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Sunday, January 19

A HARSH REMINDER OF 2 WEEKS AGO


Written By:  Scott Hetsko

An Arctic air-mass will drop into our region beginning Monday morning.  Temperatures by late afternoon will already have dipped to the low teens and by early Tuesday it will be around zero in many towns South of Lake Ontario.  A short fetch and dry air will limit the amount of instability off the Lake however we always see at least a few inches of fluff in areas North of I-90.  This will set up beginning Monday night through Wednesday.  Some localized amounts will be over 6" for sure.

We stay in the deep freeze all week and below normal air will dominate the rest of January in the Northeastern part of the United States.  On Saturday, a quick moving low may produce a few inches of snow over the weekend.  Stay warm!!!









50 comments:

  1. Thanks Scott NBD basic Rochester winter weather. Must be no winds because you did not mention any brutal wind chill concerns.

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  2. Other than the degree of cold, I do agree that this is a fairly basic Rochester winter pattern. Still looks to me as though there will be just enough wind to produce low end advisory level wind chills. Maybe someone with a better eye can correct me on this, but it also looks like the models are trying to bring the subtropical jet back into the picture by the end of January.

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  3. Winter started out like a lion and has certainly turned into a lamb in regards to snowfall. I am sorry to say it may go that way the rest of the winter.

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  4. It may end up that way? It may end up being the snowiest winter ever when it is over? WHO KNOWS?? WE ARE ONLY HALF WAY THROUGH!!! If it where March 19, not January 19 you MAY have a valid statement. It is only January 19, lets give it a chance I would say.

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    Replies
    1. I think Anonymous at 7:55 is wishcasting.

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  5. The flower city will get a blizzard by March 9th.

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  6. We are just a few inches above normal for the season now. At one time we were about 22 inches above normal. The last 2.5 weeks we have had very little. We will see some this week but with no storms in the mix it will just be lake effect. It will not be a lot of lake effect due to the dry air. We still have a lot of winter left and the storms will hopefully come back into the picture.

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  7. The latest GFS has fallen in line with the rest of the model guidance regarding a continuation of cold weather into early February. There also still appears to be some semblance of subtropical jet influence returning by the end of the month as well. Personally I am holding firm on the prospect of storminess returning to the East by later next week.

    Winter in Rochester lasts until St. Paddy's Day, which is 2 months from now. Anyone speculating on how the rest of the season will play out is speaking from foolishness, plain and simple.

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  8. The front is falling apart as it moves south. It looked pretty impressive when it was over the Lake but now it is weak. We may get an inch out of it.

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  9. Yeah I looked outside and it has stopped snowing. Think the 1-3 I heard on 13 is not going to happen. Here comes the cold though. RgE Ioves it i bet.

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  10. Guess I spoke too soon. Its coming down now. Grass is more than covered so anything more more is a bonus today and this week. If you people think of it like that you will not be so let down. If your hoping or snowmaggedon it may not happen.

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  11. Been snowing steadily in Lyons for several hours. About 2 inches of new snow.

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  12. EURO dropped the severe cold for next Sunday/Monday. Still no storms the next 7-10 days.

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  13. Good lets hope it doesn't stay too cold. As for the storms lets wait and see before getting to far down that road.

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  14. Snowing harder now than it was all morning. Nice and snowy out.

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  15. It looks like NYC will get a snowstorm tomorrow. A miss for us. Shocker...

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    Replies
    1. And just how many times can we say a storm was a complete miss south and/or east for us this season? Personally I can think of only 3 occasions, including the upcoming one, and all of them have been/will be moderate at best. 3 others have been hits, including one that produced 10-20+ inches for much of metro Rochester. Keep things in perspective instead of going straight to the Complain Train.

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  16. Ominous wording in the latest NWS discussion for the upcoming weekend:

    "A LOOK AT THE 1.5 PVU SURFACES OF BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS IS UNNERVING AS HEIGHTS DROP TO ANYWHERE FROM 650MB TO 725MB IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH A 980ISH MB SURFACE LOW REACHING MAXIMUM INTENSITY OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY SATURDAY. WHILE THERE ARE TIMING/POSITION DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS REGARDING THE FINER DETAILS...THIS SCENARIO BEARS CLOSE WATCHING AS IT COULD BRING A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM/WIND EVENT TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. NEEDLESS TO SAY THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...AT LEAST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...ALONG WITH POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WINTER WILL BE HERE TO STAY FOR QUITE SOME TIME."

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  17. Definitely something to watch... And this cold is very impressive given the fact that the NAO has really been neutral or positive this entire winter. Goes to show that the PNA can really have a big influence on our weather here.

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  18. Funny thing is that up until recently even the PNA hasn't been all that favorable. It had been neutral/negative much of the time. The AO has been primarily negative lately, but through much of our cold and snowy December it was primarily positive. No help from the MJO either, it's been basically inert for the past 3 months and hasn't factored in at all. The driver all along has been the -EPO, without it we would be having a mild and very mundane winter so far. Instead...well, enough said.

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  19. The NWS states that the GFS and EURO for this weekend are UNNERVING. with a potential snowstorm and wind event. WHat are the talking about????

    I picked up about 5 inches in Gananda today. The front definitely over performed here. The airport only picked up 1.4 inches.

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    Replies
    1. From the discussion:

      "...WITH A 980ISH MB SURFACE LOW REACHING MAXIMUM INTENSITY OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY SATURDAY."

      All of the models depict an idea similar to this.

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  20. Just wondering what they mean by unnerving.

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    1. It has mostly to do with the wind that would occur with a low of that strength in that position, coupled with falling snow and a pre-existing snowpack and cold temperatures. It'll be moisture starved so any snowfall that occurs would be far from excessive, but even a moderate snowfall with strong enough winds can cause substantial problems, especially if it happens with a powdery snowpack already in place.

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  21. None of the other weather offices mention it at all. They just say light snow and flurries possible.

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  22. Wow that low is juicy on the latest EURO and GFS for weekend. If that verifies and moves a tad south it could be some good snow with STRONG winds. But who knows worth waiting to see what the models say tonight and tomorrow.

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  23. Scott was pretty confident that Saturday we will get minimal snow at best he said 1-3 inches. He also did not show harsh cold for Sunday/Monday with lows above 10 degrees. Do not buy the snow/sever cold the next 2 weeks winter was going great for the first 8 days of January now it has backed way off with above normal temperatures and little snow the last 13 days.

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    Replies
    1. Scott has had a tendency to jump the gun a bit at times this season. I'm sorry but I don't see any reason to be confident about snowfall amounts from a storm that's still 4 days away, regardless of model agreement. I'd like to see you give an explanation for why you aren't buying the snow and cold for the next 2 weeks, because everything I'm seeing says otherwise.

      We now have this from the NWS discussion:

      "THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES THEN GO THEIR SEPARATE WAYS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF CAMP IS SUGGESTING THAT A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIG ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WITH A DEEP SFC LOW SPINNING UP OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS STRENGTHENING STORM IS THEN FORECAST TO PLOW JUST TO OUR WEST...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A HIGH WIND EVENT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. THE GFS CAMP FAVORS A LATER PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS ALSO A LITTLE WEAKER THAN DEPICTED IN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES. THE RESULT WOULD BE MORE BENIGN STORM SYSTEM THAT WOULD PASS TO OUR SOUTH. WHILE THIS WOULD NOT SUPPORT A HIGH WIND EVENT...IT WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

      WILL NOT SPECULATE ON THE MODEL OF CHOICE FROM THIS LONG RANGE VANTAGE POINT...OTHER THAN TO SAY THAT THE HAND DRAWN SOLUTIONS FROM HPC FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION. STAY TUNED."

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  24. Spectators to a snowstorm in Philadelphia, Boston and NYC. Another miss.

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    Replies
    1. Eh, let them have their fun. We've gotten plenty of storms here already while much of the Mid Atlantic has been shafted. DC is actually below normal on snowfall right now. Banner year for southern New England though, they've had a big ol' bullseye on their backs all season long.

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  25. Weird not on radar but snowing moderately on east side?

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    Replies
    1. KBUF radar is garbage at detecting lake effect in Rochester when it's this cold.

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  26. Scott/John/Stacey,

    not that you need to be on board or off board with that the NWS has been discussing for later this wekeend, but if you have any initial thoughts on whether there is something to watch for that timeframe can you let us in on it? At the very least it sounds like it will stay cold with Saturday being the only day where it warms into the 20's?

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  27. I am not sure what the NWS is talking about for this weekend. I do not see anything. Light snow at best with some wind unless I am missing something.

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    Replies
    1. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014012106&time=INSTANT&var=PRMSL&hour=102

      Yep, nothing there at all, just a deepening 981 mb low in an ideal spot for strong winds in powder-blanketed WNY.

      gimme a break man -_-

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    2. Still does not show alot of snow. Who cares about wind.

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    3. Are you for real right now? Can you seriously not see the complications a strong wind event across a powdery, not-so-miniscule snowpack would introduce? Look past the total amount of snowfall for like 2 seconds. Impactful winter weather events don't always involve a lot of snow. North Dakota got a blizzard warning last week for a paltry 1 inch of snow, the wind is what did it.

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  28. Yes 12z GFS still gives us what Scott has said 1-3 at most Sunday. This again like the many before will be NBD for us.

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    1. Wind, wind, wind, that will be the theme here. Use your brain: what does strong wind do when it passes over a powdery snowpack?

      All it will take is light snow to produce hazardous driving conditions at times in a setup like that. It'll look neat too.

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    2. I would not call what we have a snowpak. 1-3 inches we have on the ground will not cause many problems.

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    3. We're going to get more over the next several days. Probably another 4-8 inches on top of what we already have, including the system itself. NWS point-n-click for KROC has 3-6 though Wednesday night. It will be enough to create problems for travelers once the wind kicks up. Trust me, I was driving around Erie County on Sunday when the snow was only an inch deep, and the amount of wind was enough to make it tricky. Looked almost blizzard-ish at brief intervals too. This was with ONE INCH on the ground, and a system not quite as feisty as this one looks to be.

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    4. So are you saying we can expect to get between down and Wednesday, 6 to 8 inches of snow. Have not seen any type of Advisory go up. If the winds are slated to pick up -- will take create blizzard and white out conditions?

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  29. Give me a gusty light/moderate snowfall over a windless heavy one any day of any week. Heavy snowfalls with no wind are kinda lame IMHO. I'll take them of course, but it's just not the same as looking outside to see deep drifts mounting in the backyard. Only exceptions are when the snow falls super heavy like what we had in early December with the rogue Lake Erie band, or when it piles up deep enough to dig tunnels.

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  30. You will getting nothing this weekend or the next 2 weeks stop hoping. I go with Hetsko 1-3 and not cold and NBD.

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    Replies
    1. Nothing the next two weeks? What technology and models are you using that enable you to speak so definitively about 2 weeks into the future? We'd be interested in knowing.

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    2. ANONYMOUS used MAXIMUM OVERTROLL!

      It's super ineffective!

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  31. Euro weeklies are indicating a snowy pattern for the Lower Great Lakes region (that would be us) and Ohio Valley for the week of February 3rd.

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  32. Ha ha I get questioned about 2 weeks out because I say quiet yet anon 1:00 cites Euro weeklies 2 weeks out for snowy pattern ha ha ha.

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    Replies
    1. The Euro weeklies count as actual evidence. Where's your evidence? I bet you don't have any, because you are merely a troll. I do not regret being baited.

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