Get your daily dose of weather news

with Scott Hetsko, Chief Meteorologist

RSS FEED SUBSCRIBE BY EMAIL

Our weather blog brings you expert perspective on the latest weather news. Our weather experts share the inside scoop with blog entries from the studio and from the field. Check out the latest weather news and storm coverage in our most recent blog entries.

Monday, January 27

WIND CHILL WARNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY MORNING


Written by John DiPasquale:

Lake snows will affect the lake shore communities at times through much of tonight, before the snow band makes a more decided push toward the north, as winds will become more southwesterly late tonight into Tuesday & Wednesday.  Since Erie is mainly frozen over, I do not expect much to come off Erie Tuesday into Wednesday, so it should be pretty sunny & mainly snow free, but it will bitterly cold!  Best chance for accumulating snows will be across far Northern Orleans, Monroe, & Wayne counties over the next 12 to 18 hours.  Much of Eastern Wayne MAY be affected by the snow band for awhile tonight, but most of the viewing area will not see much snow over the next couple days, just a lot of cold. 

Temperatures will be plunging to around or just below 0 tonight, & then only rebounding into the low teens for highs Tuesday, & then well into the teens Wednesday with the help of some sunshine, which will be nice, but will not help much.  Wind chills Warnings are up for most of the viewing area for late tonight through much of Tuesday morning, as feel like readings will likely be dropping into the -25 to -15 range, & possibly as low as -30 at times during this time frame!!  Dangerous to say the least!  Have a winter safely kit in the car if you will be doing any significant travel in the next day or two, just in case your vehicle breaks down...
Temperatures will recover to more seasonable levels for the last half of the week into the weekend with at least a little snow possible Thursday night into Friday & again Saturday night into Super Bowl Sunday with a couple of systems passing by to the south.  Stay tuned.

Have a great rest of your Monday & do what you can to stay warm WNY!
 

39 comments:

  1. Anon from yesterday could be on to the behemoth possible storm for the February 4th/5th time frame. Many models are on board at the current time for this to be an interior snowstorm. Still early but if still showing in a few days then snow lovers may get excited.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This will change a thousand times before then.

      Delete
    2. What does interior snowstorm mean?

      Delete
    3. Away from the coast probably.

      Delete
  2. I'm thinking about covering myself in scalding hot lava so I don't freeze to death on my way to the store later -_-

    Once this polar vortex finally starts retreating you can bank on me being the first one there to give it the ol' Bronx Salute.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Ho Hum. The boring continues.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not for long...

      Delete
    2. How can you say that this morning was boring. Perhaps you did not drive into work through white out conditions and several inches of now.

      Delete
    3. I did but it only lasted 20 minutes at most and put down a whppoing inch. I would like a real snowstorm for a change that we have not see since December.

      Delete
    4. "I would like a real snowstorm for a change that we have not see since December."

      So what would you call this then...

      http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BUF&issuedby=BUF&product=PNS&format=CI&version=49&glossary=0

      "ROCHESTER INTL ARPT 10.9 700 AM 1/03 ASOS"

      Delete
  4. John says 3-7inches along the lake shore. Scott just said on TV, that band wont move south. Which one is it?

    ReplyDelete
  5. I realize most people don't care about windchill as much snow, but I find the concept of interesting. A couple weeks ago, I posted this spreadsheet I made of the rate of change in wind chill per degree, and per mph.

    https://app.box.com/s/0bjatx6yhpw68jupv5yv

    based on the formula for windchill here
    http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/windchill/index.shtml

    For winds over 10 mph and temperatures either side of 0 F, wind chill drops about 1.3 to 1.4 degrees for every 1 degree drop in temperature.

    Windchill is very sensitive to wind at low speeds, and less sensitive at high speeds. At 0 F and 5 mph, a 1 mph change decreases windchill by a whopping 1.48 degrees. By 20 mph that same 1 mph increase, decreases windchill by a mere 0.46 degrees.

    Practically speaking air temperature plays a much larger role than wind speed. Take the wind chill warning criteria of 25 wc. At -5F, the wind need only blow 15 mph. At 0F, the wind need blow about 25 mph. At +5F, wind would need to blow 50+ mph to reaching -25 wc!

    So... who else thinks windchill is awesome!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think all weather is awesome. Some of these whippersnappers here need to learn how to appreciate more than just big snowstorms.

      Delete
  6. This is going to be a fun week model wise starting Wednesday... Let the predictions begin!

    ReplyDelete
  7. February usually becomes more active for storms as Gulf begins to open a little more along with warmer air in the South.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Good. I will take warmer temps and more storms any day. Hopefully this will be the end of bitter cold for the season. We will end below normal in snowfall for January. Not by much though. Hopefully we get storms coming soon. Interesting to see the deep South under Winter storm warnings. How often do you see that?

    ReplyDelete
  9. I know it is really early but that storm for next week does look big BUT the EURO has it West of us which would mean Rain, and lots of it, as the dominant precip. type. I know it will change but hopefully it moves more East. The GFS also shows it West of us.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There is a weekend system on the Euro which tracks just west of us, then a larger one a few days later that tracks through the Mid Atlantic states. The GFS has both systems tracking south and east. Were you looking at outdated runs perhaps? I don't see any storms tracking west of us on the GFS.

      Delete
  10. will Rochester schools be opened?

    ReplyDelete
  11. It's Regents week at the local high schools so it's possible that they will be extra stubborn. However, my guess would be that they close K-8 and keep the high schools open...

    ReplyDelete
  12. Euro control run snowfall for the upcoming 10 day period using Weatherbell's algorithm:

    http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=221978

    These maps are generally pretty poor at depicting snowfall amounts, but this should yield a decent general outline regarding the type of pattern we'll be contending with, at least relating to placement of snowfall through early February. Amounts aren't really important right now, so don't fret if you aren't satisfied with the ones in this map (I strongly doubt anyone here would be).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks for the link Anon! Definitely paints a more hopeful picture for those who are dying for storms.

      Delete
  13. Going to my guy Anon for an update. First one to mention a possible behemoth storm next Wednesday timeframe. Any updates on what models have shown recently Anon?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The trend has been to place the storm further south and east, which reverses the previous trend of north and west. Still not a totally clear picture and still plenty of time for shifts to happen.

      Delete
  14. The possible big storm next week will be pushed south and east of us because of big blocking HP to our north. It will suppress the storm. Recent models have shown this being the case.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Way too soon to say that, especially since the trend all winter has been for storms to trend NW as they near.

      Delete
  15. There will be a blizzard in the Flower City within the next 7 weeks! Mark it down.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What do you base your comment on?

      Delete
    2. Odds my man odds! We are due for a doozy have not had one in a while.

      Delete
  16. This blog is funny. Almost everyone posts as "Anonymous" yet people are saying, hey look what I said back on this day, or hey Anonymous what do you think, you've been right before! LOL. Why don't any of you just start using a name, heck, even just a letter or character, so there's some way to distinguish between each other?! I'm starting to think that every single Anonymous post is really just one person, some schizophrenic that has nothing better to do.

    ReplyDelete
  17. I am B and I say Blizzaed with in the next 7 weeks in the Flower City.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Funny latest 12Z GFS has storms as GLCs now. Think someone said before track will change 100 times before next weekend. One trhing for sure it that there will be a major storm some where next Weds/Thursday time frame. That is good question is for who and what type of precipitation? The other Anon who originally posted a possible be hemoth of a storm is right on!

    ReplyDelete
  19. Cheryl Carol CristalJanuary 28, 2014 at 12:51 PM

    Fine, I'll tag myself with a name finally. For the record, it is an Archer reference and I am a guy.

    The 12z GFS went way north from its previous runs, with a track across the Finger Lakes. The GGEM is further south across southern PA. There looks to be some kind of system during the weekend ahead of this one, not as large but still interesting. The waffling continues...

    ReplyDelete
  20. Could be a rain/snow mix this weekend as the system is trending west.

    ReplyDelete
  21. It looks to start as snow and then to rain for this system on Saturday. I hope we do not start with this West track again now that will get more active.

    ReplyDelete
  22. It's only Tuesday guys...

    ReplyDelete
  23. Cheryl Carol CristalJanuary 28, 2014 at 6:25 PM

    FWIW, the GFS and Euro ensemble means are both south of their operational counterparts. The 18z GFS appears to track the storm about 75-100 miles south of its 12z run. No clear trends at all with this thing, just lots of bouncing around. Given that the models were off by quite a bit on today's southern storm even just 24 hours ago, I wouldn't expect any sort of solid handle on this one for several days, possibly not even until after the weekend. The arctic train looks like it wants to return afterwards as well, albeit not as strongly as we've seen recently. And this is straight from the Department of Fantastical Possibilities, but if the subtropical jet can remain active with deeper cold air in place...well, just put two and two together ;)

    ReplyDelete

Blog Archive