Written By: Scott Hetsko
Of course with the internet and ease of access to weather data and modeling, most of you know and see more now than ever. That can be a double edged sword because just looking at output from model data is not forecasting. How many bloggers actually look at anything other than surface precipitation forecasts? What about model bias? But the most important intangible is experience. In January we had computer models spitting out 12-20" snow totals 36 hours before a storm only to end up with a more modest 6-10" total. I must use history as part of my forecasting pie.
The system will have a favorable track for us but the models we are all looking at won't be reliable until that storm gets over the Rockies. Once I see tomorrow mornings data will I be more confident in posting more specific numbers. I try to have my team keep to a 24 hour window in posting specific snow numbers. Until then I feel it's irresponsible to issue a snow forecast and then have to dial back or enhance the numbers. Above I did post where it's most likely that heavier snow will fall so stay tuned!!!