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Wednesday, March 12

QUICK AFTERNOON UPDATE

Busy tracking the now cast but we feel good about the next few hours producing moderate to heavy snow from the city and areas West and South.  4-7" in this area possible through 6 p.m.  Blizzard conditions will continue and likely get worse as snow deepens and temperatures fall.


143 comments:

  1. What about Wayne County? Will we see an increase in the amount of snow. Because right now, its snowing but this is nothing major, except maybe the disappointment.

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  2. Yeah I agree. Not impressed so far. Maybe 3-4 inches so far. It is light snow right now. I think we will definitely be on the low end of this at this point

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  3. The back edge already looks to be in Erie, Pa. It is moving too fast.

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    1. We can only hope. Supersonic isn't fast enough to get this disgusting mess out of here.

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  4. 4-7 through 6:00 pm and that is it. Gran totals of 8 inches in most areas and some with 6 inches. What a joke lucky winds were right on because that helps only be a gigantic bust instead of super gigantic.

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  5. In Sodus right now, we may have 4 or 5 inches. Its a bit hard to measure with the drifting. So, We may hit 10 if we are lucky

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  6. Part of the lack of snow I believe is because temperature did not drop as much as was forecasted. It was suppose to be 10 degrees colder by now.

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  7. Lightning & Thunder reported outside of Buffalo

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  8. I'm sorry, but I'm not seeing a big deal with this storm. I'm in Greece by Latta Rd. It's blowing around, but not a lot of snow. I've seen worse, I can see schools closing, but businesses and malls? Not impressed at all. Unless the storm hasn't hit yet?? Can someone explain? Am I missing something??
    Lou

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  9. Those are saying NBD have clearly not been on the roads... I live one minute from the airport, at least 6" right now and unless you have AWD, you can't go more than 25 mph, with most side streets untouched by plows.

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    1. 6". THEY SAID WE WOULD GET CLOSE TO 20". WE ARE NOT EVEN CLOSE.

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  10. Isn't the lake effect suppose to ramp up through the afternoon & evening, as the winds continue to shift?

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    1. No lake effect to worry about the winds to strong shearing and lake some what frozen.

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  11. No Lou you are accurate schools should have closed but rest is ridiculous and storm has another few hours at best. So it hit and is almost done.

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    1. WRONG! Nice trolling.... LOL!

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    2. So this is it? We are in a blizzard?? Wow! My husbands work closed early, which never happens. He said it was a typical snowy drive home, but he really wasn't delayed that much. I remember back in the 70's having a blizzard! Everything was at a complete halt. I guess I keep waiting for the snow!!
      Lou

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    3. Do not wait too long because it will be next winter.

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  12. Disappointing CCCC has posted very little during this Blizzard thought he would be more involved in now casting.

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  13. As predicted the mets have drastically dropped the numbers more like 8 total.

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  14. Another BS storm.

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  15. NBD!!!!!!! Where are all you wannabe "experts" who claimed 20"+??????? Where you all at? Out shoveling your 3-4 inches of snow? NBD!!!!

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    1. Realy tell that to those who live in Greece who have 20+ inches of now.

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  16. It's has been disappointing to me to be honest. I expected temps to be colder with more fluffy snow at this point. We expected 10-15 for most with up to 18" near the lake. Looks like the lower end of those numbers at this point.

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    1. You weren't alone with that thinking among your peers. Every outlet, local and national, were mostly on the same page.. Stuff happens.

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  17. WoW what a major major dissapointment. Mets were all wrong on this one. Looks to be over very soon! NBD for this one..

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    1. The troll is back again. The real Snowdog did not post this.

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    2. Both of you lie! I am the real snowdog! Enough already

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    3. All troll posts above. Don't believe any of them! Please quit picking on me.

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  18. Oh well. It was exiting to talk about anyway but this will not be historic in any way shape or form. Just an average little snowstorm with wind.

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    1. How was the wind in your dutch oven?? Did it smell?

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  19. I've been purposely avoiding the blog today because I wanted to go out and enjoy the storm instead of sitting here watching people freak out about dry slots and radar trends. The airport is probably up around 6 inches by now based on surrounding observations, and we should see another 3-5 there through 6pm with the radar filling in to our west. That would put us at 9-11 with another 3-6 or so on the way afterwards from lake enhancement/lake effect. Do the math, that's a total of 12-17 inches which is consistent with just about every forecast. One thing to consider with blizzards is that snow depths will tend to be dramatically lower than actual accumulations suggest because a lot of it ends up in drifts. I got over 20 inches from the Buffalo lake effect blizzard in January, yet the snow depth only averaged about 10 inches. With this storm there is currently one lonely 3 foot drift sitting in between two nearby buildings with grass exposed all around it.

    You people sitting here obsessing over radar and dry slots and crying "bust" are missing out on some pretty amazing scenery, especially when the wind kicks in with heavier rates. I stopped caring about final totals when the row of cars 20 feet from my window disappeared in a shroud of white. Loosen up and enjoy what Mother Nature is giving you today, and stop worrying about numbers so much. That will be all from me for awhile.

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    1. Actually nvm about the 12-17 thing, just saw Scott's post. Still don't care about final totals. I never expect fluff in a blizzard anyway, strong winds tend to shred those fluffy dendrites to bits.

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    2. Well said. I'm done reading this blog unless it comes from News 8, you or HP.

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    3. Way to cover you never expect fluff in a blizzard anyway after the fact sorry all the alarmist are eating crow with this one and thank you winter is finally over!

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    4. I never said we'd see multiple feet of fluff now did I? And I tossed my 12-17 aside because I didn't want to seem like I was trying to override Scott's post. My opinion is still that most of us will surpass a foot.

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  20. I already see the sun popping out. We are dry slotted once again. I think I'll take the dog out for a walk. This is a joke. ;-)

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  21. Do meteorologists ever win? Seems like they need some pretty thick skin.

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  22. It is amazing! RC on 10 this morning now this is 6:00am so three hours from storm starting showed his computer model animating total snow fall. It showed over 19 inches in Rochester and 21 inches in Canandaigua. We are going to be lucky to get 6-8 and this was 3 hours before the storm! Explain that to me? ALL models showed at least 14 -16 inches for Rochester right until this morning and we get 6-8. Explain this to me? I could understand if we were 2 days out heck or even a day. These were 4 3 hours away.

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    1. Strong winds and efficient accumulations don't mix.

      Okay now I'm done.

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    2. That is cool CCCC but would not the expert weather people know that before predicting the heavy snow fall totals? They said winds were going to be strong?

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    3. Sometimes there can be more dendrite shredding than anyone expects. I'm not sure there's really any way to tell.

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    4. No B, you can't have it both ways. Was it not you who predicted this blizzard for weeks? Give the man some thunder snow like they're having in Bflo and he'll be happy!

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    5. Funny Dr.Bob Hartley wonder why you have that name? Oh forget it I know ha ha. No happy with storm it was the grand finale now lets bring on spring so we can track birds and run 3k races.

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  23. I was out in the for a bit and I wouldn't say NBD. When the wind kicks up you can't see much of anything and there are decent sized drifts all over. But of course no matter what happens people will be disappointed. Such is life.

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    1. I agree.. we will see if it is NBD when I drive my 17 miles to work in a few hours.

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  24. Actually since I still feel like some people are teetering over the ledge, I must report a bit more of a fluff factor developing with the snow at my location. Also this:

    http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/gfemaps/StormTotalSnow.shtml

    And a spotter in Irondequoit is reporting 10 inches.

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    1. No way 10". I must be measuring in a drift.

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  25. Just returned back from plowing, let me tell you, there is ZERO visibility out there! May only be 5-6 inches but you cannot see period. Please stay off the roads if you don't need to be out. With nobody on the roads I am able to go 55mph+ with my plow down on the ground and grunt. Also don't be fooled. The back side of this storm will fill in alot more than it has. It is NOT over so quit the complaining! Please stay safe!

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  26. I don't know, we're getting pretty heavy snow and lots of wind in Honeoye Falls right now.

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  27. 24 hours ago I was walking my dog in a light coat with no hat or gloves.. today I'm looking out my window at heavy snow and strong winds.. at times it is hard to see the tree 25 yards from my house. That is amazing enough for me.

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  28. HP sorry even Scott has posted down numbers and his disappointment with the storm.

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  29. Looks like the radar is breaking up nicely back to the west. Should be able to pull out my telescope tonight and star gaze. ;-)

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    1. I hope you enjoy staring up at thick overcast :P

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    2. ahhahahah....I just had to throw in some phony negativity CCCC!! ;-)

      Doug

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  30. The dry slot to our west is starting to fill back in, and the deformation zone over Ohio is intensifying.

    I hope my barrage of posts can bring people back to their senses a little bit. This is still an awesome storm even if large totals aren't realized, but it's abundantly clear that we're not even close to done with it yet.

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  31. BS...I'm opening the pool after dinner!

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  32. That was not the real HP. He is still at work. He wont be out of his plow truck for a long time. Good try.

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    1. Can't be HP no highway dept would allow plowing at 55 extremely dangerous. NYS DOT reccomends 35 max spend even slower in these conditions.

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    2. a long time? the storm is about over and everyone got 3-5 inches! He shouldn't even be plowing! NBD

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    3. When you drive a plow truck for a town you are not typically done until a few hours after the snow stops and could still be out when the sun is shining especially if the wind is blowing it around.

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  33. Never underestimate the potency of deformation banding coupled with lake enhancement. I've seen numerous storms pushed above and beyond the scope of most forecasts by overperforming deformation fluff. This looks like an increasingly impressive deformation zone as well, and I would imagine winds aren't as strong there.

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  34. Snowing very heavily in Fairport right now. The combination of snow and wind right now has made the visibility near zero. It does not look like bust to me. Plus it looks like the radar is filling in.

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  35. I must be a good luck charm or something ;P

    Poor Mike Seidel is getting absolutely pwnt right now.

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  36. Snowing the hardest it has all day right now in Webster.

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  37. Everyone relax and take a chill pill. The system is indeed filling back in as CCCC mentioned, so all hope is not lost! I think were in for a surprise this evening as this storm is not nearly over with. In fact if it stops snowing in the next 2 hours I will gladly jump in snowdogs dutch oven!! thats how sure I am!!

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  38. Just think, we could be in Binghamton instead where it is currently raining and the temperature is increasing. They were only expecting advisory amounts and may get hardly anything at all.

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  39. Heavy Snow with very high winds in Ontario, NY.... Cannot see the road in front of the car.

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    1. Interesting that one of your earlier posts was, "no big deal". But it was a big deal driving home in white out conditions.

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  40. From NWS discussion:
    AS OF 18Z...REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE CENTER OF THE
    INTENSIFYING WINTER STORM NEAR PITTSBURGH. AREA RADARS SHOW THAT THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTIVE SNOWS HAVE LARGELY PASSED OFF TO OUR EAST AS OF THIS WRITING...WITH A SECOND AND STRONGER AREA OF DEFORMATION BAND/WRAPAROUND SNOW NOW WORKING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS LATTER AREA WILL BE A HEAVIER AND LONGER-LASTING ROUND OF SNOW THAT WILL ALSO TREND FLUFFIER OVER TIME AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THE ATMOSPHERE SLOWLY COOLS...LEADING TO BLIZZARD TO NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AS IT IS BLOWN AND DRIFTED BY STRONG NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. SUCH CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED AT THE BUFFALO AIRPORT...WHERE VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO AS LOW AS ONE SIXTEENTH OF A MILE.

    IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL ACCUMS...EXPECT A GENERAL 3-6" OF ADDITIONAL
    ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE AREA THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
    ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TO FOLLOW THIS EVENING.

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    1. How come Scott or KW has not said anything about significant accumulations this evening?

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  41. Keep an eye on that heavy band over southern Ontario as it pivots east.

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  42. Approaching 8 inches as measured in an area near my building that is shielded from the wind. Pretty consistent depths there.

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  43. Just saw that channel 13 on their 12:20 update increased their totals to 16 to 20 inches by tomorrow morning with a good chunk tonight what is up over there?

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  44. Incredible...Scott talks about lowering his forecast totals mere hours after the Channel 13 crew raises theirs. We'll see who wins that battle...

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  45. Plus did you see the NWS post above CCCC about heavy snow tonight?

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  46. Plus we still may get some thundersnow which would give us some quick accumulations in a short time.

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    1. Charles when would there be thundersnow?

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    2. While the deformation band pulls across the area there is the potential that there could be thundersnow

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  47. I saw the NWS post and I can easily see why they went that route. That heavy band to our west looks exactly like the type of bands that routinely crush coastal areas with big snowfall amounts in strong nor'easters. Some people refer to them as "death bands" because they can deliver very high snowfall rates of multiple inches per hour. This one should slide steadily eastward rather than pivoting over one area for too long, and won't have excessive rates associated with it, but I wouldn't be surprised if the highest snowfall rates of the entire storm came from that band.

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    1. I should add that "death band" is a melodramatic slang term used informally on weather forums. These things can't actually kill anybody :P

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  48. I do not see the heavy snow accumulations coming tonight on the radar? Plus one group I am not going with is News 13. I go with RMA.

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    1. Seriously? Look towards the western end of Lake Ontario:

      http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=buf&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

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  49. 13 is saying 9 to 16 inches tonite?

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    1. And 16-24 in total. Amazing how much that diverges from Scott's earlier thoughts.

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  50. Channel 13 said on that post another 9-16 tonight are they serious? So bad.

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    1. Funny we posted that at the same time Anon. I think they are crazy remember same group who said Sunday storm would bring 3 to 4 inches.

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  51. Anyone know if this will count as a blizzard.

    Do gusts above 35 count? Or is it sustained over 35? For 3 hours. Visibility is reported at .1 miles. Winds just below 35, but gusts decidedly over.

    http://classic.wunderground.com/history/airport/KROC/2014/3/12/DailyHistory.html

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    1. Sustained or frequent gusts, whichever one actually occurs. Looks like we officially met the "sustained" criteria:

      http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KROC.html

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    2. Scott posted on Facebook earlier itwas a blizzard

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  52. I'm going to guess another 6-10 for most. Not an expert for those who need reminding, so don't take my informal guess to heart.

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  53. I literally live a mile from KROC and there is no way we have only received 5". More like 7 or 8". Still believe everyone ends with 10-15".

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  54. I'm starting to think Scott may have jumped the gun a bit when he said he's leaning towards lower totals. Seems like it took only a few hours longer than expected to transition to fluffier snow, and now more than one expert source is forecasting additional significant amounts on top of already significant amounts. Apologies to Scott if this post offends you at all, not trying to criticize your judgement.

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    1. Webster already has 9.5 , with these significant accums. coming tonight 18" shouldn't be a problem at all!

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  55. Time for more adventuring. I hope I've managed to talk some people away from the ledge over the past few hours.

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  56. Scott just posted on FB just several more inches far cry from 9-16 ha ha

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    1. We are already up from 6-12 inches so far which means that several more inches would put us at 9-16 inches. Just because you can see some grass does not mean we dont have a ton of snow a lot of it is piling up against things with these winds.

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  57. Not done yet...still tough travel out there tonight and with colder temperatures finally coming in I expect snow to get fluffier.

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  58. I still like our number we posted last night when all is said and done. Don't worry, I'll be sure to compare them tomorrow.

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    1. Tough to measure....one side of my deck is bare....the other has a 3ft drift
      Doug in Greece.

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  59. 3,000 people just lost power up in Webster

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  60. Seems safe to say that any disappointment with this event centers around snowfall predictions. ('Ya think?) Had blizzard conditions not materialized at all I guess I'd be disappointed, too, perhaps so much as to think in terms of "bust" or "NBD." As it is, it's definitely *nasty* outside regardless of whether we receive 8" or 20" inches of snow. Yes, I get the "but it would be *so* much worse" (better?) "had we gotten the inches forecast. They blew it!" In my mind, I don't care. I'm just glad I'm able to be inside where it's safe and warm while watching Mother Nature do her thing outside my window. Enough. Apologies for the rant. (Keep up the good work, Scott. Thanks.)
    ~Joe, in Penfield near the Webster border where the snow is falling and the wind is roaring.

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  61. Average of a few spots in my backyard is about 7" in Greece. So much blowing, I have bare spots as well as drifts of about 2'.

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  62. nearly 400 people lost power in Sodus

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  63. The winds are strong and Scott said the LP is now in eastern Pa. I would think still in a great spot it has to go through and then the wrap around winds could kick in LES especially sine Scott said the winds will slow down but still be 15-25mph. He said the stronger winds keep LES down bc of the speed over the lake.

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  64. KW another 4-8 through late tonight just a little different than that 9-16 from GJ.

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  65. Snowing steady in Gates. The wind seems to be blowing directly from the north.

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  66. I cant believe anybody thinks this is a bust. north chili has 10-12". flakes are much bigger and its snow probably 2"/hr now.

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  67. Ha ha GJ just said snow totals some with 24 inches with a question mark. How can he be so far off base as compared to the other 2 mets?

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    1. He must be putting a lot more stock into higher rates from the impending deform band. It looks extremely impressive at the moment.

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    2. KW just said the heavier snow is coming in from 6-8 that must be that band you are talking about CCCC?

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    3. Also just said snow basically done by 9:00 tonight.

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    4. On Twitter he said that it would be between 9 and 10pm, and that MOST of the accumulating snow would be over. I could see another few inches of lake fluff during the early overnight, simply because it always seems to happen with these storms.

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    5. CCCC answer me this storm just moving threw central to eastern Pa. When it goes through and gets past us would not the winds wrap around the lake and give us a good shot at LES?

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    6. Yeah, but the shorter fetch would limit its intensity.

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  68. Flake size has increased markedly in the past 10 minutes here. Probably some of the lowest non-gust visibilities of the entire storm so far. On my adventures around the largely abandoned RIT campus today I've seen ridiculous drifting, complete whiteouts, cross country skiers and even a guy on a snowboard being dragged by a truck. Pooh on the naysayers, they don't know what they're talking about when they call this an "average storm with some wind." It's been quite remarkable I'd say, and it's nowhere close to finished.

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    1. I'm enjoying it and have the most impressive snow drifts I have ever seen at my house in 12 years.
      Ray

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  69. It looks like a hole in the radar right now over Rochester but it is still snowing like crazy

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    1. We're approaching the point where it's too cold for the KBUF radar to show accurate reflectivities this far east.

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  70. Official totals so far: 8.2 inches at KROC, 9.4 inches at KBUF.

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  71. Please someone call GJ he still has 7-12 tonight with areas finishing with 20 to 22 inches totals. How can he be so far away from the legendary KW and RMA? CCCC you may want to let him know the others are saying 4-8 tops and stopping around 9 while he still has snow until 4am. Come on CCCC help out he already never even mentioned the storm until Monday night.

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    1. I'm just a regular guy, I can't just call a TV meteorologist and demand that he change his forecast.

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  72. If anyone can do it you can but perhaps GJ is on to heavy lake enhancement coming who knows. The LP is in C. Pa and is 982mbs that is STRONG!

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  73. That deform band looks like it's going to take about 4 hours to work completely through, and rates should average 1-2 inches per hour during that time the way I see it. That would yield an additional 4-8 inches, and I think a few inches of lake fluff in behind will boost that to 6-10. Totals would be 14-18 inches, which is precisely what the Blizzard Warning text indicates.

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    1. That is only if the deformation band does NOT get any lake enhancement we could be talking about snow rates of 2-3 inches an hour which would be 8-12 inches which is why I think some people are calling for slightly higher totals. This is not likely but it is possible.

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    2. I can definitely see embedded 3 inch per hour rates in there with the lake getting involved. I'm not sure they'd be anything but intermittent though.

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  74. Henrietta. About 8 on one side 4 on the other sise of the driveway. Taking a five min break. I've been shoveling for an hour and I'm only half way through my 2 x 3 car driveway.

    The snow is very heavy and that wet/icy bottom half inch is like glue. It's not just heavy. I have to whack the shovel to get the snow off.

    I hope whatever else comes is fluffy.

    I'm too cheap to get a snow blower. Usually it's fine. But this is brutal.

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    1. A plow came through just before noon and left a two foot wall at the bottom of the driveway. Glad I decided to attack/clear it (it's also garbage day here; how's that for timing?) as it was formidable then..
      ~ Joe, in Penfield near the Webster border where the flakes are a bit "fatter" now as the wind continues to whip...

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  75. I would like to see some yellows show up on radar as this band comes through with some thunder.

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  76. Drive from Avon to Greece was kinda crappy.. serious drifting in spots and bare road in others. Lucky the wind direction was the way it was or visibility would have been worse.

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  77. Notice the lingering radar returns down around Cleveland. That is an indicator of what we can expect once the main deform zone rolls through, but perhaps not as intense.

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  78. Now I am not a weather expert. I do love a good storm as much as the next guy. My question is what are you guys talking about when you speak of deformation bands? And Charles what are the yellows on the radar that your looking for?

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    1. Yellows would indicate around 3 inch snow rates

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    2. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/lmk/pdf/deformation_zones.pdf

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  79. I would've thought Snowdog would make at least a few posts since early afternoon, but not a peep from him. I wonder if he jumped off a bridge or something...

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    1. I have been farting under the covers all day and I refuse to come out! #dutchoven

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    2. We all know you are the Troll Snowdog; as the Real Snowdog would not respond with such a post.

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  80. Ha ha CCCC where is Snowdog? When are these bands coming through with heavy snow not happening in Pittsford yet?

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  81. Starting to pick up again in Ontario, NY

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    1. Nasty stuff right now in Ontario - I must say it's a blizzard out there.

      Charles - how much snow do you think we've had season to date in Ontario?

      Be safe folks

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  82. It's a blizzard in Chili, it'll be in your Pittsford within the next 20 minutes!

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  83. There's a new post!

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