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Sunday, December 7

A LONG, SNOWY TRIP IT MAY BE...

Written By:  Scott Hetsko

Good evening Winter storm fans!  We got our very first region wide snow fall on the way for the middle and end of this week.  While there is still some uncertainty on the exact track of this developing coastal storm, there little debate that it will run into lots of traffic up the Northway and thus be a slow mover.  Slow moving lows over Eastern NY usually spell significant snow numbers for Rochester.

Below is the expected surface set up for the period Tuesday through Thursday.


Notice how the system is forecast only to move about 300 to 400 miles over two days.  Lake Ontario will feed plenty of additional moisture South over our region beginning Wednesday afternoon through early Friday.  Winds will pick up, gusting over 30 mph at times as the storm crawls past Thursday.  While I won't issue specific snow totals until we are much closer to the onset, below lists the likely impacts from this storm.  Now go forth and prognosticate, banter, nay say...etc.

EXPECTED STORM IMPACTS:


77 comments:

  1. One thing I do not understand is that he states snow totals high but 12 or more is only moderate. To me high snow totals are only over 12". Anything under 12 is not high to me. Just saying.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I took that to mean a moderate chance of 12". And not all 12" are the same. If this is over 2 days. It's a manageable snow fall.

      Personally, I think the main reason not everyone would call it manageable is the possibility the snow is a wet heavy snow.

      Delete
  2. Hard to believe that snow totals would be less than 12" for a storm that will last 48 hours. That means it would only snow .25" per hour. I know it will not snow every minute and it will come in different intensities but with help from the lake and abundant Atlantic moisture 6-12 seems low.

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  3. I think the 6-12 seems to high this could have surprise bust all over it based on the uncertainty.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Really!!? And we should believe an anonymous posters prediction, why?

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    2. Ignore Anon 7:56AM. He is not looking at the models obviously.

      Delete
  4. The fact that he wrote "to" rather than "too" destroys all credibility in my book.
    --Jay in Greece--

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  5. Latest NAM way East.

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  6. Anon 10:09am, I don't know any other way to put this, but you really might want to get your eyes checked...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ignore Anon 10:09. He is just trying to get a rise out of us. He is not looking at the models.

      Delete
  7. Huh? What is Ext.? And what does it mean that the storm will be "high"ly manageable?

    I got an anxiety attack from JN last night. He was jumping up and down with his "hilltop to lakeshore" snow predictions. Get those ratings up!

    Then watched MM on 13, and he was like... yep, it's going to snow.

    How is it that 13 can have us in the 50s by Sunday, and 10 says barely in the 40s (unless you look at their ticker at the bottom of 10.2 which says something completely different from their forecast!)

    OK it is going to snow. Dear channel 10 --- stop jumping up and down. Just tell us the weather and be matter-of-fact.

    And Scott, revise your bar graph so it is clearer.

    ReplyDelete
  8. I took Ext to be Extreme.

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  9. Does anyone know what the latest GFS showed? We are close where we should be able to say things with some accuracy? CCCC must still be sleeping.

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  10. So the 48-hour Storm will be extreme, is that how we are to read the chart. Sort of makes you begin to think if we will experience what Buffalo and towns to the West experienced. Still waiting for snow predictions -- at least give us something so those who need to plan, can begin to do so.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We aren't getting 7 feet of snow...more like 7 inches on the low end of things.

      Delete
  11. If the prediction is for an extreme 48-hour Storm -- why do we just have Winter Storm Watch -- when will it go to Warning; and how about a Blizzard. Have not see there will be a Blizzard in the Flower City in the next .... Mark it down yet.

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  12. When will Warnings go up?

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  13. We're going to have to wait for the 12z Euro, but barring any set backs, this looks to me like a 8-14" type deal with some higher amounts with some help from the lake. However, I'm no expert and this is where News 8 trumps all the models as they have the experience/expertise on how to handle these systems...

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  14. What time is the 12z Euro Weatherguy? Where is CCCC very nervous about his lack of presence makes me think he has low faith in this storm?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I can't post to the blog from work. Lunch break is the only opportunity I get.

      Delete
  15. Some important bits from the NWS discussion:

    "EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH POTENTIAL STORM TOTALS IN THE 6 TO 12 INCH RANGE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE DUE TO UPSLOPING AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT. SNOW WILL ALSO IMPACT THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SNOW AMOUNTS IS LOWER IN THESE AREAS."

    "THE GGEM STILL APPEARS A BIT WEST (TOO WET) OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE OPERATIONAL NAM A BIT EAST (TOO DRY). IN TERMS OF SYNOPTIC POSITION FORECAST GENERALLY PREFERS A BLEND OF THE SREF/ECMWF WHICH ARE CLOSE TO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN."

    "A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT...AND THIS WILL NOT BE CAPTURED BY LOWER RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. EVENTUALLY...COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THIS WILL BE A PROLONGED LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT WHERE SNOW WILL LINGER ALL THE WAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE A BIT INLAND FROM THE LAKES...FROM THE ROCHESTER AREA SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY."

    High-res guidance now appears to be picking up on the effects of lake enhancement.

    ReplyDelete
  16. CCCC you work I thought you were in college? So just saw your post and you said 7 inches of snow so I say this is a NBD storm.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You must not have read the part where I said "on the low end of things," which matches up with the initial forecasts so far.

      I'm still enrolled in college but part of my program entails working full time for a certain number of weeks.

      Delete
  17. RC on 10 said this morning on 10.2 that we probably won't see heavy snow out of this, but long periods of light to moderate snow.

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  18. SREF/ECMWF

    English, please?

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  19. I do not know but it seemed like if we get the track Scott posted here and talked about last night, he felt this is a perfect track for a lot of snow in Rochester with the lake becoming a player. So who knows but maybe we will get a foot.

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    Replies
    1. And it will mostly melt this weekend/next week.

      Delete
    2. This is not a snarky quip so much as it is a general observation: no one cares that it's going to melt.

      Delete
  20. KW tweeted saying this storm does have a high bust potential.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Before the rush of naysayers jumps all over this comment: this speaks to the complicated and still highly uncertain nature of the setup, not any sort of recent trend.

      Delete
    2. Correct. I should have said that. Thanks CCC.

      Delete
  21. This has bust written all over it and I said it yesterday and got blasted.

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  22. I said bust yesterday because the LP is not all that strong and does not have copious amounts of moisture. Plus there is not a lot of cold air the temps are marginal. These along with a cut off low and great track uncertainty creates a huge bust. Thank-you!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. None of that creates a bust, it creates uncertainty. And this thing will have PLENTY of moisture to work with.

      Delete
  23. Anyone know what the latest Euro run showed? I also thought Scott would have an update based on new data?

    ReplyDelete
  24. Experts
    Twitter



    1h
    Rich Caniglia ✔ @whec_rcaniglia

    Have a great afternoon. Get the latest on the storm from Kevin Williams tonight at 5,6 and 11


    Expand




    3h
    NOAA ✔ @NOAA

    Just in: #November was 16th coldest on record for contig USA per @NOAANCDC #StateOfClimate http://1.usa.gov/1w6IWYX pic.twitter.com/MPMHnKOrzc


    Retweeted by Rich Caniglia



    Show Photo




    2h
    Kevin Williams ✔ @whec_kwilliams

    No significant wx issues are expected in ROC through most of tomorrow. Most of the action takes place Wed-Thu.


    Expand


    Kevin Williams @whec_kwilliams

    Shoveling seems a good bet in ROC Wed-Thu, but this highly complicated storm system means an unusually high bust potential.


    ReplyDelete
  25. It looks like the Euro if verifies is a great run for us. This storm moves very little in 48 hours. It stalls in NYC area and the temps look cold. That is what I see but I am not an expert.

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  26. WSW for the counties east of has been issued!

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  27. 8-12 INCHES IN 48 HOURS. For a WSW does it not have to fall within a certain period of time.

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  28. Important to keep in mind that the 6-12 inches of snow will be over an extended period of time; not 12" in one day. Winter Storm Warning is not for our area; only a Watch still. As Scott said, only get milk and bread.

    ReplyDelete
  29. Basic question -- what is the difference between a "Winter Storm Watch" and "Winter Storm Warning". Read both, and it seems the only difference is the amount of snow? Basic terms to understand better -- thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Winter Storm Watch: significant winter weather has at least a 50% chance of occurring.
      Winter Storm Warning: significant winter weather is imminent or already occurring.

      They both have the same snowfall criteria: 7+ inches within 12 hours or 9+ inches within 24 hours. This one may turn into more of an extended advisory event despite significant totals, but that comes down to semantics more than anything.

      Delete
    2. Thanks it does helps to clarify, and thank you for keeping it in term that were easy to understand.

      Delete
  30. SREF converging on a range of 6-12 inches, just as the forecasts are saying. A few holdout members want to either slam us or shaft us, but they can be safely discounted at this point. Meanwhile the NAM has no idea what it wants to do...I'd say toss it aside for now as well.

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  31. 6-12 over 48 hours is NBD at all. In fact that is light snow.

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  32. The Chautauqua Ridge could sneak into being the biggest winner of this whole ordeal. Lake enhancement + substantial orographic enhancement + colder air = major boost in totals.

    ReplyDelete
  33. This storm is a joke. KW the biggest over reactor says 6 inches in Rochester (WOW). Not sure why anyone even says winter storm.

    ReplyDelete
  34. Yeah I hear ya. 6" over 48 hours is a non-storm to me. Winter weather advisories at most.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Still enough snow to fire up my new snow blower. I'll take it.

      And CCCC was dead on. No one (essentially) cares that it will melt thos weekend.

      Every storm. We root for the great White hope.

      Delete
  35. Please see my 1:09pm post that says it all. I know CCCC says it has plenty of moisture but this storm is weak and has not enough cold air to work with.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Maybe if you say both of those things enough times they'll become true. Because a big pool of 850s ranging between -4C and -8C isn't cold enough? And literally no one is talking about moisture being a problem except for you, there are flood watches along the coast FFS.

      Delete
  36. NBD on this one...I sensed this all along unfortunately. Dutch oven will have to wait for the next one for now

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The fake Snowdog arrives again.

      Delete
  37. I can sense a bit of disappointment brewing that KW didn't forecast something other than what's been indicated consistently for the past two days. Modeled amounts never deviated too far from the 6-12 inch range, and we've known for days now that it's going to fall over an extended time period, so that's what is being indicated in the forecasts.

    ReplyDelete
  38. The disappointment is that we in the Rochester area will see the 6. I thought maybe the foot or more would be possible here. Yes I did see the statements a foot or MORE was being said a few days ago.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That was a blanket statement packed to the hilt with uncertainty, and blatantly included the word "possible." And it's still "possible" in select areas. Getting your hopes up will always lead to disappointment.

      Delete
  39. Just want to remind people that the storm hasn't even happened yet...

    ReplyDelete
  40. Isn't 6-12 over a 48 hour time frame a decent snow amount for early December?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It absolutely is. And it's happening in the middle of what was supposed to be a crappy pattern for snow.

      Delete
  41. CCCC is it even worth looking at the GFS and Euro model runs tonight?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Why wouldn't it be? Don't let a few people pooh-poohing KW's forecast get you down.

      Delete
  42. Just thought we are now at storm time and nothing will change.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. oh

      yes it's still worth it to check the GFS and Euro, probably through tomorrow's 12z runs

      Delete
  43. So annoying with all the negativity and bust crap. 6-12 is fine by me. Some expect a blockbuster every time the news talks about a storm. Since we have bare ground we should thankful for any amount. I'll take my kids sledding on our back hill. Our new house has an Awesome sledding hill. Its not so awesome to mow in summer time though :-)

    ReplyDelete
  44. CCCC- Will any schools be closed Wednesday? How about in the southern tier?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I doubt it. If anything after school activities cancel wed after school. Possibly close Thurs if storm overperforms. imo

      Delete
  45. I would agree with above anonymous. Timing doesn't seem like a closing on Wednesday would be warranted. Thursday would be a stretch also unless we get a ton overnight Wednesday. And this is coming from a teacher who wouldn't mind a random day off ;-) just keeping it real.

    ReplyDelete
  46. Oh NAM you silly silly girl...

    http://i.imgur.com/Zb70vnX.gif

    In all seriousness that thing would make the folks at the Eggo factory proud. Having way too much difficulty with the backside deformation zone to be taken seriously right now.

    ReplyDelete
  47. Ha ha the NAM back and forth but usually is not bad short range?

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  48. Scotty with the lake enhanced weenie zone right near my apartment...nice.

    Let's not forget that there's going to be a good amount of wind with this thing.

    ReplyDelete

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