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Thursday, December 19

TRICKY WEEKEND FORECAST

Written by John DiPasquale:

After a nice tranquil, milder Thursday, the weather will become a little unsettled later tonight into Friday with the first of many waves of low pressure due to move through tonight through the weekend.  Initially, the precipitation later tonight will begin as a little snow/mix, but will changeover to a few rain showers & drizzle late tonight.  Little, if any, accumulation is expected. 

Friday will feature some off & on rain showers & drizzle & areas of fog.  Highs will range from 40 to 45.
Rain showers will taper to drizzle & maybe a little freezing drizzle &/or flurries late Friday night/early Saturday as the air turns a little colder behind a cold front that should sneak through Friday evening.

A large Arctic high across Southern Canada & the Northern Plains will extend itself into Southeastern Canada & the Northeast to kick off the weekend Saturday.  This will likely set the stage for some icing on Saturday & possibly Saturday night.  The big question is WHEN will the icy mix changeover to rain?  At this point it looks like it will happen Saturday night, but the longer it takes for this change to occur the icier everything will get, especially the untreated surfaces including power outages.  Precipitation will likely become heavy Saturday night before tapering Sunday.  On Sunday we feel quite confident we will just be dealing with some rain showers tapering to a few showers during the late morning & afternoon.  Highs will go from the 30s Saturday to the 40s Sunday, as the main storm moves across the area.  No matter what happens this weekend, it will turn much colder early to mid next week with a little lake snow possible later Monday through the start of Tuesday, which will hopefully at least ensure us of a somewhat white Christmas anyways.  Stay tuned for updates here on the blog, News 8 & our website rochesterhomepage.net  This is a very tricky forecast & one that needs to be monitored very closely, as the ultimate track of the storm will dictate what type & the amount of precipitation we see this weekend... 

41 comments:

  1. Boo. Bad timing. Boo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  2. But if you have to travel, though... it's a lot better than a snowstorm on Christmas Day.

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  3. Thought Scott said there were no ice concerns earlier?

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  4. I thought that also, the Scott said no concerns for ice???

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  5. I said yesterday I think this storm is going to move more SE than more NW as it gets closer. This is also going to have a lot of moisture.

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  6. I also as I said earlier thought the Canadian (CMC) model this morning showed us getting a great deal of freezing rain. I am not an expert but thought that is what it showed. That model is probably not that reliable though?

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    1. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 19, 2013 at 6:22 PM

      The Canadian model tends to be dead on in the short range. What is the RPM showing? That one is also very accurate short term (well, that is what it was designed for)

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  7. Anon 3:03 you are wrong on this. All models pretty set on track. It will be rain, rain, rain for us. We have flood watches for Western ,NY thus not sure why John posted what he did when Scott blogged this morning there were NO ice concerns. Not one weather outlet saying anything but light freezing rain a best.

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    1. Models can, and frequently do, engage in last minute trends that can substantially impact a forecast. They also have a tendency to underestimate low level cold air. We'll see what happens, although a serious freezing rain event is pretty much off the table at this point. Wouldn't rule out enough ice in spots to cause a few spotty power outages though.

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    2. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 19, 2013 at 6:26 PM

      There is NOTHING certain about a forecast like this one, even if all the models are in agreement at this time. That front drops 50 miles to the south, temperatures and precipitation changes dramatically.

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  8. NWS says best chance of freezing rain is Sat. afternoon and evening. Back to just rain Sat. night and Sunday.

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  9. How things ahve changed. From havey lake snow to Flood watches. This really stinks. I hate our winters.

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    1. Still better than winters in Missouri A.K.A. Land of the Cold Rain. Unlike them we've gotten more than a sloppy inch or two of snow from our recent storms.

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  10. I don't think Scott meant to imply we won't get any ice, I think it was more a matter of not enough ice to cause substantial issues. Most of us north of the Thruway will probably get a thin glaze at least, before the rain and warmer temps on Sunday wash it away. No biggie unless you plan on travelling, and even then it's probably a minor concern at most.

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  11. If this storm was all snow how much would we be looking at?

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    1. Assuming 15:1 ratios, an obscene amount, like at least 20 inches. I don't even want to think about it :(

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  12. The GFS has trended way further east... I have no idea what is going on at this point!!

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  13. I would not rule out the possibility of significant icing just yet. I have zero confidence in any forecast even Scott's at this point. The latest trends of the GFS's are to keep the front further south with a stiff NE breeze and sub freezing air at the surface in lake shore counties. This could be a very close call if the storm continues this easterly track.

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  14. Channel 10 just mentioned the same thing. The new models coming in keep the front south of us which mean ice or even snow.

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    1. Who cares what they think,two days ago they were forecasting it to be in the mid 50's for sunday.

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  15. Please check yesterdays post and today Anon 3:03 storm will be going more SE than had been depicted on models. The HP north will strengthen and push it SE.

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  16. We can pretty much forget about there being any meaningful snow until the storm passes and minor lake effect sets in. Too much warm air aloft involved, this thing would have to trend 50 miles further south to even put us into the negligible snow game and that's not too likely at this close range.

    Let's wait until the 00z model runs before making any rash judgments about increased icing potential. This is a single run of the 18z GFS folks.

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  17. I think the potential of major ICE is just as good as the rain potential at this point, for Niagara, Orleans and Monroe counties. If lake Ontario was not to our north and it was snow covered ground to the north I think our potential would be very high. We might have to wait until Saturday evening or just wait until it is over to be confident for this one. Either way I WILL be getting gas for my generator tomorrow.

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  18. FROM the NWS:

    IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
    THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN ALSO EXISTS ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO
    SHORELINE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE ROCHESTER METRO AREA...HOWEVER
    THE CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND POTENTIAL MODERATION
    OF COLD ADVECTION OUT OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY LAKE ONTARIO
    IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THESE COUNTIES OUT OF A WATCH FOR NOW.

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  19. Winter Storm watches are up for .5 inches of ice. Not bad. A few branches and a few power outages, nothing big which is good news.

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  20. Channel 8 still says this will not happen according to Stacey this AM.

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  21. Scott also was pretty confident last night that we would get a little freezing rain.

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  22. No new posts on updated models? Are we still looking good for no ice?

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    Replies
    1. All the regular posters are at Home Depot buying generators and chain saws

      ;-)

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  23. Interesting...a Winter Storm Watch alongside a Flood Watch. Don't think I've ever seen that before.

    A half inch of ice, while not a serious amount, is nothing to scoff at.

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  24. Anyone know what the latest EURO run showed?

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  25. All those weather forecasters (13, 10) who were saying GUARANTEED white Christmas are not too happy right now.

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    1. Scott also said white Christmas during a forecast last week.

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    2. Scott is a joke,his forecast for this weekend was totally wrong.

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  26. I think its funny how the watches/warning play out. Monroe county is under one, but wayne/ontario is not. I am in farmington and a stones throw away from the county line between all three counties. Is the ice going to magically stop at the line and turn to rain. Haha. I know they can't do warnings for half counties so its all or nothing.

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  27. ALL RAIN get your arcs ready!

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    1. All rain indeed...and some will be of the freezing variety ;O

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  28. When will news 8 give an update on what they think?

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  29. From the latest forecast discussion from BUF NWS it still looks like the line of demarcation between freezing rain and all rain for our area could fall either way.

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  30. Scott and the team have no confidence in the NO ICE forecast to close to call for sure. I believe that is why there are no new posts.

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  31. Sounds like a wait and see type of forecast. Models can't decide for us too many variables they can't predict if the cold air comes down far enough...watching their futurcasts on every station it shows all rain with ice north country and Canada.

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