Get your daily dose of weather news

with Scott Hetsko, Chief Meteorologist

RSS FEED SUBSCRIBE BY EMAIL

Our weather blog brings you expert perspective on the latest weather news. Our weather experts share the inside scoop with blog entries from the studio and from the field. Check out the latest weather news and storm coverage in our most recent blog entries.

Tuesday, December 9

TURNS SNOWY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY


Written By:  Scott Hetsko

Upcoming snow fall appears on track to begin late overnight and early Wednesday for the region.  Initially a wet snow will transition to a drier snow Wednesday night and Thursday.  Low pressure will strengthen early Wednesday which will throw snow back into Western New York.  Light to at times moderate snow will fall much of Wednesday.  

It will be quite breezy as the pressure gradient tightens Wednesday afternoon and evening.  Totals for most will range between 6-10" with some higher amounts possible in Northern Monroe county as well as the higher elevations South of the thruway.  Still expecting milder weather to return later in the weekend to melt this round of snow before Christmas.

123 comments:

  1. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2014120918/nam4km_asnow_neus_21.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw/2014120912/wrf-arw_asnow_neus_47.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-nmm/2014120912/wrf-nmm_asnow_neus_47.png

    The amounts on these high-res models are obviously highly suspect, but they should suppress any doubts people might be having. By the way, BGM lowered their forecast totals today because the warm advection was more robust than originally indicated, which is something we will not need to worry about. All of the current forecasts still appear to be on track to verify.

    ReplyDelete
  2. So are you saying the snow fall amount forecast by Scott is off? If not, why post these additional links?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "All of the current forecasts still appear to be on track to verify." AKA: Scott's forecast is NOT off. I posted those links to suppress the doubts that were rising markedly in the last thread, they amount to pure eye candy but still demonstrate that we are currently in little to no danger of seeing a "bust."

      Delete
  3. I've never seen the term "glomming" used to describe what the precipitation is doing, but that's the term I see being used to describe the snowfall in Albany right now. Very heavy precipitation finally managed to cool the surface enough for about an hour of giant sloppy flakes. They had previously been all rain.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As opposed to Rochester where people are glooming.

      Delete
    2. And I can't for the life of me figure out why...

      Delete
    3. Maybe has something to do with the Mayor.

      Delete
  4. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_72hr/prb_72hsnow_50prcntil_2014121000f072.gif

    ReplyDelete
  5. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 9, 2014 at 6:42 PM

    Is it the radar imagery creating a near perfect line of precipitation along I-81 or is the moisture wall that precise?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That is the actual precipitation wall, and it was actually modeled quite well over the past few days...just in all of the wrong spots.

      Delete
    2. All of the wrong spots until the most recent runs that is.

      Delete
  6. Before someone comes and hijacks my name again, I will spew a few thoughts. I definitely don't say bust on this one, but I think mini-bust. I think we were all hyped up to the tune of 10-15" and now I believe it'll be more like 5-7". Still measurable snow though, hence mini-bust. Do hope I'm wrong, but I just don't see this thing blowing up over WNY tomorrow. Fingers crossed and enjoy watching tomorrow everyone.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If it's any consolation, WPC is still hyped up to the tune of 10-15"

      Delete
  7. I don't know. The storm does not look that strong right now and that precipitation is not moving that far West right now.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Central pressure is below 998 mb and the precipitation was never supposed to move very much until very late tonight...

      Delete
  8. As un-special as our totals will be, the duration given in this part of the Advisory text isn't something you see too often around here:

    "ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN AN INCH OVERNIGHT...3 TO 5 INCHES WEDNESDAY...3 TO 5 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...1 TO 3 INCHES THURSDAY...AND AN INCH OR LESS THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO 60 HOUR STORM TOTALS OF 8 TO 14 INCHES."

    I've also noticed that the forecasted totals have been inching upward since mid afternoon...

    ReplyDelete
  9. If in your eyes, you see it as a mini-bust, bust, or the big one, we all come here for insight on snow and winter storms. It's time to watch the snow outside and the the professionals do the best they can. Kudos News 8, you look to be right on!

    ReplyDelete
  10. I am interested to see if the 00z model trends follows earlier trends, increased amounts into western NY. It appears that the advisory areas will receive more snowfall than in most of the warning areas. I would not be surprised if some of the highest storm totals are on 104 corridor in Orleans, Monroe, and Wayne counties.

    ReplyDelete
  11. For the record the above was not me. I don't talk like that. Im excited about our upcoming snow. I said I wouldn't post again but I had to honor my name. CCCC: how easy is it to create an account like you did so we can put an end to this post hijacking?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I believe you just set up a burner Google Plus account. Log into google plus. Then post.

      Delete
    2. Super easy, just make a Google+ account and select "Google Account" from the dropdown menu before you post. And stay logged into the account obviously.

      Delete
  12. This bit from CTP's discussion says everything you need to know about how today went for folks south of us...

    "DO NOT ENVY THE CREW THAT HAD TO FORECAST THIS STORM THE LAST FEW DAYS. ARRIVED THIS AFTERNOON AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OFF AND AM STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT`S GOING ON."

    ReplyDelete
  13. CCCC, I know you will probably say let's get through storm first, but other than the seven days forecast looking warmer, what can we anticipate temperature wise etc in the coming weeks? Is consistent cold actually coming to stay?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Colder by Christmas week, not sure it'll be consistent but it won't be fleeting. Nothing too pronounced either but I'm sure nobody wants that, plus it may increase our chances for snow.

      Delete
  14. I dont understand why they are saying 60 hour storm totals will be 8-14 inches...it will only be a 36 hour storm if at that where most of the accumulation takes place.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Additional nuisance accumulations after the steadier stuff.

      Delete
  15. I'm not 4 C's but I don't think we are looking at a colder pattern until at least Xmas week.

    ReplyDelete
  16. People are going to wake up tomorrow, see how crappy the radar looks and break out the "bust" labels yet again. Fear not ye anxious masses...

    http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html
    http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_qc_00/accum/SN_000-048_0000.gif

    ...it's going to be okay.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Your right CCC. The radar does not look impressive at all. It looks like the system has fallen apart. I trust the experts though that this will fill in eventually.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Why are all these advisories being upgraded to warnings?? Snowdog said the System was falling apart last night. Was he wrong???

    ReplyDelete
  19. The computer model predicting time and accumulations that RC showed this morning give us 12-14 inches by 5:00pm tomorrow in the Rochester area. Think this going to over achieve and we will get lake enhancement. RC said a strong north wind. I believe that puts the metro in a good spot.

    ReplyDelete
  20. The system is not "falling apart" and will fill back in during today. From the latest KBUF AFD:

    "BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE MENTIONED ABOVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ALL THE WAY AROUND THE TOP OF THE CLOSED LOW INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. OVERNIGHT WILL BE PRIME TIME LOCATIONS FROM ROCHESTER WEST TO BUFFALO AND SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN TIER TO GET BETTER SNOWFALL RATES / AND THUS THE BULK OF THEIR ACCUMULATIONS."

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This is going to even reach the southern tier CCCC? When will it begin to fill in, afternoon time?

      Delete
    2. Yep, afternoon. I'd wager that the southern tier sees lesser snowfall rates than the city though.

      Delete
    3. Agreed! I live is Sparta but work down here in Bath. We are seeing a very fine snow. Steady, but very fine.
      Chris

      Delete
  21. I'm sticking with my prediction of 9.7" from yesterday.

    NWS discussion

    "LATEST RUNS OF
    THE NAM / HIRES ARW / SREF ALL POINT TO A SIMILAR EVOLUTION OF THE
    HEAVIER SNOW...WITH THE BEST SNOW RATES DURING THE DAY TODAY FROM
    SYRACUSE ACROSS THE ROCHESTER."

    http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on

    ReplyDelete
  22. lol...

    "ACROSS THE ROCHESTER"

    CAN YOU SMELL-ELELELELEL
    WHAT THE ROCHESTER
    IS
    COOKIN'

    ReplyDelete
  23. CCCC is that right with the strong northerly wind it helps areas close to the lake and metro?

    ReplyDelete
  24. Please go back and look at my posts from yesterday 12:12 and 12:57 under the previous post. It was in regards to the storm being stronger and a great deal of moisture catching up from the Atlantic. Also the winds will be strong.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Nobody wants to look up an anon by time from another thread. If you want credit, take a name. Not intending to be snarky.

      Delete
    2. Jealousy by Spreadsheet Guy

      Delete
  25. So is RC predicting 14+ inches of now by Thursday morning? While others are forecasting 6-10 or 8-12 -- it makes you wonder who is correct. If RC is correct, plan to get up clear and shoveling to get to work. Now just waiting for the prediction of "Blizzard in the Flower City" in ____ hours or day Mark it down!!!

    ReplyDelete
  26. There will be a Blizzard if the Flower City in the next 24 hours!! Mark it down!!

    ReplyDelete
  27. The radar is starting to fill in quite a bit with heavier snows north of Rochester

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Charles is commenting on this one.

      Game on!

      Delete
    2. Who is Charles?

      Delete
    3. I used to post on here all the time until my wife got sick last year I'm just now getting back into here and I figured this storm would be the best time to do so

      Delete
    4. I can't even imagine what it's been like. I do know it's great to see you around again. I always enjoy your insights.

      Delete
    5. Good to see you back Charles!
      Chris

      Delete
    6. Glad your back Charles!
      Doug

      Delete
  28. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 10, 2014 at 8:43 AM

    So the forecast went from a storm starting Tuesday of 12+" to a BUST to a storm starting tonight/tomorrow of 12+"

    Why don't we just ask a Magic 8-ball next time........

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Chris now in Penfield <-- real oneDecember 10, 2014 at 7:52 PM

      Ha! I finally got impostered. I feel like I have truly arrived.

      Delete
  29. I am not an expert but there looks to be a ton of moisture if it all wraps around. The deformation band looks really strong over the lake into the city south? Am I wrong CCCC?

    ReplyDelete
  30. Here we go...everyone is getting hyped up again...Yes, the radar looks impressive but I think you are all forgetting this is a WEAK SYSTEM! It is not going to last to wrap into WNY and give us a foot of snow. It is going to break apart this afternoon/evening and become spotty snow showers.....NBD sorry folks! Next time maybe!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sorry anon save the keystrokes. Without a name the content of your posts are ignored.

      Delete
    2. Perhaps we should ignore your posts too.

      Delete
    3. I'm not making a prediction! If I were then I'd sign it! Do the same or you get ignored!

      Delete
  31. Sitting here in Greece, and this storm is already awesome! Looking forward to using my new snow blower finally, I love this :)

    ReplyDelete
  32. Henrietta- you can still see the ground in places. It's like snowglobe snow.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Welcome back Charles. I think we are going to find that the mets did a great job with a tough forecast on this one. It may over-perform slightly being a little conservative on a challenging forecast such as this one is the way to do it. Time to enjoy the snow.

    ReplyDelete
  34. Have to admit, even though the roads are not the best on some of the street; it does look pretty outside, as NYcowboy stated like a snowglobe.

    ReplyDelete
  35. Radar seems to be breaking up and coming to an end quickly?

    ReplyDelete
  36. Replies
    1. Everybody. Return your bread now!

      Delete
  37. Just a friendly reminder: DON'T FEED THE TROLLS! ;-)

    ReplyDelete
  38. It'll be coming to an end quickly if you live in Syracuse...

    2 or 3 inches so far where I am, rough estimate. The heavier deformation snows continue to shift westward and still appear on schedule to arrive by sunset. Lake enhancement has clearly been the rule today and may have been under-forecasted all along.

    ReplyDelete
  39. Yes the Trolls are annoying. All the mets said this morning the heavier snow will be later this afternoon and after midnight. So we will just have to wait and see. Like I said the computer snow prediction model that RC showed this morning had the city at almost 14 inches by the time the storm is done. Not sure if it would be that far off when we are in the storm basically. Maybe CCCC can shed some light on what he feels since we are now casting.

    ReplyDelete
  40. 4 inches so far in Irondequoit and still snowing hard.

    ReplyDelete
  41. You can still see the tops of the grass blades in Henrietta. It is snowing a bit harder now than at 10:15, though. Roads still clearish. Hope they stay good when I drive home at 3:30.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Try having to work until 6:30pm tonight and see what the road will be like then. Anticipate a long ride home.

      Delete
  42. I know it is the NAM but their latest run has us in the 16-18 inch range if I am reading it correctly. Plus on radar there looks like a huge wall of precipitation to our NE coming after the current one?

    ReplyDelete
  43. NWS Discussion: "Still holding onto the winter storm warnings as
    accumulations centered across the Genesee Valley will average 6-12
    inches. Across far western New York and southeast and east of Lake
    Ontario just 3-6 inches expected so have continued with the advisory.

    The forecast for what to expect behind this leading band of snow is
    very difficult. Observations have not verified well against previous
    model solutions so confidence is low in hanging on to steady
    snowfall behind the above mentioned snow band. Radars across
    southern New England are showing some blossoming of snow toward
    eastern New York but feel this plume of moisture and its driving
    shortwave trough will follow a trajectory around the upper closed low
    and shift across northern New York into southern Ontario. For now
    have just keep a chance pop in play for tonight behind the westward
    tracking snow band. Will continue to monitor and may update based on
    future observation. "

    Crossing Fingers

    ReplyDelete
  44. Snowfall rates look like they will slacken and scatter for a few hours before becoming steadier and heavier again after sunset. Shortwave energy is still rounding the upper low and that should give us another round of steady snowfall during the nighttime hours.

    I have 7 inches so far in Webster, by the time all is said and done I should easily exceed a foot.

    ReplyDelete
  45. Nice, only about 4-5 in Clarkson so far but it has picked up in intensity within the past hour. It was funny watching an undercover cop in a rear wheel drive dodge charger trying to drive down 104. Fishtailing everywhere! Wrong car dude

    ReplyDelete
  46. It looks like t is breaking up to the East. Will that fill in. 10" in Gananda so far. Pretty good.

    ReplyDelete
  47. Syracuse got smacked and they are expecting another big glob coming on the radar. CCCC what do you think I believe it will snow harder over night and snow until at least noon tomorrow. this storm retrograded back and blew up and grabbing a lot of Atlantic moisture.

    ReplyDelete
  48. Scott and the NWS said it will fill in and snow harder this evening and tonight.

    ReplyDelete
  49. We can still see the grass here in Wayland

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Is it greener rhere?

      Delete
  50. This suppose to be slow moving and if you look at radar big swath still to come. CCCC been quiet and no other veteran bloggers like Weatherguy and others. CCCC may be having dinner and a cocktail.

    ReplyDelete
  51. Looks like 6-8 inches in Farmington by looking at hot tub cover on deck. Not much wind behind house so I trust that spot. Looks like ton of moisture left to come. Even if it stopped now we got the low end of the forecast already so the rest is bonus time! Enjoy it before it melts this weekend.

    ReplyDelete
  52. Farmington you do agree that the radar shows still a great deal of moisture coming?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes after watching news 8 at 4 it looked like there was way more to come than we have had so far. KW says 4-8 overnight. I am thinking it will be on the high end of that, maybe more. If the blog behaves maybe more( if it were only that easy). :-)

      Delete
  53. Looks like storm is starting to fizzle out. Thought this was a 2 day duration storm?

    ReplyDelete
  54. I recommend for everyone to look at the radar in about 2 hours as it is going to take a while for the moisture to meander into our neck of the woods again,..

    ReplyDelete
  55. Good to hear from Weatherguy. So Weatherguy you say the snow will return around 8:00 in the city? Will it then snow all night because it radar potentialdoes look impressive to our NE.

    ReplyDelete
  56. Every simulated radar I've seen shows the snow picking up again this evening and lasting for several hours.

    ReplyDelete
  57. We have about 8 inches here in Irondequoit and it is still coming down very steadily. I think there is a good chance that the lakeshore communities will see a total between 14 and 18 inches by the time we are all said and done tomorrow afternoon.

    ReplyDelete
  58. All the busters must be out shoveling? I'll probably pay for that comment but I had to

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Just went outside and measured another inch of "too far east" on my car.

      Delete
    2. Unfortunately for them we r forecasted for several more inches of bust overnight.

      Delete
    3. We are spectators once again...of snow falling in our backyards.

      Delete
  59. Yeah CCCC, agreed. Places are going to easily exceed a foot, And I'm really interested to see if KROC still has the same clowns measuring snow this year!?

    ReplyDelete
  60. KW had 12-18 from city on north and 8-12 for rest.

    ReplyDelete
  61. This blog is surprisingly quiet considering all the doom yesterday.

    ReplyDelete
  62. I was out snow blowing. This stuff is pretty heavy and wet so even with snow blower it was a good work out.

    ReplyDelete
  63. Radar not that impressive. Have not and do not see that deformation band CCCC and others have mentioned. Honestly to the snow has not come down heavy at all mostly light all day just keeping it real.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Try looking at the radar over the Adirondacks region, much of that is going to spill down to us. It's not really a deformation band though.

      Delete
  64. I saw a weather guy named Matt on news 8 at noon today! Is he the mythical guy talked about on another thread??

    ReplyDelete
  65. It is too bad that deformation band never set-up like the models showed oh well.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Done shoveling your way out of the troll cave yet?

      Delete
  66. Chris now in Penfield <-- real oneDecember 10, 2014 at 7:59 PM

    It's the real Chris now in Penfield. I drove from Wayne Co. to Albany today. Schools started closing around noon in central and eastern Wayne Co. Roads were in rough shape, with easily 4 or 5" of greasy, wet, slippery snow. Once on the Thruway, it was pretty smooth sailing except for one stretch between SYR and Utica. Snowfall totals across NYS vary greatly - there are places in the Mohawk Valley with an 1" or less...Albany has 6-8", and Syracuse got it pretty good too (5-7"). Round two on the radar already showing up here, though it is quiet right now.

    ReplyDelete
  67. Not trolling just stating this is winding down another 3 hours you can see the shield clearing up NE of us.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php

      Definitely a troll. The only "clearing" is still over 150 miles away.

      Delete
    2. yeah clearing NE....maybe east of Syracuse which is a ways away. Plenty of radar to reach us yet. Every storm has to wind down sometime not sure why you think it is done for us in 3 hours thougn?

      Delete
  68. How fast is it moving?

    ReplyDelete
  69. I am sorry I am looking at the radar and it ids moving fast and there are big dry slots. Do not some will get a foot or more about 6 tops for most.

    ReplyDelete
  70. From the NWS:

    AT 900 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF
    HEAVY SNOW ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY MOVING WEST. MODERATE SNOW IS
    ALREADY FALLING ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SNOW WILL INTENSIFY AS THIS
    AREA MOVES IN WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE
    ONTARIO FROM ROCHESTER TO WEEDSPORT. THIS WILL LOWER VISIBILITY TO A
    QUARTER MILE AT TIMES...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH AN HOUR.

    ReplyDelete
  71. Come on Snowdog you are being optimistic? Wow we must be in for snow all night ha ha

    ReplyDelete
  72. News 8 update post?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks Scott do you think schools will be open?

      Delete
  73. KROC is up to 6 inches as of 7pm. My call of 8.4 inches is going to be far too low.

    ReplyDelete
  74. The updated Warning just bumped the lower end of the range up a few inches...now 10-16 with 4-7 overnight.

    Rates slowly increasing in Webster despite wimpy looking radar returns.

    ReplyDelete
  75. Airport will end up with about 12" but many others will reach 15" after the next period of snow picks up in the next few hours.

    ReplyDelete

Blog Archive