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Wednesday, January 15

JANUARY IS TAKING A VACATION


Written By:  Scott Hetsko

Seems like a long time ago when Lovely had no scandals, cold and snow were common in Rochester.  The first 9 days of the month were by and large brutally cold and snowy.  More recently, Rochester has been mild with temperatures about 11 degrees above normal since last Friday.  Old Man Winter has plans for us beginning the second half of the weekend and into the next week.

Colder air will be sliding South from Central Canada as a strong Pacific ridge bulges North toward Alaska.  This will dump all the Arctic air into the U.S. again the final 7-10 days of the month.  I don't expect this cold snap to be quite as fierce as the last one but temperatures between 10-20 below average will be common as well as some snow.

Plenty of Winter left...hang in there!

10 comments:

  1. Michele in PenfieldJanuary 15, 2014 at 9:42 PM

    Thanks to Scott and the News 8 team for keeping us updated on the blog this winter!

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  2. Thanks for the updates!

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  3. No storms in the models at all next week, It will get cold but just a little snow will fall. January will end below normal in snowfall.

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    1. Snowdog December 8, 2013 at 7:14 AM

      "...I also do not see any storms in the models at all. I know some of you said next weekend, but I do not see it. I think it will be very quiet this month with very little snow. I think November(13") will end up with more snow than December..."

      Sorry to make an example of you like this Snowdog but I'm real sick and tired of the complaining and negativity, which had thankfully been missing for awhile but has resurfaced recently. For the record, you've been much less negative since that post and it's been refreshing to see. This quote says basically the same thing you're saying Anon. Less than a week later a significant snowstorm hit Rochester, and the month finished slightly above normal snowfall-wise. I can't claim to know what the outcome for snow this month will be and neither can anyone else. We aren't guaranteed to receive little snowfall just because the models aren't showing storms...in fact some of our snowier periods have occurred without a single one (December 2010's record snowfall was almost entirely lake effect). Besides, look here:

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014011600&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=384

      Total snowfall from now through the end of the month per the GFS. Over a foot, which would bring us close to normal for the month. And see here:

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2014011600&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=240

      There it is, a storm on a model. Right there in front of your face, just off the coast with another nearby. Yes it's at the end of the run, and yes it's probably too far east on this run, trust me it will change. And you know, Scott said the last few weeks of January would be generally snowy, and CPC puts us in their below normal temps/above normal precip probabilities in their high confidence outlook, but I guess the opinion of Negative Nancy rules the roost in your mind...

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  4. I think it will get more active next week. I hope so. This lull is a killer. LOL.

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  5. Interesting the temperature differences between stations. 13 has low of 9 next Wednesday while 10 has us at 0? So how cold will it get by the end of next week. Still do not see any significant storms within the next 7-10 days not complaining just pointing that out.

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  6. Still I am sorry but see no chances of a decent snow storm for the next 10 days at least. Cold with no snow is a waste. I HATE THE COLD!

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  7. The EURO is showing something next Wednesday but way to far East for us, but that is what will bring down the cold air. Besides that there is nothing showing. When I said active I meant Lake Effect, but that all depends on the winds who gets that.

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  8. I realize there are some snow lovers out there but each day with dry roads is a plus in my book!! Not a fan of winter driving!

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    1. I agree with you on this. Especially last week if you had to drive home in the blizzard and it took over 5 hours for a normal 40-minute drive. But again there are those who are praying for blizzard-type weather to come this way again.

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