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Tuesday, December 31

UPDATE ON SNOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY


Written By:  Scott Hetsko

Latest forecast on track for the area to get a general plowable snowfall over a 36 hour period beginning Wednesday night.  Looks like a decent deformation zone sets up from the Southern Tier Northward toward the thruway much of Thursday.  A bitter cold NE flow of air will likely enhance snow fall for the Rochester area later Thursday into early Friday.  The map is intended to be a ROUGH estimate with our official forecast numbers coming tomorrow.

On another topic, stop complaining on this blog. The purpose is to share information and talk a little more in depth than we can on air.  Can we start the new year by being a little nicer here?  I truly appreciate all who come here for information on our ever changing weather here in Rochester.  It's not an easy job trying to predict snow, especially here where there are so many micro climates to consider.

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

50 comments:

  1. Hi Scott!! No complaints here!! I missed you!! Sorry about FOX channel, I know they made a major mistake which they'll soon learn!!! Thank you for keeping us up on the latest weather info... it's NOT an easy job, you're right!! Wishing you and your family a very happy and healthy New Year!!

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  2. Agree Scott! Lets have a new years resolution with no more complaining. Just hoping for a blizzard this winter ha ha. One question about your write-up. You said the map is a rough estimate would that mean the number could go either way or increased?

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  3. Strange that the map shows more West than East.

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    1. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 31, 2013 at 4:47 PM

      I am guessing that is because the NE wind will create some lake enhancement, which benefits Orleans Co. Also, note the impact elevation has on snow totals.
      Anyone here who does not complain and just talks weather, thanks. I appreciate Scott mentioning the complaining. Also, use your name or a name when you post.

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    2. Yeah I thought that was weird too. Shouldn't the highest totals be all along the lakeshore? It's mesoscale model output anyway so there's gonna be some weird quirks involved.

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    3. Yeah, A NE wind would favor from Rochester East with Lake enhancement. He did say this is just a rough idea and they would come out with totals tomorrow.

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  4. Hear that Snowdog? Quit yer whinin' :P

    I'm really amazed at how the trends for this storm went from high octane clipper to nothing to Miller B clipper/noreaster hybrid to possible megablizzard back to high octane clipper. Just shows what happens when the important features involved originate from total nowheresville.

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  5. Latest GFS has us in 10-12 inch range am I correct?

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  6. Scott,
    Thanks for keeping us updated. I really enjoy the Wx insight from you and your team. I appreciate the fact that you share your thoughts about what may happen before a real forecast is expected.

    Also, while perhaps not widely read, this blog undoubtedly has helped the News 8 team gain viewers. Somehow I stumbled upon this blog a few years ago and it got me to tune into News 8.-- the News 8 team has done nothing but get better over the years.

    Regarding the complaining-- one way to reduce or eliminate the issue is to remove the anonymous post option. I'd gladly get a user ID.

    Thanks
    Andy

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    1. "Regarding the complaining-- one way to reduce or eliminate the issue is to remove the anonymous post option. I'd gladly get a user ID." <----- THIS!

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  7. TWC has us in the 8-12 inch range...I think with snow ratios above 10:1 and lake enhancement I think that range is a real possibility at this time.

    Mike

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    1. The actually have us in the 12-18 range by the lake. I do not believe that will happen.

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  8. Another local station 3-6 inches.

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  9. Scott,
    Thanks for the info. We will miss not having you on the early news. I can't stay up until the 11 on weeknights!
    Ray

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  10. The Euro ensemble mean takes next week's storm across central NY. Not sure what the member spread is or if there's any clustering. The mean surface pressure anomaly was around -24 so I guess that indicates a rather small spread assuming a decently strong system.

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  11. The most recent meso scale model shows impressive lake enhancement. I think Scott was correct with is 6-10 inch prediction and the 10 inches more likely.

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  12. So easy to complain, Learn to deal with the ups and downs , you live in Rochester not Miami. Scott does a great job, not a lot of hype, just good usable weather information.

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  13. Anon 8:13 could you explain what you mean/saying for us non-weather experts.

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    1. Lol I'm not an expert either, just pointing out what certain model guidance is saying. Taken verbatim it would mean a somewhat more favorable track for us. Other models/ensemble means have different ideas right now.

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  14. I think this is going to be a bigger storm than predicted. Look at the recent satellite water vapor images. They are pretty impressive with moisture.

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  15. When will advisories/watches go out for our area?

    Mike

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  16. I do not think watches will go up since it is supposed to start snowing tomorrow afternoon. I believe advisories should have gone up already. Not sure what the NWS out of Buffalo is waiting for. There should not be warnings since snow accumulations will nor meet that criteria.

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    1. I dunno about there not being warnings. With the way things are trending it might be a close call...

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  17. NAM trending stronger and snowier, water vapor imagery looks more robust than forecasted. Definitely feeling an overperformer here.

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  18. Very exciting weather. I am excited to see if the 00Z GFS trends like the NAM. I have lost confidence in the NAM after it burnt us on the years first storm. It is definitely looking like Scott's VERY EARLY snowfall estimate is ON THE MONEY. If the lake kicks in I think 10"+ totals are very possible some places south of Lake Ontario.

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  19. I don't really care about the NAM's projected precip totals as they're always overdone. The important thing is the trend and seeing if it continues.

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  20. The 12Z and 18Z runs of the GFS have also picked up on the storm the EURO has been hot on for early next week. It has a much weaker LP but the EURO was not very believable with a 955mb blizzard centered over northern NY. That is a little to perfect at this point. It is a little more promising and nothing more at this point.

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  21. WOW the NAM recent run. I know it stinks but has been pretty good this close to the storm. If only it was right about 18 inches?

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  22. Scott just did his forecast and seemed pretty confident by Friday morning we will get 8-10 inches in Rochester metro.

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  23. Winter Weather advisories for most of W3estern NY and Winter storm watches South and East.

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  24. I know it is early but I am reading the Euro showing the storm for Sunday/Monday a little further West and much weaker than it showed Yesterday. The GFS shows a further east solution and exploding over VT/CT?

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  25. Wow!! The GEM-Global model has a 995mb low over Easter NY giving us a BIG if not potentially blizzard like storm. The models seem to be coming together showing a pretty big storm for Sunday/Monday. What is everyone else's thoughts?

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  26. I was hoping the 00Z EURO would start to trend east again. Instead it trended even further west. I am worried the cold front will stall overhead or slightly west of WNY. The LP will ride this front. HOPE it goes east of us. It is early. I hope the WWA instead of WSW don't throw people off, it is still going to be very snowy, very cold and windy to end this week. Just think about, it is only Jan. 1 LOTS of snow and cold to come this winter. HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!

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  27. The EURO was not accurate with this one so maybe it will start trending East like the other models.

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  28. Why does TWC have us in 12-18 ranger but NWS has us barely in an advisory? And Scott right in the middle will probably be closest I presume. What do those two outlets see or not see that leads them to be higher and lower than Scott?

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  29. Models seem to be trending up on the snow totals with more moisture. Maybe 10-15 might not be so far fetched south of the lake? What's everyone thinking with accumulation's as of now?

    Mike

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  30. NWS is forecasting 10-14 for Monroe and Wayne counties. I expect we could see an upgrade to warning sometime by tomorrow morning.

    http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/gfemaps/StormTotalSnowFcst.png

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  31. TWC has us solidly in the 12-18 inch range...they upped there totals from yesterday with western new York east in the 12-18 range.

    Mike

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  32. I think a range of 7-12 inches will cover WNY. The 12 inch totals will be in areas where lake enhancement could take place. There is always a possibility of error when lake enhancement is involved. The intensity of the enhancement can throw a wrench in any forecast. No enhancement 6-8 inches would do it over a 36hr period. If good enhancement sets up in certain areas south of the lake 12+ totals no problem.

    I think the NWS will stick with its WWA for this event. I would not be surprised if tomorrow afternoon through over night SOME location meet the warning criteria MOST areas will NOT.

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  33. I don't get only posting winter weather advisories. With 10-14 inches forecast and NE winds of 20-30 gusting to 40, and a dry snow that will blow and easily cause white outs, and it being so cold that salt won't help on roads, what are they thinking? Does the NWS have a set criteria for advisory levels? If so I don't think they are looking at every factor.

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  34. It is now snowing in Northern Hamlin. The LES is shifting south as westerly flow weakens and the flow starts it shift to the East then Northeast. It will be interesting to see how long the band stays together as it comes on shore. I think we could see a quick couple of inches maybe more here in Hamlin the next few hours before the band falls apart.

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  35. I am going to back track a bit. I think dusting to an inch will cover the LES this morning in Hamlin.

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  36. I agree with HP. They should keep it at Winter weather advisory status. This is a long duration storm so whatever falls will be over a long period of time. It will not meet the warning criteria.

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  37. Disagree! The 12z GFS puts us in the 10-12 inch snowfall range and it will be cold with some wind. If we get lake enhancement which is a good possibility this could be over a foot easily for some areas south of the lake including the city.

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    1. It will be fun to watch it unfold. Don't let current advisories diminish the attitudes for this moderate sized snow producer. We will get a good amount of snow in WNY regardless of the headlines. Snowing heavily now in Hamlin already have our dusting.

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  38. You could be right. The NAM is pumping out 14". I just do not know if the NWS will upgrade it along the counties bordering the lake. Possible.

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  39. I hope we get an update from News 8 before I get called in to plow today.

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  40. Happy New Year!
    Now that November and December are behind us, I did a historical analysis of annual
    snowfall since 1940 for winters that closely resembled our Nov & Dec 2013.

    For Nov 13 we had 13.5” and Dec 13 we had 22.5”. This most closely resembles November and December snows for the winters of 59/60 where we ended the season at 161” and 91/92 where we had 111” for the season.

    For winters where we had a cumulative November and December of between 34”-38” compared with November & December 2013, we had 5 winters since 1940. The range was between 111” and 161” with an average of 130”.

    So in terms of history, I’d say this is a great trend for us snow lovers and we should finish the winter with well above our 90” average.

    Andy

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  41. I am still very interested in Sunday/Monday storm. I read some of the NWS offices conversation and most are going with the colder GFS solution rather than the warmer EURO. Most models show the colder solution which could mean a BIG storm. I know I should not get too excited but the potential is there.

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  42. I new positive Snowdog only to hopefully not get let down ha ha. I think ratios are going to be at least 15:1 for tomorrow and with lake enhancement a foot easily. Just my opinion. High ratios happen when snow is light, longer duration storms and temperatures are low which we are predicted in teens tomorrow.

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