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Wednesday, March 5

A HINT OF SPRING TO END THE WEEK!?

Written by John DiPasquale:

After a little more snow this afternoon with highs in the low 20s, it will be another bitter night tonight, as a strong area of high pressure builds in out of Canada.  Lows will be not too far from record territory late tonight/early Thursday between about 0 & 5, & the record low is -3 set back in 1948 here in Rochester.

High pressure will provide us with tons of sun for Thursday & that March sun will go to work on the cold air mass & help us recover into the mid to perhaps upper 20s during the afternoon with light winds, so it should feel pretty good tomorrow afternoon, relatively speaking.  High pressure will shift to the east of us late Thursday & especially Thursday night into Friday & that will lead to much milder readings to end the week with highs expected to make the 40s Friday afternoon with a southerly breeze & some more sun!  Enjoy!

Cold front on the map above will scoot through Saturday with a little snow possibly mixed with rain & behind it temperatures will plunge back into the 20s for highs come Sunday with some lake snows around.

A fast moving clipper will try to clip us with a shot of snow late Sunday night into Monday & then another one may affect us Tuesday, before yet another shot of Arctic air may invade mid to late next week!  We'll see...Stay tuned.     

Have a great day bloggers!

56 comments:

  1. Nothing about a possible storm mid week next Wednesday in fact the opposite. Another shot of arctic air may invade mid to late next week. In fact that is the opposite of what CCCC is saying. Because if we get another invasion of arctic air then we know no storm because it will push any potential storm was south and east. So take that CCCC and smoke it in your pipe. Again the Snowdog is right less than 100 inches for the season a record the 3rd year in a row with less than a 100!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "Nothing about a possible storm mid week next Wednesday in fact the opposite."
      I am of the opinion that John didn't give us the whole story. "No mention of" is not the same as "no chance of." And the GFS is the only existing indicator of a mere clipper passage.

      "Another shot of arctic air may invade mid to late next week. In fact that is the opposite of what CCCC is saying."
      When did I say we wouldn't get another arctic shot? I actually remember saying once that we would. You're making things up to be provocative.

      "Because if we get another invasion of arctic air then we know no storm because it will push any potential storm was [sic] south and east."
      Except we kind of need arctic air to get a snowstorm in March in the first place. So there's that...

      "So take that CCCC and smoke it in your pipe."
      More provocative gallivanting. Take this petulant nonsense back to the schoolyard where it belongs.

      Delete
    2. what do you feel your gaining by posting and thinking like this? perhaps you need to take a break on your pipe instead. hiding behind a "Name" must be so easy to take cheap shots at people. I hope you live your life a little better offline.

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    3. CCCC - 1
      Name = 0

      I'm keeping score for fun...

      Delete
    4. Let's not make this into a competition. I'd prefer to discuss the weather rather than play silly childish troll games. Trolls are perennial losers anyway, there's no need to keep score.

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    5. ok fair enough

      Delete
  2. would you like a cookie? you sound so proud. Only time will tell if you are correct or not. As i said yesterday i would much rather read CCCC's posts about "potential outcomes" than read your garbage of a post. CCCC all the way.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Name,
    Everyone else can have a civil discussion and difference of opinions on this blog, what is your problem? Grow up.
    Ray

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ray,

      I assure you I am all for open discussion and difference of opinions. I was simply growing annoyed with "Name's" battering every post about how CCCC is wrong and Dog is right. I may have gotten away from myself briefly, but i assure you i am on the same page as you do not wish to partake in those tactics.

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  4. "Name" is a troll, plain and simple. He will not "grow up" or change his tone, he is here to provoke and nothing more. Let's all agree to keep our responses to his provocative claptrap to a minimum. The same goes for all other prodding by anonymous provocateurs. I will no longer reply to such individuals, it's just a waste of time and energy.

    Still a lot of spread amongst the GFS ensemble members, but many of them show a storm. Better depiction than yesterday for sure.

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  5. Westsider here, should have posted it was me when I got tangled with CCCC over KW and global warming. My apology CCCC.
    I do have to say, that discussing the issue wIth CCCC, she was very professional about it. Much respect to you CCCC. Can't say that the provocative words today towards CCCC are cool.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm a "he," first of all. My blog name is a reference to a TV show. Second, there's really no need to apologize, I took no offense to anything that was said. It was actually refreshing to have a disagreement that was actually mature and civilized for once. Kind of regret teeing off on KW like I did though lol.

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    2. I knew you were a guy, and yet I wrote she. I'm telling you I must have very few live brain cells left from living through the 60's. Sorry

      Delete
  6. The Euro has very similar placement to the GGEM, but is stronger and 12 hours slower. 983mb over West Virginia to 984mb along the Maine coastline. Miller B type nor'easter. Again, exact strength and placement are unimportant details right now. The only refinements I am administering to my thinking are that the GFS is probably not handling the setup properly and that the odds of a storm impacting Rochester next week are better than minimal.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Ha ha wow I generate a lot of replies. I must be right! BTW the EURO absolutely crushes WNY!!! Ha ha you know what that means? No storm for us for sure! If you are in the bullseye a week out forget it. Ask the good old people of PA. about this past weekends storm. Sorry, I get people angry but you people can't handle the truth.

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  8. There will be a Blizzard in the Flower City within the next 9 days. Mark it down!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So are you predicting a blizzard for the St. Patrick's Day Parade?

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    2. It will keep all the drunks from causing problems.

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  9. NWS Buffalo is starting to sniff the truffle:

    "THE MOST INTERESTING FEATURE WITHIN THE GUIDANCE PACKAGES WILL BE A POSSIBLE STORM THAT WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE SPLIT FLOW. AS NOTED IN AN EARLIER SECTION...SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE NOT COMMON IN A NEAR ZONAL FLOW...BUT WITH A FORECAST AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET...THE POTENTIAL FOR A LATE SEASON STORM WILL INCREASE. SUCH A STORM IS JUST OUTSIDE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...SO STAY TUNED."

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  10. Sorry blog I am just trying to have a little fun on the blog. I did not mean to insult CCCC.In fact I would love a monster storm and CCCC your updates on model runs is awesome. I posted as Name just to be funny because someone said why don't you use a name so I will go back to Anon. and be nice. I hope we get a monster storm next week. So CCCC please let us know what the models show the few days. You do a great job to help all and you are funny too.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Meh, you don't have to go back to being Anon. Unfortunately your "fun" very closely matches the profile of trolling, I guess because conveying sarcasm over the internet is like explaining color to a blind person. Just tone it back a little and you'll be fine. And thanks for the kind words :)

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  11. Canadian GEM back on board. 18z GFS still struggling and has the storm way later on during the week...

    ReplyDelete
  12. 18z GFS took a big step towards the foreign models, but I suspect it is still trying to catch on. The more I read into this threat the more I'm beginning to like it. A very knowledgeable member of AmericanWx, who goes by "Typhoon Tip," posted about it earlier, and he said basically that the various teleconnectors strongly favor a big storm, one that he referred to as "a whopper." He did not go into details regarding who is favored most. Keep in mind that this is only one perspective on the matter, although he carries the "meteorologist" banner on that particular forum.

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  13. Weatherguy I thought the 18z GFS did show a storm starting to come up the coast? My confusion is on this weather site the 7 day says rain and on 10s website they have 34 degrees for next Wednesday? Maybe CCCC can help with both this and what he thinks the 18z GFS showed.

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    Replies
    1. It does show a storm coming up the coast, but it develops much later and much further SE than the foreign models. I think Ch 8 is siding more with the GFS, which is a bit baffling as it has next to no support aside from its own ensembles, and even then it's not even close to unanimous. It has also been highly erratic while the foreign models have been far more consistent.

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  14. I am confused Scott just said 40 with showers next Wednesday on his forecast?

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    Replies
    1. Either he's playing the low-key game or he's joining Team GFS. This calls into question what else he might be seeing. Consider me confused as well.

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  15. Not good Scott is not on board. He is RMA for 5th straight year.

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  16. I'm not worried about Scott not being on board at this point. I realize I've mentioned this ad nauseum, and if Scott reads it (possibly for the umpteenth time) he may get a little grumpy at ol' Carol, but he pretty much guaranteed that the day before Thanksgiving would be dry. We all remember what happened. "Most Accurate" does not imply "Always Accurate," although he definitely deserves the title of "Most Accurate."

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  17. Don't worry Scott sees it, he's just going to play it smart and wait until he sees consistency and I can't say as I blame him for doing so. He's a professional and has always waited until 3-5 days out before really discussing it. But as CCCC has said, pretty much every model is beginning to pick up on a significant storm ejecting out of the SW and heading towards the NE. And at this point in time, climo favors a more inland track.

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  18. I think Scott feels this will go well inland and go west of us thus warm side and rain.

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    Replies
    1. That outcome is actually among the least likely, and has not been on the table as a legitimate possibility so far. Cold high to the north does not favor a track to our west. If the jet streams remained separate, however, the cold air would not be pulled down and we would get a weak clipper with mix/rain instead. A phased system would pull more cold air down, and with a Canadian high in the way it would not be able to cut to our west.

      Delete
  19. Great again CCCC thanks. He must feel jet streams remain separate and a weak clipper because he said mix showers.

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  20. Now the 7 day forecast on this site says 37 and rain it was 40? Really wish Scott would just give us his thoughts at this time.

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  21. "Rochester's Most Accurate" may not be on board with a storm (yet), but we have a different heavyweight forecaster in our corner (as far as reasonable general outlooks go). I guess you could call him "Buffalo's Most Accurate." From Don Paul:

    "Probabilities DO favor fairly major cyclogenesis in the east by Wed night-Thur night. Beyond that generality, uncertainty abounds on track."

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  22. Just saw John's 5 a.m. forecast. Has revised the late end of the 7 day forecast. Now says a high of just 23.

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    1. Sal I saw that too this morning. John had 23 and another arctic blast fro next Wednesday and after. Scott last night had 40 with showery mix for next Wednesday. They are not in agreement in their own office.This is very confusing?

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  23. We got 4 inches of snow yesterday morning and it is NEGATIVE 9 this morning in Hamlin. It has been a VERY long, VERY cold and VERY snowy winter in Hamlin, keep it coming. I would like to see it quit in April, please no snow after march is over.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You are the exception to a snowy winter like we have said many times.

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    2. It's been a snowy winter-- we are above average for the season. Just not up to your unrealistic expectations.

      Delete
  24. -8 at the airport! Impressive. I believe that is the record cold this late in the season.

    http://classic.wunderground.com/history/airport/KROC/2015/3/6/MonthlyHistory.html#calendar

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  25. CCCC any updates on the over night model runs?

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  26. Not an expert at model reading but believe the EURO went SE as is GFS.

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    Replies
    1. Yikes Snowdog you are up? Waiting for this storm will go southeast like the rest of them and we will be watchers again?

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  27. As most of the storms have done this year. This should be no surprise to anyone. South and East, that is the trend.

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  28. Where is CCCC must have been an awesome night last night.

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    Replies
    1. If by "awesome" you mean "incredibly stressful" then yes, it was.

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  29. Bernie knows what he's talking about, and he's usually pretty accurate:

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/looking-ahead-storm-threat-late-next-week/655578741001

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    Replies
    1. Why aren't our local weather professionals talking about the potential of the storm ahead. Especially leaving up to the St. Patrick's Day Parade on 3/15. For those organizations who have events planned for the later part of next week, planning is important.

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  30. i'm assuming there are too many unknowns at this point and thats why they r holding off on alerting the public. We are a week away or so. I have not been able to track this storm but only have been able to read the posts on here. how is the potential for a storm here in our region looking for next week?

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  31. Always awesome to see an all-time monthly record broken. John referred to it as a "likely once in a lifetime" occurrence. Neat.

    All sorts of waffling with our storm in the models. While the Euro moved towards yesterday's GFS, the GFS moved towards yesterday's Euro. Meanwhile the GGEM went from a strong northern stream system last night to a hybrid eastern Lakes cutter/Miller B nor'easter this afternoon. Overall consistency has actually diminished over the past few days, and there is still a great deal of spread in the various ensembles. So what can we conclude from all of this? That it is still too early to be calling this a hit or a miss. One small (at this point) red flag regarding the Euro is that its ensemble mean is a good deal NW of the operational, with many consolidated amplified members.

    I will say one thing with near certainty: yesterday's 12z Euro was on a whole new level of absurdity. I would post how much snow it depicted for us, but that might render half of this blog unconscious and give the other half a minor stroke.

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    Replies
    1. Please do! Or at least post what website your'e using to access it so that those of us healthy and emotionally stable enough can see it if we so dare...

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    2. Alright if you really want to see...those with weak constitutions/weak hearts are strongly advised to avoid accessing the following links:

      http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=230910
      http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=230908

      Add them together because it's all the same storm, then tack on 6 more inches because the color coding in the 2nd map isn't sufficient to depict the total. I was fortunate enough to see someone post this from a paysite so unless no one minds paying a monthly subscription to see a single map then it isn't worth posting. Enjoy your heart attack.

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    3. Then again, the name of the site is right there on the graphics. I had different intentions when I typed that second to last sentence. Lazy editing on my part.

      Delete

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