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Sunday, November 16

EARLY SEASON LAKE EFFECT WILL HIT HARD

Written By:  Scott Hetsko

As of 22Z this evening, warm advection precipitation was breaking out over Southern Ontario and Ohio in response to Southerly winds aloft.  I expect Western New York to get a period of light to moderate snowfall later evening into the early morning hours of Monday.  Most will wake up to 1-3" of wet, slushy snow with possible slick road conditions.



Following the passage of a cold front, temperatures will plummet late Monday night and Tuesday.  A strong response is expected off both Lake Erie and Ontario.  Our focus is Erie since our wind will be coming from the WSW.  Below is my forecast for snow fall by Tuesday night.


When looking at these forecast numbers, the higher number is for the furthest WEST of that particular color.  For example, while Penfield may get 2-3" of snow while Churchville can expect 5" or more depending on how long the band stays over that area.  Lake snow is LOCAL snow!  Be safe and remember to check in with News 8 often for updates.  Don't forget our Winter special will air LIVE at 5:30 this Thursday.


246 comments:

  1. "Don't forget our Winter special will air LIVE at 5:30 this Thursday."

    GET HYPE
    BIGGEST MOMENT OF OUR LIVES
    WINTER PREGAME PARTY BONANZA GONNA GET SLOSHED AF WHOOOO

    Back to serious: the NWS mentioned that rates could be in the 3-5 inch per hour range in the heaviest lake effect off Erie. That could mean a lot more than 18 inches for any location where the band persists. Thing is that the band is expected to oscillate, so residence time seems to be the only limiting factor.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Forecast is only through Tuesday evening. More will fall there into Wednesday.

      Delete
    2. Can you use your magical powers to stretch the core of the lake snow out to Webster? Otherwise I'll be prone to several highly irresponsible decisions over the next few days.

      Delete
  2. Rochester gets the raw deal again with very little snow. Going to be a boring snow less winter just know it.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Buffalo is going to have a blizzard

    ReplyDelete
  4. Yeah I wish I lived in buffalo.

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  5. I live in buffalo I am so psyched.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Wow picked up a lot of snow in the Rochester area last night. That was a joke of course we got rain in the city.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That wasn't rain. It was tears. This is still an early start to the season. Even if we are spectators on the fringe.

      Delete
  7. Pretty sure you haven't seen any rain this morning unless you live in the Finger Lakes. Otherwise everyone should have one or two slushy inches by now.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Buffalo still going to get hit hard tomorrow?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. High-res NAM has a 250 wind vector from late tonight through tomorrow evening. So along and south of a line from downtown to Batavia would get just demolished if that verified. I think we'll see a reality pretty close to that.

      Delete
  9. I've said it many times before and I will say it again here: the RPM is an embarrassingly awful model. Always way overdone on precip and way too far south with lake effect. It was 20 miles off on last winter's lake effect blizzard for instance. And I'm still waiting for it to verify on that 6 feet of snow it predicted in Boston from that storm a few seasons ago.

    ReplyDelete
  10. When is the LES suppose to get going and is there a chance Monroe county can get hit?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Southwest Monroe county will get a few inches. The rest of us, not much.

      Delete
  11. Pattern change this weekend through next week with flooding potential.

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  12. No doubt a warmer regime next week. Already looking for signs of the next cool down.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Rain has crappied up my snow cover.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Same deal here...not like there was much to begin with though lol

      Delete
  14. LES Warning and LES Watch simultaneously in the counties to our west. Someone there is going to have snow up to their nipples by the end of the week.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. More than likely will be those who live in Wyoming County; which tends to get the worst or best of it (however you would like to see it).

      Delete
    2. If any part of Wyoming County it would be the northern third. This is primarily a SW flow event, rather than the more traditional westerly flow event where places like Warsaw get smoked.

      Delete
    3. Second event as well...SW wind slowly veering to W and then eventually NW.

      Delete
    4. Chris now in PenfieldNovember 17, 2014 at 7:27 PM

      Wyoming County also has high elevation - lots of upsloping.

      Delete
  15. If current trends hold, the heaviest snow is going to end up a fair bit north of the current forecasts. Lake response developing rapidly, the resulting band is going to be huge and extremely vicious.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Chris now in PenfieldNovember 17, 2014 at 7:28 PM

    I will report in from a reliable source in NE Oswego County - my camp plow guy. We don't call him "The Captain" just because of his name.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Updated NWS discussion:

    "MINOR UPDATE THIS EVENING TO INITIALLY BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO THE BUFFALO METRO AREA FOR A FEW HOURS. THIS IS THE ONSET OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WHICH HAS SET UP SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN INITIALLY ANTICIPATED. A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACROSS THE BUFFALO METRO AREA THIS EVENING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS BAND. HOWEVER DOWNSTREAM RADAR OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND FORMING OVER LAKE ERIE. ONCE THIS BAND MATURES AND ORGANIZES BETTER THIS EVENING...THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHTOWNS BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH INTO DOWNTOWN BUFFALO TO THE AIRPORT BY MORNING."

    And yet Don Paul continues to tout the frigging RPM...I swear that model is almost as bad as the CRAS, and that thing once took a hurricane all the way to Denver. Like what sort of physics package leads to a single band being depicted with its tail end halfway onto the shoreline? Far from the first time I've seen it too. I wouldn't be surprised if the processing array for that thing consisted of actual potatoes.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Chris now in PenfieldNovember 17, 2014 at 8:28 PM

    There is a hurricane heading to Denver. New England in the playoffs. And I hate the Patriots.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Lake Erie band seems to be stretching out quite a bit, light lake effect in my neck of the woods, Penfield.

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  20. Band will drop South for a few hours overnight but then again hit the metro tomorrow morning for rush hour. Still expect SW Monroe, West of I-390 to get the most in our little neck of the woods. Thursday morning will be quite similar.

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  21. Wow that lake effect band off erie is impressive but very narrow. Someone is going to get clobbered and then flooded by next week.

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  22. For some in the area it is and has been snowing 3-5" per hours. They are expecting FEETS of snow. I know folks on the blog always comment that we miss the "big one", but seriously who wants to shovel that much snow and try to get to work on time.

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  23. It is also very local. That band is very narrow.

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  24. It will all melt away this weekend and next week as we get into the 50's. Rapid melt. Lake effect is all air.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This lake effect is different...a lot of it is rather watery like most early season stuff.

      Delete
  25. Dont see much cold air after this through the rest of Novmeber and early December. it is going to be locked up in Canada.

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  26. ... Erie County...
    Lancaster 42.0 900 am 11/18 NWS employee
    West Seneca 29.0 926 am 11/18 NWS employee
    Depew 22.0 630 am 11/18 NWS employee

    ... Erie County...
    Lancaster 48.0 1015 am 11/18 amateur radio
    1 S East Lancaster 42.0 1000 am 11/18 near Como Park
    Elma 37.2 820 am 11/18 cocorahs
    1 E East Lancaster 37.0 1040 am 11/18 social media
    Alden 36.0 930 am 11/18 social media
    1 WNW Orchard Park 36.0 910 am 11/18 dept of highways

    NY Buffalo Intl Arpt 3.2 700 am 11/18 ASOS

    That is impressive. And impressively local.

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  27. So jealous. 42" already. Wow.

    ReplyDelete
  28. Remember when Stacey tagged the 5 feet of model snow as a load of baloney?

    "BASED ON REPORTS THIS MORNING OF SOME AREAS FROM SOUTH BUFFALO TO LANCASTER OF NEAR 40 INCHES ALREADY AND THE FACT THAT THE BAND WILL NOT MOVE MUCH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WE HAVE INCREASED STORM TOTALS TO AROUND 70 INCHES IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS."

    There isn't a single thing I can come up with to describe that...I don't even have a clever quip lined up or anything. My family in the impact zone have been texting me pictures and stuff all morning, my sister's car is completely buried and my dad ran out of gas for his snowblower. They all live in the Depew/Cheektowaga vicinity, by the look of things they have around 40+ inches by now and still going hard. Maybe 5 feet by the time they reach the end. And then another 1-2 feet on top of that later in the week.

    just...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. any pictures to share with the class?

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    2. I don't feel like pulling them off of my phone right now, but visit this thread for bunches of really amazing pics:

      http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44743-upstate-nynorth-country-adjacent-on-qc-vt-end-of-fallinto-winter/page-10

      Also various weather folk have been tweeting pictures all day. I'll throw my own up onto my Google+ later today.

      Delete
    3. Pure Snow Porn.

      Delete
  29. Then major flooding next week.

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  30. What's really extraordinary is that KBUF has recorded next to nothing so far, just over 3 inches as of this morning. They'll cash in on Round 2 for sure though.

    Long range time: not much jumps out as a gangbuster winter pattern after this week, but we aren't heading into a disaster torch pattern either. My guess is ups and downs through the middle of December, maybe slightly above normal on temps with brief bouts of lake effect accompanying any cold shots.

    ReplyDelete
  31. Someone tell Stacey that she didn't draw that northern gradient anywhere close to sharp enough. The edge of the red blob should be maybe a few pixels south of the edge of the white one. Trust me, I'm a doctor.

    ReplyDelete
  32. One more comment: I can say with confidence that the NY State record for 24 hour snowfall will be broken today in one of Buffalo's suburbs, probably West Seneca or Elma.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What's the record?

      Delete
    2. 49 inches at Watertown back in 1900. Lancaster and Alden have both received 48 inches in the past 24 hours, but I trust that the next row of towns to their south will far surpass that number.

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    3. Chris now in PenfieldNovember 19, 2014 at 7:52 PM

      Not true! Montague, NY (Tug Hill, population of town less than 50) holds the 24 hour NYS record - 77 inches!

      Delete
    4. Chris now in PenfieldNovember 19, 2014 at 7:53 PM

      Oops, sent this before seeing WeatherGuy's post

      Delete
  33. Actually Adams,NY in the Tug Hill received 68" in 24 hours on 1/9/76 and Montague Township received 77" in a 24 hour period in 1997.

    http://books.google.com/books?id=SV229set7RIC&pg=PA80&lpg=PA80&dq=snowfall+record+in+a+24+hour+period+in+new+york+state&source=bl&ots=ja6jc-fDR2&sig=UQQyfm8UQF3aIA5gLVqsI6gbFx0&hl=en&sa=X&ei=X4hrVPKeN4P4yQSoxYHgAw&ved=0CB4Q6AEwAA#v=onepage&q=snowfall%20record%20in%20a%2024%20hour%20period%20in%20new%20york%20state&f=false

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think the Watertown record is for a calendar date while the Adams record is for a 24 hour period possibly spanning two dates, so I was probably somewhat mistaken earlier. Either way the daily record is going to be demolished, and the 24 hour record may be in some jeopardy as well. The Montague record is unofficial because of dodgy measuring procedures according to your link.

      Delete
    2. Sorry, I misunderstood what you were implying, but yeah, 60-70" is not out of the question with this event. And here in Chili, it's snowing at a decent clip right now. Interested to see how much the band meanders this evening...

      Delete
    3. No I specifically said 24 hour record earlier, so I was mistaken. And here in Webster...nothing.

      The band is only expected to shift about 10 miles further south, so there's little doubt in my mind that the 24 hour record falls tonight.

      Delete
    4. Chris now in PenfieldNovember 19, 2014 at 7:57 PM

      My friend was riding his snowmobile with his uncle on the afternoon of the 77" event. They rode through feet of snow, coming down at several inches per hour. They often rode off the trail on accident, unable to see. Headlights and windshields were quickly covered in snow, and once they slowed down to clear them, they got stuck. Somehow, they got back to Redfield (40 miles away from where they started, Barnes Corners). They decided they could make it from Cedar Pines (restaurant/bar in Osceola - 10 miles from Redfield) to Redfield, and they did. They had to spend the night in the back of a pickup truck with a cap on it, with the window open from the cab for heat. They had to wait for the front loader to come in the next day and clear the parking lot to get out.

      Delete
  34. I know folks on the blog always complain about "once again we missed out on the big one"; but seeing all of the photos from the Buffalo area -- am glad that we missed out on this one. Can't even imagine shoveling/digging out from all that snow; let alone find your car in it. Imagine all of the lost wages for those who can't take the day off with pay. Even the snow plow operators are probably struggling to simply keep up. It is certainly impressive to say the least.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Most locations are wrong for this kind of Lake effect, including the ROC area. But there would be something fun about witnessing an event like this and truly being snowed in.

      Andy

      Delete
  35. I wish I was there. We get wimpy snow in Rochester in comparison.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Everywhere except the Tug Hill and the Sierra Nevada get wimpy snow by comparison. Even this much at one time is rather unprecedented.

      Delete
  36. What is going on upstream!? Looks as though winds are shifting NW off of Superior/G.Bay...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Passing shortwave that will nudge the Lake Erie band a bit further south. No impact around here.

      Delete
  37. Welcome back to winter everyone :) anyone have a 4wd vehicle and want to take off work tomorrow to help out the poor people of south buffalo? I'll supply the beer.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 4wd wouldn't cut it, you'd need a snowmobile. Many of the roads have multiple feet of snow on them, also a good number of the main routes are closed to auto traffic. Plows aren't getting through for awhile either.

      Delete
    2. I appreciate your respect for this event but you underestimate my resolve lol

      Delete
    3. Chris now in PenfieldNovember 19, 2014 at 7:59 PM

      Even sleds will have a tough time in so much snow. Trust me, I've got 30,000 miles of riding experience.

      Delete
  38. Any updates on the top snow fall amounts in places like Lancaster.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Spotter in Cheektowaga was reporting 51 inches at 3:30 this afternoon, and it's been ripping ever since. They have to be over the 5 foot mark by now.

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    2. At what depth do the plows get immobilized? I imagine the bigger issue is the stranded car soup in the way.

      I hope Hamlin Plower shows up this year.

      Delete
    3. I have never left, I have ready every new blog and post since last winter ended. I just haven't had anything to add.

      Delete
    4. HP. What's it take to get a plow stuck?

      Delete
    5. It only takes poor visibility and a shallow ditch or a soft muddy road shoulder to get stuck. If you keep the truck on the road with no cars in the way it will move as much snow as you put in front of it.

      Delete
  39. The snow depth is not the issue for the plow trucks. The plow trucks can easily be equipped with v-plows to clear the deep snow. The visibility and stranded cars under the snow are the major problems for clearing the roads.

    ReplyDelete
  40. I would also like to add that I am extremely jealous of those areas south of Buffalo. This would be one of the weather events you live through that you would never forget.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Imagine how any snow lovers just north of the gradient must feel...I'd be ready to dive off of a cliff.

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    2. You would survive a dive from a fairly tall cliff landing in 60 inches of snow.

      Delete
    3. The is no doubt in my mind, that if I didn't work for the highway and this was occurring 4 miles from my house, my pickup truck would be stuck in the heart of that snow band. I would be happier than a kid on Christmas morning with his new red rider pellet gun.

      Delete
    4. I'd be rocketing out towards my parents right now if the roads to get to them weren't clogged with 4 feet of snow and closed off to vehicular traffic.

      Delete
    5. I remember back in 1995 when I was 16 I drove my mothers Ford tempo to Brockport Mac Donalds. Then curiosity get the best of me and I ended up driving into Batavia to find the LES band. I was young it scared me quickly and I turned around before I got myself in trouble. I always wonder what would I have found if I kept heading south on Rt 98.

      Delete
    6. Being on those hills in the middle of intense lake effect is downright terrifying. I was on 98 somewhere near Varysburg in the middle of a strong band one time, could barely see more than a few feet in front of me plus I nearly spun out going downhill a few times. Most harrowing 20 mph crawl of my life, felt like it lasted forever. So in short, you would've found a fresh pile of your own excrement waiting to greet you inside your undies.

      Delete
    7. Forgot to mention that this occurred at night.

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    8. At the time being only 16 and never haven driven in the snow before you are probably correct. I should be thankful I turned around.

      The final note tonight. It would be disappointing in a way to have this magnitude snowfall event in your area so early in the season. What would the be left to look forward to once winter gets here to stay. Nothing this winter could possibly top what is happening currently south of Buffalo. Here in Roc our best winter weather is STILL TO COME.

      Delete
    9. I can only hope we actually GET some big winter weather. Seems like that's a once in a blue moon occasion around here, unless you live right along the lake.

      Delete
    10. Night driving in LE is terrifying. Did it once going across 177 up North. 10 mph and couldn't tell if I was on the road or in a field. My worry was a plow or other vehicle coming along and wiping me out if I got stuck. And just the thought of being stuck "way out there " and not being able to get help if needed got the old ticker pumping too.

      Delete
  41. I just can't wrap my head around such an intense band parked over the same place ALL DAY LONG. I swear that radar hasn't changed all day.

    ReplyDelete
  42. And most bizarrely, KBUF and KROC have received very similar totals from this event so far. If this band had parked just 4 miles further NW then KBUF would already be more than halfway to its seasonal average, and would be experiencing its snowiest November on record by a long shot. A seemingly inconsequential subtlety in the wind direction ends up making a world of difference.

    ReplyDelete
  43. Finally got some pics from the family onto my google+ page. Three of them are of the same general area, note the marked increase in snow buildup compared to the small tree within the shot. All are from long before the most recent spotter reports.

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  44. Someone on the AmericanWx thread just posted a pic of snow piled all the way to the top of their doorframe. As few words as I had earlier to describe this event, I have even fewer now.

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  45. I'm listening to crews on the thruway trying to aid people stranded. The rescuers said they can't walk more than 40' without exposure and exhaustion, and that groomers, atv's and snowmobiles are the only way to move.

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  46. Where the hell are the storms? Once again all it is all lake effect. Where are the storms.

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  47. Anyone else lose power?

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  48. So what are the snow totals this morning?

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  49. Nothing in Rochester, but that is normal. Buffalo Southtowns: some are approaching 70". Some areas will get more snow in 2 days than we will see all year.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We actually got a tad over 3 inches:

      http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=buf&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF&format=ci&version=1

      Delete
    2. That is the SW edge of Monroe County. Most of us received a trace.

      Delete
    3. No that is the airport, in the very middle of Monroe County and right next to the city.

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    4. I don't trust their measurements at all. Remember last year.

      Delete
    5. 3 inches seems reasonable though. Last season for the New Years storm they measured 11 inches at the airport when everyone else had well over a foot, THAT was unreasonable.

      Delete
    6. 3" is nothing to write home about. 100" is.

      Delete
  50. Got about 4-5 inches here. Snowed pretty good around nightfall.

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  51. No records have been broken yet, but I half expect a few days of rigorous analysis at the NWS to yield a 70+ inch total for someone, perhaps even approaching 80.

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  52. Co-workers have family who lives in Buffalo. Some of the photos they sharing are unbelievable. I know folks on the blog are disappointed to say the least that Rochester missed, out but to see some of the photos glad that we did not get slammed with this much snow.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. To add to the silver lining, I would imagine that experiencing this in person would spoil most other big storms in the future. "A few feet huh? Nothing to get excited about, I still remember that 5 footer from several years back. This will be nothing compared to that."

      Delete
    2. Very good point, and how right you are!

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  53. Big time wave 1 SSW signal showing up in Siberia in the 8-10 day range. Translation: PV driven cold may become a reality after the first 10 days of December.

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  54. The long term data shows a warm-up and no winter air for quite a while. It will be well into January before we get a storm in Rochester.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Turning the dial to maximum overtroll this afternoon eh? Still not good enough.

      Delete
  55. Just looking at the data Carol.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No, you're doing a very poor job of trolling. Otherwise you would've referenced something specific when you said "the data." Good trolling has some basis in reality.

      Delete
  56. I am just amazed at the pictures coming out of Buffalo. I am in awe. I have about a trace on the ground here in Western Wayne county. They have to worry about major flooding when we get into the 50's and rain.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Why would you call almost 70" of now weenie snow. Come on.

      Delete
    2. "Weenie" is a slang term for overzealous weather nut. You know, the kind of person who has wet dreams about storms of this caliber.

      Delete
  57. ...ERIE COUNTY...
    4 S CHEEKTOWAGA 65.0 1004 AM 11/19 ESTIMATED
    LANCASTER 63.0 944 AM 11/19 NWS EMPLOYEE
    GARDENVILLE 60.0 800 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER
    WEST SENECA 57.0 800 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER
    2 W WEST SENECA 51.0 700 AM 11/19 COCORAHS
    ELMA 51.0 800 PM 11/1
    8 TRAINED

    Truly Staggering

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  58. Something appearing to be a meso-low is riding up the squall line over the Niagara Peninsula.

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  59. They are already talking about another lake effect event around Thanksgiving with a SW flow leaving Rochester high and dry again.

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    Replies
    1. Doesn't look cold enough for anything big, and besides I remember the last time the NWS mentioned lake effect on a SW flow at a week's lead time...it slowly started looking like more of a SSW flow event, and eventually trended to a total non-event.

      Delete
  60. NAO looking to crash beginning of December. Couple this with the SSW that CCCC previously mentioned and we could be talking about some serious cold with staying power 2nd week of December.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Will it comes with synoptic snow or just lake effect that the Rochester area does not get.

      Delete
    2. Reminder that stratwarm events don't always place the coldest air in our hemisphere. That's why I used the word "may" in my post. Also that "crash" in the NAO is depicted in the ensembles at a very long lead time, and there is quite a bit of spread amongst the members. The means by which we get snow out of any cold pattern are impossible to determine right now.

      "...or just lake effect that the Rochester area does not get."

      http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/rocclifo.htm
      "About half of the annual snowfall comes from the "lake effect" process and is very localized."

      Delete
  61. KW tweet:

    "Heavy lake squall band with thunder and lightning heading east from Orleans County. Will be in ROC within the hour."

    So much for high and dry...

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    Replies
    1. Can't stop staring at that radar. Look at that snow off of eerie. All the way to Rochester. And my word. How much new snkw is getting dumped on top of the 5 feet from yesterday.

      Delete
  62. Let's keep in mind that the average high this time of year is mid 40's or something like that. Saying no winter air as far as the model can see is kinda oopidstay.

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  63. Another dusting this AM in Western Wayne County.

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  64. Looks like the nextseveral storms will pass to ur West whihc is typical. The ares that received 7-8 ft will have major issues with flooding come this weekend and next. It looks like a disaster in the making.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I couldn't find a single model depicting "several" storms passing to our west, although the upcoming pattern does favor Great Lakes storm tracks over coastal ones.

      Delete
  65. Somehow managed a few fluffy inches this morning even this far east. KROC totaled 2.8 inches from Round 2 which brings the seasonal tally up to around 6.5 inches. That's a little above normal to date so far.

    Thanksgiving weekend may get interesting with the possibility of a deep low crossing the Great Lakes.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What do you mean by deep low and if it crosses the great lakes wouldn't that mean rain?

      Delete
    2. Yes and then Lake effect for Buffalo again leavine Rochester high and dry.

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    3. Rain and wind, possibly high wind, and I'm guessing if lake effect happens it'll be in the traditional areas.

      Delete
  66. Flooding issues will occur with the snowmelt but I don't think it'll be too difficult to handle. The warmup will be short plus not much rain will fall, not to mention a lot of the meltwater will simply get absorbed back into the snowpack. If we were talking about several days in the 70s with heavy rainfall amounts...then I'd be concerned.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 40's Saturday and Sunday near 50, Monday in the 60's with rain. There will BIG issues.

      Delete
    2. A quarter to a half inch of rain, so not much additional water. The rate of melt will be high enough to cause problems in select areas, but it won't be a widespread disaster.

      Delete
  67. I'm thinking weight on roofs and structures might be a bigger deal than water and flooding.

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    Replies
    1. It already is...several roof collapses have already been reported.

      Delete
    2. CCCC,
      How is your family making out with the snow?

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    3. They're doing okay, still trying to hack away at the stuff in their driveways but otherwise they're safe and sound. Thanks for the concern :)

      Delete
    4. I think it would probably be fun for the first day or two but after that you got to start losing it.

      Delete
  68. Areas South of Buffalo are getting pummeled again. Some will surpass 100" easily. That heavy band has not moved all day.

    ReplyDelete
  69. My forecast for the News 8 Winter Ready forecast: the weather team will (reasonably) predict average snowfall this winter, and at least a few individuals will come to the blog afterwards to gripe about it.

    ReplyDelete
  70. That is what they predict every year. Nothing new. 90-110 inches. After what happened in Buffalo nothing we get this winter will even compare.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Very few events that even Buffalo has gotten will compare. '77 is probably the only one that can be put on the same level.

      If we manage to get a strong nor'easter to stall for 3 days over northern New Jersey that might compare...lol

      Delete
    2. Pretty much anything anywhere will ever compare.

      As for the prediction of 90-110, that is a good bet since that is the fat part of the curve, slightly biased upward due to the early cold.

      Andy

      Delete
  71. Well look at that, Scott's forecast is almost identical to my own amateur guesswork from about a month ago, except he put actual numbers on his. Maybe I really do know a thing or two about weather after all ;)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Of course this isn't implying that Scott's forecast is amateur guesswork, more like finely crafted professional wizardry. Could've used slightly better wording.

      Delete
  72. Where are the synoptic storms. All this cold air and no storms. Typical.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's mid November. So this extensive cold is Atypical.

      Delete
    2. When was the last time we got a big synoptic snowstorm in mid November? And yet how many arctic shots have we experienced in the same time frame? Try some patience dearest Anon.

      Delete
  73. Why are people on the blog complaining about the winter storm that we missed out on. So lets see what did we in Rochester miss out on:

    - 70+ inches of snow
    - Being stranded in your vehicles on 590/490/390 or the Thruway for 24-36+ hours. Let along not knowing when you vehicles will be dug out and how much it will cost you for the towing, etc.
    - Lost wages for anyone who was not able to get into work due to roads not plowed, etc.
    - Businesses who lost revenue due to the storm
    - Being trapped in your house, and need to get out for food, medicine, etc.
    - No one able to check on people who have medical conditions and might need assistant
    - Snow coming through your door/windows (check out of the photos) -- wonder what the damage and if their insurance coverage
    - Weight of snow on roofs of houses/business which can equal several tons. Roofs cracking and collapsing -- people trapped/injuried
    - Damage to your vehicle after being trapped under that amount of snow
    - People not able to travel home for the holidays; let along any college kids who are unable to stay on campus/dorms

    So who really made out good -- all the private plow companies who now have more business than they can handle; home/business repair companies, roofing companies, etc.

    Seriously are you that disappointed to have missed out on all of this?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think I would've cried "uncle" sometime around the 65th inch.

      Delete
    2. I really don't think there is much complaining on this blog about KROC missing out. Maybe a couple, but that's it. It is certainly interesting and fascinating to look at and talk about for sure.

      As an avid snow lover myself, I'm glad we didn't get that kind of snow. It's just too much, too dangerous and too destructive. I liken it to going to an all you can eat steak buffet with open bar, making a complete pig of yourself and dying of an alcohol and protein overdose.

      Andy

      Delete
    3. That's what she said.
      ...wrong board.

      Delete
  74. Any future weather updates

    ReplyDelete
  75. Not much going on next week. Pretty boring. No storms.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I counted 2 actually, though one of them MAY be a miss.

      Delete
  76. I can already tell every warm up is going to be muted and shorter in duration than expected as it approaches. Big, big winter incoming.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The long range models are going to be harping on pattern shifts to mild regimes all winter long. They might verify exactly one time. The cold regime we're in right now is generally a very stable type of pattern.

      Delete
  77. Chris now in PenfieldNovember 22, 2014 at 11:40 AM

    Back from camp in northeastern Oswego County. There was about 10" of snow earlier in the week, which melted down to 3-4" and froze hard. Thursday night was interesting. There was snow as heavy as what was coming down in Buffalo just north of me, by about 5 miles. Looking north, I could see an occasional flash of lightning across the sky, almost just like a summertime thunderstorm! I had some work to do outside, and it was anxious racing against the lake effect plume just a tiny bit away from me. I got inside before it sank south and dropped about 8" in 3-4 hours. The Lake Ontario band was more unstable than the Erie band…if you watched it on radar, it oscillated, like a snake. Some areas would get it badly, then it would swing south, then back north again. Really neat to watch on radar…and in person!

    Is there a way to post pictures here?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Three options:

      1) Get a Google Plus account, upload pics to it and reply to this blog using that account.
      2) Go to imgur.com and upload your pics there. Requires no account of any kind. Forewarning that some of what you see on the front page of that site may be rather offensive.
      3) Facebook those SOBs.

      Delete
    2. I'm a fan of dropbox. Download app on your phone or computer. Dump pictures in folder.

      They magically sync with online.

      Post the "Publish Link" any pictures you add later will be there.

      Delete
  78. I believe the models are showing a Thanksgiving storm on the east coast that is shifting more west every run? Could it be a Nor'easter?

    ReplyDelete
  79. Anyone watching live news conference in Erie county. The Governor is on and he called out the NWS in Buffalo for the LES forecast. What an idiot. How did he get reelected.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, New York's new "weather detection system" is going to be amazing. Give me a break. He needs to head back down state. Just looking at his beady eyes gives me a head ache even before he opens his mouth.

      Delete
    2. The NWS Buffalo forecasted this storm to the best of their abilities, and they did an excellent job right down to the razor sharp gradient. Cuomo needs to keep his mouth shut about things he doesn't understand.

      Delete
  80. The possible Nor'easter will be way to far east to impact us at all.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Plenty of time still to go and zero model agreement. But eastern areas are favored at this time.

      Delete
    2. Of course they are. That is what always happens. Should not surprise anyone. Rochester misses the Lake effect and storms.

      Delete
    3. Dearest anon-kun, if we miss the lake effect and storms then how do we get 100 inches of snow per winter?

      Delete
    4. We get nickel and dimed all year. That is how we get 100".

      Delete
    5. But if those nickels and dimes aren't coming from storms or lake effect...then where are they coming from?

      Delete
    6. I am talking abut BIG lake effect storms and BIG synoptic storms. All we get are little clipper systems that produce 1-3 inches. We get nickel and dimed on lake effect as well. We miss the BIG Nor 'Easters most of the time. Once in a while we get lucky. I am used to it. It is just the way it is.

      Delete
    7. We've gotten more major snowstorms (10+ inches) than any other city in the eastern US over the past 3 seasons. And we average 4 snowfalls of 6 or more inches each winter. Check this out:

      http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/2010/snowstorms.png

      Our "heavy snowstorm" frequency is pretty comparable to the vast majority of the eastern US, excluding the coast where that number is much lower. This whole "we never get big storms" trope is a misconception caused by the fact that our region is a much smaller target than all other locations combined. An analogy: if you throw a baseball in a tin can's general direction then the most likely outcome is a miss, because the tin can is a smaller target than the space around it. So it only follows that we're going to miss most of the big storms, because our relatively small region is statistically less likely to be hit than the 99.9 percent of the country lying beyond it.

      Regardless, it's a little early in the season to complain about missing storms.

      Delete
  81. Carol Cheryl Cristal Cherlene November 8, 2014 at 11:39 AM

    "...The Bering Sea Rule leads me to anticipate a major warmup late in the month followed by a high wind event..."

    Carol Cheryl Cristal Cherlene November 13, 2014 at 4:43 PM

    "...the intensity and positioning of the system in the Bering Sea does point to a strong system lifting across the Midwest and Great Lakes at some point during early/mid Thanksgiving week. It likely brings a significant warmup followed by gusty winds and maybe another notable temperature plunge."

    http://imgur.com/SMo1mak

    ;o

    ReplyDelete
  82. CCCC you are a genius!

    ReplyDelete
  83. Keep an eye on Thanksgiving storm trending west and the trend is your friend.

    ReplyDelete
  84. You have given up hope CCCC just keep the faith! How bad do you think the winds will get and it says Monday? Will it go to a warning?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No hope surrendered here, but its going to take a massive shift west to put us in the game.

      The winds are marginal for a warning so I have no input on that for now.

      Delete
  85. Some of the big boys ( big boys are people like JB and DT ) are saying December is going to have a pull back from the cold for the first half. I know DT said the same thing for November.. what could they be looking at to make that call?

    ReplyDelete
  86. Seriously, how do you do much better for a forecast than this:

    "FROM A LARGE SCALE PATTERN…THIS HAS ALL THE MAKINGS OF A HISTORIC OR AT LEAST WELL REMEMBERED LAKE EFFECT EVENT…WITH SNOW TOTALS EXCEEDING 3 FEET IN SOME AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. THE 24 HR/36+ INCH EVENT IN 12/1995 FOR KBUF IS HARD TO BEAT…BUT SOME LOCATIONS MAY REACH THIS VALUE TO THE SOUTH. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

    FOR LAKE ERIE…AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE…EXPECT A VERY TIGHT NORTHERN GRADIENT WITH SNOW LIKELY REACHING BUFFALO/KBUF…BUT POSSIBLY BARELY GRAZING THE NORTHTOWNS. THIS IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO NAIL DOWN…AND WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE NORTHTOWNS AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. MEANWHILE…AREAS EAST OF BUFFALO…THE MAIN INTERCHANGES OF THE THRUWAY TO THE SOUTH…AND THE SOUTHTOWNS SHOULD TAKE A HARD HIT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR FEET OF SNOW…WITH MAJOR DISRUPTIONS TO TRAFFIC AS SNOW RATES FAR EXCEED THE ABILITY TO KEEP ROADS CLEAR. WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF LOCALIZED 3-5 INCH/HR SNOW RATES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THUNDERSNOW. AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY…THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE ALONG CHAUTAUQUA TO THE BOSTON HILLS…BUT AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS WILL GET INTO THE SNOW BAND LATER TUESDAY NIGHT."

    And there was little to no indication that the final numbers would be as extreme as they ended up being. Where is this "state weather system" going to get their information from anyway? If the manner in which Cuomo's administration handled the Thruway is any indication then this is going to be an absolute clown show.

    ReplyDelete
  87. Hope is gone officially CCCC storm will be far east. Think this may be the norm this winter for us.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That is the norm every year Anon.

      Delete
  88. I seem to remember having this exact same conversation last Thanksgiving...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yep. You did. And it turned into an overnight 6 or so if I recall. You called it well in advance.

      Delete
    2. I'm not so sure this time around with most of the ensemble members sitting east of the operational Euro.

      Delete
  89. The extended forecasts on Wunderground and Accuweather (not that I put much faith in their local forecasts) show at or below normal temperatures after this Tuesday through 12/1.

    Oh and as for Cuomo calling out the NWS for blowing the forecast, the facts will prove otherwise.

    Andy

    ReplyDelete
  90. Any update about winds tomorrow

    ReplyDelete
  91. Watch upgraded to Warning, no change in forecasted gusts. 60 mph possible.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Of course it's going to be windy tomorrow--- it's trash day. Never fails :)

      Andy

      Delete
  92. EURO operational stands alone bringing decent snow to ROC midweek. EURO ensembles, JMA & Chinese side w/ GFS & Canadian keeping threat east.

    My bet is to far East of us to give us any snow.

    ReplyDelete
  93. I can see a light snowfall gracing us as we remain on the fringe. The greatest threat by far is definitely east though, probably eastern NY and parts of central NY.

    ReplyDelete

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