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Friday, December 13

WEEKEND SNOW FORECAST UPDATE

We will publish our forecast for the weekend at 4 p.m. this afternoon.  Stay tuned as it looks pretty good for a plow able snowfall for the region.

Scott Hetsko

37 comments:

  1. 4 PM!!!!!!!!! No, don't do that to us.... No hints, no nothing. AHHHHHHHH.... I think I'll have to watch those other channels.

    wunderground is showing 4-8 for us. 1-3 day, 3-5 night.

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  2. SNowing like crazy right now in HIlton

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  3. Since we have a new post to comment on, and we have to wait until 4 for Scott's official forecast, I'm re-posting these, with working links this time!

    Weather Channel's projected snowfall map - anywhere between 5-12" by Sunday

    AccuWeather's projected snowfall map - anywhere between 8-15" by Sunday

    Can't wait :)

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    1. Accuweather is Centimeters...

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    2. Good catch, sorry about that! Damn metric system, c'mon this is America! I mean, it's not like metric has been the preferred system in this country since 1975... oh wait... lol

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  4. Lake effect has set up nicely. Looks like a snow globe in Fairport. This will put down a nice base to build upon this weekend.

    Andy

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  5. 2 inches of fluff in last hour in Hilton. Still coming down at a stead 1-2inches hour

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  6. With the HP to our north, the predicted track of LP and lake enhancement I believe from the city north there will 12-16 inches will the higher total being closer to the lake. Just my opinion.

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  7. It will be a nose numbing, spine tingling weekend. We'll have more than a sugar coating by the time it is all said and done around these parts. A Snuggle Your Sweetie Alert has been issued. Also, travel around these parts will be dicey.
    Kevin W.

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    Replies
    1. OH YUCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
      And here is Josh N. to tell us that from hilltop to lakeshore we will have to hold on to our hats for some of the most spectacular weather imaginable. Whatever your pleasure: snowshoeing, making a snow fort, or even grilling steaks on the barbeque, or even going to the Frozen Frontier, a good time will be had by all. It doesn't get better than this, folks. Chamber of Commerce weather: not too hot, not too cold. Goldilocks weather...

      (Dear Josh: go back to the Bahamas and take your cliches with you!)

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    2. ahhahahahaha!
      Well Done Josh N. :-)

      Kevin

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    3. Thanks, Kev. Wishing you a frankly flaky Friday, friend!

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    4. Thanks talk to you later, I'm still compling data for who is in the lead for the Golden Snow Shovel Award

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    5. Any of you boys have a topless picture of Nikki Rudd? Great cans.

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    6. That's a trade secret, Marty. You should have seen some of the chicks in the Bahamas, though. Hubba hubba 23-skidoo...

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    7. I don't have time for such things. I'm too busy making snow in my front yard during the Fall months

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    8. JM, your back I know its you.

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  8. Newest WWA just issued has upped amounts yet again, now 5-9 inches which I believe is the uppermost limit for a WWA. I think the odds are slightly better than 50/50 that we'll be upgraded to a Warning this afternoon.

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  9. All the posts about other weather people are immature and annoying. They are not funny and not what the blog is for grow up.

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    Replies
    1. The point with those posts is this, 2:17 pm: I, as well as others who post here, am thankful that Scott and friends don't resort to alliterative hype and cliches in their broadcasts. Instead, they give us the facts this time of year, and I am thankful for them. No-nonsense, no snuggle your sweetie alerts. Just the weather. So thanks, Channel 8!

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  10. Hey, give the boys at the other channel credit. They have stuck their neck out before anyone else again. Yes, sometimes they are wrong and have to re-adjust the forecasts. It has it's advantages of waiting until the last minute on forecasts if a Meteorologist wants to be credited with being most accurate.

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    Replies
    1. Agreed. But their verbal fluff gets really annoying!

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  11. The neck will be stuck out at 4:00!

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  12. Could not agree more. Sexist, cruel, and immature comments about other meteorologists have no place here.

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  13. I wouldn't have said anything, except it seems hypocritical mocking other Meteorologists, when some of the comments here are childish. The fact is that tv meteorologists all have their own personalities. We can turn the channel if it's annoying, or even go to the internet and read the forecasts. I think all meteorologists in this area have their hands full, and all deserve credit.

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  14. NWS trending lower with snow totals. Other areas under a winter storm watch have been downgraded to winter weather advisories.

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    1. Only one other office has downgraded, that being BGM who are notoriously conservative. Many others have upgraded, including ILX, FWA and IND. CLE has been talking about an upgrade as well. And as I type this, ALB upgrades to a Warning as well (although they were under a Watch to begin with). Storm seems a bit beefier than modeled, along with said models generally standing pat on QPF, with maybe a splitting-hairs caliber tick downward if you want to get truly nitpicky. So to summarize, I am quite baffled by the decisions at BUF and BGM since nothing really justifies their forecasts IMO. If nothing changes in the next 24 hours I fully expect both offices to bust low.

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  15. Always seems like we get downgraded. I guess we have to remember it is still techncially Fall and there is a lot of Winter to go.

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    1. We don't get downgraded anymore frequently than anywhere else. We're also off to a pretty good start for the season.

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    2. Good point. We did get some decent snow in Greece last night.

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  16. Channel 13 now says 7-13 total. This is up from a couple of hours ago.

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  17. So the justification given by the NWS regarding their going lower is almost literally "the models are wrong." They didn't even give any explanation or reason. Needless to say I'm disregarding their in favor of the forecasts that actually make logical sense right now. The 7-13 from Ch 13 and the 8-12 from TWC make much more sense given the evidence IMO.

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  18. 13 now says 6-12.

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  19. Ch 10 says 6-10 with some added accumulation on Sunday.

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  20. And Scott says 5-9. Also, CLE's discussion is yet another blow to BUF's argument. Relevant excerpt is as follows:

    "NEARLY ALL FORECAST TECHNIQUES( TRADITIONAL AND MORE MODERN) AND VARIOUS MODEL QPF TOTALS ALL POINT TO A .40 TO .55 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL FROM TONIGHT UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT."

    So not only is CLE saying the model QPFs are correct, they're apparently backing them up with non-model forecasting techniques. BUF's forecast now looks even junkier than before.

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