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Monday, December 23

WILL WE SEE A WHITE CHRISTMAS??...


Written by John DiPasquale:

What a crazy weekend it was temperature wise across the area & precipitation wise too!  Early Saturday morning the temperature spiked into the 50s for most, but then plunged during the mid to late morning back into the 30s to near 40 & managed to drop to around or just below freezing late Saturday/early Saturday night, which set many of us up for at least a minor glazing to a tenth of an inch, but in some cases, especially west of Rochester a solid quarter to half an inch accumulated on all things.  Roads did not get too bad for many, but it was a little difficult getting around no matter what you did through mid morning Sunday.  The picture above of the Birch raising the white flag was taken Sunday morning in Ogden by Rose Naramore.  It is beautiful to look at, but it's very dangerous to get around & about & if there's enough like back in 2003 & 1991 that accumulates power outages & damage becomes widespread & takes days/weeks to clean up from.  Anyways, the ice is history & it was for most by Sunday afternoon/evening as temperatures warming into the 40s caused it to melt away.

The new week has started off mild, but it is now turning colder & brisk & we will begin to see a little snow in the air this afternoon.  A little coating is expected, but that's about it for this afternoon.  Tonight a little lake snow should fly near & especially north of the Thruway where a coating to an inch or so could fall.

On Tuesday, a weak little clipper will scoot through & produce some mainly light snow, but I believe it will add up to a coating to an inch or two for all, which should ensure a white Christmas for all, or at least most.  The good news is I don't expect any major travel headaches due to weather for your Christmas travels.  Need at least 1" on the ground on Christmas morning for it to be considered a white Christmas here in the United States.

On Christmas itself it will be quiet & cold for most of the day, but later in the afternoon a little more snow may spread in from the west in advance of a push of milder air.  Thursday will be milder with snow showers likely to be around, & then maybe a few flurries or a snow shower could linger Friday, but right now the end of the week & start of the weekend look nice n' quiet with highs in the low 30s Thursday & Friday, & maybe 40+ come later Saturday!  A big time cold blast of air will then make a charge in later Sunday into the start of next week.  Stay tuned...  

    

111 comments:

  1. I just love that old classic:
    "I'm dreamin' of a brown Christmas"

    My sentiment, exactly

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  2. The stormy pattern goes on hiatus...for now. NAO going negative in time for the new year, PNA going positive around the same time, big time cold on the way as well.

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  3. Figures. Cold air but no storms. A waste of cold air. We will end up below normal in snowfall for December.

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    Replies
    1. And how do you know this cold won't include a lake effect outbreak? Besides, we're less than 4 days removed from a 9 day stretch that gave us nearly 18 inches of snow, a substantial snowstorm and much colder than average temps. So don't be all like "figures" as if dry cold has been the status quo so far, because it definitely hasn't.

      By the way, the 30 year average for December snowfall in Rochester is 21.8 inches. We're currently at 18.0 for the month with a week to go.

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    2. As was the case a few weeks ago Lake Effect is not a big deal in Rochester. A few inches here a few inches there. BORING!!! I did get a whole dusting tonight though. Woo hoo!!!!

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    3. I'd say the 2 feet of lake effect we got in a week in 2010 and the 15 inches in a weekend in 2012 were both pretty big deals. Besides, a few "boring" inches here and there is better than an even more boring nothing here and there. Would you rather go 3 weeks at a time getting nothing at all, or have those 3 weeks populated by nickel-and-dime lake effect?

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    4. I would rather have BIG blizzards like the East coast gets or the Midwest gets much more often than we do than nickel and dime fake fluff lake effect.

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    5. Most of the Midwest's blizzards hit in the middle of nowhere. And yeah, the EC gets more frequent blizzards but at the expense of going entire seasons without even a decent storm. I've even witnessed coastal residents on numerous forums complaining that they find themselves in the warm sector too often. So take your pick: live in the middle of nowhere, get frequent minor/moderate storms or get the occasional big storm with little in between, sometimes for more than a year at a time, with most storms being mixed or rain.

      In any event, no amount of complaining will change our climate. So try to enjoy what we get, or move elsewhere if it distresses you badly enough.
      And I fail to see why exactly lake effect is any less real than any other kind of snow.

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    6. Great points anon@7:44.

      Anon 7:04 --- what do you want? Years without a storm or much snow at all in trade for the occasional big one? Because that's largely what you get for coastal blizzards.

      Take your pick from the list of cities with populations over 50K
      http://www.city-data.com/top2/c464.html

      Of course if you want crazy snow, you've got to move to the mountains in Vt or out west. Take your pick http://average-snowfall.weatherdb.com/

      If you thing Rochester ever regularly had big storm after big storm your sorely incorrect, so you've got some false expectations.

      Try and enjoy what we're getting... we're doing way better than last year and currently on pace for over 100" which is above normal.

      Andy

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  4. Agreed anon @4:08. We are just 3.1" from the December average, and hitting should not be a problem especially when you consider lake effect.

    Season to date, we are running at a pace consistent with years that we averaged 110"-115."

    Andy

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  5. Does anyone understand why the counties bordering Lake Erie are under a Lake effect Warning yet the counties bordering lake Ontario are not supposed to get much. Northwest winds are usually favorable for Rochester.

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  6. I am getting ready for the so called "BORING" weather coming up. We may have a few quiet days middle to late week and then it looks like we will become very busy at the highway department plowing snow. This winter is anything but boring. January looks to start VERY wintery. Both the GFS and EURO are hinting at many chances for area wide and LES snow in the extended period with VERY COLD AIR.

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  7. Hamlin you say very busy at end of week plowing is there a storm coming?

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  8. The models don't have any big storms in the forecast YET. I don't go model run to model run hoping for big storms to show up. I look for patterns. There looks to be a very cold polar vortex setting up to our north in the extended period. I believe this will set up a snowy pattern early Jan.. It also appears that the NAO might finally go negative for early Jan.. It looks hopeful here in Hamlin that winter will continue with out many snowless periods.

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  9. Thanks HP hope you are right.

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  10. Picked up a half a dusting last night. Woo hooo!!!!!!

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  11. Been snowing all day today (Christmas Eve) in the hills of Sparta south of Conesus Lake. We've got close to 2".

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  12. two or 3 inches in Lyons.

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  13. We r down in chataqua county visiting inlaws. Now this is snow country! They got 6 inches since last night and it is. Whiteout right now. Sadly we r driving home in it soon.

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  14. KROC received 1.1 inches as of 10 this morning. With a bit more likely on the way, it looks like it will OFFICIALLY be a white Christmas in Rochester (although some other parts of the region may not receive enough snow to qualify).

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  15. Not necessarily. If it compacts to less than an inch before midnight, which is highly likely since it is just fluff, then it would not qualify as a white Christmas.

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    Replies
    1. I imagine the NWS would round up to 1 inch depth as long as it's 0.5 or greater. Snow depths are recorded in whole numbers after all. And while fluff does compact easily there isn't enough weight on top IMO to cause very much compression in the first place. So it might be a bit of a stretch (assuming no more falls the rest of the day) but I still think the airport will qualify in the end.

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  16. Almost a white out here in Hilton...

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  17. Picked up a couple inches in Gananda today.

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  18. It is too bad that we will have all this cold air and their will be no storms to speak of for at least the next 7-10 days.

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  19. Couple of inches here in Gates. Still bursts of snow from time to time.

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  20. There will be a storm some where on the east coast within 10 days mark it down.

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  21. Yeah East Coast is the key words. Not here.

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  22. Nice White Christmas.

    Way to pull through Rochester.

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  23. Merry Cringle Day everyone. Yes, even you negative nancies (looking at you snowdog) :P
    I'm liking our chances of a storm shortly after New Years Day. Remember that "coastal" storms which track along the coast can be good times in these parts.

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  24. Lake effect snow watches in effect East of the Lakes AGAIN!! Are these winds ever going to be favorable for Rochester to get significant lake effect. I am not just talking about 2 or 3 inches.

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    Replies
    1. Those are the favored areas in any given season. Even if the wind direction favors Rochester it needs to be aligned appropriately for a Georgian Bay connection or else we get lighter multi-banded snow from the short fetch. It's bound to happen at some point though, in fact the last time it happened was pretty recently if I recall correctly.

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    2. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 25, 2013 at 3:40 PM

      Rochester's average seasonal snowfall is about 100". Redfield…in NE Oswego County, with a bullseye off a west wind over Lake Ontario and elevation to boot, averages 250".

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  25. This tidbit from the NWS discussion alludes to what I brought up earlier about a storm after New Years Day:

    "IN TERMS OF PCPN...WE WILL HAVE NOTHING MORE THAN NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE PASSAGE OF A SLOW MOVING ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THAT WILL LIKELY CHANGE IN A BIG WAY AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

    LOOKING FURTHER OUT...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LATE IN THE WEEK. THE INCIPIENT SHORTWAVE FOR THIS POTENTIALLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM WAS OVER EASTERN SIBERIA THIS MORNING...AND DURING THE COURSE OF THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THE BUNDLE OF ENERGY WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE CROSS POLAR FLOW AND EJECT OUT ACROSS THE POLE TO THE PLAINS OF CENTRAL CANADA WHERE IT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER 48. TO GET AN IDEA OF THE POTENTIAL ENERGY INVOLVED WITH THIS FEATURE... THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT THE 1.5 PV FIELD WILL DIP AS LOW AS 925MB. CERTAINLY ONE TO WATCH FOR LATE NEXT WEEK."

    And now it's time for more family holiday fun yay :D

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  26. The weather has already turned wintery her in Hamlin just in time for a white Christmas. We got a range of 3 inches lake side to 5-6 inches south side of town. We could see a little more tomorrow before a short break this weekend. Next week and beyond still look to me to be VERY wintery. I am interested to see how models track a storm up the coast merging it with a northern branch clipper. If not a synoptic snow producer it should at least be the beginning of a significant LES event south of Lake Ontario. I still think we are going to be VERY busy pushing LOTS of snow around in Hamlin in the upcoming couple of weeks.

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  27. It looks as if that storm is going along the coast and to far east at this point, but who knows.

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  28. Yes who knows, but 24 hours ago GFS had it out to sea not merging with northern storm. Latest model runs trend LP much further west merging the storms. It is just something we can watch the next few days that's all.

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  29. The theme so far this entire season has been for storms on the models to trend west over time, and there hasn't been a single notable exception. I like where we sit right now.

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  30. Another channel is already talking about a Major storm next week and then an arctic breakout.

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    Replies
    1. The arctic outbreak is far more certain than the storm threat. We'll be getting much colder during early January, possibly colder than it's been all season so far.

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  31. I just hope synoptic snow comes with the cold air and not just Lake effect.

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  32. I don't see any major storm next week for WNY. I do think we could get a shot at some snow from the system on the coast early next week. Then the question is how far south does the core of the arctic air push. We will definitely be cold, but there is the potential for RECORD cold next week. We will see, either way the lake snows will be flying.

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  33. I would not see no major storm Hamlin. The trend is taking that storm even further West according to the GFS. I think that clipper will pull that storm on the coast even further West and could give us a good snowstorm. It will be fun to watch anyway.

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  34. There looks like a lot of things that have potential for the next 10 days. Can anyone sort out the latest model information as far as storm potentials?

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  35. I think our best hope through the 10 day period is going to be a juiced-up clipper at some point. Such a scenario might play out in about a week's time.

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  36. Yeah, not much happening over the next 7-10 days. Just a little lake effect. Too bad. It will be really cold next week, but no storms. Any snow we have on the ground right now, which is not much, will melt Saturday and Sunday when the temps get into the 40's.

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  37. No one said it's only going to be a little lake effect. There will be frequent clippers to go along with it, and one or a few could be quite prodigious by clipper standards.

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    1. Clippers produce very little in the way of snowfall. They are always moisture starved. Lake effect will be in the standard lake belt areas and not Rochester.

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    2. Clippers frequently pick up moisture from the Great Lakes, and sometimes track far enough south to interact with southern moisture as well. The upcoming pattern looks cold enough for both of those things to occur. Far too early to make a call on placement of any meandering lake effect bands, therefore far too early to say whether or not Rochester will get hit.

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  38. What happen to that possible big east coast storm next week mentioned by another channel?

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    Replies
    1. That storm will be too far East to affect Rochester and Western, NY. Same old story. South and East.

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    2. Same old story? What on earth are you talking about? The most recent significant eastern US snowstorm was a nearly direct hit. Second such storm this season, first was the Thanksgiving storm. Other storms have gone either west or east with about a 50/50 distribution. You post nonsense son...

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    3. How can you say it was a direct hit. We only picked up 6 inches in Rochester. Wimpy. Most storms go West of us and South and East. That is normally the case. The Sunday-Monday storm will be on the East coast and will miss us. It will be a wet storm as well as there will no cold air in place.

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    4. The exact final amount doesn't matter...the fact is that we were solidly within the action rather than on the fringe, which makes it a NEARLY direct hit. Keep in mind, that storm hit a very broad area with significant snow, so almost the entire Northeast bore a direct hit. The highest totals were in ENY and New England, and they were generally 8-16 inches. Our region averaged 6-10, so obviously we weren't in the jackpot but we still fared pretty well, not a huge difference between the two regions. The airport finished with about 7 inches (estimated due to measuring errors). Point being this: a region doesn't need to get the absolute highest amounts to be able to say it got a direct hit. I certainly wouldn't call it a miss just because we weren't the big winners.

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  39. How can you state it will be too far east when it is 7-10 days away? Many have tracked NW?

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    Replies
    1. Because clearly the models will stop sucking eggs for just this one storm.

      You're absolutely right, every notable storm this winter so far has tracked hundreds of miles NW of where the models showed them in the 7-10 day range. No reason to expect any different this time.

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  40. The storm we are talking about is Sunday- Monday and the models are consistent in tracking this storm to far east and it will be a warm storm anyway. The East Coast will have rain with this one.

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  41. You know what I'd find interesting? One sunny day. Not the kind where we happen to be outside lake effect, but where there's a clear, crystal blue sky. And seasonable temps. Little or no wind too. Anyone see a day like that sometime before Spring arrives?
    I find the constant gloom, possible LES, clipper systems, and East Coast storms pretty pedestrian.

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    Replies
    1. Yeah, good luck finding that combination in our winter climate...

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  42. Am I mistaken? The most recent model runs a week from now gives us a big snow storm?

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    Replies
    1. Tha will change a thousand times.

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  43. We will get a new post from News 8 shortly?

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  44. Talk about model mayhem...the current GFS depiction for late next week is a vigorous northern stream system which phases with developing coastal energy to produce a large storm, Rochester gets substantial snow. The GEM depiction is a robust clipper and a moderate snow event. The UKMET depicts a nothing-special borefest, and the Euro is dry but bitterly cold. I don't buy the Euro solution at all, just don't see any mechanism that could bring down such a strong suppressing high. The AO looks barely negative, the NAO looks neutral or slightly positive and the EPO looks similar to a few weeks ago. I think a weaker and more southerly version of the GFS is reasonable since there will probably be SOME degree of suppression. GEM seems equally reasonable to me.

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  45. The NWS is going with the non-storm scenario according to their statement as of today. I am not holding my breath for a decent snow event here just the nickel and dime Lake effect that we are used to here in Rochester.

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    1. The most recent discussion doesn't say anything about any preferred scenario. This is the most relevant tidbit I could find:

      "BEYOND THIS POINT(WED-FRI)...SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF. THE GFS...KEEPS A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN GOING AND SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE ECMWF HOWEVER...KEEPS THE REGION UNDER THIS COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS AND DRY FOR THE MOST PART WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S BUILDING INTO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST."

      All they did was mention some model discrepancies, with zero preference towards either the GFS or the Euro.

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    2. Sorry. I was reading the NWS out of Binghamton:

      IN THE WED NGT-THU TIME FRAME...THERE HAD BEEN QUITE A MODEL SPREAD
      IN PREV RUNS (SOME INDICATING MORE PHASING BETWEEN NRN AND SRN
      STREAM ENERGY WITH A POTENTIALLY SIG SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL/MIXED PCPN
      EVENT FOR NY/PA...WHILE OTHERS WERE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND NRN
      STREAM DOMINANT). IT APPEARS THERE IS A GENERAL TREND WITH THE 12Z
      FRI RUN TO FAVOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLN...SHYING AWAY FROM ANY
      MAJOR STORMS. WE`LL ALSO SEE IF THIS CONTS WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL
      RUNS.

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    3. There's no commitment to any one scenario in that discussion either, just a wait-and-see approach to a general model trend. Which, I might add, the 18z GFS went against. It would be idiotic to commit to any idea right now given the model chaos. Besides, I wouldn't trust anything that NWS Binghamton puts out right now given how poorly they forecasted the mid-month storm.

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  46. I am getting excited for the upcoming wintery pattern. I still think it is going to be VERY snowy in WNY next week and beyond. The 12Z EURO has a much different solution today than it has had during previous runs. Earlier runs where much more in line with the current GFS. I am getting ready for a VERY wintery couple of weeks here in Hamlin. Keep the plows ready winter is here to stay this season. I still think Sunday night we could get a quick shot of accumulating snow to start off a snowy period.

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  47. HP think you are wrong with snow opportunities. GFS and EURO both showing real cold and that is squashing storm opportunities. Cold and dry the next few weeks.

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  48. Even if we don't get a significant storm in the next 2 weeks there's no chance it stays completely dry given the number of clippers being depicted, several of them lake enhanced. I also think the magnitude of cold being shown on the models for early January will diminish over time, since modeled cold is almost always overdone.

    GFS blinked on next week's storm, but since it's a break in its previous continuity, and the various ensemble members are still all over the place, I'm going to call it a hiccup for now.

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  49. I agree with ANON 11:31. No big storms in site. There will be a few moisture starved clippers that pass by and give us light amounts and then a little lake effect after that which will nickel and dime us to death depending on the wind direction. The BIG story will be the cold.

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  50. This might be due to typical model bias, but I really don't think the cold will be that big of a deal. No doubt it'll be pretty darned cold, but I'm not buying the notion of it being any worse than what we've seen already. I think we'll see one night drop a few degrees below zero and that will be the extent of it.

    Recent model runs are beginning to correct back towards the storm idea for late next week after a brief hiccup last night. The Euro is on board too after several consecutive runs showing cold high pressure instead. In fact, every model I've looked at now has the storm in varying locations. Most of them are east, but the trend for every notable storm this season in the medium/long range has been west (including this weekend's rainer which now looks to have an impact here). Not to mention the teleconnection forecasts don't particularly support a completely offshore solution. So it's reasonable IMHO to expect a westward shift over time. I still like where we sit. Unfortunately though, this may be our last shot at a storm for some time, at least a week.

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    Replies
    1. And by that I mean "at least a week after the storm."

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  51. Those of you who like to change your opinions with every flip flopping model run should now take a look at the 12Z EURO. It has backed way off its idea of high pressure dominating the forecast. Frequent clippers and troughs with a shot a decent storm by weeks end. I still like the idea of a SNOWY forecast in WNY next week. We will see. The models are all over the place with each run, so don't flip flop with them.

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  52. The EURO now has a Major Storm for Eastern, NY next Friday like Hamlin said. It would be a miss for us if it were to stay that track or move further East. Hopefully the models with start trending West. The storm tomorrow and Monday will be a wet one for most. No cold air. One thing we know for sure is that it will be cold, but not brutally cold.

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    Replies
    1. We would miss on the biggest amounts but it wouldn't be a total whiff. Decent QPF with high ratios. Definitely with you on the west trend, but there's reason to feel good about that happening as it's been the theme all season.

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  53. The NWS talks of nothing of a BIG storm at the end of next week. They are saying it will be a cold week but very little in the way of snow. Like we have been saying a few moisture starved clippers and a little lake effect is all. It does not look like a BIG deal for Western, NY at this point next week.

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    Replies
    1. I think you mean like YOU have been saying. You and that one Anonymous person keep beating the no snow drum only to have it backfire every single time. Seeing a pattern yet? How's that December prediction of yours going by the way?

      I saw brief references to the storm potential in the discussion, which is about as good as it gets with such a huge model spread remaining. Don't have a single clue as to where they're getting "clipper-type system" from as no such system shows up in any model. I think they're still stuck on the previous day's runs like they seemingly were all throughout the last storm...

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  54. Haven't heard anyone talk about lake effect recently, regarding the cold outbreak. It seems as though there's mostly a NW flow coming, with several opportunities for LE snow this week, before the ever illusive potential big storm at the end of the week.

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  55. All but one of the top 5 CIPS analogs for late next week were at least decent snow producers here. One of those 4 was a huge storm, the rest were smaller but still rather substantial.

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  56. The GFS and Euro take it way off the coast at this time not to affect us at all.

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    Replies
    1. The Euro absolutely affects us. Tracks the storm from southern IL to just south of Cape Cod. In any event it isn't wise to be playing model games right now since they're still all over the place and lack any semblance of consistency.

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  57. More model flip-flopping...00z GFS is a very frisky clipper which intensifies as it tracks east, ends up being a substantial storm for almost all of NYS. Yet another possible solution, further illustrating the danger of living and dying by the models.

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  58. Stayed up for the Euro because why not. Here are the model depictions as of now:

    GFS - strong northern stream low, substantial snowstorm
    Euro - strong northern stream low with eventual southern stream phase, major snowstorm
    GGEM - strong northern stream low with earlier southern stream phase, moderate snowstorm
    UKMET - strong southern stream low, can't really tell what it does within the 24 hour intervals but probably a minor/moderate event

    So clearly the trend is towards the storm idea, the issue now becomes what it does for our region. Do we get a big storm, a minor snowfall or something in between? Only time will tell...

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  59. I know they are probably on vacation but it would be nice to hear from news 8 and maybe get a new blog for the week.

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  60. Snowdog, now if you read the NWS you will read something much different than last night. The point is there is not anyone who knows what late weeks weather will bring. I have noticed more often than not in the past, that when one of these polar vortex spins around nearby to our north, it tends to be very snowy in Hamlin and WNY due to shifting LES bands. A storm at the end would just be the icing on the cake to HOPEFULY a snowy week.

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  61. Man the Euro has one cranked-up primary in the Ohio Valley. That model tends to overamp storms though. The important thing is that we now have a general agreement (save for the UKMET which still insists on a far more southerly track) and a small bit of consistency.

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  62. Replies
    1. Excellent insight there scooter...

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  63. If the Euro were to verify that could mean more of a mixed event initially because of its strength, correct?

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  64. It is the only model to do so at the current time but if EURO verified we would get about a foot of snow.

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  65. The other models show a lot less.

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  66. It is very early, however the EURO is now in line with a couple previous runs of the GFS. The 18Z NAM's last few panels also have a stronger north tracking LP. The Canadian model is also favorable for significant snow. The GFS is the only model not currently on board. The EURO track along with the cold air COULD mean significant lake enhancement also. Either way very active pattern with snow and cold looks to be a good bet.

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  67. If I am not mistaken the latest GFS puts us in the 8-10 inch range too?

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  68. Is there any chance to get an update on what news 8 thinks?

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  69. You have to read channel 10 input for updates this winter. News 8 not contributing much to blog during weekend.

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  70. I'm pretty sure the GFS has consistently shown 6-12 inches.

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  71. The EURO is much stronger the GFS. Which is the more accurate model??? The weekend team has never contributed to the BLOG. We have to wait for John.

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    1. The Euro is generally the better model but hasn't been particularly standout this season.

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  72. Model update:

    GFS - still mostly northern stream, significant storm
    Euro - southern stream-ish, rides up the Ohio Valley while bombing out, big storm for the entire Northeast, severe blizzard for New England
    GEM - similar to GFS, significant storm
    NAM - extrapolated would probably be a major storm
    UKMET - southern stream system, heads ENE off of SC

    As much as I would love to ride the Euro hype train I can't given the persisting model spread. I must say though, the consistency of the Euro combined with its reliable reputation in the medium range make it very tempting. Can't ignore the consistency of either the GFS or GEM either, though the GFS seems to want to involve the southern stream a bit more in recent runs. The NAM is just being the NAM and should be ignored at this point. As for the UKMET...well I don't quite know what the heck it's doing but it's a garbage model anyway so I don't trust it.

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  73. Another channel keeps talking about the Euro and how it would give us a BIG snowstorm. The GFS not so much. I hope the Euro wins out. I know this is way out but the GFS shows a monster next week. I know that will change.

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    Replies
    1. The Euro has a similar monster. Could you imagine TWO big storms in a row? I know I can't and it probably won't happen, but one can dream I suppose. I'd be satisfied with just one TBH, a second would be gravy.

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  74. Still awake what am I doing with my life lol. Oh wait that's right, weenie-ing out over the storm potential. Hearing that the insane Euro operational run has decent ensemble support, which means it isn't totally out to lunch.

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  75. Do you think we will ever get an update from News 8 updated post? Kind of sick of the white Christmas heading. Btw the EURO is an outlier and has not been good so far this year.

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  76. So it sounds like at this point we can expect some snow Thursday? Whether or not its big is TBD. Any snow is better than no snow. It will help those who rely on it for income. Looking forward to hearing from the news 8 team on here hopefully this AM.

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  77. They do not comment on storms until they know for sure we will get some impact. I totallly understand that. They now have lake effect snow watches out for Wayne county East.

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  78. Looks like the latest GFS went towards the EURO and this could be a major storm?

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  79. I think just the opposite. The GFS takes it South and out to sea now. That would suck.

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  80. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ECMWF SOLUTION IS THE
    OUTLIER AND HAS LITTLE SUPPORT FROM OTHER DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS.
    IN ANY EVENT...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY THROUGH THE LATE WEEK
    TO ACCOUNT FOR BOTH SCENARIOS. BEYOND THIS...MODELS STILL SHOW A VERY
    COLD CANADIAN HIGH OF 1030-1040 MBS BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FOR THE

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  81. If the GFS verifies we will not see much snow at all. It would be a complete miss.

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  82. The Euro is now way south along with every other model. This one will be a complete miss folks, sorry to say. Ugh, at least we had 12 hours of excitement before the inevitable screw job -_-

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