-9. Its OK to dream but don't get upset when a storm doesn't over perform like u want it to.

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  71. We got about 3-4 more inches after the dry-slot here in the city, for a total of about 9-10". Nice to be at the top end of the range, and right on the money for the News 8 team. Nice forecasting guys!

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  72. Rough eyeball measurement from inside the house... looks like I got about 7 inches on the picnic table bench.

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  73. Wow the airport total was only 3.3 inches!? That is such bullturd I don't even...that's nowhere close to surrounding OBS. That includes my backyard, where I measured about 6 inches. I live 2 miles south of the airport.

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  74. I think Buffalo wants the Golden Snowball so they're fixing numbers cause we all know that 3.3" is false!! Regardless looks to be another active pattern starting middle of the week. Interesting to see how everything plays out before Christmas...

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  75. Enjoying this additional snow fall down here in Livingston County (Sparta) . Nice big fluffy flakes too!

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  76. That is one beefy looking lake effect band heading our way...

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  77. What way is that?

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  78. Are there any POTENTIAL storms on the models in the future?

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  79. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 15, 2013 at 6:42 PM

    Just back from my place in Oswego County. About 35" in total up there after yesterday's storm (which dropped about 5" up there). Lake effect settles quickly, so it appears as it is only about 2 feet on the ground. Further north and east into the town of Redfield, the totals are double that. There was a story on Friday from Ch 9 in Syracuse, reporting 72" of snow in Redfield, but it had settled down to "only" 41 inches. Ha!

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  80. Clipper on Tuesday with low-end advisory amounts, then a warmup for the weekend, then according to the Euro a big time storm potential a few days before Christmas. Verbatim it would be mostly south and east, but we're talking about something 8 days out on a single operational model. Still bears a lot of watching IMO as other models show it at varying strengths and tracks.

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  81. This has been one of the best weeks winter wise I have seen in quite some time! Measurable snow everyday for pretty much all locations and a couple heavier snowfalls mixed in there. Hopefully it keeps up as everyone seems to be getting along on the blog when the snow falls. Who knows, maybe we will beat our all time mark for snowfall in one season (161.7" back in 1959-1960)...

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    1. Bills might win the superbowl this year. Who knows.

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    2. If only they weren't officially knocked out of contention yesterday.

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  82. Do not see anything big on the models the next week or so. Looks pretty quiet for a while.

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  83. A couple people mentioned the NWS said ROC officially got 3.3" from the weekend storm. That must have been an error, because on the NWS website we officially got 6.7" for Saturday + Sunday combined.

    As for where we stand "officially" to averages:
    December MTD normal is 9.2" through 12/15 and we are at 14.8"
    November normal is 10.5" and we did 13.5"

    So far a much different story than last year.

    Andy

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    1. I made an error on MTD average and November averages quoted in my above post--- sorry.

      November average is 7" vs 10.5" that we got
      December MTD average I don't have, so ignore my number above.
      December entire month average is 20", and we are less than 6" shy of that now.

      Andy

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  84. December 23-24 looks interesting!

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  85. David what looks interesting on the 23rd/24th?

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  86. Models have been showing a rather strong storm going across ohio valley. Still way to early but the GFS has been prettyyyyy consistent and other models starting to grab onto this. Looks to he a huge rain maker up the east coast, real soaker from DC to Boston. Who knows if it will materialize obviously, and who knows the precip type. Something to keep an eye on this week. 7 days out

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  87. Hi. We got 8-9 in Avon total.

    Can someone explain why Erie is so active this year? I'm not a weather guy, but just curious. We have gotten more snow off Lake Erie this year, which is unusual.

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    Replies
    1. Mean westerly flow with repeated backing and veering over the course of a week is what did it.

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    2. Also, don't forget that Lake Erie often freezes over, which results in a lot of moisture being locked away!

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