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Friday, March 28

Updated Weekend Snowfall

Written by: Stacey Pensgen

It's the last weekend of March but that doesn't mean anything to Mother Nature, or our weather here in WNY. As John eluded to this morning, we would need to watch this storm closely during the day today and even into tonight. I talked to Scott, and we feel that enough cold air will be forced in from Canada to change the rain/mix over to all snow overnight Saturday. Some rain mixing in, and plain old rain closer to the NY/PA border will keep snowfall accumulations down well to our south, and the highest elevations south of Rochester will see the most snow. It's still a very tricky forecast, and we expect this to be a heavy, wet snow (good for making snowballs!), which could possibly take out some tree limbs and power lines. IF colder air works in and the fluff factor is a bit higher, so will the snowfall amounts. Or IF the warm air makes it further north and through the column of air, there will be more mixing, cutting down on accumulations. That being said, we feel "ok" with this forecast...for now. Updates may be needed tomorrow morning as we see how this storm is taking shape.

107 comments:

  1. Does anyone have the snow potential for the area today?

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  2. Oz GFS had us in 6-8 inches for all of WNY. The 6Z had 4-6 inches. This storm looks pretty strong on the current radar in Indiana heading to Ohio. Hope we get an update from News 8 today.

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  3. Scott had a Facebook post about an hour ago using same map as Stacey

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  4. Yes NBD a few inches for city

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  5. Technically 3-6 is "several" not "a few." In any event, that much concrete-type snow could be problematic in terms of scattered power outages as Stacey alluded to especially if the wind kicks up at all. Gusts look like they could get near 30mph for several hours during the storm per NWS. This system looks very moist on radar so the amount of cold air working in will be very important.

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  6. I'm very surprised the NWS is being so conservative this close to the event...

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  7. You right CCCC radar does look like a lot of moisture key will be how fast the temps drop.

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  8. Was at Wegman's and heard folks talking about 6-12+ inches expected overnight. With the wind and snow expected; surprised there is no Winter Storm Warning for Monroe County, and mainly to the South and East. Folks need to prepare for this,especially if you have plans for Sunday. Difficult travel expected. Winter is still holding on, and perhaps we will get more snow into April. Looking to break that 110-115" snow mark. YEA!!!!

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  9. Come on, witht the way the weather professionals have been this season in their predictions of snow fall -- we all know 4-6" means 10" inches of snow. For those of us who LOVE Winter -- this year GREAT!!!! Counting down the hours. Maybe we will get this Winter Storm following by the Historica Ice Storm -- now that will give us something to talk about.

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  10. Come on Anons you are being irresponsible posting this stuff. Nothing suggests 6-12plus for Rochester area. Please do not go by folks at Wegmans and it is going to get warmer next week and this imo will be it.

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    1. All the local mets gather and swap stories at Wegmans. I think some of these folks are desparate to tell their imaginary girlfriends about how they survived our long Winter.

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    2. Look at Westsider 12:20pm posted. Don't make such a snap judgement or are you now calling out the Weather Channel.

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    3. Yep. Now calling out TWC, and those who get their weather updates from Wegman's customers. I see nothing wrong with that.

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    4. So when you woke up Sunday morning and saw how much snow had fallen -- did you take a moment to think about your post above, and rethink that perhaps, maybe you were wrong to slam someone else's post. Just wondering.

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  11. Warm temps on hard surfaces will melt the first of the snow that falls. High 30's for tomorrow will melt snow that stuck to hard surfaces overnight. Relax.

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    1. Really? Snow still here on Monday morning. Guess you were wrong.

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  12. Changing over faster to snow than expected in certain places in Ohio. This could be the higher end of snow fall totals predicted for all of Rochester.

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  13. Interesting that the Weather Channel is calling for 6-10 for Rochester tonight. Just saw this an hour ago.

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    1. But not even an advisory from NWS?

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  14. Well have to go with our local Mets and none of them have that 2-4 for most or 3-6. That is what all have said. In fact 13 updated this morning on web and said 2-4 inches.

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  15. These late season systems can be such a struggle to forecast, with the stronger sun (although this won't play TOO much of a role due to the night-time onset of most of the precip), plus the relatively warmer ground will play a little bit of a role, at least at the start. Plus the temp profile is so painfully marginal, we MUST have that cold air filtering in. That being said, with the 12Z data coming in still looks like we should get a decent slug of moisture once the cold(er) air makes it in, plus some wraparound Sunday morning. Regardless, it'll be gone by Monday and Tuesday with milder temps and stronger APRIL sunshine!

    More updates coming this afternoon, obviously!

    Stacey

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  16. One thing for sure it on radar the precipitation shield is moving at a snails pace. Very slow moving storm.

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    1. Kind of frustrating that it took this long to finally get a storm that didn't zip across the country like it was running late for something.

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    2. Does this mean if the storm is moving at a slow pace, it will be with us for an extended period of time?

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  17. So all things considered, we should be looking at totals in the neighborhood of 1-10 inches. Clearly a sign of lockstep certainty in the situation :P

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    1. Hey CCCC, it's 1-12+". Gotta get all the numbers right. Plus, a historic ice storm. Can't forget that either.

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    2. If we get a historic ice storm during April I'll address Snowdog as Lord Shibe for the next year.

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    3. Would not joke about the Historic Ice Storm as the person was correct in predicting the Blizzard on March 12th -- just remember that fact. Would not laugh if I were you.

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    4. That was a lucky guess and nothing more, as much as I would love to believe it was some kind of voodoo wizardry.

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    5. Ice storms aren't anything to joke about, but Mr. Mark It Down started calling for blizzards in mid-January at the latest. So, yeah, he's got his seer finger on the pulse of our local weather.

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  18. I predict 4-5 inches of cement will fall from the sky. I have no justification beyond spring.

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  19. Amazing that there are birds chirping away outside just hours before the onset of a sloppy snowfall. Welcome to spring...I think.

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  20. There will a HIS in the Flower City with in the next two weeks. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  21. Weather Channel calling for 6-10+ inches of snow for Rochester area. When are the Winter Storm Watch/Warnings going to do up Monroe County. For those who have plans for Sunday -- need to start thinking about them. Heavy, wet snow, with icing, and wind. As the one blogger keeps predicting "HIS will hit the Flower City in....."; he/she hasn't been wrong yet -- remember their prediction about the Blizzard we got on March 12th.

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  22. Prepare to do some major shoveling Sunday into Monday. Winter is her to stay for the time being. Remember what happens after we get 50 degree plus weather; usually followed by a Winter Storm. Be prepared; hopefully folks have contacted their Snow Plowers to make sure their contacts will be in place for April. Would not count out another major storm.

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    1. Not sure but you must be shoveling s%$# Sunday into Monday since snow is tonight and a lot will melt with sun tomorrow

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    2. Did you check out what the temperatures will be on Sunday -- really not that warm. We still have snow from the Blizzard, and we have had warm and cold days since then.

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    3. Abib 1:13pm -- no how much crap did you shovel on Sunday.

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    4. Anon 1:13 -- how much of crap did you shovel on Sunday. Hmmmm, it is Monday and the snow is still here. Explain why it did not melt like you said it would in your 1:13 posting.

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  23. The fact that this precipitation is coming at night will make the change over to snow quicker and more likely. Think it is going to be at least 4 inches of heavy wet snow for all.

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  24. Serously when are the Winter Storm Warning going up for Monroe County so folks can begin to prepare for the Storm.

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    1. No one prepares because of a warning. Drive by wegmans any time there is a storm the lot is full all day.

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    2. I thought the Wegmans lot was full every Saturday. You know, because it's Wegmans.

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  25. Do not see one update from10. No tweet from KW or JN so must not be anything to worry about. They have been on things all winter and KW hinted this could be nasty the other day but has said nothing today. He must feel NBD now.

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    1. Don't assume that KW or anyone else has changed their tune based solely on them not tweeting anything. KW has the day off and JN is probably immersed in his work, hence no updates. If either of them change their thoughts they'll let us know instead of leaving it up to assumption.

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  26. CCCC have not heard you make a real prediction with this? You usually are right out there with your thoughts. Find it weird that this is right on our door step yet no one wants to state what they think other than updates to follow stay tuned. I am saying it at least 5 for all and up to 10 for a lot. This is slow moving and does not lack moisture. This could cause problems with tree limbs and power lines bc of heavy snow.

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  27. In fact some short term models have us getting blasted! It is snow hard in some areas in Ohio right now.

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  28. This is such a marginal setup that it's more worth my while to simply sit back and watch the trends. I must say though, the NWS forecast is starting to look way underdone for lower elevations.

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  29. Okay, I have a thought regarding the snowfall amounts on the mesoscale models:

    https://0-media-cdn.foolz.us/ffuuka/board/vp/image/1365/43/1365433409980.jpg

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  30. Very disappointed in your ambiguity. Where are the usual bloggers like Snowdog, Hamlin, David, Weatherguy, Andy, Farmington, Sal and a few others. Disappointing they are not participating in winters last gasp.

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    1. I'm here...just catching up on the blog for today. It is somewhat exciting to get a little more snow but I also am looking forward to warmer temps next week. My instinct says it will be slow to accumulate, by my gut says we will get enough for it to be a pain in the a$$. If nothing else it is something to follow today since there is no basketball till tomorrow afternoon!

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  31. Come on CCCC can not get to that site please just say what you think.

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  32. Okay like how much way too much and how valid. I have trip tomorrow to Pa. need some information.

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    1. One of them shows 12-18 inches. Take 1/4 of that for something more reasonable. So 3-5 inches. The snow should be in the process of melting by later tomorrow morning.

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  33. I do not understand the NWS. The storm is supposed to start tonight and they still only have watches up. Are they that uncertain? I would say at leas WWA for north of the Thruway should be posted.

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  34. Some of the models show Freezing rain instead of snow??? Am I reading that wrong?

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  35. Oh ok 3-5 NBD so thanks for clarifying.

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  36. This would be a huge deal if it was January with amounts of liquid it is dumping in Ohio and the snails pace it is moving.

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  37. WWA up right for Rochester?

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  38. Idk but guess I am missing something because radar is impressive and it appears to be going NE right towards WNY but must be wrong. if right we better hope for rain not snow or freezing rain or that HIS that to all knowing other Anon could be right.

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  39. On the website for 10 they have rain changing to snow over night with snow heavy at times and 4-6 inches. I think this is going to be get bigger as we go and warnings will come just my opinion.

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  40. Temp profiles won't be supportive of worrisome ice accretion.

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  41. So winter storm watch cancelled and replaced with advisory yet nws is calling for snow over night and then freezing drizzle all day tomorrow. Expires Monday morning. This seems like a long duration event. I feel like its anything goes at this point. No one can say for sure until its on top of us.

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  42. Then CCCC what do temp profiles support because there seems to be a lot of QPF with this storm that has fallen is Ohio and as you said some mesoscale models do have us in the sweet range albeit way overdone. I still see if this changes to snow early a 6-10 inch snowfall for all.

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    1. Snow and rain with some sleet rather than a widespread zone of freezing rain.

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    2. Exactly what I was just thinking. 34.1 and dropping at my house.

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  43. The current airport temp is about 3 degrees lower than what the NWS grid forecast said it would be at this point. Worth noting in this marginal setup.

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  44. Majority will be rain so it will be fine.

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  45. CCCC you should not knock because you have not taken the risk to make a prediction. Hope you do not say you told us after the fact.

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    1. I'm only knocking the notion of this being mostly rain, which no forecast or model indicates, and some local observations already include wintry precipitation with the sun still up. After all I've seen today I'm only willing to say that everywhere other than the immediate lakeshore should see at least a few inches. Events like this are very fickle.

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    2. 33 deg with sleet mixing in here in Henrietta an hour before sunset.

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  46. Dewpoint 29 degrees does that mean temperature heading down?

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  47. Ice pellets hitting windows and now I think I see wet snow possibly mixing in as I type this. It also appears the rain that fell has started freezing to tree limbs and my deck is iced over

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  48. I am going to say this again and maybe it will miss us south. But has anyone looked at the radar and seen the amount of moisture on there a huge wall? It better be all rain.

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  49. JN said 4 inches in Rochester metro so NBD just a nuisance.

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  50. Snowing here in Greece...only about 2 miles from Lake Ontario
    Doug

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  51. I feel like the Mets at 6 said change over would be later after sunset. Its snowing now. What does that mean Cccc? Is this a quick pocket of cold air only to be replaced with more rain later, or are we going to stay snow?

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  52. Sleet/Freezing rain here in Chili...

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  53. Anyone else looking out the window in the daylight of 7PM, practically April watching the precip change from rain to ice/sleet to snow then looking at the thermometer drop then looking at the radar then looking at the blog then looking out the window again.

    I love weather.

    Of course I'd be happier if it were sunny and 65.

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  54. CCCC, I think perhaps your being too bold with your predictions of mainly rain. Thermal profiles, radar, obs, models have all been concrete with a majority of this falling as snow... I'm just glad we don't need to be too concerned about ice with this one!

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    1. Disregard that last post as a.) I can barely read the blog on my phone when i'm at work and misunderstood CCCC b.) now getting a little worried about freezing rain c.) it's getting really windy

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  55. Of course soon as I posted it stopped snowing and changed to rain again.

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  56. Any news 8 updates?

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  57. Think it was suppose to change around midnight and snow hard over night? Radar still looks like a lot of precipitation on the way?

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  58. Just came in from plowing. We will be back at it at 3 am. It has been ALL SNOW in Hamlin from the start. We have a solid 3 inches and still coming down moderately. I would say a solid 6+ inches looks VERY LIKELY in Hamlin for this late season storm. I hope this is the last snowfall, I have had enough for one season.

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    1. Don't wish for that. For use Snow Lovers, we are hoping for more snow in April. Besides don't you want to make a few extra dollars.

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  59. 3" in Chili and that snow is super heavy! Got stuck going up my driveway... Drive safe everyone

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  60. And this really is Winter Storm Warning criteria. Idk what the NWS is doing...

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  61. For all you who said majority rain. Wrong. It has been all snow. The roads are very dangerous and it is snowing at least 1-2 per hour right now in Gananda with the radar lit up 6+ easily. Should have been a WSW. The NWS blew it.

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  62. Again think I said look at the radar way back. There was a lot of moisture and 6-10 a good bet and that is what JN had on his channel 10 forecast tonight. CCCC really quiet on this one he fizzled out at the end of winter.

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    1. Maybe he was with his dutch over.

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  63. Joke how bad NWS blew this situation.

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  64. Just drove home at midnight. Conditions about as bad as it gets. My December prediction of 110" for the season is a slam dunk.

    Andy

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  65. Sadly News 8 will be wrong on the projected totals yet again.....

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  66. I have to snow KW has ben right on with the last 2 storms and the other channels not so good.

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    1. Lets try that again.. LOL

      I have to say that KW has been right on with the last 2 storms and the other channels not so good.

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    2. News 8 was good on the blizzard. Under played this one for sure as did nws.

      Andy

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  67. I'm a little frustrated with the NWS and News 8... No updates after all models and radar were indicating a much bigger storm than predicted earlier. As a result, there's 8-10" of snow in my driveway and the roads have not been touched by plows due to this being downplayed so much...

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  68. Definitely a bust in our favor if u like snow. Doesn't happen very often. I'm not going to point fingers it is what it is. Will be gone by Wednesday. For now its one more day for kids to play in snow. At least 6 inches in farmington.

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  69. Hopefully this was winters last hurrah. Hopefully old man winter doesn't pursue the high end of my target of 120".

    Andy

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  70. Have to admit that when you look at the postings form earlier in the day on Saturday, many of the comments s to excpecting 8-10 or 6-10 inches of snow were slammed by many of the bloggers. Mentioned hearing this a Wegman's Saturday morning, and as one blogger put it, it was probably someone wanting to impress his girlfriend with knowledge of the weather. Also one posted that I would be shoveling my own crap on Sunday. Have to say, wondered what he/she thought of Sunday morning when they saw the amount of heavy snow which had fallen overnight, and with snow plows did the best they could to keep up. Now did they shovel their own, and had a girlfriend do it for them. Have to agreed News 8 Team really missed this one; wonder if Scott will have a posting asking folks to rate him and his weather team on this one?

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