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Thursday, February 6

GRADING THE FORECAST

Written By:  Scott Hetsko

I probably shouldn't do this but I thought I'd reflect on what went right and wrong with the storm that came through yesterday.  I think the storm delivered what I expected although I was a little surprised that the impact wasn't as bad in the morning rush for areas North.  The initial isentropic lift stayed in Pennsylvania where cities like Scranton got 10" of snow by early in the morning.

I was expected the rest of the storm to play out as it did.  The snow amounts forecast were in line with what was observed in the region.  Good thing the primary low tracked where we expected it to or else we might have only seen 3-6".

HERE'S MY ASSESSMENT OF HOW WE DID ON THE STORM:

TIMING:  D or C  (can't decide)
AMOUNTS:  A
OVERALL:  B

11 comments:

  1. Michele in PenfieldFebruary 6, 2014 at 11:09 AM

    Scott, you have an overall A from me regardless. Thanks for posting and keeping this blog on your website. I really appreciate it as I expect all the other regular bloggers do also.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Good job go with C on timing and B+ overall! Keep up the great work. Unfortunately Snowdog looking at the 12z GFS run I am throwing in the towel for Sunday/ Monday storm. It is too bad went from possible historic storm Tuesday to gone yesterday. Oh well we will have to wait but I fear we may since our last storm worth anything.

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  3. Don't listen to the haters Scott, you did a good job with it.

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  4. Scott you are right, there probably isn't a need to "grade" your forecast, but being that some of us weather nuts on this blog naturally hold you to a higher standard, we appreciate the follow-up. I agree that the timing was off, but overall numbers were right on the money, so at the end of the day that is what really matters. Nice job, and thanks for this blog!

    ReplyDelete
  5. Scott,
    Agree with your assessment. Plus give yourself an A for humility.

    I got a little worried yesterday by the radar. (I know BUF was out) but fortunately it filled in nicely for a great middle and finish to the storm.

    A couple of questions if you have time:
    1. Does the underlying code for the models get updated periodically to be adjusted to what actually happened?

    2. Did we get dry slotted twice yesterday? Is dry slot something that can happen with any storm system summer or winter? Does it happen more here in this region than others?

    3. Can you shut off anonymous posting to keep out the copycat trolls that periodically infest the board? I will gladly sign up for an ID if you do.

    Thanks
    Andy

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Michele in PenfieldFebruary 6, 2014 at 12:28 PM

      I agree with Andy, I will also sign up for an ID if we could somehow shut off anonymous posts.

      Delete
  6. I think you guys did a great job with the forecast. No need for grades. When all was said and done, you were right in the ballpark with accumulations. It's too easy to be negative or judge someone when you can get on here an be anonymous. I always sign my name no matter what I say. I think that the anonymous comments need to go. I too would sign up for an account.

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  7. Scott,

    You and the team do a great job. I appreciate how you don't hype things up. No weather forecast is perfect but I think your team is consistently the closest to what actually happens.

    Also I am in agreement with the last two post can the webmaster require folks to create an account to post on the blog? I appreciate all of the serous discussions about the weather, it has been a fun learning experience for me and hate to see it ruined by one person.

    Ray G

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  8. You warned the public of a significant snowstorm, which is all that really matters. As for the morning commute, it's better to prepare people for the worst and have it not happen than to downplay a threat and leave people caught with their thumbs up their...well, you get the picture.

    Still the potential for a nice storm during the middle of next week, although the ensembles for every model are all over the map. The operational GFS brought the southern low closer to a track along the coast than previous runs, although the associated snow swath ended up being quite narrow and confined mostly to the I-95 corridor, with limited accumulations here. Specifics like that aren't really worth considering at this point anyway with so much model spread. I'm not entirely sure what would happen if the southern low phased completely with what looks like a vigorous northern stream system on the GFS, but I can imagine it would result in a much more widespread storm. The Euro also has such a northern stream feature. The GGEM does not. It does, however, have yet another storm following immediately behind which tracks further inland while keeping us cold. This is the only model showing such a thing.

    Fun times...

    ReplyDelete
  9. You're a rationale guy. The whole team is. I find your forecast philosophy and thresh holds consistent, and generally measured but entertaining. You chimed in early on this one with your thoughts, (I forget what day) and let us know. The vast majority of us really appreciated it. A few people try to "hold you to task" for your initial thoughts. But that is ridiculous. Most of us can't hold our ground from one model run to another.

    Thanks for providing this internet space.

    I thought you guys did well. As usual.

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  10. Scott: don't be hard on yourself. You said, snow. We got snow.

    And you don't use a lot of verbal fluff in your forecasts like KW and JN. Just the weather.

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete

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