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Tuesday, January 14

SLOWLY INCHING BACK TO A JANUARY FEEL

Written by John DiPasquale:

The January Thaw will be slipping away over the next few days & into the weekend with the return of more typical January weather.  A reinforcing shot of colder air will move in first thing Wednesday with a little snow, mix & rain that will exit during the midday & afternoon.  Temperatures will go from 35 to 40 during the morning to the low to mid 30s later in the day behind the front.  A little black ice could very well develop to finish out our Wednesday. 

Thursday looks quiet and seasonably chilly, & then a clipper like system will throw a little snow our way Thursday night into Friday with minor accumulations expected.  Behind this clipper it will turn blustery & colder for the weekend with some snow showers & a few squalls Saturday & then a little general snow Saturday night & again Sunday from a couple of fast moving systems that will reinforce the cold air.  Highs will be in the 20s over the weekend & possibly turn even colder than that early to mid next week.  Stay tuned for updates through the weekend. 

20 comments:

  1. Ho hum. Yawn, Yawn.

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  2. I agree with Anon Ho hum. This is what HP and all have been saying is the real return to winter? If this is winter then I say what a joke.

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  3. Let's see, we have the return of:

    1. cold
    2. snow

    And winter in Rochester typically consists of:

    1. cold
    2. snow

    Seems to me that this about as real a return to winter as one can have. Maybe it's not the most compelling pattern but at least there are things to track. So before the obligatory whining continues full force again I ask this: would you rather see a pattern where temps remain locked above freezing for 2 weeks and we get nothing but cold soaking rain every couple of days? Would that be more "exciting" to you? I feel like some of you have the expectation that winter is supposed to feature a big storm every 5 to 10 days, which is about as unreasonable as it gets. Now feed this into your eyeballs: we've already had 3 separate snowfalls of more than 6 inches this season. Rochester averages 4-5 snowfalls of more than 6 inches per season according to Dr. Jeff Masters (for most of us it's closer to 4):

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/heavy-snowfall-in-a-warming-world

    So based on that average we should only expect 1, maybe 2 more such snowfalls over the next couple of months. This is not a prediction of any sort and I would love for it to be more than that, but it seems this blog has a problem with high expectations and it leads to a lot of obnoxious complaining. Set your expectations lower (but not unreasonably so) and you'll have a much better time.

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  4. I agree with ANON 4:13 but we are only 8 inches above normal for the year now and with no real snow events in sight we me be at just normal for the year come next week. I do not remember 3 separate snowfalls of 6" or greater though. I know we have had 2 and that is mostly near the lake. Folks away from the lake have not seen nearly as much snow as we have this year. I do not think 48 inches is something to brag about but it is ok and with a lot of winter left I think we will easily see above 100" officially. I know for me I want the BIG storm. The one for the record books. I know for us they are few and far between.

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    Replies
    1. Chris now in PenfieldJanuary 14, 2014 at 8:23 PM

      I believe we had a 6-7" around Thanksgiving…another 6"er around mid-December and the last one, less than two weeks ago, was 12-20".

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    2. "The one for the record books. I know for us they are few and far between."

      Not just for us, for EVERYONE. There isn't a single place on Earth that sees record storms on a regular basis, not even the east coast (even though it might seem that way recently). That's why they end up in the books in the first place...because they're very infrequent and atypical. As for our 3 snowfalls of 6+ inches, I'll list them out along with their official airport totals (the latter two of these can be verified at the NWS Buffalo climate page under the Observed Weather tab, you'll just have to trust me on the first one):

      1. Pre Thanksgiving storm, November 26-27 (6.2 inches with additional lake effect afterwards)
      2. Mid December storm, December 14-15 (6.7 inches)
      3. Post New Years storm, January 1-3 (11.0 inches)

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  5. I am predicting a blizzard next week right in the flower city.

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    Replies
    1. I am predicting you will be wrong, but I am rooting for you to be right.

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  6. The next real chance of any snow will be Sunday but even that looks minor.

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  7. Nothing showing on the models through next week. Very quiet pattern. January may end up well below normal in snowfall if this pattern continues.

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    Replies
    1. Thankfully it won't...it's going to get colder at the very least. That will set us up for lake effect snow. Yes I know guys, lake effect isn't "real snow." -_-

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  8. I am predicting a blizzard within the next two weeks in the flower city.

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  9. Sum up the latest GFS model run, BORING! Stay tuned for the next EURO run at 1:00pm and that will be BORING too.

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  10. If I've learned anything over the years it's to never judge a pattern based on long range surface QPF frames of the GFS. Check this out:

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

    Below normal temps, above normal precipitation, 4 out of 5 confidence. Take it for what it's worth, which is a lot more than any individual model.

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  11. Ho Hum!!!!! Boring and bare ground. A total waste of cold air.

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  12. Complaining won't help.

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  13. It's been 5 days without snow people, still have a ways to go. The next 2 weeks look to be cold and snowy so hang in there for a few more days...

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    Replies
    1. Right? Some people here just look for any excuse to complain. It got old years ago.

      Delete
  14. Jo Anne KleehammerJanuary 22, 2014 at 4:38 PM

    Is there any chance that it was really -13 in Brockport NY this morning? That is what my car thermometer read at about 8:00. When I left my garage it read 17 as I drove to work it kept dropping and stopped at -13. YIKES!

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  15. When will this torturous winter be over?!! OMG!!!!! # springfever

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