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Friday, November 7

A Blast of Cold Air Headed for Western New York

Sure we've had some chilly weather recently but all in all, the fall weather pattern across western New York has been relatively tranquil so far with no major storm systems and relatively mild temperatures.

Old Man Winter will return in full force over the next week as the large scale weather pattern undergoes some big changes across the country. The jet stream will take a big dip to the south and allow an early season blast of bitterly cold air to plunge into the Lower 48.


High temperatures next week will struggle to climb into the single digits and teens across the northern plains along with bitterly cold wind chills.

For us in western New York, we'll be on the eastern fringe of the coldest air but our temperatures will also drop significantly by the second half of next week.

The various forecast models and data that we use to help make the forecast all point toward this change to wintry weather.

Here's what the GFS (Global Forecast System) model is showing by Thursday of next week:

Notice most of the Northeast struggling to climb above freezing during the afternoon.

The airmass arriving next week will be much colder but also relatively dry and because of that, only scattered Lake Effect snow showers can be expected.

We're still several days out from this change in the weather so plenty can change between now and then. Keep checking back with us for more updates.

Written By: Matt Jones

94 comments:

  1. "High temperatures next week will struggle to climb into the single digits and teens across the northern plains along with bitterly cold wind chills."

    Wait...what? Is this real?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I know.. temps that low anywhere is the US this early seems remarkable to me.

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    2. They are absolutely remarkable, like something you would see in mid January.

      Delete
  2. Thanks Matt. Too bad. Not much snow with all this cold air. Such a waste of cold air.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You're starting already!?

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  3. Polar Votex heading our way.

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  4. I'm not concerned about "wasting" a cold air mass in mid November, we have more than enough winter remaining to cash in.

    The "remnant" low of Typhoon Nuri bombed out to 924 mb early this morning, the lowest air pressure ever recorded in the US in a non tropical system. The Bering Sea Rule leads me to anticipate a major warmup late in the month followed by a high wind event. The BSR is a relatively new forecasting tool so this will be a nice test for it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Correction: lowest pressure ever recorded in the North Pacific, not the US. Also that warmup/wind event prediction is directly related to what the storm does in the Bering Sea, hence "Bering Sea" Rule.

      Delete
  5. CCCC, I'm interested to see how the BSR plays out in this instance. However, I believe the MJO and the NAO will play a significant role in the next 2-3 weeks as far as shaping the remnants of Nuri and thus the overall pattern downstream, especially this time of year.

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  6. The MJO isn't expected to become all that active in the foreseeable future, and the NAO should remain near neutral for the next few weeks. This is a -AO/-EPO driven pattern. Nuri's remnant low is going to pump a ridge over the Gulf of Alaska (-EPO) which will dislodge the polar vortex and send it south, reflected as a -AO. Since the remnant low is so powerful the ridge it pumps will be absolutely massive, which is why the cold anomalies projected for next week are so pronounced. If the MJO has any impact this winter it won't be until late month at the earliest. The NAO should eventually drop to negative as long as the North Atlantic cold pool remains steady state, but my guess is that it won't happen until we get closer to December.

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  7. Hello please talk English CCCC and Weatherguy. People are not weather smart like you guys so please keep that in mind. Please put things in normal human beings terms.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Those are normal human being terms. But here's a summary: cyclone on steroids shoves the jet stream towards the north pole, the jet stream moves the semi-omnipresent polar vortex into northeastern North America, the flow of air around the vortex pulls arctic air down to the Lower 48, we spend the second half of next week in a semi-icebox.

      Delete
    2. Chris now in PenfieldNovember 8, 2014 at 8:08 PM

      I like both descriptions.

      Delete
    3. So. What temperature is the ice box. And how ... humid? Like highs in the 30s? Sub 32? What's the over under on the high temperature late next week? What is the probability of enough snow to coat a windshield.

      All very premature speculation. What is your gut feeling.

      Delete
    4. Cold and probably some snow. That's the best I can do right now. Highs in the mid to upper 30s, maybe lower next week.

      Delete
  8. NWS Amarillo sums it up nicely:

    "SUPER FRIGID TERRIFYING POLAR EXPRESS STORM VORTEX SNOWPOCALYPSE STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR NEXT WEEK.”

    lol

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  9. Looks like nice sized snowstorm will hit the upper Midwest while we stay on the warm side of things. Hopefully we will get some lake effect snow but the winds look to be west initially. We will see. I would like to see some snow with this cold air. Looks like maybe the following week might get even colder????

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  10. CCCC, blocking in the North Atlantic is forecast to set up sooner rather than latter. However,that pacific ridge is quite impressive and looks to lock in for a bit, keeping us cold. Plus, it appears as though a barrage of storms are set to pound the Pac NW for the next week and a half, so once the cold eases, I'm curious to see what the southern jet brews/phases...possibly validating the BSR!?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I usually never recommend eyeing the extreme fantasy range GFS for any useful purpose, but the very end of its range is right around the time we would expect Nuri's BSR reflection to appear in the CONUS. If a storm appears consistently then we're already a good deal of the way to seeing the BSR pass its first major test.

      Delete
  11. Chris now in PenfieldNovember 9, 2014 at 4:45 PM

    BSR = Bering Sea Rule.

    ReplyDelete
  12. There will at least 1 blizzard in The Flower City within the next 4 months. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

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  13. My modem crapped out over the weekend and I'm waiting on a new one to come in, so don't expect to see me around here too much for a little while. Browsing the internet on my laptop in the middle of Barnes and Noble is a tad awkward.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Polar vortex heading out way. Wonder what the wind chills will be like. What is the coldest wind chills to occur in November.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The PV is staying far away from us, but we'll be feeling its effects for sure.

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  15. Must be all quiet with weather because very little new posts.

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  16. It does not look like a good snow set up for Rochester or Buffalo area. The winds will be mostly west this week and next week when even colder air comes in. We will cold but not a lot, if any snow.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Buffalo might get a good thumping early next week, in fact the NWS discussion explicitly mentions the possibility of a moist flow aiming a band at areas northeast or east of the lakes. Rochester isn't getting anything significant from the big lake but I wouldn't rule out seeing the grass mostly covered at some point. There's also an intriguing little coastal number showing up on both the GFS and parallel GFS in varying positions, however the GEM and Euro depict much less organized systems. This is not a time period to be catching up on missed siestas.

      Delete
  17. Getting my new modem activated ended up being a bitch and a half. Also don't look now, but Typhoon Nuri's BSR reflection has been showing up in the GFS output pretty consistently for the past few days with some very robust depictions.

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  18. One more thing: WeatherTrends continues to predict a "disappointing" winter, a forecast which seems to be based heavily on the northeast Pacific cooling down completely below average. Recall my comment from awhile back about leaning too heavily on the NE Pacific for a winter forecast, especially in light of this trend...or lack thereof:

    http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.10.27.2014.gif
    http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.10.30.2014.gif
    http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.11.3.2014.gif
    http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.11.6.2014.gif
    http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.11.10.2014.gif

    Keep in mind what a positive PDO looks like, and what it correlates with. Hint: it doesn't bode too well for ol' WeatherTrends, especially combined with the many other factors going against their forecast verifying:

    http://www.daculaweather.com/images/pdo_cold.png
    http://i43.tinypic.com/jh7ord.jpg

    ReplyDelete
  19. Thanks CC. I always enjoy your weather expertise. I appreciate it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I wouldn't say "expertise" since I'm not an expert, but thanks for the compliment anyway ^_^

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  20. i live in oswego ny..how much snow do you predict us getting over here thur night/fri morning with that lake effect band moving wind when the northwest winds become well aligned

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    Replies
    1. From the NWS discussion:

      "OFF LAKE ONTARIO EXPECT A BAND TO INTENSIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL AND OSWEGO COUNTY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL DROP AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY AMOUNTS."

      So it looks like 2-4 inches barring any major shifts in forecast parameters. Maybe up to 6 in localized areas.

      Delete
  21. If the GGEM verifies, Buffalo and Watertown are going to get absolutely obliterated early next week. That's IF the GGEM verifies, though I must say it's been startlingly consistent regarding placement and amounts.

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  22. Define obliterated. Feel free to use terms or phrases used in Revelations.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well over a foot of snow. But that would be dipping into the basket of cherries.

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    2. Did I say well over a foot? I meant well over TWO feet. But again, basket of cherries.

      Delete
  23. Once again Rochester left out next week going to e a long boring winter for snow lovers.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. A little better but still no dice on that b8 m8. Still lacking in originality, also being deliberately stupid is no longer an acceptable trolling philosophy. You have a lot to learn.

      Delete
  24. The parallel GFS and the Euro keep things interesting for a possible wintry system early next week. The regular GFS and the GGEM are further SE, but still yield some light accumulations. A tandem consisting of the newly upgraded GFS and King Euro seems a good deal more formidable than the tandem of Old GFS and the GGEM. But right now it's wait-and-see mode.

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  25. I'm going to look like a buffoon..but what is the parallel GFS?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You don't look like a buffoon, don't worry. The parallel GFS is the soon-to-be replacement of the current GFS. It runs concurrently with the current GFS at a higher resolution and with beefier hardware.

      Delete
    2. Forgot to link it:

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/

      Delete
  26. Chris now in PenfieldNovember 12, 2014 at 5:28 PM

    I don't know what the parallel GFS is but I want to take a crack at it. I will say it is the GFS ensemble, a compilation of all of the GFS runs within a 24 hour period.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Euro fell in line with what GEM was depicting all week. Wouldn't be surprised if the GFS ensembles began hopping on board as the arctic front looks to arrive a little later than previously shown. As CCCC said, we will have to wait and see...

    And Anon 3:13p.m, smh...

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  28. And Chris, I think the parallel GFS uses a different computer system vs. the operational. Not 100% sure on that though...

    ReplyDelete
  29. I'm starting to think that the GGEM has absolutely no clue what it's doing right now. Vastly different output from the other models.

    Various ensemble members are mixed on the early week system, and there's nothing even remotely resembling agreement in the means.

    ReplyDelete
  30. I think Monday/Tuesday could get interesting just my opinion.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Nws forecast discussion for that period is also interesting.

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    2. Bernie Rayno agrees:

      http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/cold-coming-to-east-early-wee/90462062001?channel=top_story

      And as I type this, the 12z parallel GFS comes in much further NW.

      Delete
  31. I'm awfully curious to see how the Euro handles Nuri's BSR reflection once it reaches the model's time range, especially since the typically flat/progressive biased GFS has been depicting a sub-1000 mb low pretty consistently for several days. Keep in mind that the Euro is notorious for over-amplifying storms in its long range, which is precisely why I'm curious. Many of the GFS ensemble members also have a similarly vigorous system in varying positions, and I'm going to hazard a guess that the milder regime showing up in the means for Thanksgiving week is reflective of pronounced warm advection which would occur ahead of such a system.

    ReplyDelete
  32. Thanks for this CCCC, interesting!
    Now that winter Wx is on its way back, so am I on this blog.
    Andy

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/cold-coming-to-east-early-wee/90462062001?channel=top_story

    ReplyDelete
  33. CCCC you are awesome but hard to understand what you are meaning? Please this is not common core can you make it easier?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There's a relatively new forecasting device known as the Bering Sea Rule (BSR), which dictates that a storm system that shows up in the Bering Sea eventually translates to a storm system in the Lower 48 a few weeks later. The positioning of the system in the Bering Sea loosely correlates to its eventual positioning in the Lower 48, as does its strength. We had a system with a record low central pressure below 930 mb in the Bering Sea about a week ago, around the vicinity of the western Aleutians. The BSR isn't a 1 to 1 correlation so we won't be seeing a storm of that intensity crossing the nation at any point, however the intensity and positioning of the system in the Bering Sea does point to a strong system lifting across the Midwest and Great Lakes at some point during early/mid Thanksgiving week. It likely brings a significant warmup followed by gusty winds and maybe another notable temperature plunge.

      Delete
  34. CCCC, one event at a time! 12z Euro gives us a modest snowfall of 2-4". However, models don't do a good job of projecting lake enhancement, so that could easily translate to 3-6+". Still early, but I would like to see some agreement with the GFS to feel better about it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm not certain it'll be cold enough for lake enhancement, if anything the moderating effects of the lake might negate any potential enhancement setup.

      I don't give one quarter of a half-eaten s##t what the GFS says at this point. It's flatter and more progressive while all of the other guidance indicates something more amped and further west. This conflict plays out many times per winter and it always ends the same. Even the much welcomed replacement for the GFS is in line with the rest of the guidance. The only other model in remote agreement with the GFS solution right now is the NAM, which is basically the younger, crack-addled cousin of the GFS and currently has some semblance of a flat system way out in its fantasy range. In short, the GFS don't matter in this league.

      Delete
  35. Sensing a much colder and snowier winter that last year. Get ready for polar vortex to become a common place this winter.

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    Replies
    1. Every cold outbreak this season will have the media chirping about "polar vortex this, polar vortex that." Even if the polar vortex is barely discernible on upper air charts, which I expect a lot this winter given the near record SAI. Protip: weakened polar vortices are a good thing if you want it to be cold, because they allow arctic air to penetrate further south instead of being locked up at high latitudes by stronger circumpolar flow i.e. a strong polar vortex in its usual spot over the pole. Otherwise a consolidated polar vortex will only be a factor for another month or so as our cold outbreaks will be driven by the EPO more than anything during that time. Any period of negative EPO will move the PV to a more equatorward position much like the bulk of last winter, and send arctic air further south (with far less harsh results compared to last winter). After about mid December we may start to turn our attention to the NAO.

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    2. Also it would be nothing short of astounding on a biblical scale if this winter ended up colder than last winter, since last winter was quite possibly the coldest in US history...

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  36. Shocker of the day: the GFS continues to be flat and progressive while the parallel GFS continues to align with the other guidance. I'm setting an alert on my phone for the exact moment the parallel GFS replaces the current GFS, I'm going to treat it like New Years and chug a liter of vodka in celebration.

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  37. CCCC, the 850mb projected to be at -8 to-10c, with it cooling throughout the "event", so I would assume that would beef up snow totals. But it really all depends on the timing and how much it interacts with the arctic front. I'm interested to hear News 8's take on it!!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We have to factor in the marginal boundary layer passing over a relatively warm lake, flakes passing through that may melt a good deal as they fall. I could see it not being as much of a factor if the snow fell hard enough, at that point the phrase "dynamic cooling" would enter the discussion. As it stands both the GGEM and RGEM depict a good amount of mixing close to the lake, with the parallel GFS introducing a mix threat as well.

      "I'm interested to hear News 8's take on it!!!!"

      We should expect a thread on it within a month or so.

      Delete
  38. There will be at least one blizzard in The Flower City within the next post by News 8. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  39. Channel 10 came out with there winter forecast. 90- 103" (NBD). Colder than normal winter. When are we going to see a winter like 54-55, 55-56 and 57-58 when we had over 155" of snow. To me that is a winter. To get average snowfall is NBD.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Depends on how it happens...if we get nothing but nickel and dime snows then it's nothing to write home about. If it happens in the form of large storms then it's more substantial. Snowfall is such a tough thing to predict anyway, I think going with climo is a good move for now.

      Delete
  40. I'd offer detailed commentary on the 00z model runs, but I just got done pouring bleach into my eyes after watching that corpulent load of diarrhea the Bills just spewed in front of a national audience. So I'll keep it brief: GFS shifted next week's storm west, parallel GFS moved a few pixels east. Off to watch stupid youtube videos and hope it makes me forget the past 4 hours.

    ReplyDelete
  41. Get your shovels out next week. As the Black Eye Peas sang "I Got a Feeling".

    ReplyDelete
  42. I got a feeling too...the feeling of my lungs shredding apart as I slowly hack them up. Oh well, at least I get to stay home and view model porn all day.

    I can't see anything more than a moderate event next week, but some shovels may indeed be needed.

    ReplyDelete
  43. Happened rather quietly, but yesterday brought the first measurable snow of the season to KROC. A meager 0.2 inches, but it gets the ball rolling.

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  44. Still about 300 hours from when we would expect our Thanksgiving BSR storm to roll through and most of the GFS ensemble members already depict it in some form. Unusually strong signal for this time range. Many of them are quite intense as well.

    ReplyDelete
  45. So CCCC you are saying this BSR rule happens there will be a strong storm some where along the east coast in about 12 days?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not necessarily the east coast. In fact probably not the east coast since the Bering Sea system tracked NNW over the western Aleutians, which correlates roughly to a track from near southwestern Missouri up through Wisconsin. My guess is still that the system takes that approximate track and delivers a strong warmup followed by gusty winds and a sharp cooldown, with severe weather across the Ohio Valley and snow in the upper Midwest. The ensemble means are indicating that the first half of Thanksgiving week will be milder while the second half cools down, lending a little more credence to that guess.

      Delete
  46. Anon that is what he is saying and that is like trying say BBR rule which says after 14 years of being the laughing stock in the NFL and not making the playoffs the Jills are going to make it because there was 5 feet of lake effect snow in Buffalo. In other words he is nuts and it is not happening.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Now you've got a bit more originality going, I like it. But you're still too obvious.

      Delete
  47. I've not heard of the BSR rule. I'm going to have to look that up. I hope it works.

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    Replies
    1. Nitpicking here but "BSR rule" is redundant, since the R in BSR stands for "rule." And keep in mind that it's not a magic bullet, just another tool that can help with long range forecasting. But from what I've seen it has a rather promising outlook, assuming forecasters use it properly.

      Delete
    2. Like ATM machine or PIN number or Time Period or VIN number

      Delete
  48. Well, I'd assume it would be similar to the typhoon re-curve rule. It can give a strong hint at what is going to happen down the road but not the exact details. In fact my google adventures suggest both rules may have come from the same person.

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  49. I found the link I was looking for btw. I didn't describe it right.

    http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/usclimdivs/

    ReplyDelete
  50. The NWS out of Binghamton talks about the storm for Sunday night and Tuesday but the NWS out of Buffalo does not even mention it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "ON MONDAY THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST WITH WEAK LIFT THROUGHOUT WESTERN NY...BUT BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE FARTHER EAST FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY."

      So it seems like they're simply brushing it aside as a NBD-er, although the guidance since then has shifted a good deal farther west just like Bernie Rayno said it would.

      Delete
  51. I said it yesterday "I got a Feeling" keep the shovels handy Monday. The latest data may show that but the great CCCC must weigh in on that.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Here's my opinion: the Shovel Index on a scale of 1 to 5 ranks at about a 1 right now.

      Delete
  52. Just covering the grass is a victory for old man winter this time of the year. Not expecting a blizzard.

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  53. Buffalo is gonna get walloped. We will be lake effect spectators next week, We will just be cold.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "IN TERMS OF PTYPE...IT STILL APPEARS THAT OUR AREA SHOULD REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW IN SPITE OF THE OVERALL WARM ADVECTION REGIME...THOUGH IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...WHERE TEMPS ALOFT MAY FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK FOR A PERIOD DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. WHEN TRANSLATED INTO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THE CURRENT MODEL QPF CONSENSUS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AREAWIDE...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS APPEARING MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY. TAKEN IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SNOWFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCATIONS PUSHING OR EVEN REACHING LOW-END ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...FOR WHICH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME NECESSARY."

      Not to mention the wind may be strong enough to push some lake effect as far east as the Rochester metro. Whether that happens or not, we won't be completely left out of everything.

      Delete
    2. Buffalo could see 1-2 feet.

      Delete
  54. All of us snow lovers in Rochester are gonna be jealous when the snow belts pick up 2-3 ft or more next week and we get an 1 or 2. I wish I lived in a snowbelt.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Instead of steaming with jealousy, I'm going to try driving into it. Because I am just barely sane enough to function.

      There isn't jack s##t to do in the snowbelts anyway, I wouldn't want to live there.

      Delete
    2. I like the idea of driving in it,. See what it is like.

      Delete
  55. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
    SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
    WEDNESDAY MORNING.

    * LOCATIONS...NORTHERN ERIE...GENESEE...WYOMING...AND ALLEGANY
    COUNTIES.

    * TIMING...EARLY MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

    * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING ONE TO TWO FEET OR
    MORE IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

    ReplyDelete

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