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Wednesday, December 18

Weekend Storm Thoughts

Written By:  Scott Hetsko

I know there is some chatter beginning regarding this weekend and the potential for significant ice in the area.  Obviously we are watching this very carefully as we think temperatures may still sub or near freezing for most of Saturday evening.  At worst we may see 0.5 to 1" ice accumulation in my opinion but as I ALWAYS stress, it's too far out to know anything at this point.

There is a ton of moisture as several waves ride the front.  It will be an impressive baroclinic zone from Rochester to Pennsylvania with temperatures ranging from 30 to 60 degrees at some point on Sunday.  So we will continue to monitor the weekend and have updates here and on TV.


43 comments:

  1. .5 TO 1" OF ICE WILL CAUSE POWER OUTAGES AND TREE LIBS TO FALL.

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  2. Thanks Scott. For travel purposes by car do you know what the timeframe is for the heavy precipitation no matter what form it may be?

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  3. 30 to 60 between here and Pennsylvania? That would explain the wide range of predicted temps I've seen. That's bananas.

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  4. .5 to 1 inch is not good, 1/4 inch is considered an ice storm i believe. its nice that we have this knowledge this far out just in case. I was only 8 yrs old in 1991 but don't remember knowing ahead of time that we would wake up to the incredible ice damage that we had.

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  5. That's NOT our forecast!!!! Just a potential at this point.

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    1. oh i know, don't worry. I hope it doesn't happen. How much of a chance is there for us to get flooding with rain and melting?

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  6. How much ice did we get in 91?
    Ray

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  7. 1 to 2 inches depending on where you were. it was on a Sunday too.

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  8. I think the Ice Storm of 91' we recieved 1-2 inches of ice. I believe 1/2 inch is plenty of ice to cause major problems.

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  9. Ugh... Ice storm of 91 was a major major mess. Weeks if not months of recovery from tree's down everywhere. Most people went days and some went weeks without power. Lets hope this doesn't happen.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hTXcaynJZ6U

    Lots of other video's on youtube.

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  10. Again Scott said potential it is not the forecast. Plus he said at most .50 to 1 inch as the potential. That is much less than the 91 storm.

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  11. We are getting our daily dose of heavy snow in Livonia!

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    Replies
    1. I'm going to miss this latest stretch where it seemed like it couldn't stop snowing.

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  12. The 2003 ice storm caused some big issues but was not as bad as 91. Does anyone know the ice amount we got that time?

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  13. Accuweather has moved us in the soaking range swath and out of the ice swath in their graphic. We are good!

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    1. Haha... I was thinking the opposite. Seems like Accuweather is more like InAccuweather :)

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  14. The GFS has us near 60 on Sunday. Just a BIG soaking rain that will wash away a lot of snow and cause some flooding. I think ice is out of the question whihc is good. To bad a white Christmas is in Jeopardy.

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  15. Still early to figure it out but trends have moved it north which is good for rain for us.

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  16. While the trend today has been away from ice, we are most certainly NOT out of the woods in that regard. We still have 3 days to go and that tight baroclinic zone is still uncomfortably close by. Can't really see us hitting 60 though.

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  17. Very interesting how all over the board the locals and nationals are with this weekend's weather.

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  18. Scott just said on his 4:00 weather that he is a little concerned about icing potential Saturday night into Sunday. We will have to wait and see what happens. I think the model runs Friday will give us our answers.

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  19. temperatures will be very close Saturday night that will be the key

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  20. I think this storm in the coming days is going to move more SE than of where it is currently depicted. There is a strong chance that we will be in the heavy ice or snow area. I do not buy we will get a lot of rain.

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  21. The alarmist at the other channel has no concerns about ice. He says small amount and that is Friday night while everyone else is talking Saturday night into Sunday. Scott just said do not worry he thinks not a major ice storm no 91 and 2003, That is good!

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  22. For those of us that want a White Christmas we have to hope the rain does not wash it all away and that some of it is replenished early next week.

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  23. Alarmist? Really?

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  24. Okay hype machine

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  25. This will be a cold rain so it shouldn't wipe out the snow pack entirely. We'll probably be left with a few inches of icy concrete, perhaps a bit of fresh fluff will be added on top to make it more presentable.

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  26. Looking like rain, which isn't such a bad thing I guess given the alternative at this point would be freezing rain rather than snow. Hopefully we get some lower level moisture trapped that will give a round of snow to everyone once the system passes...

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  27. Yep Scott just confirmed on his forecast no concerns with ice will be rain. Say good bye to the snow pack. It will be a green/muddy Christmas.

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  28. We currently have about a foot and a half of compressed snowpack on the ground. Three days of cold rain will probably leave us with a thin layer of icy crust which, as long as it's at least an inch thick, will count as a white Christmas. So unless we get a lot warmer than currently forecasted we still stand a good chance.

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  29. Most areas do not have that much snow so most of the snow will be gone by the end of the weekend. Unless it ends as a little snow or we get some lake effect a white Christmas seems lost. Oh well. There are worse things in life. It has been a great start to the snow season. I hope it does not end abruptly.

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  30. I'm dreaming of a muddy Christmas with all the mud we possibly can have. We have 30 inches of snow in December and will not have a white Christmas .I think we are going to end up with 31 inches total for the season ha ha.

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  31. We have a bit over a 40% chance of green Christmas based on historical averages. It also seems that a fair number of past green Christmas's we had a lot of snow in the days prior to Christmas, only to be wiped out by a warm spell & rain.

    Hopefully we don't get a full melt and we can throw down a little white before Christmas.

    For us snow lovers the season is off to a great start. We are officially at 31.3" for the season to date vs a normal of 18.8" to date.

    I reviewed the data since 1940 and in years where we started out with this much snow in November and December, we averaged 115" for the season... well above normal!

    Andy

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  32. ICE NOT A MAJOR CONCERN THIS WEEKEND, GOOD NEWS!

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    Replies
    1. Good News, but rain stinks. Whit Christmas goodbye. Mud here we come.

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  33. Best Christmas present we could get...thanks Scott and Merry Christmas to you and your family.

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  34. Ok good Scott I feel better because the latest CMC (Canandian model) has us getting a great deal of freezing rain? But, I trust your opinion much more. Just glad you posted because I would have been getting nervous.

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  35. The thaw just came at the wrong time for tjos eof us that would like a White Christmas. Oh well.

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  36. Anyone else have this problem.

    When I go to load the blog, especially if I scroll/pinch zoom on the screen when mobile and especially when the page hasn't finished loading, the previous blog post comes up.

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    Replies
    1. yes, same thing happens to me too.

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    2. Very annoying, I go to the top of the page so I can scroll out. Doesnt seem to jump to the previous post when I do that.

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  37. It looks like the tail end of this slopfest might afford a brief window of opportunity for a little recovery snowfall.

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