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Wednesday, January 1

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT


Written By:  Scott Hetsko
UPDATED FORECAST WITH NEW SNOW MAP

The region is now under a Winter Storm Warning through early Friday as low pressure will track just South of the area over the next 36 hours.  Although the air will be almost TOO cold for good dendritic growth on Thursday night, persistent NE wind off Lake Ontario will pump up snow amounts in the metro area.

A solid 8-12" likely for most in Monroe, Northern Wayne and Orleans counties.  Lighter tallies will be found Southwest but the higher elevations of the Finger Lakes may see up to a foot of snow as well.

BITTER cold air and strong winds will make it feel near or below zero from later Thursday into early Friday morning.  The cold air will limit the effectiveness of salt so roads will likely remain snow covered and slick throughout the period.

76 comments:

  1. Scott 8-12another place 10-15 so we split the difference and say 10-13 a safe bet ha ha. Not a bad storm Snowdog!

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    1. Coming over a 36 hour period. We come from tough stock...we can handle it.

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  2. Surprised how quiet the blog has become. All must still be hung over?

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    1. Nonsense, snowstorms are more important than curing hangovers. Currently tracking this feeling like my head is going to implode.

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    2. Because Scotty said no more arguing and acting like children, so that pretty much covered all the posts

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  3. Latest GFS has us in 10 inch range not sure if that is 10:1 ratios and not sure if that would include lake enhancement?

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    1. Definitely higher than 10:1 ratios. It probably includes a good degree of lake enhancement.

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  4. Its always nice to end up with a storm over performing from what was originally thought, as opposed to hearing 12 inches days ago and then getting 6...any fears we get screwed lime past storms after this one begins? I.e. some type of dryslot etc?

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    1. We'll be too far from the low center to worry about dry slotting. The only way I could see us getting the ol' screw job is if the flakes end up being really tiny due to poor dendritic growth.

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  5. I do not think so farmington because everyone seems to be sure about at least 10-12 and we are pretty close right now.

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  6. Keep hearing chatter about this potential storm Sunday night/Monday? Can anyone who may know anything elaborate on what the chatter is?

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    1. It could be a bigger deal than this one, IF it pans out appropriately.

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  7. For the Sunday/Monday storm the chatter across the NWS offices is that they are now favoring the EURO which is a much stronger low but more west track which could mean a mix to rain back to snow event. Not a pure snowstorm. Things could change.

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    1. It looked to me like most offices are favoring a compromise. Only one that I saw favoring the Euro was NWS Albany.

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  8. I just read buffalo and they say the most likely precip for Sunday/Monday is snow with a possible changeover to rain East of Rochester. How far East, who knows.

    When is it supposed to start snowing tonight????

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  9. Light tonight picks up tomorrow morning a lull then picks up in afternoon tom. night.

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  10. Snowing pretty hard in Gates and has been for awhile. Big flakes. Seems like lake enhancement.

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  11. Time to enjoy this snow! Happy shoveling all!

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  12. The snow is like a fine sand.

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  13. Anyone in northern half of Monroe county seeing larger flakes / lake enhancement? Snow on south side of the city is very fine, accumulating very slowly.

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  14. NE Fairport it's been small flakes for hours, with little more than a dusting over the last few hours.

    Andy

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  15. Worried this is not going to pan out and the majority of precipitation with go south.

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    1. This was always going to be a southern tier jackpot storm.

      Overnight should definitely see an improvement from this grainy frontogenic weaksauce.

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  16. Oh SREF you so silly...I just took a peek at the SREF plume output for Boston, and one of the members has them getting over 50 inches from this storm. Just a teeny bit overdone lol.

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  17. Any model updates about Sun/Mon potential storm?

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    1. Nothing new yet. GFS still weak/east, Euro still strong/west, other models in between. If any shifts occur we won't know until after 11pm.

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  18. Kinda funny to see each day a change in expected snow levels. I bet 2-6 by Thursday eve.

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    1. Forecasted amounts are only changing by an inch or two each cycle, so it's minor adjustments for the most part.

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  19. All the Mets said the steady heavier snow will be tomorrow so have to wait and see how it unfolds tomorrow.

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  20. Scott updated snowfall map 8-14 looks like city and places closer to lake.

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  21. LET IT SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  22. Latest GFS would be a nice storm for us Sun/Mon if it verified. An Apps runner with a pretty strong LP and gradient pressure. Still early interesting to see what EURO says tonight about 1:00am.

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    1. Considering the Euro's performance lately, I believe it will show either a triple phased ultrablizzard or a weak clipper.

      lol

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  23. A few model updates on next week's storm: GFS is slightly west of and slightly stronger than the 18z run, GGEM is east of its12z run, has a 998 mb low tracking near Syracuse.

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  24. That drying trend tried its darndest to make it up to the metro but no dice. Precip is intensifying by the look of the radar, also looks like lake enhancement is beginning to occur in NW Monroe County.

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  25. 2-3 in north gates, drove in from buffalo, more snow from church ville north, I agree with lake enhancement

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  26. 4-6 inches so far up in ontario, NY I think everyone is underestimating the snowfall up here close to the lake. NWS is calling for 1-2 inches tonight... DUH we already have 4 inches

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  27. I don't know how much we have gotten in Hamlin the wind is whipping it around pretty good. I was surprised that the wind is so strong already. It must be gusting to 30MPH. Time to go push it around for a while.

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  28. Western counties all upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings. 3 and a half sparkly new inches on my driveway this AM.

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  29. 4" inches in Gannada with a steady light snow falling.

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  30. Channel 10 is getting reports of 10" in Webster and Hilton. Does anyone on this blog live in those areas. That seems hard to believe. I am not to far from Webster and I only received 4". Also a report of 6" in Penfield.

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  31. Looks like the models are backing down on the strength of the Sunday/Monday storm.

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  32. Solid 6 inches in Brockport this morning.
    Ray

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  33. we have around 8-10 inches so far in Ontario, NY. Still mdt snow coming down.

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  34. Solid 7 inches, NW Penfiled-SW Webster area.

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  35. 10inches seems right here in Hilton. Hard to tell, so much blowing and drifting.... ill be out to snowblow shortly

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  36. 3-4" in Perinton by RT 31 Wegmans

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  37. 11 inches on my deck in North Gates.

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  38. I can say 8 or 9 inches easy in NE Webster.

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  39. Solid 5-6" in Chili

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  40. I'm in Hilton, and my neighborhood is a wind tunnel, so it's extremely hard to tell because of the drifting. I think 5 or 6 is more accurate. That's what I'm seeing on my deck that is pretty protected from the wind.

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  41. Many people go by what they think it looks like instead of actually measuring it. I just question the reports of 10-11 inches. I can say it looks like 7 or 8 inches on my deck but when I actually put a ruler to it it was 5". I also find it interesting that the radar cannot pick up snow in Wayne county, but it is snowing here.

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    1. North Gates measured 11 inches on my deck, anyway to post pics on here?

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  42. Snowdog where in wayne county are you?

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  43. I am in Gananda. West Central Wayne County. Right at the border of Penfield.

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  44. @9AM in NE Fairport - a solid 4" as measured with a tape measure on a large, flat topped plastic storage box that is away from my house. I eyeballed between 3"-4" before I went out and measured.

    Andy

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  45. I just read on Scotts Facebook page of snow reports across the area. It is interesting that several people from the same towns report different amounts. Ex. Irondequoit. one says 4, one says 8 and one says 10. In the city. One says 8-10 yet another says 4-5. It is the same in every town. I question the accuracy of the actual measurements.

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    1. Agreed. Many people don't take the average of multiple measurements as they should. Woke up with an average of 7" in Greece. Already have an additional 3-4" since the first shovel!

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  46. 7 inches in Greece. Measured.

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  47. 1.75" in Geneva

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  48. I would say a good solid 7-8+ inches in North Greece with lots of blowing snow and white out conditions. Not an easy ride into work this morning. So if you are out and about today and especially on the way home -- drive careful.

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  49. Snowdog I am not sure models are backing down on strength of storm Sunday/Monday? I think we still have to watch the models today.

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  50. You are also seeing the difference that the lake influence is making. I also want to point out that the NWS has increased snow totals to the 14-18 inch range for downtown Rochester and points close to the lake.

    http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/gfemaps/StormTotalSnowFcst.png

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    1. Well those on this page who have complained over the past several weeks about missing the big storm and wanting significant snow fall -- I think we go it.

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  51. This is catastrophic.

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  52. The Sunday night/Monday timeframe definitely bears watching. I think Rochester could get a big snowfall from this storm. Seems like the models now have a similar track which will be west of the Apps. and that is a good track for us I believe? Not an expert just my opinion.

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  53. Is the snow ever going to get heavier? It has been light all morning?

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  54. Coming! It will get heavier from 2-8pm

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    1. So the 4-6 inches this afternoon and 3-5 inches tonight will be the heavy snow?

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  55. Snowing pretty moderate for last couple hours in Hilton.

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  56. David what do you think about the potential storm Sunday?

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  57. I havent looked at it much since were in the middle of a nice one right now. I dont think the mets are really focused on it yet either. With that being said, the ingredients are definitely there for a nice storm. As this one pulls away tomorrow, the models should have a closer agreement on it. Could be a good one :-)

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  58. Thanks David please post when you do have a better idea tom. or Saturday.

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  59. Any updates from News 8 team? NWS has been quite... Probably embarrassed after there 2-4 original prediction.

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  60. There's a new blog post!

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