Get your daily dose of weather news

with Scott Hetsko, Chief Meteorologist

RSS FEED SUBSCRIBE BY EMAIL

Our weather blog brings you expert perspective on the latest weather news. Our weather experts share the inside scoop with blog entries from the studio and from the field. Check out the latest weather news and storm coverage in our most recent blog entries.

Tuesday, January 28

MILDER AIR, WINTRY MIX THIS WEEKEND


Written By:  Scott Hetsko

A new month begins this weekend and along with it some milder air too.  The image above is a forecast around 1 a.m. Sunday for temperature at around 5,000 feet.  Meteorologists employ this level often because it's an important parameter to determine whether a Winter storm will bring snow, mix or just plain rain.  Notice that little WHITE line over Rochester, that's the freezing line up where precipitation is being produced.

Looks likely that a quick moving storm will bring a shot of snow followed by a period of sleet or freezing rain then colder air flows back in for Sunday and Monday.

99 comments:

  1. Looks like no storms coming again the next 10 days. Same old same old we will hear the pattern change will keep coming and never does.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Not true. There is one to watch mid-next week.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Although trends have been taking this further South and East and a miss for us.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Past day 3, the models tend to have a slight "cold" bias, which means they dig the trough too deep and the storm track is too far south. Here is a good article that explains this better:

    http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/

    Let's not write this one off yet!

    ReplyDelete
  5. Thank you anonymous at 7:44 for that intriguing and informative comment to which we all appreciate. (wonder if you caught the sarcasm? or if you will keep posting the "same old same old" lame, baseless, anonymous comments that have been polluting this blog for too long now). I bet you tell kids there is no Santa Clause when they are real young, instead of letting them hope and dream? Despite your comments I will keep hoping for some more storms.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Cheryl Carol CristalJanuary 29, 2014 at 9:31 AM

    No one should even consider writing off a storm that lurks a week away and has clearly been baffling the models for the past several days with all of the waffling. Many times in my life, and especially this season, I've seen the models overdo the arctic high and squash everything well south, only to steadily weaken the high in the medium range and bring the storm back north. The pre Thanksgiving storm comes to mind especially, that one was predicted on the models to slide harmlessly out to sea until about 3 days beforehand. Last week's big mid Atlantic storm had the same depiction, and the same thing happened. I expect to see this thing come northward again...the only question in my mind is how far north it gets.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Cheryl Carol CristalJanuary 29, 2014 at 9:50 AM

      Addendum: I don't necessarily expect a northward shift in the next set of runs specifically, just at some point ;)

      Delete
  7. Agree with Cheryl! We will have to wait until Sunday for that one to develop and hope we are in the bullseye. Do think this Saturday is nothing big. Would ask Cheryl is the storm next week a juicy one and if yes where will it get a lot of moisture if it does not get it from the gulf?

    ReplyDelete
  8. Also Cheryl is it not true to really only put stock in the 1030 am/pm GFS runs? Those 2 are the most accurate? Also does the EURO run twice at 1 am/pm?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Cheryl Carol CristalJanuary 29, 2014 at 11:30 AM

      Yes, the Euro runs complete at around 1am/pm but full runs aren't available on free sites until about an hour later. InstantWeatherMaps posts runs in real time as they arrive to their servers, starting around 1am or 1pm. Here is a link:

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/ecmwf.php

      This site displays the GFS and the NAM as well. And while I'm at it I might as well post a free site for the GGEM and UKMET as well:

      http://meteocentre.com/models/

      Click "GDPS" to access the GGEM, it's the very first link after "Deterministics."

      Delete
  9. Cheryl Carol CristalJanuary 29, 2014 at 11:25 AM

    Next week's storm is juicier than a ripe tomato, and indeed its moisture comes from the Gulf. The 00z/12z runs of any model generally hold more clout than the 06z/18z runs simply due to better initialization data, although from what I've seen there are no substantial differences in verification rates between runs.

    New GFS says Wagons North. Track from eastern Kentucky to southern Pennsylvania. More waffling, oy vey X_X

    ReplyDelete
  10. These models are very frustrating. We need better models so we can know 2-3 days out if a storm will hit or not.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Cheryl Carol CristalJanuary 29, 2014 at 11:51 AM

      I'm currently majoring in computer engineering, so when our weather models are letter perfect in 5 years or so you can thank me :P

      Delete
  11. Cheryl with that new GFS, even though I know it does not mean much, is that a good track for us?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Cheryl Carol CristalJanuary 29, 2014 at 11:53 AM

      Very good track. I think everyone from Milwaukee to Nashville has seen a good track by now with all of the waffling X_X

      Delete
  12. Cheryl am I correct in saying latest EURO was also a good track for Rochester?

    ReplyDelete
  13. If I am reading correctly the most recent runs for GFS, CMC and Euro all have us in a pretty good snow storm path. They all can not be wrong right? Ha ha yes they could stay tuned many more flip flops the next 4 days. Hopefully for Snowdog and storm lovers it ends up the way the 3 went today.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Cheryl Carol CristalJanuary 29, 2014 at 2:04 PM

    The Euro is indeed a very good track for Rochester. Puts us on the northern edge of the bigger snows, but considering the NW shift these storms usually embark on at this range that is a great position to be in. Unless of course this one decides to be an aberrant and trends into being suppressed or something. Keep in mind that the apparent agreement in the models has only existed for a single cycle, we could easily see divergence again in 12 hours.

    I think one thing is abundantly clear though: the absolute highest amounts will likely be southwest of us, as reflected in most model QPF outputs. This is purely a Gulf origin storm, and those locations are simultaneously closer to the Gulf and solidly inside the below freezing air. Someone in the lower Midwest, probably just east of the Mississippi Valley (think Illinois to eastern Indiana), is going to get utterly smoked. The storm should still be quite impressive once it progresses further east though, it won't lose too much moisture.

    ReplyDelete
  15. What is the timeframe for this storm?

    ReplyDelete
  16. I believe Wednesday night/ Thursday.

    ReplyDelete
  17. When do you think local weather people will begin to talk about this, and look at issuing advisories. For those of us who travel distrances to/from work -- it helps to be able to plans for the week and days. Look at what happened the past day with folks in the southern states who it took 8-10 hours to get home. I know those who want the blizzard to hit would think this is exciting. Just not looking forward to it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This looks less like a blizzard and more like a big snow, at least to me. Local weather people probably won't start talking about this until Friday perhaps. But we still don't know what exactly will happen, the models haven't nailed it down yet.

      Delete
  18. It takes 8-10 hours in the south because they do not have the materials and equipment to maintain roads in snow and ice conditions. In our area it may take longer to commute but roads are typically in OK condition.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Way way way to eealry to be talking about a BIG snow here. So much can and will change. it is only Wednesday. It is a week away. The models will be all ver the place until a day before the storm. KW has been discussing this possibility since the weekend. Scott also mentioned it in his twitter yesterday.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Snowdog you are exactly right way to early to even think about a HUGE snowstorm. That is hard to happen. Things will not even be discussed seriously until weekend. I think Cheryl has done a nice job alerting this possibility to us a few days ago. Said there could be a behemoth of a storm next week. So we should all keep tabs on the model runs and those will change too but it is fun.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Cheryl Carol CristalJanuary 29, 2014 at 5:25 PM

    Never too early to talk about big storms. How they will behave...well that's a different story ;)

    Once those weak waves over the weekend are out of the way we should have a much more solid picture. Right now some semblance of a consensus appears to be developing, especially with the Euro ensemble mean being so close to its operational counterpart, maybe a hair NW. I would still like to see more consistency, as this consensus has only been in place for a single set of runs. Expect to see some more waffling until later Sunday or so, although I strongly suspect we won't be seeing 2 feet of snow depicted in Nashville like on last night's Euro run -_-

    ReplyDelete
  22. This is the big question can Scott televise a weather forecast and deflect a charging, drunk college student with a knee to the groin without any disruptions to his forecast like Jim Cantore can?
    Ray

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Cheryl Carol CristalJanuary 30, 2014 at 2:20 AM

      He would deflect them with overwhelming fabulousness...they'd be so awestruck they'd have no choice but to turn back. Drunk teens can't handle the Hetsko Charm.

      Delete
    2. I'm pretty sure fending off drunk frat guys was part of Scott's undergraduate experience. Scott would be all, "You know it's always warmest (Karate Chop) ahead of a cold front. Back to you.

      Delete
    3. Cheryl Carol CristalJanuary 30, 2014 at 9:51 AM

      lol

      "I'm pretty sure fending off drunk *girls* was part of Scott's undergraduate experience."

      fixed ;D

      Delete
  23. Cheryl Carol CristalJanuary 30, 2014 at 2:12 AM

    Total snowfall over the next 10 days as depicted by the 00z Euro:

    http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014013000/east/ecmwf_tsnow_east_41.png

    Yup.
    Just a single run though, definitely hoping it pans out like this if not better.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Look like it might be a little rainy come Saturday afternoon. That weak storm for Saturday will pass to our West. I hope this does not happen with the storm next week.

    ReplyDelete
  25. Cheryl Carol CristalJanuary 30, 2014 at 7:50 AM

    I may get crucified for this, but I'm actually hoping for a bit of soaking rain soon just to wash away the leftover salt and salt residue. I'm getting a bit tired of tracking rock salt into my apartment. Besides, a further north track for the smaller weekend system would likely indicate a more favorable track for the big guy next week, and I would gladly sacrifice a moderate snowfall if it meant a bigger one later on.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Cheryl what did the GFS (10:30 one) and EURO show in regards to the storm next week?

    ReplyDelete
  27. Where is HP? What is he seeing?
    Ray

    ReplyDelete
  28. Just having a chance to look at over night model runs I think they still look good for Rochester to get a good snowfall at this point? What do you think Cheryl?

    ReplyDelete
  29. Cheryl Carol CristalJanuary 30, 2014 at 9:37 AM

    Basically every model/ensemble mean is on board for a Miller Type B storm, with a primary Gulf origin low tracking to the upper Ohio Valley and transferring to the coast. Run to run consistency is improving somewhat and Rochester does still look good, so the likelihood of a significant snowstorm next week has increased.

    ReplyDelete
  30. I know this would change too but Cheryl do you know what are the QPF numbers at the current time for Rochester?

    ReplyDelete
  31. I wonder what Scott thinks about this potential storm for next week? He usually has a pretty good gut feeling by now even though it is about 5 days out.

    ReplyDelete
  32. Cheryl Carol CristalJanuary 30, 2014 at 10:14 AM

    QPF numbers are all over the place, but they are substantial enough on every model to deliver a significant snowfall at the very least. I have a hunch that the GFS is too dry given the Gulf origins of this system.

    From the Department of Getting Ahead of Ourselves: Another potential storm threat looms for late next week, possibly even larger than this one, but it MAY end up further south if it even happens at all. When I said this would be a pattern for major storms I was not joking around. We've got more immediate fish to fry though, so let's commit that one to the rear shelf for now.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Thanks Cheryl could you post your thoughts of what the 12Z GFS shows? It is coming out shortly.

    ReplyDelete
  34. Cheryl Carol CristalJanuary 30, 2014 at 10:32 AM

    You're gonna have to wait some time for that, I'll be away from home for a few hours starting pretty soon.

    In the meantime, let's play Find the Polar Vortex:
    http://gizmodo.com/a-stunning-visualization-of-the-polar-vortex-1512254399

    ReplyDelete
  35. K and that one you mentioned possibly after the midweek one appears to be pretty far east of us but again way out.

    ReplyDelete
  36. Based on latest GFS and EURO model runs we are still looking good. If things stay the course and that is if I am saying 8-12 inches for Rochester midweek. But I am just a rookie and wonder what News 8, HP and Cheryl are thinking?

    ReplyDelete
  37. And Weatherguy and Snowdog sorry

    ReplyDelete
  38. Cheryl Carol CristalJanuary 30, 2014 at 2:09 PM

    It looks to me like the 12z Euro introduces quite a bit of mixing, with the 0C 850 mb isotherm pushing all the way up to Lake Ontario. I'm going to wait until the Euro ensembles come out before deciding how much stock I'll put into this run. The Euro has been the jumpiest of the models and appears to be pretty far NW of the general consensus. It has also been consistently NW of its ensemble mean. Don't forget, just four runs ago it had this thing in the Gulf states delivering 2 feet of snow to Nashville. Needless to say I'm skeptical.

    The storm afterwards is still there, and on the Euro there's a funky little clipper-type thing sticking off of the main low and into our region. Total snowfall on the model for the next 10 days still looks pretty sweet.

    ReplyDelete
  39. Channel 8 will not even discuss snow totals for a storm that is a week away. I do not blame them as the models will flip until the day off the storm, if it happens. What are you sorry for B?

    ReplyDelete
  40. Cheryl Carol CristalJanuary 30, 2014 at 4:12 PM

    I can't see too much flip-flopping from here on out with such a strong general consensus in place. We'll probably see 50-75 mile ticks from run to run for the next several days, gradually getting smaller as time shortens.

    Here is why I don't trust the most recent Euro right now, illustrated in graphics:

    http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=222727
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=000&fixhh=1&hh=144
    http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=222759

    In case it isn't clear, in the first link the order from left to right is: Euro, GGEM, GFS. The middle link is the UKMET, and the bottom one is the Euro ensemble mean. Notice how the GFS, GGEM and UKMET are in nearly lock-step agreement in low placement at Hour 144, while the Euro operational is around 100 miles off. It is NW of its ensemble mean as well, with an early coastal transfer similar to what the GGEM has. Through all of the flip-flopping, the GGEM has been the least chaotic of the bunch, sans UKMET. The WPC surface low pressure outlook also has a GGEM look to it. Based on all of this, I'd say put the most weight into the GGEM, and the least into the Euro operational.

    But then maybe Scott will have different ideas. Definitely more value in that than any model or blog poster.

    ReplyDelete
  41. Because I forgot to ask you and Weatherguy what are your thoughts about this storm?

    ReplyDelete
  42. Carol Cheryl CristalJanuary 30, 2014 at 4:20 PM

    Since I like the sound of "Carol Cheryl" more than "Cheryl Carol" I've decided to do a little rearranging :P

    WPC discussion on next week:
    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

    ReplyDelete
  43. Oh ok. No problem. Thanks B. I have not had much time to look into this but Carol Cheryl seems very knowledgable about the models. Awesome. The NWS out of Buffalo seems very confused as they are talking snow or rain or mix as they do not know.

    ReplyDelete
  44. Ok Carol Cheryl if GGEM is correct and we put more weight in them what are looking at next week?

    ReplyDelete
  45. Carol Cheryl CristalJanuary 30, 2014 at 5:07 PM

    No model is ever correct. If the current GGEM verified we'd be looking at...a significant snowstorm. Remember, despite the model consensus we're still 6 days out and things have room to change, especially in the QPF department. All I'm recommending is that if you want to paint as accurate a picture as humanly possible right now using just the models, then put the most stock into the GGEM. I forgot to mention two things though:

    -The Euro ensemble mean is also colder than the operational, even relative to its position.
    -Confluence to our north also argues for an earlier transfer as depicted by the GGEM.

    A warmer solution as depicted by the Euro operational is still very much an option, I just believe it to be less justifiable than a GGEM-type solution.

    ReplyDelete
  46. Scott said watching next Wednesday with much interest. The other who usually hypes things up seems like NBD about next week. I think he is still stuck on the cold streak we had. Time will tell. love to hear what Scott is thinking at this time.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The other guys blog says, Late day runs...no changes to general thinking...weak system with mix Saturday, risk of sig winter storms mid week and following weekend

      Delete
  47. As would I!! And IMO, the pattern should become more progressive as we work our way into the beginning of next week, which should guide the LP track further south and east. I would assume models will start to trend that way Sat/Sun, but we shall see....

    ReplyDelete
  48. Rain next week not snow.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Carol Cheryl CristalJanuary 30, 2014 at 7:08 PM

      Right now there is nothing indicating a rain event. Our chances of an all rain event are just about nil anyway, as the cold air already in place should allow for a solid front end thump of snow at the very least. My bets are on something more substantial than that. Still too early to be making declarative statements on what will transpire.

      Delete
  49. Carol Cheryl CristalJanuary 30, 2014 at 7:05 PM

    I've heard that some people are already vastly over-hyping the potential storm for late next week, saying things like the snow will be "measured in feet," and even one person in Maryland saying they received a forecast of 28-34 inches for whatever town they live in. Others who don't even really follow the weather are talking about a "huge blizzard" and the like. I'm absolutely confounded as to where these people are getting their information from, as not even Accuweather has been that overblown. Even Weather Underground isn't indicating any such thing in their chaos infused extended forecasts. And whoever showed a specific storm total to the general public should lose their job as far as I'm concerned. The "measured in feet" statement came from Tony Kornheiser on Pardon the Interruption earlier. That's very alarming to me because he has a lot of people watching him on a regular basis, and those people may get their expectations up only to have them dashed even though he isn't even a weather person. Disproportionate hype at its finest folks, thank goodness we here at the News 8 Blog know better than that :)

    ReplyDelete
  50. Ha ha Tony Kornheiser he does not even know sports. Ok here is the question Carol Cheryl you seem to have weatherknowledge if things are perfect track and everything all snow what amount do you put the midweek storm next week. Give us an educated guess.

    ReplyDelete
  51. IF it were all snow and took a favorable track, I would say 8-12" plus lake enhancement from wrap around. Idk, what do you think CCC?

    ReplyDelete
  52. Looks like we end the month 5 inches below normal in snow. Hopefully we make up for it next week and beyond. We have not had a significant snowstorm around here since Jan 3rd.

    ReplyDelete
  53. Carol Cheryl CristalJanuary 30, 2014 at 9:26 PM

    Oh man putting me on the spot lol. If absolutely everything went perfect, as in perfect track, maximum possible moisture etc...I'd wager about 20 inches. That's if EVERYTHING goes perfectly, which is about as likely as a cat giving birth to a baby walrus. As of now it looks to me like whoever gets the best snow in the Northeast is looking at 12-18 inches, locally higher, so if Rochester ends up in the sweet spot that's what we'd be dealing with IMO. I don't think the models are quite seeing the smaller scale convective features which would serve to enhance snowfall rates in a storm this robust. Like most dynamic southern stream systems, this one looks to have a vigorous low level jet (LLJ) which will transport thunderstorms up into the cold air and lead to a period of intense snowfall for whoever gets caught in its crosshairs. We had a similar storm last season just after Christmas, where the strong LLJ brought heavier convective precipitation up into the cold air and caused some intense snowfall rates, sometimes on the order of 2-3 inches per hour. The end result was nearly a foot in just 7 hours, with much more in the same span in some southern tier locations. This storm probably won't have rates quite that high, but this still looks like the kind of storm that can lay down 6+ inches in only 4-6 hours or so just from the LLJ snows. I distinctly remember the models trending higher on QPF in the days leading up to that Christmas storm, and I can easily see the same thing happening here unless the storm trends significantly weaker. Lake enhancement doesn't look like it'll play much of a part unless the colder air wraps in faster, but as of now this setup lacks particularly cold mid level cold.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Carol Cheryl CristalJanuary 30, 2014 at 9:29 PM

      "...particularly cold mid level cold."

      -Sincerely,
      The Department of Redundancy Department

      Delete
  54. Any chance we can get in touch with Tony Kornheiser an see what he thinks about the midweek storm since he has people measuring in feet next weekend ha ha.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Carol Cheryl CristalJanuary 30, 2014 at 9:56 PM

      http://1-media-cdn.foolz.us/ffuuka/board/q/image/1344/73/1344737752900.jpg

      Delete
  55. Next weeks storm looks pretty big. It looks like it could snow from early Wednesday morning through Friday with lake effect. I am not going to get too excited as it is still far out. I get my hopes up too soon.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So you concede that it is still possible for Rochester to get a decent snow this winter? Are you feeling ok?

      Delete
  56. Scott on the 7 day forecast on the website has mix on Wednesday.

    ReplyDelete
  57. Carol Cheryl CristalJanuary 30, 2014 at 10:04 PM

    One important lesson I've learned from numerous heartbreaks in winter time: always keep your expectations reasonably low or vague. For example: next week I expect a decent snowfall out of the storm. Do I discount the possibility of something more? Absolutely not, but I don't set my heart on it either. Going the conservative route on expectations is a great mood stabilizer, makes the roller coaster much more tolerable and eliminates unhealthy highs and lows. Avoid falling for extremes on either end of the spectrum.

    ReplyDelete
  58. Who are you CCC? Are you the mysterious blogger Andrew who has disappeared the last year?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Carol Cheryl CristalJanuary 30, 2014 at 10:21 PM

      Not at all lol. If I were Andrew I'd be all like "I'm a genius at everything look how smart I am at weather huehuehuaheuhueahue." I've actually been here for a few years, posting anonymously until a few days ago. I've seen Andrew in action, little bugger probably left when he realized he wasn't a know-it-all after being wrong so many times. I may be rather knowledgeable but I recognize that I am fallible as well, and I can guarantee you that I will be wrong about something at some point. And unlike Scott I can get away with it because I'm just a lowly blogger :P

      Delete
    2. Ha Ha Ha many have left the blog maybe they will come back with big storm. Are you going to look at the 12Z GFS and share with us?

      Delete
    3. Carol Cheryl CristalJanuary 30, 2014 at 11:20 PM

      Depends on how much I need to do tomorrow. Life has a nasty habit of interfering with storm tracking.

      Delete
  59. Climatologically (if that's a word), the track that both the GFS and the Euro take the LP are extremely rare and unlikely... But again, time will tell. Regardless, we are going to have our fair chances of storms in Feb. and beyond!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Carol Cheryl CristalJanuary 30, 2014 at 10:24 PM

      I noticed that in both winters Andy brought up in recent posts, March was a very snowy month. We can only hope his statistical wizardry translates into crazy snowstorms in the weeks before St. Paddy's Day...

      Delete
  60. So what are you saying Weatherguy is that good or bad?

    ReplyDelete
  61. Hopefully good! Either the progressive flow influenced by the pacific ridge breaking down takes it further south or a secondary coastal low forms and pulls it south and east. But honestly I'm not banking on anything until News 8 weighs in, they're the ones with a 4+ college degree in meteorology.

    ReplyDelete
  62. Carol Cheryl CristalJanuary 30, 2014 at 10:33 PM

    I think I found out where the "Blizzardgeddon" hype came from. This article explains:

    http://www.nymetroweather.com/2014/01/30/understanding-difference-potential-hype/

    I recommend reading the whole thing, it goes on to explain how there is more to forecasting than just model runs. A lesson every youthful enthusiast needs to learn, however many there may be here.

    ReplyDelete
  63. FYI, the latest GFS has trended colder for this weekend's event, maybe a little less rain and little more snow after all!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Carol Cheryl CristalJanuary 30, 2014 at 11:18 PM

      Also south/colder on the midweek storm. Anyone worried about a continued NW trend can breathe a little easier now as the 18z run tracked the storm uncomfortably close by.

      I just wish there was more northern stream interaction...we'd be dealing with a larger snow shield and higher ratios most likely. As it stands, we have warm advection and lower ratios to contend with. The abundance of surface cold combined with a relative lack of mid level cold should result in a broad zone of mixed precip, and unfortunately this storm appears primed to dump a whole heap of freezing rain on someone as a result.

      I believe northern stream interaction is why the late week system is being pegged as the larger of the two.

      Delete
    2. So not that big of a deal CCC? Could we get an ice storm?

      Delete
    3. Carol Cheryl CristalJanuary 30, 2014 at 11:30 PM

      I didn't mean to imply that this won't be a prolific snow producer, I still believe it will be. I'm just saying that if we had more mid level cold air we'd be talking much higher snow amounts and more wiggle room regarding model shifts as well. I think the depth of the cold air at our latitude pretty much nullifies our chances of an ice storm, I was mostly referring to the Ohio Valley when I brought that up. The cold air is shallower there, hence the elevated icing threat. The Hudson Valley may also see nasty icing issues, as stronger warm advection in that region may force more warm air into the mid levels while any developing secondary low locks the surface cold in place.

      Delete
    4. Scott said snow and mix on his forecast tonight.

      Delete
    5. Carol Cheryl CristalJanuary 30, 2014 at 11:34 PM

      If future model runs continue to keep the storm south of earlier runs you will see adjustments to that forecast.

      Actually, you can bank on forecast adjustments period ;O

      Delete
  64. What about next week Weatherguy what does latest GFS say?

    ReplyDelete
  65. Carol Cheryl CristalJanuary 30, 2014 at 11:41 PM

    And here's why you don't spread rumors about ginormous blizzards 10 days in advance: the GFS now tracks that storm eastward through northern Ohio and delivers 40 degree rain to the big snow zone from last night's Euro control run. Very favorable track for us though lol.

    ReplyDelete
  66. Here is my 2 cents.

    Saturdays weak system. Starts as light snow and accumulates maybe an inch before turning to rain. It may change back to a brief period of snow Saturday night before ending. Maybe another inch. NBD

    Wednesday-Thursday - I do not see this as a big deal, It is only a 1007mb low when it passes to our South. Not a huge snow maker. Maybe small to mid-sized. 5-7" with maybe some lake effect after that.

    Next weekends storm. Looks stronger right now but the models have been doing this all year. They show a BIG storm only to weaken it considerably as we get closer. The same is happening with next Wednesdays storm.

    Just my opinion.

    ReplyDelete
  67. Rain Wednesday a great possibility according to weather outlets this morning.

    ReplyDelete
  68. Where is CCC we need an update! Things are sounding bad according to Snowdog.

    ReplyDelete
  69. Wow no updates from CCC or anyone. The storm potential must be shot!!

    ReplyDelete
  70. CCC said he may be busy today, no news it not bad news, plus we are still far away from next wednesday, no need to freak out yet

    ReplyDelete
  71. Scott on the website 7 day has medium light mix Wednesday and light snow Tuesday. He clearly thinks this is NBD.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That is computer generated and not accurate.

      Delete
  72. I am not an expert but the just released 12Z GFS still looks good for 8-10 of snow for Rochester. Am I right or not. Wish an expert would write what they are thinking? The 12Z GFS much more reliable than the 6Z.

    ReplyDelete
  73. Carol Cheryl CristalJanuary 31, 2014 at 11:38 AM

    Taking a short break to stop in and clear the air somewhat. Yeah this doesn't seem like the most vigorous storm just by the central pressure, but I mean come on:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014013112&time=48&var=PRMSL&hour=120

    Certainly doesn't have the look of a weak storm to me. It's a sopping wet Gulf storm as well so it doesn't even need to be that strong to produce a lot of precipitation. Total snowfall from that run verbatim is on the order of 8-12 inches, which is higher than previous runs. I think what we want to see for an ideal setup is a stronger low further west, with stronger confluence leading to an earlier transfer. This looks like the kind of storm where the places that cash in the most are the ones who simultaneously stay below freezing and take the most direct hit from the low level jet. Residual moisture from the jet should linger during the coastal transfer as well. Sadly our ideal setup MAY pose a Catch-22 of sorts, where in order to get a stronger and more westerly storm we need the confluence to be weaker, which would result in less snow. Not entirely sure on that so don't quote me on it, especially since I've seen stronger solutions with both weaker and stronger confluence. A stronger Atlantic ridge would help on that front (pun intended) as well. This stuff's complicated yo :c

    ReplyDelete
  74. Will be interesting what the next EURO shows at 1:00 pm.

    ReplyDelete
  75. Is there not a concern with a major ice storm because I am? That is why I am hoping the News 8 team will weigh in on this potential. We all get nervous when we hear ice storms around here. There is talk about major ice in areas to our west and south? What about here?

    ReplyDelete
  76. Would agreed no one from the local stations have even talked about an ice storm or anything about the significant snow/rain for the weekend or next week. For those who have events and activities planned -- need to get a sense of what are the possibilities so that decisions can be made or plans put into place.

    ReplyDelete

Blog Archive