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Wednesday, February 19

ONE MORE BLAST OF BITTER COLD NEXT WEEK



Written By:  Scott Hetsko

A direct delivery from Siberia will be arriving in the Northern U.S. next Wednesday through the first few days of March.  I've been professionally forecasting weather for 15 years and I honestly have never seen an air mass take a track across the North Pole and then dive DIRECTLY Southward!  This meridonal pattern will result in a return to single digits temperatures by day and well below zero numbers at night.

This airmass will spread frigid air from the Northeast all the way through the Central Great Plain states.  Huge Arctic high will mean snow will be limited to lake effect but that may be quite prolific close to Lake Ontario.

Sorry!!!

43 comments:

  1. Cue mark it down guy.

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  2. Potentially colder than polar vortex #1?

    Any guesses as to the low temerature for the cold event?

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  3. I guess records really are going to be shattered! The record lows are not that impressive for next week, Wed: -2, Thur: -6, Fri: -4, Sat: -6. It would be pretty cool to have a stretch like we did back in '79 where we set record lows four straight days in February.

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  4. Consecutive subzero lows in March would be pretty neat, but the prospect of yet another stretch of biting cold wind is starting to irritate me, even if it does include prolific lake snow. Even as a winter lover I have a limit, and this right here is that limit. Hopefully the stinging pain of more frigid wind in my face will be eased by a big storm to close out the season. Historically speaking, when March is very cold it also tends to be quite snowy, so that's a plus if you enjoy snow.

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    1. Snow in early March is expected and another big storm would be fun. I need it to hit my December prediction of 110"+ for the season. But snow outside the norms loses its appeal quickly as the month of March progresses. Snow in late March is like kissing your sister. Snow in April is.... worst yet, and snow in May is ... well I don't even want to go there.

      Andy

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  5. Wow you usually do not get Scott this far out that definite about something. But he sounds like this is going to be brutal cold. Question for Scott or CCCC will there be wind with the cold because usually when you get below zero temps there is little to no wind because it is clear out?

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  6. So today I find out that the polar vortex is coming to freeze-burn my extremities once again, then the Orange go down in a heap against the worst team in the ACC. This just isn't my day :(

    Since this is polar vortex induced cold there will probably be a good deal of wind to go along with it.

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  7. I mean, I don't welcome the brutal cold, but if it's going to be that bad, we might as well set some records. And as far as the snowfall derby goes, whoever was working at the Rochester Airport this year had a serious bet going against us because we all know we should easily be around 90" right now. Still confident we will hit the century mark by mid-March though...

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  8. Scott said highs single digits and lows at night well below zero? What kind of numbers are we talking? Because the alarmist at the other channel has not said much about this.

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  9. CCCC with that Siberian cold coming straight down from north to south would not the winds be favorable for large LES in areas not of thruway including the metro?

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    1. If the winds were due north we wouldn't receive very much owing to a short fetch. We don't appear to be in line for a northerly wind anyway, more northwesterly than anything. Lake effect around here is incredibly fickle so I won't speculate on how much anyone might get.

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    2. CCCC north westerly winds generally favor what areas again?

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    3. Plus what temps are we talking for lows possibly when Scott says well below zero?

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    4. I think 0 to -5 will be the norm for most of us. NW winds generally favor areas north of the Thruway, but the exact mean direction is still up in the air at this point.

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    5. Ok thanks CCCC so not really that brutal when Scott said well below zero I was think -10 to -15.

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    6. One more thing CCCC are you going to be up to look at the next GFS run in a half hour and see what it shows for temps and possible storms 7-10 days out?

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    7. Post your thoughts please?

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    8. I really doubt I'll be able to say anything beyond "just another solution," but if something particularly interesting crops up I'll definitely mention it.

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  10. Weatherguy your feedback is also appreciated too.

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  11. I just want to finish ahead of Binghamton. Seems like almost every year they're constantly nipping at our heels and receiving small increments of snow seemingly out of nowhere. I think their official recording station being 700 feet higher than the city on a hilltop 15 miles away has something to do with it. I've held a strong disdain for that location being chosen because no one lives that high up and hardly anyone lives in the surrounding area. The snowfall they get is not representative of the Greater Binghamton area for these reasons. It's like if we had our official station along the lake in Webster, or if Buffalo had theirs in East Aurora.

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    1. I agree with this statement 100%. I used to live in Binghamton and inevitably it would be raining in the valley, but snowing on the hill at the airport, thus inflating their snow totals.

      Being born and raised in Rochester, there's no comparison - we have much more inclement weather here in the Roc city.

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  12. I agree with CCCC on not speculating LES right now, but with that amount of cold air coming across the big lake, snow:liquid ratios are going to be huge and some places will get pummeled. Don't be surprised if a storm sneaks up either, models are trying to get something going along the negative tilted trough late next week...

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    1. I'm not entirely sold on huge ratios for the lake effect. Numerous times I've seen air this cold result in a sub-optimal snow growth zone, and the result is tiny pixie dust weaksauce flakes. Air of polar origin tends to be pretty dry as well, so there's that to worry about. We'll see what transpires.

      I do agree that there could be a sneaky storm at some point next week.

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  13. With temps maybe O to -5 I am thinking like maybe the PV1, this will have strong winds and that is what Scott is saying will make the WCs brutal. PVs 2 and 3 did not have much wind with them.

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  14. There will be a Blizzard in the Flower City within the next 3 weeks. Mark it down!

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  15. Models have increased the amount of rainfall for tomorrow's storm. Average of about 1 inch for the whole event.

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    1. What was the cold readings or possible storms?

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    2. A little less cold, a little more stormy. Worth less than a hill of beans right now.

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  16. Scott was low key about potential cold late next week. He barely mentioned quick mention at end. Did not seem to concerned just more amazed that it is coming through north pole and straight down south.

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  17. Snowdog MIA snow pack going and all storms appearing on models way east of us. Not a good time for Snowdog cold with no snow useless.

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  18. Agreed. With cold air coming from the arctic the storm track should be to far South and East and lake effect should be minimal due to the dry air. I am still sticking to my guns and saying less than 100" for this year. Right now we are at what we were for the whole season last year. I say we finish in the 90- 95 inch range this year. I just do not see any storms of interest for us right now. Just boring cold air. With an inch of rain coming we will lose much of the current snow we have. I was hoping for a winter like the late 1950's where we had 3 consecutive years of 150" plus snows. Not going to even come close to those numbers. With such a cold winter this year our snow totals are very very disappointing.

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    1. Boy Snowdog, you really live your life as a glass half empty kind of guy. Regardless of the "official" numbers it's been a very snowy winter. Snow is piled higher along roads and driveways than its been in years. The snowpack for most of this month is impressive. The ski resorts in upstate NY have a ton of snow and Bristol will likely break or come close to record number of days open.

      I'm sticking to my guns and saying we will exceed 100" and my target is 110" at KROC for the official measurement. There are already snow belt areas well in excess of 100". It's been a very snowy winter--- they type we haven't seen in years.

      Andy

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    2. I do think Snowdog is right in terms of snowfall for rest of winter. With the placement of that strong PV and the general pattern most of the big snows will be along the coast and central/eastern Pa. Do not think places in interior NY will get much snow the rest of the winter.

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    3. There were never 3 winters in a row over 150" in the 50s. In fact only one winter from 1950- 1960 went over 150 " that was 59- 60 (161.7).
      From 1950- 1957 it was very unsnowy with all winters < 80".

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  19. Cold will not be that bad though so maybe we can get a storm to move NW. The models have back off the cold temperatures too.

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  20. The pattern is wide open for a storm to eventually track along the coast or inland once the cold starts to pull away. This kind of cold rarely leaves without a bang, especially in our part of the country. I'd be rather surprised if we didn't get one more substantial snowfall this season.

    The Euro has been hinting at a huge storm hitting the East in about 9-10 days for three consecutive runs. Other models...not so much. The Euro has an excellent track record regarding how it handles southern stream systems, so it should be given more weighting even at this time range. Sadly it also keeps the system largely suppressed and we stay cold and dry, but let's not forget how it tracked our most recent substantial storm through the Gulf states at one point. The massive high responsible for said suppression could easily trend weaker...in fact I would almost expect it to.

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    1. CCC,
      What is your thoughts on all this rain and wind we are supposed to be getting starting tonight? Do you believe it will cause any severe flooding or damage?

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    2. I can't see the wind being too much of an issue, but the rain could cause flooding problems. Doesn't look like a severe impact at the moment, although some embedded strong thunderstorms are very possible which could exacerbate things for some folks. The simulated radar of the 12z NAM depicts such a thing.

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    3. Thanks! For some reason, when you give your opinion, I personally feel you are right on the money!

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  21. I've noticed an interesting month-to-month pattern that has presented itself since December: the first half of the month tends to be exciting and snowy, while the latter half tends to be dull and less snowy. The stats don't lie...

    December: 1st half 14.8 inches, one significant storm. 2nd half 7.7 inches, zero significant storms.
    January: 1st half 12.7 inches, one significant storm. 2nd half 8.1 inches, zero significant storms, zero snowfalls greater than 2 inches.
    February: 1st half 18.6 inches, one significant storm. 2nd half (so far) 3.2 inches, zero significant storms, near zero chance of getting anywhere close to 1st half totals.

    Will March continue the trend? Climatology and pattern both argue yes. We'll see what happens.

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    1. Thats why I'm being stubborn and sticking with my 110" seasonal prediction.
      We just gotta hope it happens in March and not April or May.

      Andy

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