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Thursday, January 2

WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES...

Written by John DiPasquale:

UPDATED SNOWFALL TOTAL MAP:

CHIEF METEOROLOGIST SCOTT HETSKO WILL HAVE ANOTHER UPDATE ON THE SNOWFALL FORECAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON &/OR EVENING, IF NECESSARY.

After several inches of snow fell Wednesday night into early Thursday due to a deformation zone and some lake enhancement across Northern & Western Monroe, Eastern Orleans & Northern Wayne counties, a steady accumulating snow will continue from the storm right through early tonight.  At times the snow could become heavy this afternoon & early tonight, which will likely make for a rough late afternoon & evening commute with some blowing & drifting due to winds increasing a bit too.  It appears the jackpot for this storm will be across the aforementioned areas with 16 to 20" a good bet thanks to lake enhancement & more concentrated lake snows tonight into Friday morning, while the rest of the area north of the Thruway should pick up 10 to 16" & about 6 to 12" for the rest of the viewing area with a bit more in spots across the Finger Lakes.     

The other big story will be the bitterly cold temperatures & dangerously cold wind chills developing late today & especially tonight into Friday morning.  Temperatures will back there way into the single digits later this afternoon & evening & ultimately rest down around 0 later tonight & early Friday with wind chills dipping to -20 to -10 for much of tonight & Friday morning.  Those same nasty winds will also cause some significant blowing and drifting snows through the period.  Come Friday afternoon winds will begin to ease & snow should be ending for most with some sun developing. 

A much milder weekend is on tap, with even some sun Saturday, but once again things could get interesting later Sunday into Monday with another storm riding up an Arctic cold front.  Stay tuned... 

29 comments:

  1. Thanks John... Its been a long time since totals with increased almost every forecast. Normally they are going down, lol.. I hope everyone is happy finally? Im sure some will be mad we didnt get 30inches lol

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    1. "Come On!! We ALWAYS miss the paralyzing blizzard! This storm is a bust, Winter is OVER."

      How does that sound David? hahhahahah btw, we are getting hammered here in Greece

      Doug

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  2. Has gotten windy in Fairport the last couple hours. Snow has been on the light side with maybe another 1" on top of the 4" by 9am this morning.

    Andy

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  3. New Euro on next week's storm: 984 mb centered over the northeast portion of Lake Ontario, tight pressure gradient just west of the center. Track is similar to previous runs. It should be noted that the ensemble means for most models have been east of their operational counterparts.

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  4. And Anon 1:43 what does that mean for Rochester?

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    1. It means the final track is still up in the air, anything from a major snowstorm to a slopfest is still on the table. Personally I'd hedge towards an eventual eastward shift in the operational models given the setup with the pressing arctic high and the fact that the ensembles are more east. The only exception to any potential eastward shift in my mind is the operational GFS, which still insists on a weaker storm tracking along the coast.

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  5. Updated NWS storm total map puts the vast majority of Monroe County into a 14"+ zone, with a small zone of 18+ centered over the city.

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  6. Blowing a bit in Fairport and have measured 8" so far.

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  7. This storm is starting to look like V-Day Lite to me. That is not good for me...I was in Buffalo for that one and I'm in Buffalo for this one too. WNY's true synoptic screw zone >:(

    /complaining

    Anyway enjoy the storm guys, I'll be busy tracking my light snow and gentle breeze.

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  8. Snow has been light all day in Gananda with a few bursts of heavier snow. Nothing to impressive though. About 6-7" has fallen so far.

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  9. Latest discussion on next week's storm:

    "TAKING A BROAD CONSENSUS OF THE 00/12Z RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GGEM...THE MOST LIKELY TRACK IS ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK. THIS SAID...THE MORE WESTWARD ECMWF TRACK IS STILL PLAUSIBLE. GIVEN THIS...EXPECT PRIMARILY SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...HOWEVER A PERIOD OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE EAST OF A ROCHESTER TO WATERTOWN LINE. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN ACCUMULATIONS...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH SEVERAL INCHES OR MORE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM IT IS UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE THE REALLY BIG SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WE HAVE SEEN WITH SOME SYSTEMS THIS YEAR. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY."

    Huh? Really big snowfall amounts? The biggest widespread event so far this year (not including this one) dropped like 10 inches at most. If that's their idea of "really big" then their standards must've really gone down lol. I think they're referring to this season's lake effect events though. Anyway it reads like they're still leaning towards a consensus track and shying away from a track as far west as the Euro, but it looks to be a close call regarding an all snow event here. Lots of fun on the way folks.

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  10. Yeah I though that was funny. We have not seen BIG snowfall amounts unless you are East of the lakes. Sometimes I think they have there head up their butts. It looks like areas North of 104 will be the BIG winners on this one. There is a report of 17" in Williamson??? I really question that. It has not been very heavy hear in Gananda all day. Light steady snow. We will see what happens with the Sunday/Monday storm. I will not be the BIG one we all want but it could be mid-sized.

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    1. I live in Ontario and commute from Penfield and it's a night and day difference just a few miles south and north of 104. We have a good 16" on the ground right now so I wouldn't question the Williamson numbers.

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  11. Well it likely won't produce huge amounts of snow but it could still be a quick heavy-hitter, maybe like last year's post Christmas storm but with more wind.

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  12. NBD with the Sun/Mon storm. Track a problem and more importantly not a lot of moisture. We will get 2-4 tops.

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    1. Disagree...both the Euro and the GEM have copious amounts of moisture, are NW of their ensemble means and trending SE with time. GFS is too dry IMO and hasn't had a good handle on this thing anyway. Way too early to downplay this one.

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  13. Snow finally winding down on radar.

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  14. How often can we say we got a 2 day snowstorm that wasn't just intermittent lake effect? Can't wait to see the final lakeshore totals...betting some areas will pass 2 feet by the time it completely ends.

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    Replies
    1. 2ft will be very local north of 104. Mist of us will not come close to that.

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    2. Ya duh, that's why I said SOME areas, gawd :P

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  15. I am not sure about storm track and snow amounts but I do believe the arctic cold is being underestimated. I think Tuesday morning we could get close to minus 10 with WCs dangerous.

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  16. What links you guys using for the European Models? The link I used to use, stopped working..

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  17. About 8" in Gananda. I thought it would be more than that honestly. We came in on the low end of things. Anyone know what the airport recorded.

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  18. Hetsko! Why would you interrupt BBT with that update? We all know it's snowing, it's been snowing for 24 hours!

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  19. The airport only shows .34 water equivalent.

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  20. I got 4-5ft drifts on side of my house, just dug out my furnace exhaust.

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  21. I understand the importance of emergency updates, but I believe an update on snow just for the heck of it could wait until a commercial or between shows. Please do NOT interrupt future shows when they are new episodes for an update on just the snow!!!

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    1. Weathermen never can win. Thanks for the updates. We're driving up 15 to 390 from (Scott's alma mater?) Penn State. Hope the roads are clear. Only a couple inches here. Sounds like we will have some shoveling to do before we can get in the driveway.

      I thunk the wind and cold mornings the next week or so will be a big deal.

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