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Friday, December 20

HEAVY RAIN, SOME ICE FOR A FEW THIS WEEKEND



Written By:  Scott Hetsko

Rain, heavy at times will fall in our region Saturday through early Sunday as waves of low pressure will ride along a front draped across the area.  The trick for us is to figure out how much low level cold air advects into Saturday night.  As I have been saying all along, there will be SOME ice but overall plain rain will be the dominant precipitation type.  The critical hours are from about 5 p.m. Saturday to 5 a.m. on Sunday when the highest risk of freezing rain exists.  During those 12 hours, between 1 and 1 1/2 inches of MOSTLY rain will likely fall.

If you're reading this from areas South of I-90, you really should not be too concerned with ice.  Whatever falls will be a lot and enough to practically rid the area of any snow.  Localized flooding along area creeks and streams is likely on Sunday as snow melt runoff combined with heavy rain may push some outside their usual geography.


44 comments:

  1. Scott,

    How confident are you for areas like Hamlin and Kendal NOT getting an ice storm? If it is below 32 for those 12 hour in Hamlin during that time of heaviest precipitation, How could that NOT be a BIG problem for those areas? I understand it might not be the Rochester area but we are also in the forecast area. There is no disrespect meant by my blog just wondering.

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  2. Booo!! I thought for sure this was our year for a white Christmas!

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  3. It wont take much cold air advection late Saturday to stay below freezing , today along the lake we have only managed to get to 36 in Hamlin. I think I will get my generator ready in the morning. I don't trust any forecasts right now.

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  4. Too bad. The snow is melting quick and will be all gone by Sunday in most areas. We have been so cold and snow for so long. Bad timing. We will see how the rest of the winter plays out.

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    1. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 20, 2013 at 10:54 PM

      This will just be a minor hiccup in between consistent cold and snow, I believe. However, with this Omega block setup that depends upon the SE ridge being far away and a cold pool of Pacific water, we will get a few more warm ups like this again.

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    2. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 20, 2013 at 10:55 PM

      No -NAO or -AO at this point. We are lucky we have the -EPO otherwise we wouldn't have had one flake of snow yet.

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  5. All we can do is hope for some lake effect snow after the storms passes to give us a white Christmas.

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  6. Boy think if this rain was snow it would be a big storm.

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  7. It's never a bad idea to err on the side of caution but I'm not too worried about ice at this point. In my opinion news 8 has provided a forecast that will alert people to the potential of ice without causing panic (and subsequently disappointment when the ice doesn't materialize). I've been looking at NAM/BUFKIT and unfortunately for us severe weather lovers it looks like nothing too spectacular happening this weekend. Just a general yuckiness/sloppiness if you ask me.

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    1. That being said, I did have a dream that we had an ice storm a few nights ago, and a few degrees difference in surface temp can do some damage...winter is fun. Let's hope for some whiteness come Wednesday - I'm glad the blog has been civil as of late.

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  8. Hamlin Plower, unless my local geography is off.. doesn't the first graphic have you in the most likely to get ice area?

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  9. Yes but it is said to be NOT of any significance, NOT an ice storm. I want to know how can we NOT be worried about a SIGNIFICANT ICE EVENT if it is below freezing when 1.5 to 2.0 inches of rain is forecasted to fall. It is 34 deg at my house on 3 of my 4 thermometers tonight WITHOUT a northeast wind and cold air advection from the north.
    I was just wondering HOW certain are the mets that this wont be a serious event for a few unfortunate towns to the north west that OFTEN get forgotten about because of our location and population.

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  10. Yeah its 35/36 at my house in Chili, 4/5 degrees colder than what was forecasted. I hope I'm wrong, but this has an unexpected significant icing event written all over it for some areas...

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  11. I am not saying we are going to get an ICE STORM in Hamlin, however I have NEVER saw a good forecast about an ice storm yet. In 1991 ICE STORM UNDER forecasted BIG time. Lived in Holley Orleans county about 10 years ago during a UNDER FORECASTED ice storm gave us 1 to 1.5 inches of ice lost power for 8 days suppose to be MOSTLY RAIN. I have ZERO confidence in forecasts for POTENTIAL ice events.

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    1. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 20, 2013 at 10:59 PM

      Ice storms are tricky. They require different layers of ambient air temperature. It has to be above freezing in the upper atmosphere, below freezing at the surface. That's more tricky to calculate than lake effect.

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  12. Only wanted to know how confident Scott is about this event for North West areas. :(

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  13. Hamlin I believe this is not going to be a significant ice storm for anyone in our area. This freezing rain line is moving much farther north than before. I think all will be ok with this just a lot of good old regular rain.

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  14. My yard is going to be an absolute mess.. dog is going to have to wear hip boots to poop.

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  15. Currently 31.7 degrees in Albion, about 6 degrees colder than what was forecasted for this hour due to a NE cold air drainage flow. Weatherguy may be on to something.

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  16. I remember the 2003 ice event and yes it was a surprise. It was a good deal of ice in April and caused a lot of power outages and trees down.

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    1. Not the way I remember it? I remember us forecasting the threat of significant ice the night before that event. I can go back and look but I'm sure that was well forecasted 24 hours before.

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  17. Has anyone just seen the recent NAM run? Am I misreading this or does it have the storm more SE?

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  18. That storm you are speaking of was a different Ice Storm that was UNDER FORECASTED for the east side Wayne county area I believe. The event I am speaking of was confined to the west side Orleans county, west. Gen. county was under state of emergency for days. It took place just before the super bowl in mid winter. I believe it was 2002, not sure though. Just goes to show the number of UNDER estimated ice storms in recent history for our area. Ice storms are often isolated events because of the fine line of conditions needed for significant ice to accumulate.

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  19. The NAM does not forecast an ice event for the area it forecasts the front further north and the sub freezing air stays over the lake. The NAM has been absolutely horrible forecasting any system this year. I would like to see the 00Z GFS. GFS has done a nice job forecasting storms this season.

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  20. I hope you all realize how difficult and LOCALIZED this particular ice threat will be. I mean we have been saying all night the threat is there for up to 0.5" of ice accumulation for areas of Western Monroe, Orleans and Genesee counties. I still like that area as the greatest risk. We can't go on air with this much uncertainty and scare people. Those words "Ice Storm" scare the ____ out of people and rightly so. Some areas may get enough ice for scattered outages of power and slick driving conditions. This is where we must now-cast. We'll watch hour by hour.

    Scott

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  21. Thanks Scott,

    I do understand the nature of this event is impossible to forecast. No disrespect with earlier posts. How is this limited to 0.5" of ice when there is so much rain forecasted to fall. I am not saying I expect us to get 0.5" or more, but is there the possibility of up to 1" amounts of ice for areas. Power outages and tree damage increases exponential for amounts greater than 0.5"

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  22. I think it's because a good deal of whatever falls as freezing rain will be runoff, especially with such marginal boundary layer temps. Ice accretion is more efficient with colder temps, and even then you still get runoff.

    But yeah, this forecast probably isn't going to be settled until the zero hour. It's a very tough call.

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  23. Thanks, Yes, that does make very good sense. I suppose it would have to be a much longer deration event with lighter rainfall rates to maximize freezing on contact. I don't mind some ice just don't want the tree damage and extended power outages.

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  24. Ice Storm Warning now in effect. Yikes O___o

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  25. Even Wayne county has been added. If the front moves even further south it could get even more interesting. The temps are in the 50's right now though.

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  26. Temps have soared overnight. Most areas are in the mid 50's. I am at 47 here in Gananda. The cold air must be starting to feed in???

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  27. It is only 37 in Hamlin with no wind. It hasn't warmed more than that last night thanks to the Lake being only 36. The ground is still very white for the time being with a few inches of compacted snow.

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    1. Wow! It's near 20 degrees warmer in Fairport.

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  28. I don't think Hamlin will break 40 this weekend, maybe we will still have snow left by Monday.

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  29. The wind has no picked up out of the North. The temp is now 34.9 lost 2 degs in last half hour.

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  30. All the snow in Gananda is gone. I hope for some lake effect Monday and Tuesday for a white Christmas but it is looking doubtful at this point. A week ago all the METS guaranteed us a White Christmas. I wish they would not go out on a limb like that because weather is hard to predict.

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  31. It is now 33.3 two miles from the lake in Northeast Hamlin.

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  32. Interesting....I'm in Hilton and it's 46 and most of the snow is gone. What a difference a few miles can make!

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  33. 49 degrees in Lyons right now. Been holding at that temp since 6 this morning.

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  34. M in Hilton are you on the south end of Hilton further from the lake. It has warmed back to 34.5 with no wind again.

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  35. I do not see an ice storm warning? I see flood warning not ice storm. Where did you see that anon?

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    1. You can find it on Channel 13 web site, they report the weather for all.

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  36. Down 15 degrees in less than 2 hours in Fairport. Now 40.

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  37. I'm right in the village.......37 now

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