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Saturday, February 1

Mid-week Still Looking Wintry

Written by: Stacey Pensgen

Let's face it - we don't live in the perfect spot for huge winter storms. Yes, we certainly have had our fair share, but storms don't like to travel up the Appalachians. They either hook west, giving us plenty of moisture, but too warm for all snow. Or, they drift east, keeping us plenty cold, but not with that bulls eye of moisture. We need that good, prolonged deformation zone.

Ok, so this storm mid-week. There is still plenty of time between  now and Wednesday, but I still think it's looking good for a decent snowfall. It looks like it's going to zip past us relatively quickly, so this won't be the "big one" but I think it'll be a good, plowable snow for us. Will we get some mixing in the Finger Lakes? Possibly, which will limit accumulations there. Those are my 2 cents. Scott should be chiming in tomorrow.

38 comments:

  1. Carol Cheryl CristalFebruary 1, 2014 at 6:58 PM

    The only "perfect" spots for huge winter storms in the Lower 48 are interior northern New England and the mountain ranges out West IMHO. Every other place has limiting factors: we have nearby geography, places closer to the coast have Atlantic Ocean modification, the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest have distance from large moisture sources and the Lower Midwest/Southeast/Southern Plains/Southern Mid Atlantic have low latitude.

    I noticed that this graphic seems to show a single consolidated low tracking up along the western Appalachians, yet most models and other forecasts have a coastal transfer. Any reason for the lack of a transfer? Or maybe this graphic is just a rough approximation.

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  2. Stacey, thanks for the update. I think the biggest problem this storm is going pose is its timing. Snowfall totals might not be the highest we have seen this season however, when the snow comes down heavy between 4am and 7am it is always problematic.

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  3. Yes that track looks weird. Maybe it is just a graphic. Have to think the GFS runs 10:30 ton and tomorrow will say a lot. Plus the 1:00 am and 1:00 pm tomorrow.

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  4. This storm is really weak with moisture. A few inches (3-5) at best. All the forum hype for nada glad it has quieted down hope Snowdog is ok?

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  5. I don't see any problems with Stacey's graphic. GFS 12Z shows exactly that, the primary low sliding southeast of WNY to eastern NY before a slight redevelopment at the coast.

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  6. 0GFS looks good for us I believe. Think 8-10 still a good bet by Wednesday night.

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  7. To me it looks like 8+ is still likely. I do not think we will see a BIG one this year. It is very rare to see big storms here like Stacey said.

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  8. The only way we get the humdingers is when the NAO is neg. and we get a LP to bomb and retrograde inland. But I think this is still going to give us a decent snowfall, probably a solid 6-10"+ depending on if a nice deformation zone sets up.

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  9. Carol Cheryl CristalFebruary 2, 2014 at 5:06 AM

    Man alive that NWS discussion is just god awful. Talking about advisory amounts strictly in the southern tier and upper Genesee Valley, which is far below any model output as well as WPC's QPF outlook. The only guess I have is that they're banking on a track much further south, otherwise it seems like a very misguided writeup to me especially given the lack of reasoning for going against the guidance. If that's not enough they also appear to be pretty certain about the storm afterwards being merely a chance at light snow, despite the thing being a week away. Perhaps they'll end up being correct on that, but IMO it is extremely unwise to be so convictive on such things at this range unless the setup looks like a slam dunk, which is FAR from being the case here. I distinctly recall them massively downplaying two other significant synoptic scale events this season, so it would be far from surprising if they end up doing it again here. This is the same office that issued a Winter Storm Warning for a system that delivered less than 2 inches of not-so-wind-driven snow in the end. Don't know what's been going on with them this season but it's disappointing to say the least.

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  10. nws has mention south central ny getting more the action for snow. but on this map we have mix or rain for them. thats the difference. i expect widespread snow. news 10 nbc said in tweet i believe that the weekend storm was still on the table. still true? Praying for Snow to ride the snowmobile, at least one more shot or ride please!!!!!!!!!!!! 80 miles dont cut it.

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    1. Chris now in PenfieldFebruary 2, 2014 at 8:39 AM

      I have 1,500 for the season…gotta go where the snow is!

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  11. nws has not been good thiis year.

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  12. I feel like that discussion was based solely on the 6z GFS model run. Lets just wait for the 12z GFS/Euro ans see what Scott has to say. We are still 72 hours out...

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  13. PP says 6 more weeks of winter. There will be a Blizzard in the Flower City within the next 6 weeks. Mark it down!

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  14. Have to think the 12Z GFS and EURO runs coming at 10:30 and 1:00 will be big when it comes to knowing what is going to happen with this storm. I think Scott will chime in once he sees them.

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  15. The 12z NAM looks great for us, but we all know how reliable that is past 24 hours.

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  16. Can someone explain the "Z" in terms of 12z etc...I know they refer to times but I'm not sure. The NWS discussion mentioned the advisory lasting till 15z and it was supposed to expire at 10am or something. Was trying to figure out how 10am is 15z? I know military time, so 1pm would be 13:00...help!

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    1. "Z" or UTC is just GMT(Greenwich mean time). It is the world clock. It is the 24 hour clock starting in Greenwich England. We are CURRENTLY 5 hours behind. Day light saving moves us to 4 hours behind. 00Z Monday is Sunday 7PM EST. 12Z Monday is Monday 7AM EST.

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    2. Z= "Zulu" time is that which is more commonly know as "GMT" (Greenwich Mean Time) or time at the Zero Meridian. Currently EST is 5 hours behind Zulu time. When we switch to DST it's 4 hours behind

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    3. Thanks I got it now.

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  17. 12Z GFS terrible weak LP and moving SE and will continue to do so each run with strong HP above us. By the time it gets here will be way SE and we will be lucky to get 3 inches. Shafted again with snow someone check on Snowdog!

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  18. Moving way too fast and transfers to coastal quickly. Maybe next weekend but we know that will too turn out NBD.

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  19. I would take less snow with a miss south and east over a west track any day of the week. A 4-6 inch snowfall is better than snow to rain back to snow. It is still early LP track is not set in stone yet it may move back NW or even further SE. WHO KNOWS?

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  20. Is the above Anon right or can someone else please share what they see? People have been saying that the storm it Tuesday night into Weds. not that far and our local mets have no idea what is happening. Great that we have all that modern weather technology. I still see us getting all snow and 8-10 inches by Thursday morning. But I am no expert and maybe Anon 10:56 is correct who knows.

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  21. This is going to be a good snowfall for us, nobody panic. And how awesome would it be if next weekends storm that the models are projecting came true!? 1-2+ feet of snow and wind, a true blizzard for us...

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  22. Maybe the anonymous blizzard poster is on to something LOL. We can all hope. Ill be happy with any snow mid week. It will be better than none at all. Grass is starting to show. Time to make it look like winter again.

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  23. Weatherguy then how come Scott has not posted anything if you say this is going to be a good snowfall for all of us midweek?

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    1. Scott does not talk about storms until the exact track is known.

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  24. Not an expert but after the latest EURO run I still think 8-12 inches a good bet for Rochester. What does Weatherguy,CCC and HP think?

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  25. The latest EURO does not even have a storm for next week ha ha. These models are crazy!

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  26. I have thrown this out twice and am still concerned about an ice storm for some areas in the Rochester area. Am I way off with this? Is there no chance for any of our viewing areas to get prolonged freezing rain?

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  27. This storm still looks to be 8+ in my opinion. I do not see a chance for mixing as the storm will move across PA which is usually a good track for us. It is a quick mover though and that will keep totals down. As for the storm next weekend. I have a bad feeling we will be spectators as the EURO and GFS take the storm to far off the coast with an energy transfer. Eastern NY could get hit hard but not us. Hopefully it will change.

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  28. Winter Storm watches will go up by tomorrow afternoon, The NWS is crazy if they do not. Warning criteria snows are very likely with this one.

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  29. Where is CCC he has not posted his latest thoughts based on latest GFS and EURO.

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  30. Our friend at 10 says still on track for a "hefty snowfall Tuesday night into Wednesday". Also another storm to follow on weekend.

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  31. Yeah, the Euro gives us 8+ like snowdog said, GFS more of a 4-8" depending on where the deformation zone sets up upon coastal transfer. Scott will likely give us the scoop later tonight.

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  32. Hefty for the hype master probably means 3 inches.

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