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Monday, February 24

A COLD, WINTRY WEEK AHEAD...


Written by John DiPasquale:

A little lake snow will fly with some diurnal snow showers thanks to the daytime heating & higher sun angle.  Accumulations will be minimal this afternoon, but a little more aggressive up along & north of Rt. 104 tonight, with lesser amounts south & for most.  Temperatures will range from 20 to 25 this afternoon & get down into the low teens tonight.  Tuesday will feature a little more lake snow with a coating to an inch or two for most around & north of the Thruway, but several inches still possible lakeside once again before the lake snow lifts north completely out of the area later in the afternoon. 

Late Tuesday night/early Wednesday Arctic cold front #1 will come through with a burst of snow & a brief period of lake snow expected Wednesday, before it lifts out again in advance of another even more intense shot of Arctic air due to blow through Thursday morning with a burst of snow & probably more aggressive lake snows and blowing snow.  Temperatures will only top out in the low to mid teens Wednesday with wind chills probably in the -15 to 0 range throughout the day, while it will likely be worse late Wednesday night, Thursday into Friday with temperatures likely to be only within a few degrees of 10 & wind chills well below 0 through much of the period!  Would not be surprised to see wind chill advisories &/or warnings issued for at least the Wednesday through Friday morning time frame.  So be prepared for a brutal stretch everyone once again.

 A shot of mainly minor accumulating snows appears to be likely for Saturday with some limited lake snows late Saturday through Saturday night & lingering a bit into Sunday with brisk winds developing again too.  Highs should make the low to mid 20s Saturday, but slip back into the teens to around 20 Sunday.  It MAY get interesting early to mid next week with a storm too.  Stay tuned for updates everyone this week... 

Have a great afternoon & night & stay warm this week!


41 comments:

  1. Wow Scott was not off with the cold he talked about after all last week. I am guessing the winds are going to be pretty strong from Weds-Friday.

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  2. That old "models still show nothing time for spring" excuse is going the way of the dodo around here for awhile.

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  3. CCCC what are you seeing cold wise and storm potential wise for next week?

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  4. The boring continues!!!!!!!!!!

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  5. I'm starting to like the possibility of a decent storm early next week. Right now it looks very similar to some of the other storms we've gotten this season. The cold should be relaxing by then which puts us back in the game for significant snowfalls.

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  6. Very snowy in Hamlin again. A new 4+ inches has fallen since 10PM the NAM high resolution model has nailed it again. 00Z GFS and ECMWF are both showing what could be a prolonged winter storm for WNY early next week. I think C^4 is on to something. Get the shovels ready, 100 + inches for the season here we come.

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  7. For those of us who are getting a little tired of getting up at 4am or earlier to shovel and then put in a 12-15 hour work day to come home to more shoveling are getting a little tired of the snow, and as much as those on this blog love to have it, would really not like to see a significant snow storm.

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    1. Then go to the complaint blog or the blog where they let you order your preferred weather.

      This is a blog to discuss what has and may happen with the weather.

      Delete
  8. Hey CCCC what is your breakdown of the models from over night? Is the possible storm for next week still there?

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  9. The storm is still there and gaining traction. There is now a general agreement amongst the operational models regarding an inland track rather than a coastal one. This makes sense given the establishment of a negative PNA and attendant southeast ridge by that time. The ensemble means are much further south, but I suspect this is due to various members mishandling the polar vortex and suppressing everything too much as a result. We saw the same thing happening with the operationals before they came around to their current idea, hence my suspicion. Mixing is more of a concern in my mind, but I would think that the negative AO during that time period favors more frozen than liquid, and more snow than mix. Interestingly, many model solutions have kind of a dual wave deal similar to March 8-9, 2008. This one may not be as prolific as that one was, but that similarity is worth noting simply for being a point of interest.

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  10. Be interesting what the 12z GFS and EURO show today.

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  11. CCCC update 12z GFS? Looks bad?

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    1. Not as great as the 06z run but still pretty good. Further south this run as well. Just typical waffling at this point.

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  12. This has the look of a long duration snowfall with a lengthy period of over-running precipitation. Still plenty to sort through, but right now this smells like a more moist, less cold version of the early January storm (the first one).

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  13. Lets hope, could use a day off from work.

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  14. CCCC what does that mean more moist less cold version?

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  15. EURO not good for us. This going to be a big city storm again and too far east of us.

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  16. I can smell the naysayers gearing up their naysayings from 10 miles away. I'd like to take the time to vaguely remind such people of what has happened with every single storm this season that has looked like this from a week out. We've seen movies like this already and they always end the same. Could this time be different? Maybe, but I elect to go with the reliable trend of this season.

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  17. Yes the trend has been storms miss us on the coast so I agree.

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    1. Let me lay it out in terms of direct examples:

      -November 26th: initially out to sea, end result was coastal hugger
      -December 14th: initially northern Mid Atlantic hit, end result was Northeast hit
      -January 2nd: initially Mid Atlantic hit, end result was Northeast hit
      -January 6th: initially eastern Apps runner, end result was eastern Great Lakes cutter
      -February 5th: initially Mid Atlantic hit, end result was Northeast hit
      -February 13th: initially out to sea, end result was coastal hugger

      See a pattern here? If you don't then I can't help you.

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  18. Agreed Anon 1:57. This will be no different. South and East. That is the trend.

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    1. Reverse those directions and you've got it champ ;D

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  19. Not liking it CCCC all the models are in real agreement GFS,EURO and Canadian among others. That has not been the case all winter this late out. I think this is more a coastal hit up into NE.

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    1. All of the models were in agreement for November 26th too. That was 5 days out, then they started bringing the storm back. It shifted several hundred miles in just 5 days.
      They were also in agreement for February 5th.
      And February 13th...I think...

      We are still 5 or 6 days out from this one, and frankly it isn't that far from being a good hit here. We still have until Saturday at the absolute earliest for the relevant players to be sampled by the RAOB network. That means we're going to see movement of the general consensus for several more days. And the trend for this season has been for the consensus to move NW over time.

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  20. Okay you have been good CCCC this winter. I am with you!

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  21. For all those who are disagreeing with CCCC are going against logic. I remember not too long ago everyone woke up to an inch or two on the ground and were crying BUST!!!, only to come home from work and unable to pull into the driveway... Let's wait until Friday/Saturday before we start saying south and east as the models have a lot of variables to sort out.

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    1. "I remember not too long ago everyone woke up to an inch or two on the ground and were crying BUST!!!, only to come home from work and unable to pull into the driveway..."

      And guess who was sitting there the night before, covered head to toe in fedoras pony stickers and cheeto dust, posting that this very thing would happen...

      "Let's wait until Friday/Saturday before we start saying south and east as the models have a lot of variables to sort out."

      We do this every single time there's a storm threat. Some people seem to have bafflingly short memory spans...

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  22. Here's something I can't recall ever happening before: the NWS point-and-click forecast for my location has the wording "a chance of snow" every 12 hour period from Saturday through Tuesday. Not "snow showers" like it usually is. Just "snow." Thought that was interesting.

    Regardless of where the storm eventually tracks, it looks like a large zone of over-running snowfall should break out well ahead of the system itself. This might be a comforting idea if you're worried about a more southerly track. The major downside to this is that over-running tends to produce crappy little pansy flakes that take forever to accumulate (see: December 14th 2013).

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  23. I see nothing of importance for us at all. Anything of interest looks to slide to our South and East. I do not think we will get that BIG storm this year. Our time for snow and cold are diminishing. Even KW stated that maybe 2 more weeks of winter before we probably break into more of a spring pattern. I for one am ready for warmer weather. It has been a cold but not a snowy one for most of us. By the lake shore it has been snowy.

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    1. For those of us who live by the lake shore, even with the rain and warmth over the weekend -- still have snow piles of 5 feet or more.

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    2. Come to Avon. We have maybe an inch or so.

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  24. Yep done Snowdog we are out of it and less than 100 inches for the season! As you have noticed no CCCC post because there is agreement that this is SE.

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    1. Anon 7:12AM, if you are going to make such a prediction, then why don't you put your name on it?

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  25. The GFS and GGEM are 300 miles apart. Yep, real strong agreement guys -_-

    That's a suprising thing to hear from KW since he's normally cold biased. It's also surprising because it's most likely wrong. We've been over this already.

    Anyway, there are still numerous good hits among the GFS ensemble members, and the Euro did tick NW last night. Not even thinking about punting this one.

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  26. CCCC you are right we are still very much in the ball game with this one and are driving with a chance to score. This is still 4-5 days out. Interesting to see 12z GFS and EURO runs heck one or both may not even show the storm. That is how it has been going this winter. But CCCC like you said the trend can be our friend. The trend has been NW movement as storm gets closer.

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  27. What about this weekend? KW is yowling about a GENERAL SNOW Saturday night into Sunday. Are we going to get a lot here or just piddly stuff?

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  28. CCCC how did 12zGFS look?

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  29. FROM KW: HE EVEN STATES SOUTH AND EAST.

    Things still looking interesting Sunday into early next week. Pending position of front & upper air trough, decent snows possible, esp S&E.

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    1. http://8fb80e.medialib.glogster.com/media/afbe5ca022f8b09335449fd7aed09e430f4ebe4d50038f0c1380be1ff211d6c9/feel-the-wrath-of-my-caps-lock-button-en-ffffff.jpg

      "Pending position of front & upper air trough..."

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  30. 12z GFS is basically the same as before. Don't expect this to be the final outcome, we still have several days remaining. Otherwise if you enjoy being continuously assaulted by frigid cold air then this run is right up your alley...

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  31. And the Euro heads northbound. Still stuck inside the waffle house.

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