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Wednesday, January 1

VERY COLD & SNOWY CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS




Written by John DiPasquale: 


HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!

A brisk, cold & quiet beginning to 2014 today will be followed by snowy & even colder & windier times evolving tonight through the start of Friday.  A storm developing & moving out of the Upper Midwest will deliver some light snow into the area late today into tonight.  The snow intensity should increase late tonight into Thursday, as deformation zone sets up & leads about 1 to 3 or 4" of snow tonight & 3 to 6" on Thursday with winds slowly increasing too.  Temperatures will dropping into the low teens tonight & not climbing much on Thursday with highs maybe making it to around 15 with wind chills around 0 with some blowing & drifting at times.  The storm will transfer it's energy & merge with another developing storm off the Mid-Atlantic Coast late Thursday & Thursday night and as the storm off the coast takes over will pull the storm snow away pretty quickly Thursday night, which is when the lake snows should evolve on a bitter north-northeast flow for awhile Thursday night into the start of Friday.  Lake snows will likely taper off by Friday afternoon with another 2 to 6", if not a bit more, likely to accumulate Thursday night & Friday morning across much of the area.  This should lead to snowfall totals by midday Friday of about 8 to 14", if not a little more in isolated locales where the heaviest lake snows occur.  The other big story will be the falling temperatures & wind chills & some blowing & drifting.  Highs on Thursday will only make the low to mid teens, while single digits will be felt Thursday night & Friday with wind chills around 0 Thursday & going well below 0 Thursday night into Friday making for dangerous conditions to be out for any extended period of time.  Remember the pets.  Keep them in as much as possible too. 

Temperatures will warm to more seasonable levels over the weekend with some sun Saturday & a little more snow Sunday, which could get interesting again Sunday night into the start of Monday.  Stay tuned...

Have a great day everyone, & try to stay warm! 

22 comments:

  1. Obviously the National Weather office in Buffalo does not agree with John hence a WWA and not a warning.

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  2. John, thanks for the update. Lets hope the lake pulls its weight and snow totals verify.

    There is very little doubt in my mind that this Jan. is going to end up WELL ABOVE average snowfall for WNY.

    Andy, I think the stats are great. I could see this winter near 130 before it is over. I believe the winter of 59-60 was the winter Channel 9 thought this winter would resemble. I might be wrong, but that would be an huge total to shoot for WHO KNOWS.

    The Canadian GEM 12Z run is very similar to its earlier 00Z run. Low pressure rapidly intensifying over Eastern NY heading north and bombing out, we can only hope for that to happen. GFS is much weaker and further east. Hopefully 12Z EURO jumps on easterly track again. VERY SNOWY FOR SURE!!

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  3. ACCUWEATHER's long range actually shows a rather mild January after the first 10 days of the month.

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  4. I never buy into long range forecasts. I think first 2 weeks are going to give us a BIG TIME start. I am wrong a lot so who knows.

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  5. we have almost an inch so far here in Ontario, NY and that is since 12 noon

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  6. I'm thinking a leaf blower may work best for this storms fluffy snow LOL. It will be so light and fluffy with how cold it will be. snow blower is almost overkill.

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  7. HP. I just looked at the GFS and it has 997 MB low bombing over Eastern NY as well just like the GEM.

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  8. Snowdog is that for current storm tom. or next Monday?

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  9. Sunday/Monday. The GEM and GFS are very similar. The outlier is the EURO.

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  10. WSWs for southern counties including Syracuse.

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  11. If this remains an advisory event it will be quite a robust one. Lots of blowing and drifting combined with very low wind chills will make this storm worse than it appears at first blush.

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  12. Do not see a great big participation shield on the radar. I think 3-5 inches more accurate.

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    Replies
    1. The precip shield will grow over time as the storm intensifies.

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  13. Monroe and Wayne counties have been upgraded to winter storm warning and wind chill advisory wind chills to -20 and snow of 7-14 inches

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  14. SREF plume continues to advertise much higher amounts, with substantial clustering of members in the 18-24 inch range. Obviously that's way too much, in fact the SREF has a tendency to overdo precipitation just like the NAM. It also appears to be struggling to resolve the snowfall with the very cold temps, and thus it is overshooting snow ratios. A good assumption here IMO is that the final total will be half of that range. So cutting the range in half yields a 9-12 inch snowfall.

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  15. Forecasted amounts have increased across the board, and Winter Storm Warnings have been posted for central sections of the CWA including Metro Rochester. If this keeps up the NWS may need to upgrade the western counties too.

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  16. The EURO ensembles are also showing the LP that forms on the coast more west than before. I also again think we will get strong lake enhancement. Not surprised if we get somewhere between 12-18 inches by Friday.

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  17. If reading correctly latest NAM has us with a good deal of snow? I know NAM not good long range but has been pretty good when closer to storm. Please provide feedback with what I have said. Again not an expert.

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  18. For Sunday Monday event: From another channel

    Way early on the next event, but EURO/ Canadian ensembles suggest ROC under the snow gun again Sun night/Mon. For sure, frigid thereafter.

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  19. It looks like I was wring as well as HP about warnings going up. They are now up,

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  20. Why is the veteran Hetsko having to work the holidays this year?

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  21. Careful drive in -- roads not good. For those who wanted the snow, it is here.

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