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Monday, December 16

LITTLE SNOW FOR ALL LATE MONDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY MORNING





Written by John DiPasquale:

Brisk winds & very cold temperatures will be felt today with several inches of fluff have accumulated up near the lake shore today, but for most not much has fallen today & will not through the rest of this Monday.  Highs today will be around 20 with wind chills between 5 & 10.

It will be quiet & cold tonight with a little snow toward daybreak Tuesday ahead of a clipper.  A coating to 2 or 3" of snow will likely occur with the clipper late tonight through Tuesday morning, which could very well make for a somewhat slick ride in to work & school early Tuesday.  A few lingering snow showers/squall will be around Tuesday afternoon & then some limited lake snows Tuesday night into Wednesday.  Highs both Tuesday & Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 20s with a brisk breeze.

Thursday looks mainly quiet & more seasonable 30 to 35, but late Thursday night into Friday a warm front will charge in & try to sneak through with a little snow/mix later Thursday night/early Friday that should change to some rain showers for much of Friday.  Highs on Friday, as long as the warm front gets through should make it to around 40 anyways.  Then the big question is how cold will it get late Friday into Saturday?  This may determine what type of precipitation we see with the next system that may or may not affect us coming up from the South later Saturday night &/or Sunday into Monday.  It's a close call right now & a lot is riding on this event, when it comes to whether or not we see a white Christmas...The combination of a significant snow pack across the Northeast & lowest sun angle of the year I believe will keep us a little colder for the weekend event, but we will see...Stay tuned.

Have a great day & start to your week WNY!

 

     

40 comments:

  1. Going off a previous post by David. The most recent EURO look like a monster potential storm? Am I reading that correctly David? I know it is a week away but if that verifies we will get a big storm?

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  2. Seems to me so far this season the models have been 'fairly' accurate 7-8 days out? I just remeber reading every week last year how storms were in line to hit us and then changed track 3-5 days out. I dont look at the GSF or Euro models, just an observation of what people post on here.

    p.s. Big winter weather fan and Scott Hetsko fan!

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  3. So far it's anything from a giant dumping of cold rain (UKMET) to a monster snowstorm (Euro). Meet in the middle and you have the GGEM, which portrays a serious ice storm. Personally I am hoping beyond hope that a GGEM-like solution does NOT verify. The only thing worse than 2 inches of 33 degree rain is 2 inches of 30 degree rain that leaves people without power for Christmas. Luckily we're still a week away so there will be a lot of model tug-of-war before anything is settled.

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    1. Well said, and with references to the models you're referring to, what a novel concept! ;-)

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  4. I wouldn't look at models until Wednesday/Thursday... They're having a hard time deciding where to place the front and where exactly the storm begins to strengthen.

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  5. Well I'd rather not have a power outage or a flooded basement for Christmas so I hope the front settles further south than what most models are depicting.

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  6. Going to be interesting thats for sure. Got to see where the storm tracks and type of cold air we are dealing with...

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  7. A lot of this will hinge on how quickly/how much the -PNA weakens/+PNA strengthens. With no strong high pressure to the north and no downstream blocking, we will have to rely upon the southeast ridge being just the right intensity for the storm to ride up over the ridge into a favorable spot. The PNA is what drives the ridge intensity. If the PNA is too negative, the ridge will be too strong and we get mostly ice or even rain. If the PNA is too positive, the ridge will be too weak, the storm slides to our south and we stay dry. The former is the more likely of these two ideas, though I'm not so sure it's the most likely overall. Ironically enough, the +NAO may actually help our snow chances rather than hurt them since it will keep everything progressive and not allow the ridge to sit in one spot and explode into a massive torch balloon.

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  8. Don't look now, but the airport temperature has plummeted to 3 degrees...

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  9. Unless I am reading it wrong both the GFS and Euro take the Sunday storm through central Pa and into central and eastern NY but it brings up a lot of warm air. To me it looks more like a rain even turning to a little snow at the end.

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  10. It looks like a lot of rain as well with potential flooding. Saturday through Monday.

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  11. Great get the arc ready. Nothing worse than a lot of rain in the winter. There goes the white Christmas.

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  12. There is something worse than a lot of rain in winter. A lot of rain with a foot of snow on the ground.

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  13. Let's hope the models change or are plain wrong, and we minimize the rain and/or warm air.

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  14. Do not think that will happen going to be a soaker.

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  15. So what are our chances of getting some clean snow between the rain and Christmas?

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  16. I can think of one thing worse than a lot of cold rain with a foot of snow on the ground: a lot of ICE with a foot of snow on the ground. The GGEM has shown this pretty much every single run, which is slightly alarming. Luckily it''s just one model and we're still 5 days out, but it wouldn't surprise me to see some sneaky ice accretion around here.

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  17. The latest GFS has a lot of ice as well, but surface temps warm up enough soon after it falls to melt at least a good chunk of it away. It still remains to be seen if this depicted threat holds any merit.

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  18. My non- expert opinion. First there will be a SLP system with a lot of moisture. There are 3 possible outcomes. HP in Canada will either strengthen and push the LP more SE and put us on snow or no side. We COULD get significant ice out of this if the track stays through central NY. Lastly we could just get a large rain if it stays north of us. Stay tuned!!!!! This is just an opinion of a weather junkie not an expert.

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  19. The NWS is talking about a significat if not paralyzing ice storm for the Adorondacks with us being on the warm side. That could change obviously, but I think we need to be worried about flooding rain in my humble opinion.

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  20. Simply too early to worry about this storm because it's 4-5 days away. Ice is a concern of mine as well but I won't be saying anything about it until I have to. Not good to put that out there before you have to considering our history with ice.

    Scott

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    1. Thanks Scott. I hope all this snow does not wash away, but I also do not want ice. Hopefully the front will push further South than expected to give us just snow.

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  21. Regardless what this weekend brings, we could not have asked for a better start for winter 2013-2014 (this time last year, we didn't even have an inch of snow!!!). And as far as this weekend goes, this may be a storm where we don't know what will happen until hours before the event starts due to how freaking close that 32 degree line will be to our region... But as Scott mentioned, lets not start crying ice storm or flooding rains until we're a little closer to the weekend.

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    1. This is the internet. It's never too early to cry or whine.

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  22. Ice is looking like a possibility.

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  23. I'm just miffed that the upcoming storm is likely to be a colossal waste of great moisture AND wipe out a good chunk of our snowpack right before Christmas, possibly accompanied by flooding and/or power outages. Classic Grinch storm if there ever was one.

    Ironically enough, while last year's "snowless" December produced a white Christmas this year's snowy one probably won't. Funny how these things work out sometimes.

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  24. I do not see how we can get freezing rain when the temps on Sunday look to be in the 40's to near 50.

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    1. Two points to make:

      1) This won't be confined to just Sunday. A good deal of precipitation will occur before then with colder temps to work with.
      2) The super pronounced baroclinic zone being very close by means Sunday could end up much colder than currently forecasted.

      Therefore, ice is still a strong possibility.

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  25. NWS forecast discussion this morning sounds like there is a real potential for a significant Ice Storm along the south shore of Lake Ontario. Come on News 8 what are your thoughts today?

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  26. What would that mean along the south shore of Lake Ontario?

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  27. I remember in the past local mets would say how colder air pools around the genesee valley and counties that border the lake. I would think if the colder air gets trapped in these areas and rain falls in these same spots we would have some icing.

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  28. either way it sounds like a nasty weekend acording the the NWS discussion. flooding rain or icing does not sound fun, especially for people traveling or trying to shop. lets hope its more rain than ice. Other than hinting that a mix is possible i wouldn't expect Scott to way in too heavily on the icing until it gets closer. It seems that all Local mets at least are mentioning the potential for a mix.

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  29. This will not be a big issue more rain than anything. Particularly Sunday we will be in the 50s with rain so ice would melt quickly.

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  30. Correct me news 8 if I am wrong. But this system looks huge? It looks as if it has a tremendous amount of moisture? Some areas out in the Midwest are predicting 3-5 inches of rain?

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  31. Anyone have an update on what the latest GFS(12z?) model showed?

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  32. Scott just posted an update....new blog.

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