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Thursday, December 12

Some More Lake Snow on Tap

Written by John DiPasquale:

Lake snows are now coming in off Erie & are picking up in intensity & building toward the north & east, as I type early this Thursday afternoon near Buffalo & points east-northeast into Wyoming County.  This band of snow will likely extend into Genesee, Orleans, Northern Livingston, Monroe & even spray Northwest Ontario & Wayne counties with snow late today into early tonight.  This will likely make for a slick ride home this evening, but during the mid to late evening lake snows should taper & settle back down to the south pretty quickly.  Expected accumulations are shown above with the heaviest snows anticipated closer to Lake Erie & the high terrain of Erie & Wyoming counties. 

After a mainly quiet overnight for most, except Wyoming, Southern Genesee & parts of Livingston counties where lake snows will continue with the heaviest likely to be in Wyoming County another shot of snow will move through on our Friday.  The snow on Friday will be from Lake Ontario lake snows be driven through by a reinforcing cold front due to come through during the mid morning into the midday between about 9 & noon.  A quick coating to an inch or two will likely fall with a bit more possible up near the lake shore, especially Wayne County.  The snow will taper to flurries for Friday afternoon with a brisk breeze & highs only between 20 & 25.

Friday night will feature a little bit of light snow/flurries, but nothing significant is expected, but Saturday into Saturday night a pretty large storm will produce some accumulating snow for us all.  Stay tuned for potential amounts Friday &/or Friday night.  It does not look like a huge snow, but definitely shoveable.  Brisk winds & colder air will settle in Sunday with some limited lake snow to end the weekend.  Highs over the weekend will be in the mid 20s, with much colder wind chills.

Stay tuned for updates regarding the lake snow & synoptic snow over the next few days.  The wintry start to the winter season continues...

Have a great end to the work week everyone!

      

24 comments:

  1. Weather Channel is showing 3-5", maybe 5-8 for us on Saturday during WINTER STORM ELECTRA.

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  2. Yeah, I do not buy the NWS out of Buffalo saying a heavy event. I am sticking to my guns with 2-4 for the synoptic and lake effect after that with another 2-4. Some areas are getting buried with lake effect while most of us see very little. I have had about 3 inches in Gananda. Stinks watching others get buried.

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  3. Hate the transfer lows always get lesser front end amounts. Think 4-6 a good bet for us.

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  4. I agree..though I haven't looked at this one yet.. tranfers frequently end up on the low side with snow totals.

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  5. Snowdog, it's lake effect!! As Scott would say it's zip code snow so it's expected to be feast or famine. And this event for the weekend is looking to bring everyone at least something. But with the amount of cold air in place you don't need a lot of liquid to get decent numbers... I have zero background in meteorology, but I'm going to throw out a 5-9" for this weekend despite the NWS saying 3-7". I really think temps are going play a role and the slower speed of the system will allow it to deepen long enough for a period of heavy snow here.

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    1. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 12, 2013 at 6:36 PM

      I agree for the same reasons ^^^

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  6. Yeah, I know Weatherguy. I just wish I lived in one of those snow belts. We have all this cold air and we just cannot get a storm going. Oh well. A thaw is coming by the end of next week and then very cold air for Christmas week. Some are guaranteed a white Christmas. Most of us. Not a sure thing right now. I am still thinking that December will be well below normal in snowfall for most. With half the month almost over and no storms in sight. We will see.

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  7. Think latest GFS amps this storm up? Has us in the foot range?

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  8. I would not be surprised if some spots in Orleans, Monroe and Wayne counties got 12 inches from Saturday morning to Sunday mid day. This type storm systems can be under forecasted if the lake helps out. I am excited to see what we get. We got another quick 2-3 inches tonight. Very snowy times in western NY this Dec.. Everyone will see there share of snow before Dec. is over.

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  9. Every single thing I've seen...model outputs, model trends, input from a few pro meteorologists (not including Scott, didn't get a chance to see his forecast)...suggests that the 3-6 inch call from the NWS is underdone. My guess is 6-10 for most, with 12+ possible for the lakeshore as Hamlin implied. All models have ticked upwards with amounts in the past 12-18 hours, and I fully expect the NWS to do the same with their forecast. Maybe we'll see an upgrade to a Winter Storm Watch, but considering the protracted nature of this event I'm not sure we'd meet the criteria (6+" in 12 hours or less, or 8+" in 24 hours or less) even with the juiciest models taken verbatim.

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  10. I agree. 8-10 is looking more like it for this one not including any lake effect afterwards.

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  11. I have to agree with all of you. The NAM and GFS have us in the 8-10 range without lake effect and enhancement. I believe we should be in a Winter storm watch instead of an advisory, especially the counties bordering lake Ontario. I hope so because I have only seen about 3 inches of snow this whole week from lake effect in Western Central Wayne county.

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  12. For what it is worth another channel even states that new model output coming in shows at least a 6+ event for us.

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  13. We only have a WAA not WSW why must be this will be a 3-5 inch snowfall.

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  14. All the models are pretty much in agreement now. They also have become stronger I believe. I think with lake enhancement areas north of the thruway will get at least 8-10 inches by Sunday morning. Am I looking at the data wrong?

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  15. What's everyone's favorite website(s) for viewing the weather models?

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  16. www.willitsnowornot.com says 10-18 inches.,
    Am I looking at the data wrong?

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    1. URL doesn't load for me... is that even a real site? Maybe my google-fu is rusty this morning...?

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  17. Weather Channel's projected snowfall through Sunday: http://tinypic.com/r/16baiwk/5

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  18. Winter Storm watches are up all around us. Not sure why Buffalo is not joining in.

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  19. AccuWeather's projected snowfall through Sunday: http://tinyurl.com/l9fjp5m

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  20. 1-3 day, 3-5 night by wunderground, so 4 to 8 total. RC on Ch.ten said around 6" this morning.

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  21. I think 4-8 is too low. With lake enhamcement I believe 8-12 is a good bet. All models are showing 8-10. We will see.

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  22. Just got to meet Scottie H at school 34 while teaching there today. I wish I could have picked his brain about this weekend but he seemed in a hurry. I'm about to check up on things but regardless looks like a fun weekend ahead.

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