Get your daily dose of weather news

with Scott Hetsko, Chief Meteorologist

RSS FEED SUBSCRIBE BY EMAIL

Our weather blog brings you expert perspective on the latest weather news. Our weather experts share the inside scoop with blog entries from the studio and from the field. Check out the latest weather news and storm coverage in our most recent blog entries.

Thursday, January 16

MID WINTER CONDITIONS RETURNING SOON

Written by John DiPasquale:

The break from the mid winter chill & snow will be returning compliments of the series of clippers moving through over the next several days to come.  Each clipper will bring a little shot of snow that will be followed by colder & colder air as we progress through the next 5 to 7 days, quite possibly leading to the feel of the Arctic once again come the middle of next week with some wind, but probably not as much as the last bout we had last week.  Either way, it's looking quite brutal & could very well last longer than the last outbreak. 

The snow chances will be frequent with a little general snow with each clipper and some lake snow at times, especially next week that could pile up more significantly in spots, possibly including the Greater Rochester area, with the Arctic air in place.  Stay tuned for updates through the weekend for the latest on the cold & snow coming...

Have a great day bloggers! 

65 comments:

  1. Other models are beginning to join in on the Euro polar vortex party for next week, with 850 temps crashing to -25C. oh boy -_-

    ReplyDelete
  2. I do believe this arctic cold will be underestimated for us and we will be in the thick of the extreme cold.

    ReplyDelete
  3. It probably won't reach quite the same intensity as the one earlier this month, but could last several days longer.

    ReplyDelete
  4. I have to say that Snowdog was right over HP and weatherguy. Snowdog said it would be a very inactive week with bare ground come Friday morning. Well, it was a very inactive week with no snow and we have bare ground.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Snowdog rules!!!! Plus it is going to be an inactive week next week too. A little cold with a little lake effect snow for the few. Ho hum maybe they will sell active for storms the following week. Just like the Farmers Almanac predicts a big storm for the SB ha ha.

    ReplyDelete
  6. I wish I was not correct. Next week it does look like there will not be any storms of importance again just the nickle and dime lake effect for North of the Thruway. Oh well.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Do not worry it is coming ask Weatherguy, HP, Andy and the alarmist at channel 10. Give it time they just keep pushing it back a week because they believe the model runs that go out for 240 hours. Oh well we will just track you Snowdog because your negativity is not only negative, it is the truth!! People can't handle the truth.

    ReplyDelete
  8. There will be a blizzard in the flower city within the next 3 weeks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No one else has mentioned a blizzard for Rochester in the coming week. Where are you getting your information.

      Delete
  9. Yes I will admit I thought this week would yield more snow and cold than it did. We have bare ground today and temps have not been very cold this week either. I am looking forward to the BITTER COLD that is coming. There is a part of me that wants this cold stretch to come without a single snow flake to reward the CONSTANT COMPLAINING by a few on here. I don't know how much snow will fall from now until end of January but I am hopeful here in Hamlin that the lake will provide for the northern towns. WHO KNOWS???

    ReplyDelete
  10. LES will not be a big deal for anyone in our area. Erie is frozen and the winds with Polar Vortex 2 will not be nearly as strong.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The dry air will go against us as well.

      Delete
    2. Last I checked we get very little snow off of Erie, whose eastern basin is largely open. Also Snowdog, cold air is always dry compared to warm air, and yet that is never a hindrance to lake effect development. Relative humidity is what matters, and from what I've seen the RH should be sufficient throughout the period.

      Delete
  11. I am really not trying to be negative. I am just trying to tell it how I see it. If it comes across negative I am sorry. I love snow and storms just like the rest of you. HP and Weatherguy have been right several times and I have been wrong. Non of us are experts otherwise we would have Meteorolgy degrees. I enjoy everyones comments. Hope for snow!!!!!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  12. The flower city will get a blizzard within the next month.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Wonder if Lovely's uncle will be able to speed in winter driving conditions...

      Delete
    2. He gots him one of dem fo wheel drive Ta-Ho's....He be speedin' fo sho!

      Delete
  13. I have heard some say this next arctic invasion could be just as harsh as the last one and longer? Can anyone weigh in on this?

    ReplyDelete
  14. Will not be nearly as bad maybe -10 wind chills at worst and very little LES.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Not as cold next week as before but pretty cold. However if numbers verify the week of the 27th could be like the one before. It will be an extended harsh cold for two weeks that could be the difference.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Ugh, you people I swear -_-

    From the latest NWS discussion:

    "THE FRIGID WEATHER WILL ENCOURAGE PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. DAILY SNOWFALL FROM THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT...ALTHOUGH TOTAL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE PERIOD COULD ADD UP TO RESPECTABLE AMOUNTS."

    So now we know what we're dealing with for the next week or so: a lengthy period of lake effect which adds up over time. Nothing truly significant but it should keep the snowpack fetish people happy. This is also still looking like a lengthier but less intense cold period than the one earlier this month, with advisory level wind chill values a distinct possibility. So to summarize: cold and snowy, which every winter lover here should be grateful for. Better than sloppy mud for weeks on end.

    As for those who are only satisfied if a storm is imminent, I give you this:

    http://weather.kopn.org/wp/?p=357

    It's a bit sparse on details, but pretty straightforward in hinting at what may occur within a few weeks' time. Look for the +PNA regime to eventually break down, from that point onward the storms will come. Ironically the amplification provided by the +PNA is actually hurting our storm chances by suppressing the southern jet stream well south of the area, and actually "pinching it off" in a sense. This is happening because the resultant strong ridge out West is forcing the strong downstream trough over the East to be centered over the Great Lakes, where to get storminess we would want it centered over the Plains, and ideally a bit weaker. Luckily we have this:

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

    Pretty good indication that the PNA will move closer to neutral by the end of the month, which would bring the southern jet stream back into play and result in a stormy pattern for someone. Factor in the expected cold anomalies in the East for that time frame and that "someone" ends up being the Eastern US. Various experts from various internet places have been hinting at the same thing. Whether Rochester is included in the action or not is obviously still up in the air, and will be until individual storm threats enter the picture. For now, it's all about the pattern.

    ReplyDelete
  17. East of us has a Winter weather advisory for 4-6 inhes of snow. What is that all about????

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. A surface low which will develop over Eastern PA tonight. Says so in the advisory text.

      Delete
  18. I'm of the opinion that complaining about snow being in the form of frequent lake effect rather than big storms is akin to complaining about your championship caliber hockey team winning games by 2 goals instead of 10. It makes you sound spoiled and rotten.

    ReplyDelete
  19. I think Rochester East could see a couple of inches tomorrow from the clipper. I think areas near the lake could see a good amount of snow by the end of next with lake effect everyday. I would say 6-10 of fluff for counties bordering lake Ontario in total next week. What could hamper the Lake effect is the dry air.

    ReplyDelete
  20. I think it's still way too early to be talking about specific amounts, but it looks to me like there will be a substantial northerly component to the prevailing wind direction during this time frame. That would favor areas west of Rochester for the highest totals, but everyone in the Lake Ontario shore counties would receive several days of light to moderate snowfall. The best chance for a Georgian Bay connection to enhance the snowfall would exist across Orleans County.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Earlier today Pittsburgh was reporting thundersnow with 2 inches falling in 20 minutes. That's a rate of 6 inches per hour.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Zone forecast for Monroe County has 2-4 inches through tomorrow afternoon. There may be a brief burst of heavy snow later tonight.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Models and mets backing off real cold temps this week. No real wind and big snows. Seems like a lot of wish casting for this week. That is also starting for the week of the 27th really not impressed that nothing materializes.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Wrong, so wrong, like you literally couldn't be more wrong. Here are the past 4 GFS runs regarding surface temps for next Tuesday night, from least recent to most:

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014011706&time=INSTANT&var=TMPF&hour=114
      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014011712&time=INSTANT&var=TMPF&hour=108
      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014011718&time=INSTANT&var=TMPF&hour=102
      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014011800&time=INSTANT&var=TMPF&hour=096

      All of them look about the same to me, if not slightly colder in the more recent runs. Now here's the 72 hour snowfall from the same 4 runs in the same order ending at the same time frame:

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014011706&time=72&var=ASNOWI&hour=114
      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014011712&time=72&var=ASNOWI&hour=108
      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014011718&time=72&var=ASNOWI&hour=102
      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014011800&time=72&var=ASNOWI&hour=096

      Again, all of them look about the same with some minor fluctuation, and even an upward tick from the 06z run. Bear in mind that a low resolution global model such as the GFS will always be underdone on lake effect amounts because lake effect is entirely mesoscale, which requires a high resolution model to predict accurately. The low resolution model simply broadbrushes the entire region with lighter amounts because it can't "see" any of the heavier bands.

      I'm not in the area currently and won't be for another week, but I follow most of Rochester's TV meteorologists on Twitter and none of them have even come close to backing off on either the cold or the snow for next week. Do us all a favor and go mislead some other crowd to get your kicks.

      Delete
    2. One other thing: all of the potential players for storminess by late month are currently in data sparse regions over the Pacific Ocean. You will not see any of these features appear as eastern storms in any model runs in the near term. Once those features are able to move out of that so-called "no man's land" you'll begin to consistently see storminess on the models for late January and (primarily) early February. That won't happen until the middle of next week at the earliest.

      Delete
    3. Agreed Anon 11:50 and 12:01. I do not now where the previous anon is getting his/her info but no-one is backing down on the cold. In fact all of the mets in Rochester went colder last night with their forecast. Counties North of the Thruway will see a good amount of snow next week with a few inches possible each day starting Sunday night through next Thursday. It will be nickel and dime stuff but it will ad up over time. The hindrance is the short fetch and dry air with a NW NNW wind.

      Delete
  24. I think they underestimated this little clipper. It seems to be over performing. I have had 2 inches already and it is still coming down in Gananda.

    ReplyDelete
  25. At noon yesterday you were in the 3-5 range until 3pm today snowdog

    ReplyDelete
  26. Does anyone know how cold it gets starting Tuesday? Also is it true that it may get colder the week after next week?

    ReplyDelete
  27. Latest GFS and EURO runs are getting worse for those who want snow and cold. If fact GFS showing a warm up at end of month into first week of February. In fact has shown this for several runs. Going to be a mild rest of winter. We got our winter early know fading fast.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. lol okay

      Here are the most recent CFSv2 runs for the month of February:

      http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/glbT2mMonInd1.gif
      http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd2/glbT2mMonInd1.gif
      http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd1/glbT2mMonInd1.gif

      Near to below normal temps, that's the theme in all of them. Meanwhile the operational GFS is the only model that is trying to scoot the cold air away for late month, every other model/ensemble suite is keeping it around. No doubt our temps will modify from the single digit highs expected for midweek, but then again it would be difficult not to. We will stay cold, however, for AT LEAST the next 3 weeks.

      Delete
  28. Significant Lake Snows south of Ontario this week? Very cold air setting in all week?? Coldest air of the SEASON next Sunday, Monday time frame???? Mild rest of the winter starting February?????? I guess we will have to wait and see.... I think the first three could happen. Mild rest of winter????

    ReplyDelete
  29. HP how cold do you think it will get this week and the following week?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Very cold! Lake Ontario might keep temps up a touch along lakeshore with winds having Northerly component. I would say highs within a few degs either way of 10 this week and low single digits highs early next week possible. Lows at or just below zero a few days. I am leaving the exact numbers up to the professionals. We should also keep in mind that the last cold snap was aided by the fresh deep snow pack, which is so far missing this time.

      Delete
  30. The one thing that will limit significant lake effect is the dry air. That is discussed by the NWS out of Buffalo.

    ReplyDelete
  31. The flower city will get a blizzard within the next 5 weeks mark it down.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I can see where this is heading so I'll just skip ahead to the end for you:

      "The flower city will get a blizzard at some point in the future."

      Delete
  32. Thr Great JN at another channel has it brutal cold Tuesday/Wednesday with below 0 temps, winds, and brutal wind chills plus worse the Monday after. Never really that accurate so we will see hopefully we hear from Rochester's most accurate tomorrow.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The NWS forecast has us going below zero on Tuesday night, after a day with highs in the mid/upper single digits. Early the following week may very well turn out to be worse if the Euro model verifies. Keep in mind that it did quite well with the polar vortex invasion earlier this month. The operational GFS is vastly different from all other guidance so it should be discounted for now.

      Delete
  33. Based on everything I'm seeing regarding the pattern for the next 2 weeks, my guess is that KROC finishes near to slightly below normal on snowfall for January.

    ReplyDelete
  34. Going to be cold but winds weak which means wind chills okay.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. With temperatures as low as forecasted there won't need to be very much wind to produce advisory level wind chills.

      Delete
  35. Yes advisory maybe warning like the last PV plunge no.

    ReplyDelete
  36. Honestly I do not care about the cold. I could do without it if it does not come with snow. The cold just increases my heating bill.

    ReplyDelete
  37. Get use to it Snowdog no one even talking about LES amounts. Minor at best and zero storm opportunities the next 2 weeks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No one's talking about lake effect amounts because there's still so much uncertainty. Daily amounts will likely be minor/moderate, but they will add up.

      As for "zero storm opportunities the next 2 weeks," well first of all there is never a 2 week period where storm chances are precisely zero, just periods where the pattern is unfavorable. It just so happens that we are in an unfavorable pattern where the moist subtropical jet is suppressed, and will be until closer to February. The culprit is, has been and will continue to be the strongly positive PNA. Once that puppy goes neutral/negative in about a week's time the subtropical jet will reopen for business and deliver storm opportunities for the East. There is a lot of shortwave energy out in the Pacific that none of the models are currently seeing, and it all has to head east at some point. I am rather confident that the end of January into early February will be an interesting time for many in the eastern US.

      Delete
    2. I hope so. 2 weeks of absolute boredom. It is such a waste of cold air. These clippers are so weak and dry out by the time they get here. Hoping for some lake effect this week.

      Delete
  38. Tonight and especially Monday look to be snowy. Nothing heavy but 2-4 inches is not out of the question.

    ReplyDelete
  39. Keep hoping Snowdog what does the cold look like Tuesday/Wednesday?

    ReplyDelete
  40. Monday morning's commute looks to be very tricky. By 7 am it should be snowing moderately with falling temps and gusty NW breezes.

    ReplyDelete
  41. HP what is your take on Temps Tuesday/Wednesday looks harsh? Also next Sunday/Monday the temps look like they will be really, really harsh if latest EURO data verifies?

    ReplyDelete
  42. This week doesn't look as harsh as the last arctic outbreak; however, it will last most of next week. The wind chills wont be as much of an issue this week as they where last time, but still VERY COLD. I think high temps within a couple degrees either side of 10 and lows a couple degrees either side of zero. Next Sunday COULD BE the coldest day of the season, near zero for highs????

    I will go out on a limb again, and say it looks VERY snowy in northern towns AT TIMES next week into the weekend??? We will see.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The 12Z GFS run has backed off on the cold for late next weekend. It is a long way out so who knows what it will be???

      Delete
  43. I believe the EURO has done better with the cold so fay this winter. I believe it will get brutally cold by next Sunday, Monday. I really hope not.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think it is hard to argue with that statement. I love breaking records even if they are painfully cold ones. BRING ON THE COLD, I will just throw another log on the fire.

      Delete
  44. Must not be anything that harsh no update from News 8 team.

    ReplyDelete
  45. Even the winter weather lover KW has calmed down about the cold and snow. All twitter quiet.

    ReplyDelete
  46. Its Sunday with a holiday tomorrow. Perhaps people are busy or enjoying family. I have been following you guys on here just haven't felt the need to post lately. Was annoying with the negativity recently but people seems to have calmed down especially that rogue "anonymous ". Are we supposed to get some snow when the front comes through? When is that?

    ReplyDelete
  47. not much snow and wind chills will be minus 10 to minus 20 tomorrow night into Tuesday morning.

    ReplyDelete

Blog Archive