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Sunday, February 9

FLUFFY SNOW BY THE LAKE ON THE WAY


Written By:  Scott Hetsko

A broad WNW flow of increasingly colder air over Lake Ontario will develop bands of lake snows near and along Route 104 from Northern Monroe eastward into Wayne county through early Tuesday.  Some areas here will accumulate over 6" of fluffy, friendly snow over the next 36 hours.  We are closely watching a storm that will ride close to New Jersey later in the week.  Right now it looks that most of that energy will miss us but time will tell.

Have a great week!

47 comments:

  1. Will miss for sure and Scott failed to mention a warming trend will take place after that storm misses us. We will be in the high 30s the week of the 17th if not 40s a few days.

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  2. Because models never shift 4 days out or anything...

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  3. CCCC come on they do but you know not one model is even close to us with significant snow. Plus as you have said that LP over the great lakes is a problem. Going to keep any storm well east. You know this so why are you throwing a carrot out there for anyone. You want to them to stay tuned to your updates?

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    1. I want people to be aware that the situation can easily change. Yeah the Great Lakes low is a problem, but it may not be in 3 or 4 model run cycles. All we really need is an expanded precip shield, which remains solidly on the table as a possibility. Nothing is certain or guaranteed at this point in time.

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    2. Forgot to add, we also need a track slightly west of the non-GFS consensus, but that isn't too much to ask for at this juncture.

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  4. At what point of the model runs will you be punting Monday or Tuesday?

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    1. Whenever, IF ever, it becomes fully apparent that the storm won't pan out for us. As in several consecutive runs with no apparent favorable trend, or not enough of one to justify hanging onto any chance of us being impacted. If it happens as soon as Monday it wouldn't be until the 00z run cycle later that night, which is when the eventual players will be fully sampled. As of now it is still too early since the models have only very recently begun to converge on the idea of any storm at all, and the relevant players haven't been fully sampled yet.

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  5. I ask because right now you have to admit it is 3rd down and 15?

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    1. Something like that. I'd go closer to 3rd and 10. Certain people, however, are clamoring to get the punt team out there too soon. It's always foolish to punt on 3rd down.

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    2. So if it warms up in late February will it be time for spring training analogies?

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    3. Fair enough CCCC! It is tough to get a first down 3rd and 10. Percentages are low but time will tell. Maybe EJ Manuel pulls one out.

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  6. Think latest NAM moved west some CCCC? Maybe offsides D and now only 3rd and 5.

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    1. The NAM at this range is like Doug Legursky on a bad day. It did move a tiny bit west and the precip shield expanded somewhat, but...NAM. Still 3rd and 10.

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  7. You going to wait for the 0z GFS CCCC?

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    1. Yup, and when it tries to club us over the head with yet another out to sea solution I'm going to laugh harder than I did all weekend, and I did a lot of hearty laughing this weekend.

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  8. You this GFS OTS then what about the EURO at 1am where does that go?

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    1. Similar track as previous runs give or take 25-50 miles. I just have zero faith in the GFS right now.

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  9. Perfect winter scene outside my window right now. Puffy lake effect snow falling on a solid snowpack. Doesn't get any better than this!

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  10. GFS was OTS again. We may be heading towards 4th and 10? Better hope the EURO comes more west in a few hours or we may punt.

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  11. CCCC it is over! As I have been saying no chance for this to materialize for us. The disturbance over the great lakes was stronger on 0z GFS the 18z. This is done staying east or going OTS not impossible with that disturbance

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    1. So let's just ignore the fact that the GFS is literally the only model showing an out to sea solution. The surface features on this run still look like doodie but the trough at H5 is less positive than before, which tells me that the GFS will begin to cave within the next few run cycles. Our chances are still alive.

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    2. Just to clarify, the positive tilt to the trough on the GFS is the most direct cause of its out to sea solution, and results from a variety of influences including the Great Lakes system. Every other model has a negatively tilted trough instead thanks to a less progressive northern system, which brings the storm up the coast.

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  12. It is snowing heavy with 5" of new snow already in Hamlin. ECMWF, and GEM still keep Thursdays LP up the coast may still have SOME impact on WNY, we will see, time to plow snow.

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  13. Picked up a fluffy 5" in Gananda. Was not expecting that as they said north of rt 104. Winter is over though. LOL. Still snowing.

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  14. My opinion is that we are out of the storm for Thursday but there looks to be 2 others after that. It seems to me that the models have trended West but not far enough to affect us at all. This looks to be a classis Noreaster for the BIG cities.

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  15. As I have said Snowdog it is over for this week and beyond! Storm way east and will continue that trend no matter what CCCC says.

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    1. A continuation of offshore low tracks eh? Didn't you say we would turn warmer than normal for the remainder of the season? If so, then how can storms continue to track way east? Storms in February never track way east of us in warm patterns. If you're going to troll then at least try to be logically consistent -_-

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  16. A fluffy 4-5" in Greece, and it's still snowing! Love these little snowpack replenishers :)

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  17. A good solid 4" of lake fluff in Faiport overnight.
    Andy

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  18. It's times like this that I curse the fact that I live in Henrietta. Lake effect avoids this place like the plague >:(

    The Euro and the GFS have both moved west since last night. The obnoxious Great Lakes system won't be fully sampled until the 00z runs tonight, so...3rd and 10 still.

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  19. What does the most recent NAM show CCCC?

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  20. I have said many times this system is done for us. NAM as with all other models continues to show the GL system is to close and strong and thus will not allow this to move NW. That piece of strong energy is killing the precipitation field to the LP's west. DONE!

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    1. Why would anyone listen to the predictions of a anonymous user? You have no skin in the game and don't even have the courage to put your name on your predictions.

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    2. Ok will have a name but still does not change the fact that I am right. The latest GFS still way east and not impacting us so you, Snowdog and CCCC can move on and again notice no storms and a warm-up coming.

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  21. CCCC do you have an update on what the 12z GFS showed?

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  22. 12z GFS is still east and does not impact us but I believe did come west some?

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  23. The GFS has begun to catch on with its past 2 runs and has shifted much closer to the coast. Most guidance leaves us high and dry thanks to the Great Lakes system obliterating the NW portion of the precip shield, but there has also been a tick westward with time regarding the coastal. Given how notoriously bad the models can be with unsampled northern stream energy I am remaining on board with the possibility, albeit rather unlikely at this point, of some sort of impact to our area. If the 00z model runs tonight don't hint at a substantial enough change in the northern stream energy, or if they begin to lock in on a track offshore, then I will move on completely.

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  24. Sorry to say it is not looking good for Western, NY with this one. Time to move on and hope for the next one.

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  25. Chris now in PenfieldFebruary 10, 2014 at 11:16 AM

    Any thoughts on the potential warm up next week?

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    1. Near to above normal temps followed by a return to colder weather for the tail end of the month. That's the call I've been seeing in several places.

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    2. Chris now in PenfieldFebruary 10, 2014 at 11:56 AM

      Yeah, I am not seeing anything too dramatic, perhaps mid 30s here and low 30s up north…overall, about 5 F above average. Just wondering if I was missing something.

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  26. Wonder what the News 8 team thinks about a potential storm here. I think not much because Scott did not even mention a storm on his 11pm forecast last night.

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  27. Just so people don't have to wait for me or others to describe what the models are showing, I will post links to access the GFS, Euro, GGEM, UKMET and NAVGEM models, along with the GFS, Euro and GGEM ensemble means and the GFS ensemble members/mean. Brace yourselves because this post is going to be a doozy:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/
    http://meteocentre.com/models/
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/
    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/model-guidance-model-area.php
    http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=ecmwfens&MODELLTYP=2&VAR=prec&HH=3&BASE=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0
    http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/gefsplots/

    The first link provides access to the GFS, NAM and Euro. This is where one can get color coded surface pressure maps and snow maps for the GFS and NAM. The Euro only has options for color coded surface pressure, 500mb heights and 850mb wind speeds. The second link can be used to get to the GGEM (accessible by clicking "GDPS" in the upper left) and the UKMET. Link #3 can bring you to the NAVGEM, whose only value most times is comic relief. The fourth link can be used to get animated loops of the GFS and NAM, along with a bunch of other stuff the other sites don't have. Link #5 gets you the ensemble means for the GFS, GGEM (identified as "CMC" on this site) and the Euro. The final link provides each of the individual GFS ensemble members along with the mean. Most of the models I listed can be accessed through more than one of these sites, with the exception of the NAVGEM, so just pick your favorite site(s) and go from there. Each of these sites presents a lot of different options and parameters, so if you want to keep it simple try to stick with surface pressure maps, precipitation maps and snowfall maps. I would think those options won't take too much digging to find or very much effort to use.

    I'm sure most people here know this already, but for folks who might be new to the whole model business or to this blog I'll lay it down in blunt terms: there is much more that goes into a forecast than model outputs, so don't take what you see in these links as a verbatim forecast. Leave the final call to the professionals. I say this in light of the recent social media hype surrounding The Great Blizzard That Wasn't, which occurred as a direct result of someone posting a model snow map to Facebook that people interpreted as a verbatim forecast. We all know how that fairytale ended...

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  28. Have to see what EURO says both runs today (1:00) and tonight. Plus the 0z GFS at 10:30 to night before I throw the towel in on this current storm potential.

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  29. Here's another neat one...this site provides a simulated radar animation based off of the GGEM:

    http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

    Note that this particular radar simulation occasionally struggles with precipitation types in borderline areas. And this should become apparent rather quickly, but the resolution, and by extension accuracy regarding precip types/intensity, decreases markedly after Hour 48 in the loop.

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