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Wednesday, February 11

Uncle!

Written by: Stacey Pensgen

For those of you who were complaining about our lack of winter back in December - shame on you! Man, February means business! Since the month started, it has been one hit after another. Several pretty decent sized snows, clipper after clipper opening up the flood gates for arctic air to pour into the area. And the beat goes on. Wind chill watches are posted for Friday morning, probably will be changed to advisories by Thursday morning. Wind chills likely reaching -15 to -25 at the the peak on Friday morning. Then comes Saturday/Sunday. Yet another clipper draws in yet another even colder arctic airmass, the coldest air we've felt this season, and in quite some time, I believe. We struggle to make it above zero on Sunday without the wind! Factor in the tight pressure gradient between a bombing out coastal storm impact New England and high pressure to the west, and you  have the recipe for warning criteria wind chills on Sunday, feeling -20 to -30°.

Oh yeah, then there's the snow. Some snow, at least. It looks like we'll have enough moisture following the arctic front on Thursday for some organized disorganized ("fingers") of lake snow off of a northerly flow on Thursday - a few inches for most of us, then area-wide light snow on Saturday, followed by a little more lake snow Sunday. Snowfall amounts will be minor, but the impacts from the cold are major. Had enough? No? How about another blast of arctic air following another storm mid-late next week. Yes, it's still a week away but at this point, February is already nearly 8° colder than average, and averages 17.1°, putting it 7th coldest February in Rochester. With all that said, Boston still beats us with their winter blues!

152 comments:

  1. HI Stacey. Thanks for the update. The NWS has several inches for Thursday through Friday. On the order of 3-5 for areas North of The Thruway and then more for the weekend. Is that accurate? Scott last night said the lake effect could pile up North of the Thruway on Sunday as well. Thanks

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    1. Just rough numbers, but I'm betting some areas will see another 6" between this evening and Sunday evening. Some more, some a little less. Again, kind of "bits and pieces."

      Stacey

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  2. First!.....Marry me Stacey!

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    1. Depends - which "anonymous" are you?? J/k - flattered, but taken 😍

      Stacey

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    2. Leaving Anon 8:50 in the cold.
      Like the rest of Western NY.

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    3. Haha, darn it...You're a true beauty Stacey!...And an amazing figure skater :p

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  3. Hate the cold it is useless.

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    1. Useless to you maybe... but it's absolutely vital in order for the planet to maintain homeostasis. Just saying! Everything has it's reasons.

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  4. There will be a Blizzard in The Flower City within the next 8 days. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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    Replies
    1. You were sorta right about the one last Sunday/Monday! So I'm not gonna bet against you on the next one either! LOL!!!

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    2. What you are predicting one for this Sunday/Monday -- come on. You are disappointing me on you who predicts Blizzards in the Flower City.

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    3. What you are not predicting a blizzard for the Flower City this Sunday into Monday. Come on -- Flower City Blizzard Predictor -- you can do better than 8 days.

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    4. Blizzard Wizard: The Gift That Keeps On Giving

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    5. Chris now in PenfieldFebruary 11, 2015 at 6:34 PM

      It never ceases to make my day.

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  5. Heard we can expect this cold temperature for the next week or so. Are others seeing the same. Worried about pipe, remember last year with polar vortex, and the # of water pipes bursting -- hopefully many have learned and prepared for such.

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  6. Reading that we can expect another Winter Storm for Sunday into Tuesday of next week. CCCC what are you seeing, and if so, when do you feel Advisories, Watches, and Warnings will go up -- Saturday?

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    1. "Expect" is kind of a strong word since we're talking about something that's still a week away. Definitely way too early to be talking about headlines. I'm siding with a decent chance of some sort of impact here though.

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  7. The deep cold pattern may ease up a few weeks from now. Still no sign of a mild pattern anytime soon though.

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  8. I think there will be some advisory snows from tomorrow through Sunday, in my opinion. System snows plus lake effect.

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    Replies
    1. When do you think the Winter Storm Advisory will go to Watch for weekend.

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  9. Anyone know what the 12z Euro showed for this weekend and next week?

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  10. RC says via FB wind chills Friday minus 40? Has to be a mistake.

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    1. Is this based on the OLD wind Formula (Pre 2002?), because otherwise I don't see how it can be that cold. Not sure what that model is basing on, but common sense says we almost can't get that cold here. You'd have to be about -10 F air temperature with 30 mph. How many times has that happened in Rochester?? Mornings that cold are usually very light winds with lots of radiational cooing.

      Take 0 degrees Air Temperature
      @20 mph -22 New WC vs -39 Old WC
      @30 mph -26 New WC vs -48 Old WC

      Even at -5 Air Temp
      @20 mph -29 New WC vs -46 Old WC
      @30 mph -33 New WC vs -55 Old WC

      Here are the old vs new Wind Chill Charts and Formulas
      http://ggweather.com/windchill.htm

      or click directly on my name


      -10 F with 30 mph would give us -39 (New) WC.

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    2. For RC -- its called ratings to get folks to watch 10 vs. the other stations.

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  11. I am seeing a lot of comments about a storms weekend...I may be wrong but I don't think we r seeing a storm but the coast is? I would think people would have verified if there was such a storm. Just don't want people confused

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    1. I agree with you. The coast should be getting the storm and we are getting a couple clippers but that's just an inch or two here and there and maybe more if there's some lake enhancement.

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  12. Farmington you are correct what that wind chill Friday?

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  13. Are we really getting another storm this weekend?! Wooo hoooo!
    When should we expect watches to go up? Tonight?

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    1. Will probably only be winter storm advisories for our area. Could go to Warning but I doubt it. At least its another storm!

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  14. I don't think its going to be anything significant but you never know. Always prepare for more! Anyone know time-wise when this storm is going to start for us? Looks like sat. night timeframe.

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  15. What storm guys. There is no storm. Just 2 little moisture starved clippers and lake effect. Areas North of the Thruway will see the most. I think advisory levels are likely from Thursday into Sunday. Nothing big. Not sure where all the storm talk is coming from.

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  16. The real storm is for eastern New England. Again. Because they're just so severely lacking in the snow department right now. We'll be hearing about a big northeast storm in the coming days, but rest assured we will not be feeling any of its major impacts. Instead it'll be light to moderate snowfalls from clippers and lake effect. Our much bigger concern through Sunday will be dangerously cold wind chills, although any snow that does happen will be exacerbated by the wind. The next legitimate storm window for us continues to be the middle of next week, pending the closure of lingering model spread.

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  17. KW referred to something Tuesday/ Wednesday as juicy or something to watch etc. is this gulf based moisture this time? Or clipper type?

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  18. Can't believe all of the ice which is forming on gutters -- it's kind of scary walking to your car and you see these long spikes of ice hanging. Though I appreciate the snow -- just would like a little bit of a break from it for a week or two -- so that some of the current snow can melt a little bit. The snow piles are rather high at the corners of the city streets, makes it hard when you have to pull out to see if any cars are coming, let along someone walking. Landscapers will be doing lots of business come spring as private snow plows have no place to put snow except to push it as far back on one's lawn as possible.

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  19. I still think Saturday night into Sunday could give us several inches of snow. The GFS is spitting out 6" right now.

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    1. Lake effect or cold front snow?

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  20. The actually system and then lake effect after that. I still think advisory levels are possible Saturday night into Sunday.

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  21. What is everyone's thoughts on whether or not schools will have to close or delay because of wind chills Friday morning? Someone said if it is -25 or worse then schools are recommend to close?

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  22. That's generally the line. I doubt they'll close Friday. If school was Sunday morning I think they'd close.

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  23. I always thought the line was -15. That was typically cold enough for closures when I was in school. If that's still the case then we'll easily have a slew of closures on Friday.

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    1. I'm a teacher. It is most definitely -25 in Monroe County. At that point, the County Executive asks the districts to close.

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  24. Supposedly it's -25. I guess Maggie Brooke's put something out there to the schools las year when we had the cold temps ad recommended they close at that level.

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  25. I got this from the Spencerport district's website:

    "The Monroe County Health Department developed specific guidelines regarding wind chill factors. When the wind chill drops to 25 degrees below zero or more, we are advised to close. When the wind chill is 16 to 25 degrees below zero, the decision is discretionary, depending on conditions."

    So we'll probably see a few closures on Friday with the wind chill easily below -16. Widespread closures are doubtful but not outside the realm of possibilities. Various point forecasts from around the region have wind chill values getting very close to -25.

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    1. I was very confident schools will be open Friday. But the wunderground automated forecast keeps dropping the low Fri am. It curtently says -5 Air temp with 20 to 30 mph winds, which if verified would easily close the schools.

      At -5, even a 10 mph wind is -22 WC.

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  26. Thanks that's good info. I just read the NWS discussion and there wa no mention of a storm brewing for Tuesday/ Wednesday let alone a juicy one. Is it a ghost at this point or do they have such low confidence at this range they neglect to mention it?

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  27. They haven't even updated the long range part of the discussion since last night. But the storm potential is definitely not a ghost.

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  28. Ok thanks. I hope we do have school Friday...my daughter (1st grade) is worried about missing all the valentine fun they are supposed to have on friday. While I'd love to have a day off from work, seeing my daughter disappointed will be sad. I guess motet nature will decide!

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  29. Wrecked my snowmobile.. spring can come. :(

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  30. Still say we are going to get some good snow Saturday night into Sunday with the clipper which will be pretty strong and lake effect. The GFS is giving us over 6". No-one is talking about that potential except for KW.

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    1. Would agree we still need to hear about potential for a Winter Storm on Saturday into Sunday. Yes we are all focused on the cold, but lets remember some need to prepare for the snow and be ready to shovel -- no matter how cold it is out; even -25. Stacy this morning said "light snow"

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  31. I think everyone is thinking about the cold because that's the focus on the news, or Boston! Lol I know you love hearing about them

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    1. LOL, Boston Boston Boston. Uuggggg!!!!!

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  32. Too much weather to talk about in 2 and a half minutes! Or even 4 minutes, for that matter. We will begin to focus in more on the weekend this evening and tomorrow. We won't see any substantial amounts this weekend, but between this morning's snow, this afternoon's lake effect (2-5" for most), Saturday's snowfall (we'll go with "several inches" right now) and a little lake effect on Sunday, I'm betting many areas will see upwards of 6". Not huge, but that's nothing to sneeze at, especially after putting it on top of the 20" we already have on the ground.

    As far as next Tuesday/Wednesday goes...yeah, we're interested :)

    Stacey

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    1. Thanks Stacey! Always love your insight! :)

      Do you think any schools could be closed tomorrow for wind chills?

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    2. Yes if they are smart particularly those who have kids walk to bus stops or school.

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    3. Parents has been given enough notice about he wind chills -- dress your kids warmly, wait inside til the bus arrives, or if there is a group pick up on your street coordinate with other parents to have a couple of parents in cars there for kids to sit in and wait. Or better yet, parents drive your kids to school that morning, if they walk to school. Some schools have already closed numerous times and have used up or close to using up their allotted snow days. Depending on that -- either winter break is shortended, along with spring break, or like Boston (I know Boston) -- they have already extended the school year til the end of June, and possibly now til after the 4th of July.

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  33. How about wind chills tomorrow morning Stacey?

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    1. Upwards (downwards?) of -30 degrees, obviously when the wind is strongest

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  34. Scott said last night on his forecast that wind chills will be at a dangerous level tomorrow morning.

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  35. Storm for next week does not look like anything big for any area particularly Rochester.

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    1. * Reminder: Don't feed the trolls *

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    2. Just because some posts their opinion as to what a model looks like -- they all of a sudden as labeled a troll. Come on.

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  36. Not a troll 12z GFS storm well tour east so keep hoping for next week and a big storm. Not happening in western NY.

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    1. One model on one run and you can say that? Yeah, a Troll you are!

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  37. One single GFS run shows a whiff and the naysaying starts right on cue. Ignore the previous half dozen runs that showed a good hit, those don't count anymore. I still remember being told to stick a fork in the GHD storm because it was going to whiff way south. Wound up losing the fork under 15 inches of fresh snow. Still a ton of model variance happening plus our resident professionals are interested in the potential. That says all we need to know about our approach to this thing going forward.

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    1. 12z Euro way east too but I guess that is just one run so do not worry.

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  38. CCCC what do you think the wind chill values will be tomorrow morning?

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  39. Nor sure why counties in the south have wind chill warnings when the northern counties have advisories? Thought the cold was coming down from north to south?

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  40. Because Anon 12:12. the relatively warmer water of lake Ontario warms the temperatures slightly near the lake.

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    1. Not sure lake Ontario still still has relatively warmer temperatures though. I think air temps may get colder for all than they are predicting.

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  41. Models give us a good amount of snow Saturday night into Sunday from what I see.

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    1. Define a "good amount". Need to know if shoveling will be needed for some older neighbors that with the cold, it will be difficult for them to do. Just want to start to prepare. Do you see Winter Storm Advisories, Watches, or Warnings going up for this?

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    2. theres no such thing as a winter storm advisory, "winter weather advisory"

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    3. Sorry about that -- not familiar with all of the terminology. do you think we will see any advisories, watches, or warnings as to winter weather?

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  42. Why no mention of polar vortex with this round of extremely cold weather? Just wondering as it was the phrase used allot last year.

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    1. So no one pokes their eye out if they hear PV one more time.

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  43. This would actually be one of the times that "polar vortex" is an accurate term to use.

    I'm starting to think we'll see lake snow advisories or winter weather advisories go up for late Saturday into Sunday. No reason to expect any less the way I (and Snowdog since yesterday ;o) see it. The amount of wind is going to make accurate measurements next to impossible, so don't even try unless you're willing to put in more effort than it's worth. My guess is that we'll have totals of 6-8 inches by late Sunday, including anything we get tonight, but when all is said and done it'll look more like 3 or 4 because more than half of it will be piled into drifts.

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    1. Will we get 6-8 inches overnight Saturday into Sunday, or something similar to last week 2-3 inches on Saturday, and then on Sunday 5-6 inches. What are you seeing CCCC.

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    2. Did you not read his whole comment...? "My guess is that we'll have totals of 6-8 inches by late Sunday, including anything we get tonight, but when all is said and done it'll look more like 3 or 4 because more than half of it will be piled into drifts."

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    3. Boy -- take a chill pill or step outside for a minute to calm down. Just wanted to make sure I was understanding correctly.

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  44. I know it is early but the NWS states that we would be on the Northern fringe of that storm next week. Hopefully it will shift West. We will see.

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  45. 18z gfs way east too

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    1. And guess who gets nailed the hardest on that run...our favorite snowbound New England municipality that clearly hasn't had enough fun yet -_-

      I guarantee that this isn't the end of any big shifts in either direction though. Not even close. For all we know the 00z suite could send this thing up to Milwaukee.

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  46. Geneva schools closed tomorrow there will be more to come

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  47. KW:

    "We're thinking that atmosphere will be so cold aloft & unstable Saturday that there may be a squall line w/ heavy snow, thunder and wind."

    http://i.imgur.com/PcmgCki.gif

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  48. Whiteout conditions here in Ontario, Wayne County right now and radar isn't picking it up as usual. A good 2-3" blowing all over the place. Because of the lack of warming to induce thawing over the past 2 weeks, this is the deepest snowpack I've seen out here in 10 years. I am running out of room to put the snow that I plow.

    Please be safe out there folks and stay warm

    Chris in Ontario

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  49. Nasty up here right now. Legitimate whiteouts all over the place.

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  50. Dave in North HiltonFebruary 12, 2015 at 7:49 PM

    Weve had over 10inches today. Solid 6 this morning, and another 4 inches I just snow blowed. Parkway is almost un travelable. 2-3ft drifts across middle of the road.

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  51. It must me just near the lake. Not much happening here in Gananda. Just flurries. Right now it does not look good for us to get a snowstorm next week. The trend is not our friend. Hopefully it starts moving back West.

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  52. Must be due to global warming.

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  53. I said it numerous times: I wouldn't want to be in sweet spot this far out. Since the models will play Musical chairs for days, I have hopes that it will move closer to us over time.

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  54. I'm just loling myself silly at the 5-6 foot lollipop the NAM has for New Brunswick. And to think it was so well behaved up until now...

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  55. Very snowy in Hamlin today. This afternoon and evenings LES deserved at the very least advisories if not warning for NW Monroe county. Time for a nap I have had much more OT than sleep this past week and a half. The wind alone is enough to keep us busy now with the drifting, but I will also take more snow this weekend.

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  56. I honestly think we can kiss the storm goodbye for next week. The models take it even further South and east. At this point if it were to move back west we would see some movement by the models West. Not seeing that.

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  57. Lake effect snow watches are up for counties bordering lake Ontario. As I said a few days ago the Mets have not been talking about this potential. I don't get it. 6" or more are highly likely.

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  58. Is that going to be from this crazy arctic front that is coming through later Saturday? Also not as cold or windy as I expected. Lots of kids dissapointed im sure lol.

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  59. Chris now in PenfieldFebruary 13, 2015 at 6:26 AM

    Only got down to low single digits…too much lake influence? Cold air obviously drained in because it is -8 F in SYR.

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  60. The front will produce a few inches for all, but then lake effect starts after that through Sunday for counties bordering the lake with 6" or more.

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  61. There is still a chance that the mid week storm trends West. We have seen this many times this winter. In reading the NWS out of several locations they are referring to this possibility that a much further West track is possible. If you look at most of the models now it is pretty much a miss for everyone and is a flat out to sea solution. Picked up about 5" last night in Gananda. Keep it coming. The piles are getting really high. Love it.

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    1. Snowdog do not hold your breathe for this storm. All signs are it will be well SE of Rochester and I hope that is correct. The storm is also not going to be major anyways.

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  62. I'm not holding my breath on the lake effect. I am only a few miles from macedon which is close enough to lake where you would think we would get some lake bands but we haven't seen much all winter from the lake. I guess we shall see.

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  63. The radar seems pretty much useless at this point for LE especially at this temp.

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  64. Lake clouds/flurries kept us insulated overnight and we never dropped below zero. That being said, wind chill values all morning have been -10 to -20°. Sunday will be colder, and much windier, so I would say -20 to -30° is a pretty good bet Sunday, especially through midday. In terms of snow, a quick 1-3" on Saturday afternoon with the arctic front (which actually looks pretty impressive), followed by lake effect snow overnight. I would say lakeshore counties get 3-5/4-6" overnight (roughly).

    Stacey

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    1. For the Rochester Metro what are you looking at for snow overnight Saturday into Sunday -- amount?

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  65. ALL the meteorologists blew the wind chill and temperature calls this morning. The hype/sky is falling dangerous wind chill values were a joke. That is why school districts should never close the night before. Often times the weather people over hype things and end up wrong. Not surprised you would think the professionals would understand the lake impact on temperatures and not be off by at least 10 degrees.

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    1. I don't believe we blew it. Yesterday morning I was saying -5 to -15° for northern counties, and -10 to -20° for south of the Thruway. That's pretty darn close to where we are. Current wind chill at KROC: -15°.

      Stacey

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    2. I'm sorry, -1° at KROC with a -18° wind chill at 8am.

      Stacey

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    3. Stacey, you guys continue to do great work, and we all (well, most of us) appreciate it; especially finding time to update this blog! Thank you :)

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    4. Anon @756 is the troll that claims everything is being hyped, when indeed it is not!! News 8 was right on target about this!!!! This trollers behavior is precisely why News 8 needs to block anonymous posters so they can be held to a higher standard of conduct. I will happily get a user ID when you block Anons.

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    5. Don't mind the criticism Stacey. You were right on. Everyone wondered if it might be a couple degrees colder and a little windier this morning. That didn't happen. But that's weather. It was nothing crazy this morning. But as it was we woke up to temperatures right around 0, and wind chills right around -15. The forecasts weren't hype. -15 WC is still quite cold. People want to know that. Anon 7:56 is talking like it was 10 degrees this morning.

      I am curious how cold it actually gets Sunday. But if it climbs all the way to 5 degrees, I won't chastise the local mets for a well deserved wind chill warning. That's part of what makes weather fun. The subtle changes that cause actual weather to differ from forecast. And boy does the big lake lead to subtle shifts, and occasionally not so subtle results.. I'd much rather live here than some boring weather place. I mean really. Who would want to live somewhere like Sand Diego. Where's the fun in that. Today will be 70 degrees today. 25% chance of a cloud.

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    6. That lake does some funny/interesting/awesome/humbling things to our weather and meteorologists, but you are absolutely right, I wouldn't have it any other way! I'll take the criticism when it's deserved :)

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  66. Well maybe you did not Stacey but last night all still had minus 20 to minus 25 this morning. All had air temperatures below zero and this morning at 6:00am it was 7 in the city. It is okay just stating the facts. The hype was way out of control for at least 3 days. We have had hasher weather this winter alone.

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    1. Yes, we've been colder this winter, but I believe this is the coldest wind chill we've had (I could be wrong). That doesn't mean nearly -20 WC is ok. I think most would agree it's pretty darn cold! Just because we've had a 1.5 foot snowstorm already this winter doesn't mean a 12" storm isn't a big deal. I believe the "hype" had been the several rounds of brutal cold coming our way, and the emphasis has always been on Sunday being the harsher of the 2 days. I freely admit when I/we are wrong. We are meteorologists predicting the future to HELP the public prepare and stay safe. Sometimes the future doesn't become a reality. But when we are right, you can bet I'm going to fight for that win, too! :)

      Stacey

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    2. You all do great Stacey! Meteorologists like you, Scott and Matt are trying to predict the future and do a really good job of it! I find it funny when people rip on you for not being perfect. I would rather you be cautious and have us prepare for worse then if it's better it's not as bad. Much better than getting caught off guard! Keep up the great work!

      Jeff in Chili

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  67. Stacy -- noticed you say 3-4/5-6 for overnight on Saturday for Lakeshore Counties. What is your feeling for Rochester Metro. Just wondering. Thanks...Hannah Rochester

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    1. I can see Rochester metro getting 3-4"+, especially with the strong winds blowing in. That'll push the snow further inland. Not a big snow, and most actual lake effect happening late evening/overnight.

      Stacey

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    2. Thanks Stacy. We have some older neighbors and just wanted to plan to help shovel their driveway and pathways, if needed. Appreciate it.

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  68. The Anon above is probably upset becasue schools were not closed. The METS on channel 8 do a terrific job. Thanks Stacey for updating the blog so often. It is appreciated. Do not look anything into the criticism. Have a great day.

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  69. Stacey -- you do a GREAT job!!!!!!! Really.

    Ideas (anyone) about snow on Sunday morning. I'm a church organist and have to get to work up 390 to the city then. I know it will be cold, but will it be nasty snow or just take your time snow?

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    1. Remember, with how cold the temps are, and will be, salt is not as effective, so with even just a little snow, you'll want to take your time!

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  70. As many of you know this weekend is the 1 year anniversary of my wife passing away. Hopefully after this week I may be able to make it on here more often. Thanks for all of you who have thought about me and my situation often and kept me in your prayers.

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    1. Hopefully time continues to patch those wounds :)

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    2. I can't imagine what it must be like. I do always enjoy your posts Charles.

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  71. This moondust caked into the roadways and parking lots is ridiculously slippery. I almost fell a few times on the way to my car coming back home for lunch. Several accidents this morning despite not much falling snow. Sunday morning will likely have similar difficulties.

    I'm normally not gung-ho on lake effect events with a short fetch and crappy snow growth, but it's tough to argue against the mesoscale models consistently spreading 6+ inches across the lakeshore counties. It's also tough to argue against the lake snow watch. Next week's storm potential is far from dead, especially with the GFS having jumped 200 miles between runs and the ensembles still exhibiting a ton of spread. We've seen this happen over and over again this winter, there's simply way too much chaos in our continent's atmosphere right now for the models to resolve anything reliably outside of 2 or 3 days. That's the tradeoff you get when the pattern is this active...lots of stuff to track but it's all so difficult to predict.

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  72. Amen CCCC, and love the Condescending Wonka pic! I feel like that is a fitting response to some of the trolls on this blog...

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  73. Yet another Blizzard for New England. Wow!!! Not as much snow but fierce winds.

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  74. Winter storm warnings just went up for us. Thats new. 6-12 or more. Cool.

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    1. Yeah I'm sure the people with 2 feet of snow on their roofs and ice dams will enjoy that. But hey, cool for you I guess.

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    2. Agreed with anon. It's cool to root for more snow I guess but it's to the point where it's a hazard for homes, businesses and not to mention the huge snow drifts blocking visibility making turns onto streets.

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    3. Bring it on. More nsow the better.

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    4. You are an idiot

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    5. Roof collapses and ice dams are going to happen one way or another. Snowdog saying bring it on will do nothing to make it any worse. He could wish for three feet of freezing rain, it still wouldn't affect anything. Just accept whatever happens, it's the only rational option.

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  75. It states shoreline communities which is LE mainly. Will the 6-12 travel much past 104 or do you guys think a lot stays north of the city and 104?

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    1. Good question would like to know also. What do people think?

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  76. The warning extends all the way down to the northern Finger Lakes, where less snow will fall but blowing and drifting will still be significant. It appears that the 6-12 applies to the entirety of the shoreline counties, closer to 6 south of the Thruway and closer to 12 along and north of 104. Ontario, Livingston, Genesee and Wyoming Counties are pegged for 3-7. It's a winter storm warning instead of a lake effect snow warning because the snow will be occurring due to a mixture of synoptic and lake effect features, starting in earnest with a very intense squall line tomorrow afternoon. This won't be the biggest storm of the season to date by raw numbers, but in my view it will be the most severe due to the combination of snow, wind and brutal cold.

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    1. What do you see for Rochester Metro?

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    2. The Rochester metro extends from near the Thruway up to the shoreline, so...6-12. Highest north and lowest south.

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  77. Agreed. I'm not an alarmist but the kids and I are going to get groceries tonight instead of the usual Saturday or Sunday because I don't want to take them out in that kind of wind/cold. It's bad enough my wife has to drive to Newark from Farmington Saturday and Sunday. I love the snow, sh hates it. I guess people don't go out to eat as much when it is snowing and cold!

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  78. Don't look now, but our storm potential for next week is making a rousing comeback...

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  79. Don't like to toot my own horn but I think it was me who was talking sense into Snowdog to wait and see. Of course I have no scientific basis behind it, I just choose to believe there is hope for these things instead of writing the entire thing off with one botched model run 3-4 days out!

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  80. CCC which models shows this The GFS has trended back North and West but still a miss. The biggest impact will be New England yet again.

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    1. That's just it though...the GFS runs before 18z missed by hundreds of miles. The 18z run brings significant snow back into eastern NY state, not to mention all other models moved NW and the ensembles have more amped solutions among them than before. It's not a comeback that brings heavy snow to us, but it's still a comeback that may very well continue.

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  81. I also think the 12" plus for this event will be further south than 104 due to the winds carrying it further inland.

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  82. The EURO still has it way South and East and OTS. Next weeks system.

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  83. The money zone for lake snow in strong wind normally occurs further inland because of shear, but in this case we're going to have shallow clouds and therefore less shearing influence. The sweet spot might not be right along the lake but I don't think it'll be south of 104 either...maybe slightly inland of the lake down to just north of downtown.

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  84. Also any concerns about the ice forming at the north side of the lake are unfounded IMO. It's almost entirely composed of a thin sheet that will easily disperse in the strong wind.

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