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Saturday, December 21

SATURDAY A.M ICE UPDATE

Written by:  Scott Hetsko


Ice forecast remains uncertain tonight into Sunday morning.  My gut tells me that enough freezing rain will fall in some towns to cause some power outages and poor driving conditions.  Temperatures are expected to fall into the lower 30s this evening for many within 15-20 miles of Lake Ontario.  At the same time, steady to heavy rain will be surging north as the next wave of low pressure rides the front.

I know many would like absolutes but in this type of setup, there are none.  The impact will vary greatly town to town with many getting mostly plain rain while others in western Monroe, Orleans and Genesee counties may get 0.5" or more of ice.  

We will continue to update the forecast here and on air





37 comments:

  1. I do not know where the freezing rain line goes but man look at the radar it is one impressive wave of moisture coming up. Does anyone know how much we would get if it was all snow? It has to be an impressive amount.

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  2. Is northern NY like Potsdam and north looking to get bad damage from ice?

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    Replies
    1. Yes, they will likely get the worst of the ice although the heaviest precipitation may stay South of there.

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  3. We would not have all of this moisture if we were on the cold side of this storm. This is the warm conveyor belt of moisture associated with the warm side of the system. If it where a snow storm 8-12 would probably do it.

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    1. Isentropic lift occurs near and North of the boundary. Total snow would be more like 18-24" if it fell as all snow.

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    2. Ugh, what could've been...

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    3. I would have much rather had 2' of snow over rain and ice, oh well too bad we will have to take what we get, like it or not.

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  4. Just drove back home from Geneva. At noon, it was 52 degrees in Geneva. When i got back to Lyons....about 14 miles...the temp was 42. I see what Scott means about a few miles making a huge difference.

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  5. The temp is now 41 in Gananda. I am so confused. It has gone up 4 degrees in the last hour.

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  6. How about this?...39 in Rochester, 56 in Syracuse.

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  7. Is there any indication of icing in the hills of Livingston county? I am wondering if I should fill a can of fuel or two just in case...

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  8. The front may be on the move south. The breeze has just started to kick up again out of the north here in North Hamlin. The temp has been 35 to 36 all day, but is now on the fall again. The temp is now 34 with light rain. We still have a few inches of snow on the ground.

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  9. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 21, 2013 at 3:15 PM

    Penfield started the week with about a 7-8" snow depth. 80% of that is now gone. Up at my cabin in Oswego County, what was feet of snow has been decimated by 45 degree temps and continuous rain. Still a large amount of snow remains, but more 50% has gone.

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  10. 41 degrees in Lyons at 3:15 p.m.

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  11. The Watertown area is going to see a crippling Ice storm. 1.5- 2 inches of ice is expected there and they will never get above freezing. They are going to have a lot of damage and power outages. I am glad that is not going to happen here. So close though.

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  12. Any updates from the Mets? New data should be in by now.

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  13. Wunderground radar is indicating frozen precip in parts of the region. Temps on the lake plain are in the low to mid 30s with mid 40s and higher dominating the higher elevations. Still looks like it'll go down to the wire for a lot of us.

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  14. When the lights go out tonight it's gonna be days before they turn back on. Roads will be impassable around here. A few hours of 40 tomorrow (I doubt temps will ever get above 35 actually) is not going to do much to melt 0.5+ in. of ice. It's going to get real cold real fast inside the houses. We are screwed.

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    Replies
    1. ...and this is why Scott doesn't go overboard with ice talk.
      You sound almost as come as this guy

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6zaVYWLTkU

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  15. It is 32.2 deg with very light NE breeze and moderate rain in North Hamlin. Nothing freezing on any surfaces YET but it might not be long now.

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  16. 35 in pumpkin hook (farmington).

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  17. 35 in Lyons at 8 p.m.

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  18. Where is everyone? This blog should be lit up with posts. This is the only weather to talk about for a while!

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    Replies
    1. Nothing to talk about. It is just raining.

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  19. Stuck at 34 in Gates.

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    Replies
    1. Better hope it stays stuck at 34.

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  20. So far so good. 33 in Gananda. Stay above freezing please. I think we will escape. Good news.

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  21. It is 31 in North Hamlin. Not freezing on any surfaces. Could the shallow cold be to shallow. Rain falling seem to be keeping objects above freezing for now.

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  22. Freezing has started on surfaces in Hamlin. Now the question will be HOW MUCH will ice will accumulate tonight?

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  23. That is ok. If it is not going to snow I do not want Freezing rain.

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  24. 32 in Hilton. Ice accumulating.... Just drove home. 34degress in City. 33degress from 390 all the way to lake. Only changed to 32 degrees when I cross east manitou on parkway.

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  25. Hey Scott any chance you can approximate when it will go above freezing tomorrow????

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  26. Watching downstream radar, it looks like those of us who are still a few degrees or less above freezing are still far from out of the woods. That is one impressive feed of precipitation heading our way.

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  27. Just north of Latta Rd....still rain.

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  28. In Brockport a layer of ice on the car and shrubs. The sidewalk is getting slick.
    Ray

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