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Wednesday, January 8

COLDEST START TO JANUARY IN DECADES


Written By:  Scott Hetsko

Thanks in part to the way too much talked about Polar Vortex, we've been nearly 10 degrees below normal to start January.  The upper level pattern will become more zonal (flat) instead of longitudinal the next several days.  There are some long range indications that a similar type of Arctic intrusion may hit the Northeast again sometime around January 20th and last a little longer than this recent shot.

27 comments:

  1. In terms of a little longer... Is there an indication of how MUCH longer? 2 days was enough!

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  2. Bring it on. Winter is suppose to be miserably cold and snowy. A small break in the action wont kill me, however I would like to see the snow pile up for a change. These small frequent thaws keep the snow piles down. Lets hope the EURO is on to something in the 7 day. A snowstorm before the possible arctic blast would keep this winter rolling nicely. Exciting non the less.

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  3. "There are some long range indications that a similar type of Arctic intrusion may hit the Northeast again..."

    no...

    "...sometime around January 20th..."

    NOOO...

    "...and last a little longer than this recent shot."

    NO NO NO NONONONO NOOOOOOO

    Don't get me wrong, I love cold and snow. But the kind of cold we just dealt with is a bit too much for me. I hope "similar" means just the pattern and not the degree of cold.

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    Replies
    1. Sweet lord I just read Scott's latest tweet. He said it looks longer AND possibly colder than the recent shot.

      -_-

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    2. I'm with you.. winter is my favorite season but I will pass on the garbage we just had.

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  4. I don't mind the cold and love the snow, but I can do without the wind no matter the season, especially winter.

    I have to laugh at the Accuweather 10-20 forecast, it obviously hasn't picked up on the next Arctic blast. I don't even know why I go to their site. :)

    Andy

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    Replies
    1. 10-20 day forecast
      Andy

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    2. The only reason I go to their site is to get expert insight from people not named Henry Margusity. Although I must say, Margusity does have this weird sort of accuracy where he predicts every storm to track 200 miles south and east of where it eventually ends up tracking. I think it's because he clings to the progressive biased GFS like a fat kid clings to chocolate. Their other experts are generally good at their jobs, although Paul Pastelok's outlook for this winter has been a gigantic bust so far...he said winter wouldn't arrive in the East until later in January. I just don't bother with Accuweather's local forecasts, they're computer generated and tend to be wildly inaccurate even within 36 hours.

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  5. Is Scott talking about the similar cold the country experienced this past weekend? Does he think it will be same, worse or not as harsh. The other mets are too talking about another arctic invasion after next week. Are there any snowstorms on the horizon?

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  6. I hope not. Average cold and snow is fine with me. This brutal arctic cold can stay in the arctic.

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  7. The potential storm for early next week is starting to play out like the last Sundays storm. The EURO is on board with a possible phasing of southern and northern branch storms, leading to a significant snow storm some where between Ohio valley and northeast. GFS no phasing yet. I will say I am leaning toward the EURO, could be something to watch again. EURO was on board long before other models the last few events. The EURO also hints at arctic cold equally as cold as last cold spell. I would keep the hats and gloves handy for a while winter maybe just toying with us Saturday.

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  8. Is it going to go West again because Monday is supposed to be in the 40's. Do you mean the week after next.

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    Replies
    1. Next week Tuesday-Wednesday time frame.

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  9. Buffalo is leading the pack in snowfall this year at 61". Rochester is in last place at 47". It seems like we have had more snow than that. Middlebury in Genesee county has had 137" so far. Wow.

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    Replies
    1. lol Rochester is definitely not in last place. That would be Albany as per usual:

      http://goldensnowball.com/

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    2. Chris now in PenfieldJanuary 10, 2014 at 7:15 AM

      Redfield in Oswego County is up to 220"

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    3. If only the airport was closer to 104, our numbers would by much higher!

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  10. 00z EURO still showing snow storm for northeast Tuesday-Wednesday. Canadian model is also starting to pick up on the idea. Still early but it does deserve some attention. Euro has backed off its cold a little for the end of its run.

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  11. Yep. The Euro shows a 987 mb low in Eastern NY on Wednesday. That would be a great position for us to get a good snowstorm. It will get interesting. The past few storms though the EURO has been way too strong with the low and the GFS has done better. We will see.

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  12. The Canadian model takes it much further East and a miss for us. Here we go again. Which model will win.

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  13. Have not heard one local met talking about any potential snow storm next week.

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  14. Regardless of the storm, the NAO has yet to truly go negative this winter, but is forecast to do so next week. In addition, the AO is forecast to go negative as well, increasing confidence that we will at least have an extended period of cold and snow...

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  15. Looking at long range models I do not see where Scott is seeing a similar type of arctic intrusion we just had?

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  16. Any updates on what latest GFS shows for midweek?

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  17. The most recent GFS tracked much further west than it had in the past run through NYC. Stay tuned on this one including the latest EURO run which I believe is at 1:00pm?

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